I couldn't find his ZIPS.

 

I think he will hit no more then 14 HR 58 RBI 19BB 49 RBI .226 AVG

 

His value will be in his glove. I don't think the Marlins are going to outslug the majority of the NL teams so good defense will be needed to keep games close and to keep pitchers out of trouble.

If his value is in his glove it will be an imposter wearing that uniform with "McPherson" on the back. He's never been known as anything but an adequate defensive third baseman, and anyone who says otherwise doesn't have even a cursory understanding of who we picked up.

 

Or perhaps that's damning with feint praise, suggesting his bat will be so bad it will make his glove look good. I hope not.

 

Chicks dig the long ball (a metaphor for fans generally in case someone didn't get it). He's here to provide a bat first and defense second, understanding of course anything approaching even league average play next to Hanley will be an improvement over last season. But his glove has never been anything special, not in the minors nor at the major league level.

 

We're going to figure out pretty quickly how far along McPherson is with his rehab. I'm fairly optimistic that absent another injury, he is the Marlins 3rd baseman at some point in the season, but we may have to wait until June or July to see what he's capable of going forward. It will be interesting to see if he can handle 300+ at bats in his return from back surgery (and before that hip problems) and what he does with them, but don't fool yourself, he's not here to play Gold Glove third base, he's here because a few years ago he was a can't miss prospect and he's worth a look see.

 

It was a no-brainer signing with potentially tremendous upside and with 2008 shaping up the way it is, with almost *no* down side. Personally I'm rooting for him like crazy because he seems to have the "right stuff", but I'm not deluding myself into thinking he's something that he's not.

We're going to figure out pretty quickly how far along McPherson is with his rehab. I fairly optimistic that absent another injury, he is the Marlins 3rd baseman at some point in the season, but we may have to wait until June or July to see what he's capable of going forward. It will be interesting to see if he can handle 300+ at bats in his return from back surgery (and before that hip problems) and what he does with them

I think he directly effects Ugglas immediate future as well. Castillo's main position is 2B and we have him under control for a few seasons. Our top hitting prospect in the minors is Coghlan (2B), and he should be ready in 1-2 seasons. Those two seem like a quality stopgap with some upside/longterm situation to me. Considering Dan is going to get a monstrous arbitration raise based on his power numbers at 2B and that he more likely than not does not fit into the longterm plans of the organization as a compliment to Hanley/Maybin/Hermida, if McPherson shows he can even OPS .750 and play 4-5 games a week, I see Uggla gone at the break to the highest bidder and subsequently moving Castillo over to 2B. You can say the same thing with Hammer/Jacobs and giving LF to Cody/Carroll/Jai in August/September.

We're going to figure out pretty quickly how far along McPherson is with his rehab. I fairly optimistic that absent another injury, he is the Marlins 3rd baseman at some point in the season, but we may have to wait until June or July to see what he's capable of going forward. It will be interesting to see if he can handle 300+ at bats in his return from back surgery (and before that hip problems) and what he does with them

I think he directly effects Ugglas immediate future as well. Castillo's main position is 2B and we have him under control for a few seasons. Our top hitting prospect in the minors is Coghlan (2B), and he should be ready in 1-2 seasons. Those two seem like a quality stopgap with some upside/longterm situation to me. Considering Dan is going to get a monstrous arbitration raise based on his power numbers at 2B and that he more likely than not does not fit into the longterm plans of the organization as a compliment to Hanley/Maybin/Hermida, if McPherson shows he can even OPS .750 and play 4-5 games a week, I see Uggla gone at the break to the highest bidder and subsequently moving Castillo over to 2B. You can say the same thing with Hammer/Jacobs and giving LF to Cody/Carroll/Jai in August/September.

 

I disagree. First of all, Coghlan is far from a can't miss prospect. I'm hoping for the best with him, but I'm not ready to proclaim him our future just yet. Plus, from what I have read, his glove isn't any better than Uggla's. Second of all, we can afford Dan Uggla. We have no payroll what so ever. Our highest paid players are a Journey man pitcher (Hendrickson), a washed up veteran (Gonzo), and a closer that will probably be our best trade bait at some point this year (Gregg). Take all of those salaries off of the books, and you are at the bare minimum. What can Uggla get next year? 4-6 million? Maybe less? I know that Hanley will get a nice raise too, as will Willy, and a couple of others, but we should still be able to afford them.

Considering Utley made 4.5m in his first arb year, and he's been OPSing 100 points higher than Uggla through their first two seasons, I think it's safe to say Uggla probably makes around 2-3m unless he blows up this year and puts up a 900 OPS like Utley. I'm really not sure who else to look at for a comparable...any other .800 OPS+ 2b I can think of is either too old or too young (in terms of service) to compare to. (EDIT: Just remember Cano just recently signed a contract, and he's making 3m his first arb year. Brian Roberts (While Cano's ofcoarse younger, Uggla, Utley, and Roberts will all hit their first arb at 29) made 3m, thanks to OPSing 900 before his first year, but his years before that were worse than ugglas. What Phillips gets in Arbitration will be interesting "Second baseman Brandon Phillips is the only Reds player left in arbitration. Phillips asked for $4.2 million, and the Reds countered with a $2.7 million offer." That doesn't bode to well for us, Uggla will probably get around what Phillips gets.)

 

Also, to 19braves77, projection formulas like ZIPS is heavily weighted by the previous year stats. Since McPherson didn't playing last season, it's again not very good. This is one of the times were you can't really look at stats. You can look at one he could have done in 2007, but again that's not very good (His ZIPs for 2007 was .263/.323/.503 with 21 HR in 380 AB, btw).

Just got an email back from the folks at Cot's and hats off to Nny who was right about McPherson's service time.

 

It is 2.164 years, not 1.164. they are updating their site. :thumbup

I disagree. First of all, Coghlan is far from a can't miss prospect. I'm hoping for the best with him, but I'm not ready to proclaim him our future just yet. Plus, from what I have read, his glove isn't any better than Uggla's. Second of all, we can afford Dan Uggla. We have no payroll what so ever. Our highest paid players are a Journey man pitcher (Hendrickson), a washed up veteran (Gonzo), and a closer that will probably be our best trade bait at some point this year (Gregg). Take all of those salaries off of the books, and you are at the bare minimum. What can Uggla get next year? 4-6 million? Maybe less? I know that Hanley will get a nice raise too, as will Willy, and a couple of others, but we should still be able to afford them.

Coghlan is very likely to pan out. Players with that kind of contact rate and BB/K are as safe as they get and they just need some time to work on pitch recognition of better offspeed pitches as they progress up the minors. I'm hopeful it will be by 09, but probably 10 is more realistic. Uggla will make $3.5-4 next year. We could afford him, but he's not worth it longterm because he's really an average 2B that is all or nothing with the extra base hits, and he doesn't fit into the (how I see it) emerging payroll structure of the organization*. Who cares about Hendrickson, Gonzalez, and Gregg, they are all irrelevant to the longterm prospects of this organization besides being trade bait. My eye is on 2010 when all the pitchers are MLB ready, Maybin has a few more years to develop, and we need to keep payroll down, because of our unique stadium situation and to give Hanley record breaking arbitration numbers. Coghlan fits into this structure, and so does Castillo as a stopgap. Uggla does not monetarily. (And I would say performance also, because I can't see him maintaining a .480 slugging percentage batting sub .250 again. Which is another reason why I want to trade him because I don't want him to fall apart and then get nothing). The best thing the team can do is move Uggla and keep stockpiling pitchers or find a stud young catcher in a package (i.e., St. Louis with Anderson since they just signed Molina and have no middle infield). Getting back to the point, god willingly McPherson shows some potential and warrants consistent AB, because if that happens we have no need for Uggla immediately and long term. He would be a luxury if we were a contender, but we are not. We have a worthy stopgap and an emerging longterm option and that's all that matters.

 

 

* (side note, your 'bare minimum' on keeping everyone creates arbitration for Hanley, Castillo, McPherson, Amezaga, Johnson (his service time still accrues since he was injured while in the MLB roster right?), Hermida, Jacobs, Kensing (assuming he spends most of his time on the MLB team this year), Mitre, Olsen, Ross, Uggla, and Willingham (this is recognizing Gregg is going to be trade in July, but add him if you don't agree); and a MLB contract for A. Miller. That is going to add up real quick, even with nominal gains for many in that group. Thinking rationally, Hanley, Hermida, one of Hammer/Jacobs for 1B, and Johnson are the only locks to being picked up. You'd imagine if Anibal comes back strong, Johnson is healthy, Volstad is ready, and one of Nolasco/Vanden Hurk/Gaby Hernandez can maintain the 5th slot in the rotation, Olsen becomes expendable for salary and longterm reasons. We're going to start trading young pitching at some point, and he seems like the first to go. I find this very likely. Likewise for Mitre and Kensing, who would each not win bullpen slots with the stuff we have in the pen and coming up, they'll be gone as the organization moves on to cheaper/better/longterm options. This leaves Cody and Amezaga as bench role players, who I imagine are both trade bait at the deadline this year as the organization determines if Carroll/Jai has a longterm place in LF and if Andino can slot nicely into the super infield sub roll. This comes full circle back to the point of the thread of McPherson, Castillo, and Uggla all being intertwined. If Dallas can show potential at 3B, Castillo (and Cantu) have no business playing there at all while we cross our fingers and hope Dallas can lock down that position for the next couple of years. The subsequent logical move would then be to either move Castillo, or move Uggla, as we would not need both of them, because why pay two arbitrations if you don't have to. If Coghlan is penciled into 2B in 2 years, which you have to imagine the organization thinks (I certainly do), why pay Dan the cash when you have a sufficient bridge to Coghlan with Castiilo (and to a lesser extent Andino), and if you think of it in the negative, if Coghlan doesn't pan out, Uggla will certainly not be worth his 5th and 6th year arbitration/free agency money to keep him around. Uggla just flat out, does not figure into the longterm plans).

 

And just because this turned into a way longer post than I anticipated, my opinion of 2008 is two things. (1) No serious injuries. (2) No serious performance regression from any important player. Here is how I would set up the franchise, using internal options. Maybe seeing it as a depth chart would get my point/idea across better. "/" represents platoons. Parenthesis represent around the trade deadline.

 

2008

 

C - Rabelo/Treanor

1B - Hammer or Jacobs

2B - Uggla (Castillo)

SS - Hanley

3B - McPherson/Castillo (McPherson)

LF - Gonzalez (Cody/Carroll/Jai)

CF - Cody/Carroll/Amezaga (Maybin)

RF - Hermida

B - Rabelo/Treanor, McPherson/Castillo, Cody/Carroll, Cantu, Amezaga (Andino, Jai)

SP - Olsen, Mitre, Hendrickson, A. Miller, Nolasco (Volstad, Anibal, G. Hernandez)

BP - Gregg, Lindstrom, J. Miller, Gardner, Tank, Pinto, Kensing (Nolasco, Cruz, Vanden Hurk/Owens)

Deadline or earlier trades - Hammer or Jacobs, Uggla, Gregg, Mitre, Hendrickson, J. Miller, Gardner, maybe Cody, Amezaga, Cantu

Postseason trades - Olsen, Rabelo or Treanor, Cody, Amezaga, Kensing, Cantu (understandably if some of these guys even have trade value)

 

2009 (only arbitration Hammer or Jacobs, Castillo, Hanley, McPherson, Hermida, Johnson, and Treanor if he stays; MLB contract for Miller. There is also pending litigation with Anibal that could give him service time (if this has been settled I missed it), but I suspect the Marlins will win. This team costs approx $22-25 million. Which seems about the level of payroll this organization is comfortable with. Starting to see why it makes sense to move sooner rather than later Uggla).

 

C - Somebody Else (procured in the above trades)

1B - Hammer or Jacobs

2B - Castillo

SS - Hanley

3B - McPherson

LF - Carroll/Jai/Cheap Veteran FA or someone brought in with trades

CF - Maybin

RF - Hermida

B - Rabelo or Treanor, other 2 OF in LF platoon, Andino, FA Bat/someone brought in with trades

SP - A. Miller, Anibal, Volstad, Johnson, G. Hernandez/Trahern

BP - Lindstrom, Cruz, Nolasco, Vanden Hurk, Owens, Tank, Pinto

 

2010 - Then it becomes insane, when some of Sinkbiel/Tucker/Thompson/Coghlan/G. Sanchez/Cousins/C. Martinez/H. Garcia/etc, and whatever we get in the next wave of trades that is bound to happen within the next calendar year, are ready to contribute and added to 25 guys above. In a best case scenario, Coghlan and G. Sanchez take over the right side of the infield, and the organization is able to get a young 3B in one of the trades . That would shave at least $8-10 off 2010 payroll, and the team would resemble the 07 DBacks in age and experience, except with 3 monsters with a few years of MLB experience (Hanley, Hermida, Maybin) and a staff 1-12 that is under 26 years of age and who all throw fire.

 

One line point - If McPherson can play at all, they should trade Uggla.

Lou you do understand Castillo already has four years of service time don't you? And Uggla just two.

 

It "feels" like you are so determined to trade away Uggla at any cost (you are after all willing to take whatever is offered at the break if I understand your previous posts on the subject, regardless of position of the player acquired) that you can't see anything but that. And maybe I read another one of your posts wrong but you want to trade as many as ten players at the break (and if it was only nine don't call me a liar) and totally gut the team, all for prospects, ignoring for a moment the effect that would have on attempting to reattach fans to the team or ticket sales at the new stadium you say is behind your economic theory and heaping even more national scorn on the franchise, while potentially impacting the health and well being of the young players thrown to the wolves as replacements.

 

I think it's a mistake to even suggest that course of action.

 

Now I could be wrong, but when I read "trade Uggla" in almost every post since I can't remember when it seems like that's all you care about regardless of anything else. You're already penciling in Coghlan and he's in A ball. Maybe you should look at the guy we just signed and who this thread is about, Dallas McPherson, another can't miss "prospect". There's a lesson there about putting the cart before the horse. When Coghlan comes into camp and pushes Uggla out of a job, that's when he's expendable and not until. You don't give up 30 homers and fifty doubles from a second baseman until someone better comes along. If Uggla gets a solo hit more than 2007 every thirty at bats he's a .275 hitter. That's about one hit a week over the season. You can disagree but that seems to me to be an achievable number.

 

One hit a week Lou.

 

And isn't a fifth year third baseman in Castillo going to probably earn as much as a third year (service time) Uggla with 25 homers and probably 20 doubles less, just based on how long he's been in the league? If Castillo goes to arbitration with Marlins next fall (highly unlikely in my book) he's pretty much guaranteed at least $3 million, maybe more. Do you think it's really worth paying him $3 mill and Uggla $4 mill, maybe, and lose all that production just so you have a stand-in until Coghlan maybe makes it in 2010?

 

I also think your core belief is faulty, which is Uggla can't get better. You've been down on Uggla since the day we acquired him. Let's see if he learned from his mistakes last season and whether Presley continues to change his approach at the plate. We did after all, see it at the end of the season, Uggla attempting to quiet his bat and hitting to the opposite field. Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

Maybe he gets better this season, or maybe he doesn't. But at the very least you have to give the guy the chance to succeed. Let's see where he is at the end of the season.

 

No one knows after a year and a half off if McPherson can even play anymore and yet you have him penciled at third for two years. Don't get me wrong, I hope he's that well. I always root for the underdog, I admit it. but this plan of yours needs work, a lot of work if you're counting on McPherson and Castillo being here and contributing at anything approaching a major league level in both 2008 and 2009 without seeing either one of them play. Or for that matter that the franchise, now in a season ticket selling mode because of the new stadium and more revenue sharing/ancilliary revenues coming in can't afford to pay Uggla $4 million but they can afford to pay Castillo $3 million in arbitration. They can afford $22-25 million, but they can't afford $23-26 million?

 

Trade Uggla. Trade Uggla. Gotta trade Uggla. Lou, we get it.

 

You could be right Lou, really, I could be seeing things 100% wrong, but I reserve the right to disagree (in a friendly way) until proven wrong. And if you're right I'll say you were.

 

I have no problem with that.

I couldn't find his ZIPS.

 

I think he will hit no more then 14 HR 58 RBI 19BB 49 RBI .226 AVG

 

His value will be in his glove. I don't think the Marlins are going to outslug the majority of the NL teams so good defense will be needed to keep games close and to keep pitchers out of trouble.

McPherson's ZIPS:

10 HR 32 RBI 18 BB .237 AVG 228 AB, or perhaps more importantly: .237/.297/.447 Avg/Obp/Slg & 18:83 BB/K

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/...ngeheim_angels/

Lou you do understand Castillo already has four years of service time don't you? And Uggla just two.

 

It "feels" like you are so determined to trade away Uggla at any cost (you are after all willing to take whatever is offered at the break if I understand your previous posts on the subject, regardless of position of the player acquired) that you can't see anything but that. And maybe I read another one of your posts wrong but you want to trade as many as ten players at the break (and if it was only nine don't call me a liar) and totally gut the team, all for prospects, ignoring for a moment the effect that would have on attempting to reattach fans to the team or ticket sales at the new stadium you say is behind your economic theory and heaping even more national scorn on the franchise, while potentially impacting the health and well being of the young players thrown to the wolves as replacements.

 

I think it's a mistake to even suggest that course of action.

 

Now I could be wrong, but when I read "trade Uggla" in almost every post since I can't remember when it seems like that's all you care about regardless of anything else. You're already penciling in Coghlan and he's in A ball. Maybe you should look at the guy we just signed and who this thread is about, Dallas McPherson, another can't miss "prospect". There's a lesson there about putting the cart before the horse. When Coghlan comes into camp and pushes Uggla out of a job, that's when he's expendable and not until. You don't give up 30 homers and fifty doubles from a second baseman until someone better comes along. If Uggla gets a solo hit more than 2007 every thirty at bats he's a .275 hitter. That's about one hit a week over the season. You can disagree but that seems to me to be an achievable number.

 

One hit a week Lou.

 

And isn't a fifth year third baseman in Castillo going to probably earn as much as a third year (service time) Uggla with 25 homers and probably 20 doubles less, just based on how long he's been in the league? If Castillo goes to arbitration with Marlins next fall (highly unlikely in my book) he's pretty much guaranteed at least $3 million, maybe more. Do you think it's really worth paying him $3 mill and Uggla $4 mill, maybe, and lose all that production just so you have a stand-in until Coghlan maybe makes it in 2010?

 

I also think your core belief is faulty, which is Uggla can't get better. You've been down on Uggla since the day we acquired him. Let's see if he learned from his mistakes last season and whether Presley continues to change his approach at the plate. We did after all, see it at the end of the season, Uggla attempting to quiet his bat and hitting to the opposite field. Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

Maybe he gets better this season, or maybe he doesn't. But at the very least you have to give the guy the chance to succeed. Let's see where he is at the end of the season.

 

No one knows after a year and a half off if McPherson can even play anymore and yet you have him penciled at third for two years. Don't get me wrong, I hope he's that well. I always root for the underdog, I admit it. but this plan of yours needs work, a lot of work if you're counting on McPherson and Castillo being here and contributing at anything approaching a major league level in both 2008 and 2009 without seeing either one of them play. Or for that matter that the franchise, now in a season ticket selling mode because of the new stadium and more revenue sharing/ancilliary revenues coming in can't afford to pay Uggla $4 million but they can afford to pay Castillo $3 million in arbitration. They can afford $22-25 million, but they can't afford $23-26 million?

 

Trade Uggla. Trade Uggla. Gotta trade Uggla. Lou, we get it.

 

You could be right Lou, really, I could be seeing things 100% wrong, but I reserve the right to disagree (in a friendly way) until proven wrong. And if you're right I'll say you were.

 

I have no problem with that.

I understand Castillo's service time, he's going to make a lot less than Uggla. What's the OPS gap, 140? Some extra years of service time aren't bridging that to $ 1 mil gap. Also you are missing a point with your - they can afford 22-25, but not 23-26. Thats already without one of Hammer and Jacobs, Olsen, and the other players I listed. Am I to assume you concede we're going to "blow up the team by moving up to 10 players" by agreeing to those general salary numbers, and the only one you take issue with, is Uggla? Because if so, I think your whole point about 'impacting fans,' 'stadium, 'economic theory,' and 'ticket sales' is blown out the window. The team's going to have a huge roster turnover of a lot of guys that have been with the club for awhile to get to that salary threshold (and I think that is a very realistic salary threshold). Keeping Uggla is pretty irrelevant in this manner. It ain't changing peoples minds of this franchise. No player does that down here, and that's been proven time and again. When the city/county/state/loria figure out how to plop a stadium on the Orange Bowl site, and then sign Hanley for 7, that's the event that will reattach the fan base.

 

You also sort of missed the point with the plan. The whole idea was "if McPherson can show anything, we can trade Uggla." I attempted to push this point across multiple times in the post, like when I wrote at the end, "One line point - If McPherson can play at all, they should trade Uggla," but maybe I needed to be more emphatic at the start to avoid confusuin. It's really easy to follow. If Dallas can play, we have cheaper stopgap options and the best hitting prospect in our system not named Maybin, at the 2B position. Dan doesn't fit into the longterm salary blueprint of this franchise (more on this below). Therefore, the best course of action if McPherson shows any any any sort of potential, is to trade Uggla (which you harped on this for a second, but it's not like we'd ever give him away. Of course you'd move him whenever the right deal presents itself. I have a hard time believing a guy 3 years from FA and his offensive numbers wouldn't create interest), allow McPherson to perhaps develop, lowball 2B with the stopgap options, and allow Coghlan (or I suppose Andino) take over 2B internally in 2010. This really has nothing to do with Uggla improving, or not (even though I do think he is peaking as a low .800 OPSing guy and suspect he dips into the mid-upper 700s this year). The fact is, looking at how much we can spend on the team, how little our pitchers are going to cost because they are club controlled, and how much Hanley is going to start costing next year, there are only so many dollars left to be thrown around. Hermida is a lock. You'd figure one of Hammer/Jacobs is a lock at 1B for at least 09 because we don't really have a good internal option. So then once you cut through all the crap of what we have and don't, it boils down to do you keep Uggla and pay him serious arbitration money for an additional year when he is basically not going to be around 2 years down the road, with the added knowledge that you already have stopgaps and a solid prospect in the wings? This adds up to me.

I disagree. First of all, Coghlan is far from a can't miss prospect. I'm hoping for the best with him, but I'm not ready to proclaim him our future just yet. Plus, from what I have read, his glove isn't any better than Uggla's. Second of all, we can afford Dan Uggla. We have no payroll what so ever. Our highest paid players are a Journey man pitcher (Hendrickson), a washed up veteran (Gonzo), and a closer that will probably be our best trade bait at some point this year (Gregg). Take all of those salaries off of the books, and you are at the bare minimum. What can Uggla get next year? 4-6 million? Maybe less? I know that Hanley will get a nice raise too, as will Willy, and a couple of others, but we should still be able to afford them.

Coghlan is very likely to pan out. Players with that kind of contact rate and BB/K are as safe as they get and they just need some time to work on pitch recognition of better offspeed pitches as they progress up the minors. I'm hopeful it will be by 09, but probably 10 is more realistic. Uggla will make $3.5-4 next year. We could afford him, but he's not worth it longterm because he's really an average 2B that is all or nothing with the extra base hits, and he doesn't fit into the (how I see it) emerging payroll structure of the organization*. Who cares about Hendrickson, Gonzalez, and Gregg, they are all irrelevant to the longterm prospects of this organization besides being trade bait. My eye is on 2010 when all the pitchers are MLB ready, Maybin has a few more years to develop, and we need to keep payroll down, because of our unique stadium situation and to give Hanley record breaking arbitration numbers. Coghlan fits into this structure, and so does Castillo as a stopgap. Uggla does not monetarily. (And I would say performance also, because I can't see him maintaining a .480 slugging percentage batting sub .250 again. Which is another reason why I want to trade him because I don't want him to fall apart and then get nothing). The best thing the team can do is move Uggla and keep stockpiling pitchers or find a stud young catcher in a package (i.e., St. Louis with Anderson since they just signed Molina and have no middle infield). Getting back to the point, god willingly McPherson shows some potential and warrants consistent AB, because if that happens we have no need for Uggla immediately and long term. He would be a luxury if we were a contender, but we are not. We have a worthy stopgap and an emerging longterm option and that's all that matters.

 

 

* (side note, your 'bare minimum' on keeping everyone creates arbitration for Hanley, Castillo, McPherson, Amezaga, Johnson (his service time still accrues since he was injured while in the MLB roster right?), Hermida, Jacobs, Kensing (assuming he spends most of his time on the MLB team this year), Mitre, Olsen, Ross, Uggla, and Willingham (this is recognizing Gregg is going to be trade in July, but add him if you don't agree); and a MLB contract for A. Miller. That is going to add up real quick, even with nominal gains for many in that group. Thinking rationally, Hanley, Hermida, one of Hammer/Jacobs for 1B, and Johnson are the only locks to being picked up. You'd imagine if Anibal comes back strong, Johnson is healthy, Volstad is ready, and one of Nolasco/Vanden Hurk/Gaby Hernandez can maintain the 5th slot in the rotation, Olsen becomes expendable for salary and longterm reasons. We're going to start trading young pitching at some point, and he seems like the first to go. I find this very likely. Likewise for Mitre and Kensing, who would each not win bullpen slots with the stuff we have in the pen and coming up, they'll be gone as the organization moves on to cheaper/better/longterm options. This leaves Cody and Amezaga as bench role players, who I imagine are both trade bait at the deadline this year as the organization determines if Carroll/Jai has a longterm place in LF and if Andino can slot nicely into the super infield sub roll. This comes full circle back to the point of the thread of McPherson, Castillo, and Uggla all being intertwined. If Dallas can show potential at 3B, Castillo (and Cantu) have no business playing there at all while we cross our fingers and hope Dallas can lock down that position for the next couple of years. The subsequent logical move would then be to either move Castillo, or move Uggla, as we would not need both of them, because why pay two arbitrations if you don't have to. If Coghlan is penciled into 2B in 2 years, which you have to imagine the organization thinks (I certainly do), why pay Dan the cash when you have a sufficient bridge to Coghlan with Castiilo (and to a lesser extent Andino), and if you think of it in the negative, if Coghlan doesn't pan out, Uggla will certainly not be worth his 5th and 6th year arbitration/free agency money to keep him around. Uggla just flat out, does not figure into the longterm plans).

 

And just because this turned into a way longer post than I anticipated, my opinion of 2008 is two things. (1) No serious injuries. (2) No serious performance regression from any important player. Here is how I would set up the franchise, using internal options. Maybe seeing it as a depth chart would get my point/idea across better. "/" represents platoons. Parenthesis represent around the trade deadline.

 

2008

 

C - Rabelo/Treanor

1B - Hammer or Jacobs

2B - Uggla (Castillo)

SS - Hanley

3B - McPherson/Castillo (McPherson)

LF - Gonzalez (Cody/Carroll/Jai)

CF - Cody/Carroll/Amezaga (Maybin)

RF - Hermida

B - Rabelo/Treanor, McPherson/Castillo, Cody/Carroll, Cantu, Amezaga (Andino, Jai)

SP - Olsen, Mitre, Hendrickson, A. Miller, Nolasco (Volstad, Anibal, G. Hernandez)

BP - Gregg, Lindstrom, J. Miller, Gardner, Tank, Pinto, Kensing (Nolasco, Cruz, Vanden Hurk/Owens)

Deadline or earlier trades - Hammer or Jacobs, Uggla, Gregg, Mitre, Hendrickson, J. Miller, Gardner, maybe Cody, Amezaga, Cantu

Postseason trades - Olsen, Rabelo or Treanor, Cody, Amezaga, Kensing, Cantu (understandably if some of these guys even have trade value)

 

2009 (only arbitration Hammer or Jacobs, Castillo, Hanley, McPherson, Hermida, Johnson, and Treanor if he stays; MLB contract for Miller. There is also pending litigation with Anibal that could give him service time (if this has been settled I missed it), but I suspect the Marlins will win. This team costs approx $22-25 million. Which seems about the level of payroll this organization is comfortable with. Starting to see why it makes sense to move sooner rather than later Uggla).

 

C - Somebody Else (procured in the above trades)

1B - Hammer or Jacobs

2B - Castillo

SS - Hanley

3B - McPherson

LF - Carroll/Jai/Cheap Veteran FA or someone brought in with trades

CF - Maybin

RF - Hermida

B - Rabelo or Treanor, other 2 OF in LF platoon, Andino, FA Bat/someone brought in with trades

SP - A. Miller, Anibal, Volstad, Johnson, G. Hernandez/Trahern

BP - Lindstrom, Cruz, Nolasco, Vanden Hurk, Owens, Tank, Pinto

 

2010 - Then it becomes insane, when some of Sinkbiel/Tucker/Thompson/Coghlan/G. Sanchez/Cousins/C. Martinez/H. Garcia/etc, and whatever we get in the next wave of trades that is bound to happen within the next calendar year, are ready to contribute and added to 25 guys above. In a best case scenario, Coghlan and G. Sanchez take over the right side of the infield, and the organization is able to get a young 3B in one of the trades . That would shave at least $8-10 off 2010 payroll, and the team would resemble the 07 DBacks in age and experience, except with 3 monsters with a few years of MLB experience (Hanley, Hermida, Maybin) and a staff 1-12 that is under 26 years of age and who all throw fire.

 

One line point - If McPherson can play at all, they should trade Uggla.

 

Holy Cow!! You have alot of time on your hands. I'll concede my point dude. You've obviously researched your position much more than I have.

this is why baseball (and baseball fans) are the best

 

intelligent discourse

Of course I saw the "if" thing around McPherson but a person doesn't build that kind of scenario and post it based on the "if", if you want it to be taken seriously. You want Uggla gone regardless of anything or anyone else. Without going back and counting them I think you said at least three times in the same post "trade Uggla". You've convinced yourself he's not going to be here, I think that's crazy speculation (and I say that in an affectionate way, I swear).

 

As for Castillo, he's going to be compared to other fifth year third base man (or second base man if you get your wish) and even if you look at what the lower tier of starting third basemen (I didn't get 2nd basemen) got in arbitration over the last couple of seasons and adjust up even moderately (this is after all the equivalent of a TWO season jump) for yet another season going by (there are no arb #s for 2007-2008, you have to go back to 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 and then try to apply some reasonable multiplier (because you're now talking about the 2008-2009 arbitration cycle), he's a lock to be looking at at least $3 million if he's starting. Your number for Uggla was $3.5 to $4 million during the same arbitration cycle. To me I'm being generous using the high end of your numbers.

 

The approximate difference, $1 million.

 

While we're at it, we are not trading 10 active roster players at the break - we just aren't going to do it. It is suicidal on too many levels and I'm surprised you would even posit such an idea. Frankly I doubt the commissioner's office would even allow it to happen. Especially since all you want back are more prospects.

 

As for the $25 vs 26 payroll number, you have to know, I simply took your number and added a million. C'mon admit it, you know that's what I did, it was clear enough. In no way would I think for a second you or anyone else who take that as endorsement of your plan. It was a number, I used it. And I stand by what I said which is Castillo, if he stays with the team for the 2009 season and goes through arbitration this winter is going to be handed roughly a million less than Uggla will get in his first arbitration.

 

You wanna disagree, such is your right but don't tell me I'm wrong because you don't agree. We can after all agree to disagree.

 

As for the rest, it's not a plan, it's a fantasy and you're entitled to fantasize all you want. Dan Uggla doesn't fit into YOUR blueprint for the team, we all know that by now, I respect your right to believe that, but that doesn't mean he doesn't fit into the front office's blueprint of the team.

 

Even BA (I think) had Uggla as the 3rd baseman in 2011 (I'm not going back to check). Maybe he'll be in left field but if he keeps hitting 30 home runs and fifty doubles and hits around .280/.350 he'll still be on this team until someone can replace that production. I wouldn't be surprised if he was signed to a six year $50 million deal if he has a good season and the stadium deal is in place. Like I said though, feel free to disagree. In the brave new world post stadium approval, Uggla for $8-10 million a year could be an absolute bargain compared to where salalries are in 2010-11-12 and beyond.

 

I couldn't help but notice you ignored my one hit a week point about Uggla showing even modest improvement, I guess because you really don't want him to or don't think he's capable of it. And again in this most recent post you're counting on McPherson (I hate being in the position of not rooting for the guy) and everything falling into place just so you can jettison Uggla.

 

You're building this whole thing around McPherson and Castillo and a minor leaguer two years removed from the bigs and couching it in "ifs" because it's too off the charts. I guess it works in fantasy leagues but I'm too pragmatic to buy into it. If a 16 had been a seventeen on a fantasy 5 ticket the other night I would have won a quarter million dollars, it wasn't and I wound up with $141.25 instead.

 

Things don't always work out the way you want them to. You can promise me this and guarantee me that but until they happen I feel no obligation to drink the kool-aid. I think a number of the players you want to trade away mid-season aren't part of either the 2009 or 2010 team but that will occur more naturally - some will go by attrition, some by trade, some non-tendered, some through free agency, etc.

 

You're absolutely right about one thing and that is either next year or the year after there will be a total logjam of talent, but again, things have a way of working themselves out. If 2007 reminded us of anything it was the oldest maxim in the book is still true - you can never have enough pitching.

 

God knows what happens next. Hanley continues to fail at shortstop and is moved to left field and Andino becomes the shortstop. Jacobs is on fire. Bye bye Hammer. Hermida crushes his knee and we need a right fielder. Bye bye Ryan Tucker and Chris Volstad. Uggla falls into the stands chasing a foul ball and becomes the next Dallas McPherson. Sh*t happens.

 

You can't predict what's going to happen in ten minutes nevermind a year from now. You'll only drive yourself nuts if you try.

This was a long one, so I'm splitting it up so you can directly quote back what you wish.

 

Of course I saw the "if" thing around McPherson but a person doesn't build that kind of scenario and post it based on the "if", if you want it to be taken seriously.You want Uggla gone regardless of anything or anyone else. Without going back and counting them I think you said at least three times in the same post "trade Uggla". You've convinced yourself he's not going to be here, I think that's crazy speculation (and I say that in an affectionate way, I swear).

I'm sorry you do not like how I think about the longterm. I think the guy is incapable of maintaining his levels of production (ex/ He is not going to hit over 80 extra base hits in 2008), especially when compared to his looming arbitration numbers that will not make him cost effective. We have a veteran and future potential longterm options capable of filling 2B for CHEAP now and longterm. This ain't crazy speculation. Seems realistic to me. If Dallas shows up in the spring and ready to play 3B (and dare I say, Cantu could do this also but I have much much less confidence in him), which is the point, Uggla becomes expendable towards the long term for aforementioned reasons.

 

As for Castillo, he's going to be compared to other fifth year third base man (or second base man if you get your wish) and even if you look at what the lower tier of starting third basemen (I didn't get 2nd basemen) got in arbitration over the last couple of seasons and adjust up even moderately (this is after all the equivalent of a TWO season jump) for yet another season going by (there are no arb #s for 2007-2008, you have to go back to 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 and then try to apply some reasonable multiplier because you're now talking about the 2008-2009 arbitration cycle), he's a lock to be looking at at least $3 million if he's starting. Your number for Uggla was $3.5 to $4 million during the same arbitration cycle. To me I'm being generous using the high end of your numbers.

Oh god willingly he is compared to other fifth year third baseman, i.e. much stronger offensive numbers so he'll be even cheaper. I can actually turn this into an argument for my theory, as since Castillo is a "3B" for 2008, and would shift to "2B" for 2009, this would keep his cost down even more for how I think we should use him, being an even better stopgap for the Marlins before 2010/Coghlan.

 

The approximate difference, $1 million.

Uggla's easy to do as we have Utley, Cano, and Phillips, but I'd actually be interested if you can find a 3rd year arbitration eligible third baseman with a sub .700 career OPS that makes $ 3 million. Or 2B.

 

While we're at it, we are not trading 10 active roster players at the break - we just aren't going to do it. It is suicidal on too many levels and I'm surprised you would even posit such an idea. Frankly I doubt the commissioner's office would even allow it to happen. Especially since all you want back are more prospects.

Suicidal? I agree it's highly unlikely, but it would be easy to replace from within and not lose much. Let's say in my "wild speculative" mind this happens. None of column 2 is in the majors opening day with the previous depth chart I proposed.

 

Gregg-Cruz

J. Miller-Anibal

Gardner - Vanden Hurk

Hendrickson-Volstad

Mitre-G. Hernandez

Amezaga-Andino

Gonzalez-Maybin

Hammer or Jacobs-Jai

Uggla-Castillo shifts to 2B, Marlins call up someone (Wood?) to be the 25th man

 

Yea, the offense would be down for the second half of 2008 because you'd be losing two big bats and only replacing it with one, but that's about it. The pitching would probably improve, and we'd get oh I don't know, 10-12 more players for the organization that fit into a contending structure post 2009. Testing out the various LF we have, and saving money for 2009 and beyond, is pretty important to this franchise. Not a big deal. Commissioner's office would stop this? Please.

 

As for the $25 vs 26 payroll number, you have to know, I simply took your number and added a million. C'mon admit it, you know that's what I did, it was clear enough. In no way would I think for a second you or anyone else who take that as endorsement of your plan. It was a number, I used it. And I stand by what I said which is Castillo, if he stays with the team for the 2009 season and goes through arbitration this winter is going to be handed roughly a million less than Uggla will get in his first arbitration.

I have no idea what you think sometimes. But this does bring up a good question, what is the anticipated Marlins payroll for 2009? If it's in the $25 million range, expect massive player movement as I have suggested and shown. If it's $35, they can probably bring back the whole team. I'm gonna stick with low 20s. Even if they do get a stadium between now and this time next year. This is just how they roll, and they can probably field a really competitive team doing it.

 

You wanna disagree, such is your right but don't tell me I'm wrong because you don't agree. We can after all agree to disagree.

 

As for the rest, it's not a plan, it's a fantasy and you're entitled to fantasize all you want. Dan Uggla doesn't fit into YOUR blueprint for the team, we all know that by now, I respect your right to believe that, but that doesn't mean he doesn't fit into the front office's blueprint of the team.

I'm pretty confident they will want a cheaper option at 2B considering the rest of the team and how Uggla is complimentary to the core. The only thing I can acknowledge is, I may be jumping the gun as 2008 being Dan's last year with the fish and that they may want him around a little bit longer to not just throw a defensive guy out there for 09. But again, considering how much they want to spend on teams, I find it unlikely he's around.

 

I couldn't help but notice you ignored my one hit a week point about Uggla showing even modest improvement, I guess because you really don't want him to or don't think he's capable of it. And again in this most recent post you're counting on McPherson (I hate being in the position of not rooting for the guy) and everything falling into place just so you can jettison Uggla.

Don't think capable of would be the answer. But, I think breaking batting averages down into a per week basis is a way to marginalize performance and hoping a player can account for a "simple" task of slapping another hit a week rather than a "huge" task in climbing 30-40 average points over the season. It's just a way of skewing statistics. Sure I'll do it from time to time too so I'm not criticizing your presentation, but that 'extra hit per week' is a lot harder than you are making it out to be here. He's going to need to make a lot more contact. And sure, I'll buy into the second part. I am counting on McPherson to OPS mid 700s or better and not embarrass himself at 3B. His inclusion to the team is great news, and gives us an honest shot at real production at 3B for a few years, and would drastically open up our trading options at making this team a powerhouse when they are ready to contend in 2 years.

 

You're building this whole thing around McPherson and Castillo and a minor leaguer two years removed from the bigs and couching it in "ifs" because it's too off the charts. I guess it works in fantasy leagues but I'm too pragmatic to buy into it. If a 16 had been a seventeen on a fantasy 5 ticket the other night I would have won a quarter million dollars, it wasn't and I wound up with $141.25 instead.

Fantasy Leagues? What? See, I hate it when you drop fantasy and xbox language on me like I don't know what the hell I'm talking about with baseball. And it's a lot more than McPherson, Castillo, and Coghlan. This is the salary structure of the Marlins. It sucks. If you haven't figured it out yet, they are keeping salary at epicly low levels and stock piling and stock piling for 2010 and beyond. If players don't fit into that equation on a performance and salary spectrum, (Hammer, Jacobs, Olsen, Uggla, a few of the RP, and the bench guys), they will be gone. It's a question of when, not if. We can afford to live without most of these guys by 2009, and a lot of them by the deadline this year.

 

Things don't always work out the way you want them to. You can promise me this and guarantee me that but until they happen I feel no obligation to drink the kool-aid. I think a number of the players you want to trade away mid-season aren't part of either the 2009 or 2010 team but that will occur more naturally - some will go by attrition, some by trade, some non-tendered, some through free agency, etc.

 

You're absolutely right about one thing and that is either next year or the year after there will be a total logjam of talent, but again, things have a way of working themselves out. If 2007 reminded us of anything it was the oldest maxim in the book is still true - you can never have enough pitching.

 

God knows what happens next. Hanley continues to fail at shortstop and is moved to left field and Andino becomes the shortstop. Jacobs is on fire. Bye bye Hammer. Hermida crushes his knee and we need a right fielder. Bye bye Ryan Tucker and Chris Volstad. Uggla falls into the stands chasing a foul ball and becomes the next Dallas McPherson. Sh*t happens.

 

You can't predict what's going to happen in ten minutes nevermind a year from now. You'll only drive yourself nuts if you try.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't have a longterm plan. And you don't assume injuries while doing it. Thats an intervening factor you deal with when they come up. It's really a compliment to Beinfest that I think it's appropriate to start shredding the 25 man roster once we get into June/July. I think he has been basically perfect this offseason (I'm going to ignore the obvious buyout Hanley's arbitration thing here) with player trades and acquisitions. And that's saying a lot considering we traded one of the best players of this generation.

Lou...lolol...I apologize for the fantasy league comment :notworthy it was funny (at least to me) but I promise it was meant as a friendly jab not a slap in the face... :notworthy

 

I'm not going to get into a long thing so I'll only make one comment on one thing. The reason I made the point about an extra hit a week dramatically changing Uggla's BA and OBP was because he struck out so damn many times last season and I was thinking as I wrote it if I were his hitting coach and I needed a barometer to measure his performance throughout the season that we both could use, I'd say "Dan our goal together this season is to turn one strikeout a week into a hit. Are you with me? One less strikeout. One more hit."

 

That was why I thought it important.

 

As for Uggla generally, let's just agree to disagree as I said above because I want to enjoy baseball this summer and I know you do too and we just fundamentally see Uggla and his future here differently.

I gotta say, I totally enjoy the back-and-forths between you two

I gotta say, I totally enjoy the back-and-forths between you two

 

So do we (I think).

I hate the way Lou thinks

 

 

and I love how last year the marlins were going to be conteders for 2009, a couple of trades later the marlins are competing in 2010, and if it all goes according to Lou's plan the consensus of the board will be to contend for 2011.

 

great news for the fans!

Lou...lolol...I apologize for the fantasy league comment :notworthy it was funny (at least to me) but I promise it was meant as a friendly jab not a slap in the face... :notworthy

 

I'm not going to get into a long thing so I'll only make one comment on one thing. The reason I made the point about an extra hit a week dramatically changing Uggla's BA and OBP was because he struck out so damn many times last season and I was thinking as I wrote it if I were his hitting coach and I needed a barometer to measure his performance throughout the season that we both could use, I'd say "Dan our goal together this season is to turn one strikeout a week into a hit. Are you with me? One less strikeout. One more hit."

 

That was why I thought it important.

 

As for Uggla generally, let's just agree to disagree as I said above because I want to enjoy baseball this summer and I know you do too and we just fundamentally see Uggla and his future here differently.

Fair enough and hey, I really do hope your right. Either way, we have a guy who pushes himself into the core or increases trade value. It's a win any way you look at it if he hits. But I hope we're all still positive about him come the summer.

I hate the way Lou thinks

 

and I love how last year the marlins were going to be conteders for 2009, a couple of trades later the marlins are competing in 2010, and if it all goes according to Lou's plan the consensus of the board will be to contend for 2011.

 

great news for the fans!

cry me a river. Riddle me major injuries to Johnson, Anibal, and Nolasco; substantial playing time injuries to Hermida, Jacobs, Owens; severe regressions from Dontrelle, Olsen; and no stadium in the picture which unfortunately cost us Cabrera which is the main reason for the setback. 2007 was pretty much one of the worst/unluckiest years I've seen in baseball for awhile. Probably only Oakland last year had as much bad luck as us. (and they are in the process of blowing up their team too). I'd rather us be a 70-75 win team for 2 more years than for us retain players for the hell of it, not accumulate talent, and waste money.

 

For this team to realistically have a shot at becoming a contender in 2010 after the major setbacks and trades, that's just a huge compliment to Beinfest. I may not exactly have their organizational plan down 100%, but I think I'm going to be pretty damn close when all is said and done, unless something like 03 suggests (Uggla or Jacobs going bananas, etc) happens. I find those very unlikely, but they would be welcome 'mistakes' on my part if they do occur. It's not hard to see the blueprint. We can only spend X dollars for the next 3-4 seasons, and Hanley/Hermida are going to cost ridiculous amounts of money in 2 years. This team is going to be anchored by cost controlled pitching - exact names are irrelevant, just the fact that at least 10 of the 20-25 arms we have pan out in 2 years - and built around an offensive core of Hanley/Hermida/Maybin, and anyone from the Coghlan/G. Sanchez/Carroll/Jai/Andino (and even Cousins/Raynor/Burns/Mitchell/Morrison) group of prospects that happens to pan out into 25 man roster options in the next 2+ years. I obviously like Coghlan and think he's a "4th" offensive player to build around longterm, and further, I think the organization is going to give all/most of those players every shot in the world to make it so they don't have to "pay" for anyone. That one is mainly directed to that first group, with G. Sanchez at 1B, Jai and Carroll in LF, and Andino in the infield. Would it shock you to see those guys atop the depth chart sooner rather than later? Not to me.

 

So yea. I do think it's great news for the fans. This offseason proved Beinfest has a plan. It's going to be exciting to see it come into play.

I gotta say, I totally enjoy the back-and-forths between you two

 

same here :notworthy

lou ...

 

I don't think its a matter of Beinfest having a plan rather than Beinfest not havinga budget.

I don't think its a matter of Beinfest having a plan rather than Beinfest not havinga budget.

 

Well isn't that the whole point? The plan is designed to work within the constraints of a tiny budget. If we have a normal team salary we aren't having this conversation.

I don't think its a matter of Beinfest having a plan rather than Beinfest not havinga budget.

 

Well isn't that the whole point? The plan is designed to work within the constraints of a tiny budget. If we have a normal team salary we aren't having this conversation.

 

well isnt that what you are expected to do when you trade quality players and can't pay players more than the league's minimum? ... you stockpile cheap talent which in 3 years you then trade again for more cheap talent because their value is on a "all time high"

 

it's a never ending cycle.

I don't think its a matter of Beinfest having a plan rather than Beinfest not havinga budget.

 

Well isn't that the whole point? The plan is designed to work within the constraints of a tiny budget. If we have a normal team salary we aren't having this conversation.

 

well isnt that what you are expected to do when you trade quality players and can't pay players more than the league's minimum? ... you stockpile cheap talent which in 3 years you then trade again for more cheap talent because their value is on a "all time high"

 

it's a never ending cycle.

 

Essentially. And if we don't get a stadium built I'm not sure there's an end to that cycle.