August 11, 200818 yr All things considered, the type of war this will likely degrade into has never favored Russia, which is odd considering their general ruthless approach to warfare. I actually expect Georgia to hang for a while, as they have a modern military, just not the manpower. I am also pulling for them as they are our little buddy. It looks like they're in trouble to me...
August 12, 200818 yr part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. But when it comes down to it, it was the Georgians who launched the initial offensive. Saakashvili didn't do his country any favors here.
August 12, 200818 yr part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. But when it comes down to it, it was the Georgians who launched the initial offensive. Saakashvili didn't do his country any favors here. Russia's been undermining Georgia for more than 10 years and they finally decided to push back and the Russians were actually sitting around waiting for a pretext for invasion to replace the pro-western Georgian government with a puppet regime.
August 12, 200818 yr part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. But when it comes down to it, it was the Georgians who launched the initial offensive. Saakashvili didn't do his country any favors here. Russia's been undermining Georgia for more than 10 years and they finally decided to push back and the Russians were actually sitting around waiting for a pretext for invasion to replace the pro-western Georgian government with a puppet regime. Agreed, but what did Saakashvili think was going to happen? NATO wasn't coming to the rescue here.
August 12, 200818 yr part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. But when it comes down to it, it was the Georgians who launched the initial offensive. Saakashvili didn't do his country any favors here. Russia's been undermining Georgia for more than 10 years and they finally decided to push back and the Russians were actually sitting around waiting for a pretext for invasion to replace the pro-western Georgian government with a puppet regime. Agreed, but what did Saakashvili think was going to happen? NATO wasn't coming to the rescue here. With his push for the EU and NATO, I really think standing up would be a good thing in his eyes. It would cement NATO's and EU's views that they are pro western and act in a western manor. Unfortunately it escalated too fast and too far for everyones likings, except of course Russia.
August 12, 200818 yr part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. But when it comes down to it, it was the Georgians who launched the initial offensive. Saakashvili didn't do his country any favors here. Do you mean Chechnya?
August 12, 200818 yr part of the long pay-back for Kosovo. But when it comes down to it, it was the Georgians who launched the initial offensive. Saakashvili didn't do his country any favors here. Do you mean Chechnya? regarding the pay-back? I mean Kosovo. Russia made it pretty clear that if we (US/NATO/etc) recognized Kosovo's idependence from Serbia, they were going to retaliate by stepping up support for separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. So I think as EricWiener mentions above, they've been itching to do something like this anyway. I don't mean to suggest that Kosovo was the main reason, just the latest.
August 12, 200818 yr They were also not happy with our support for the pro-Western government in the Ukraine, and their leader who nearly died in office a few years back.
August 12, 200818 yr Russia needs to get over the Kosovo thing, much like what is happing in South Osietta, it is really none of their business. I kind of side with Serbia on the Kosovo thing, I think declaring independence was reckless and the fact that the United States jumped so fast to recognize equally so. Serbia has a competent leader, who while being pro west has went out of his way to maintain balanced relations with everyone. Serbia can fight their own battles.
August 12, 200818 yr The training missions were a trade off for the large contingency of Georgian troops in Iraq. A wash your back/you wash mine.
August 12, 200818 yr Russia needs to get over the Kosovo thing, much like what is happing in South Osietta, it is really none of their business. I kind of side with Serbia on the Kosovo thing, I think declaring independence was reckless and the fact that the United States jumped so fast to recognize equally so. Serbia has a competent leader, who while being pro west has went out of his way to maintain balanced relations with everyone. Serbia can fight their own battles. That pro-West anti-Kosovo government was eventually given a no-confidence vote, and Vojislav Kostunica lost his post as Prime Minister. His co-leader, Boris Tadic, formed a new coalition and won a landslide victory in May snap elections. While still anti-Kosovo independence, he's hinted at a moderated stance if the EU pushes them to give up Kosovo in exchange for membership.
August 12, 200818 yr The training missions were a trade off for the large contingency of Georgian troops in Iraq. A wash your back/you wash mine. Which are now being airlifted to SO by the US, I believe. I believe those troops are back now. I do think that the Georgian president assumed that the West would stand militarily with him against Russia. However, the US in particular doesn't have the available troops to assist, even if we wanted to.
August 13, 200818 yr Author The training missions were a trade off for the large contingency of Georgian troops in Iraq. A wash your back/you wash mine. Which are now being airlifted to SO by the US, I believe. I believe those troops are back now. I do think that the Georgian president assumed that the West would stand militarily with him against Russia. However, the US in particular doesn't have the available troops to assist, even if we wanted to. I heard there were around 130 American instructors, and they also reported that some of the Georgian casualties were either black soldiers, or just not of Georgian ethnicity and that they could be American. However, that has not been confirmed as far as I know, or we would be hearing much more about it.
August 13, 200818 yr Why Georgia needs South Ossetia and Abkhazia (and is well within her reason to fight to keep them): http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealt...orgia_rel99.jpg Abkhazia essentially protects Georgia's coastline on the Black Sea (oh, and I forgot to mention the 200,000 Georgians who were ethnically cleansed from there 15 years ago). South Ossetia forms a natural northern border and protects transit between the capital Tbilisi (in the center-east) and the coast. Should South Ossetia secede or be annexed to Russia, it forms a dagger into the plateau where Gori and Tbilisi reside. And this, my friends, is why I make the analogy with the Sudetenland and Golan Heights.
August 14, 200818 yr Here is another writeup on the war: http://exiledonline.com/war-nerd-south-oss...f-my-dreams/#...
August 14, 200818 yr Author And now Russia asks the US to choose between them and Georgia. Condo is saying we choose the Georgians.
August 14, 200818 yr Author http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/us....macy/index.html That's the link to my previous comment. It also talks about word that the Russians are still advancing within Georgia.
August 14, 200818 yr http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/us....macy/index.html That's the link to my previous comment. It also talks about word that the Russians are still advancing within Georgia. I guess CNN originally had false reports. I think everyone is tip-e-toeing around hoping Russia doesn't rage a full out war.
August 14, 200818 yr Russia expanding presence in Gori (within undisputed Georgia) confirms my belief that the Russians merely want to use South Ossetia as a dagger at the heart of Georgia.
August 14, 200818 yr Author http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/us....macy/index.html That's the link to my previous comment. It also talks about word that the Russians are still advancing within Georgia. I guess CNN originally had false reports. I think everyone is tip-e-toeing around hoping Russia doesn't rage a full out war. Well the ceasefire should've stopped hostilities. I guess it did not. The Russians want Saakashvili out of Georgia badly.
August 14, 200818 yr http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/us....macy/index.html That's the link to my previous comment. It also talks about word that the Russians are still advancing within Georgia. I guess CNN originally had false reports. I think everyone is tip-e-toeing around hoping Russia doesn't rage a full out war. Well the ceasefire should've stopped hostilities. I guess it did not. The Russians want Saakashvili out of Georgia badly. The Russians also have been quoted as saying they will not be living South Ossetia any time soon, and are holding the ground.
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