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In-depth look into Johnny Bake's peripherals


Nny

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I already posted a little about this in another thread, but I wanted to look farther and assume what periphials he would have next season for us to know about what to expect, so this goes a lot more indepth.

 

So

 

Johnny Bake probably isn't the .845 OPS catcher that he has been so far. OMG I know, outlandish to say.

 

But, can we tell what he really is?

 

First of all, I want to say I do not think he should start against LHP. Yes he had a high batting average against them in AAA this year. It's also been the only time he's had success against them, he had a .457 BABIP, and we're talking about a grand total of 55 ABs. LH hitters often will have the sparse years where they actually hit lefties, but then go back to doing what they normally do in sucking agains them, and I think we can make the case that that is what happened this year in AAA for bake. Adding onto to that fact is his .200 BAA against LHP this year, his 0.42 BB/K against them (compared to 0.75 againt RHP), and his lack of power shown. In his defense he still walks about the same aginst them, but he's also King a ton more.

 

So then, it simply comes out to what will he do against RHP.

 

So far he is absolutely raking against them. .316/.407/.510 for a .917 OPS. Only one player with atleast 100 PA's against RHP has a higher OPS, Brian McCann with .936

 

The first thing that sticks out to me is his BABIP: .365 BABIP against RHP. Could he hypothetically keep it high like that. Yeah, but it's unlikely. While BABIP for hitters is unlike pitchers in that talented hitters do have higher BABIP, whereas basically all pitchers hover around the .300 mark. But, I mean we can assume that Baker is likely going to be around .300. He's not an elite hitter, but he's not bad either, so I think .300 is a fair assumption.

 

if we replace his current BABIP with a BABIP of .300, that drops his AVG down from .316 against them to .265, 51 points. The way SLG is configured, we can just drop that 51 points strait from SLG (from .510 to .459), and his OBP drops 44 points (.407 to .363). That alone drops his OPS to .822, 95 total points. But still extremely high.

 

The second thing that really sticks out is his ISO. His ISO against RHP in ALB this year was .217. So far in the majors it's .194. I doubt I need to explain why I don't think he'll continue with this ISO.

 

A more reasonable ISO to put on him would be .130-.140 That would bring his .SLG to .395-.405. His OPS now would be .758-.768

 

The last thing, and it's a less concerning thing, is his walk%. He is walking more now in the majors than he did in the minors (albiet only about a 1-2% difference), and that number NORMALLY goes down. The thing is, it doesn't always, and patience is something that players often get better in. And even then we're talking about at most 5 walk difference.

 

So, based off what you want to assume (so does he walk 5 times less, or does he keep this walk rate?), and final line

 

no difference: .265/.363/.395-.405=.758-.768

1 walk: .354/slg=.749-.759

2 walks: .345/slg=.740-.750

3 walks: .336/slg=.731-.741

4 walks: .327/slg=.722-.732

5 walks: .319/slg=.714-.724

 

personally, I think it's no difference to 2 walk difference, we'll see.

 

but under my assumption (no difference-2 walks), that would put him as at worse 18th best C this year against RHP, and at best 14th. And there's also guys up there that, based off past performance, I doubt they do that well again. So I believe he'll be a top-15 C against RHP next year. Which is still very pretty damn good. We just need to find a good RH back up C to play against LHP, and we could easily get one of the better offensive performances out of C in the majors (Only 9 teams are getting a .750 OPS or better out of their C)

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I love what Baker could bring to this team offensively, but he is a huge liability for us offensively, since there are no real big name FA catchers other than Pudge who is unlikely, we would have to trade some prospects to get a real name, I would be happy to have Baker catch for us next year, but he needs to improve his throwdown

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I take it you mean defensively?

 

Out of qualified catchers, he's throwing runners out barely below average (27.8% is the average for qualified catchers) and only has 1 PB.

 

 

Well stats don't lie, There are no really good free agent catchers out there, I am happy with Baker

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Well, if platoon is what you want...Mike Redmond wouldn't be a bad choice.

 

 

id like to keep baker and if he signs a low contract like 800k LO duca to stay because hes done a great job so far coming back

 

 

Well, Lo Duca is a career .319 hitter / .823 .OPS guy against LH pitching.

With that said...he really has no arm behind the plate.

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

 

 

If you sign Pudge for the money he's going to want...platooning wouldn't make sense.

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I'd perfer LoDuca over Redmond

 

I'd say David Ross is probably who I'd want the most. Well, I'd actually want Olivo the most, but I doubt KC declines his options, they're using him exactly as he should be used showing they know his value against LHP. Blanco would be cool too considering his defense but again, CHC is probably going to pick up his option to back up Soto. But I'd also probably have Toby Hall ahead of Mike Redmond too, although probably behind LoDuca.

 

Now LoDuca will be an interesting case. According to here, Lo Duca could be a Type B FA based almost entirely off what he did in 2007 (Keep in mind those are PROJECTIONS).

 

What I say we do is offer LoDuca arbitration. If he declines, we get a compensation pick (best case scenerio even though we then wouldn't be able to re-sign Lo Duca). If he accepts, we work out a contract for about a mil, and we have an ok RH C back up for Baker (as I still severely doubt this FO makes a trade for a topline C spec).

 

Now, offering Lo Duca is also assuming two things. One, that Lo Duca's last contract (aka the minor league contract we gave him) is the one that counts for comparision, not the one he got from Washington this year (5m). And two, that even if the 5m one counts, that Cots is right that the 80% doesn't apply to free agents being offered arbitration.

 

If the 80% rule does apply to that 5m, we don't offer him arbitration because he makes atleast 4m.

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I'd perfer LoDuca over Redmond

 

I'd say David Ross is probably who I'd want the most. Well, I'd actually want Olivo the most, but I doubt KC declines his options, they're using him exactly as he should be used showing they know his value against LHP. Blanco would be cool too considering his defense but again, CHC is probably going to pick up his option to back up Soto. But I'd also probably have Toby Hall ahead of Mike Redmond too, although probably behind LoDuca.

 

Now LoDuca will be an interesting case. According to here, Lo Duca could be a Type B FA based almost entirely off what he did in 2007 (Keep in mind those are PROJECTIONS).

 

What I say we do is offer LoDuca arbitration. If he declines, we get a compensation pick (best case scenerio even though we then wouldn't be able to re-sign Lo Duca). If he accepts, we work out a contract for about a mil, and we have an ok RH C back up for Baker (as I still severely doubt this FO makes a trade for a topline C spec).

 

 

Yeah...regardless of the outcome, if this is the case...finding a platoon partner for Baker shouldn't be an issue. There are plenty of options.

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

 

 

If you sign Pudge for the money he's going to want...platooning wouldn't make sense.

 

 

what i meant was if we have pudge...baker is an excellent backup.

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

Pudge is no good for this team.

Andy Pettitte has asked never to pitch to him again because of his game calling.

Our team's strength (esp. next year) is pitching.

We don't need a poor game caller back there, and Pudge at this stage of his career probably won't put up better numbers than someone commanding 1/3 of his salary.

Just my .02

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

 

 

If you sign Pudge for the money he's going to want...platooning wouldn't make sense.

 

Correct. Pudge would back up Baker.

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

Pudge is no good for this team.

Andy Pettitte has asked never to pitch to him again because of his game calling.

Our team's strength (esp. next year) is pitching.

We don't need a poor game caller back there, and Pudge at this stage of his career probably won't put up better numbers than someone commanding 1/3 of his salary.

Just my .02

 

 

The man is a HOF'er, with several gold gloves. I'm sure Pudge can call a game very well.

At the end of the day, the catcher calling the game is irrelevant, if the pitcher isn't hitting his spots.

 

Go back earlier in the year to Detroit...if we're going by this, Justin Verlander (for example) seemed to like Pudge, plenty.

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

Pudge is no good for this team.

Andy Pettitte has asked never to pitch to him again because of his game calling.

Our team's strength (esp. next year) is pitching.

We don't need a poor game caller back there, and Pudge at this stage of his career probably won't put up better numbers than someone commanding 1/3 of his salary.

Just my .02

 

 

The man is a HOF'er, with several gold gloves. I'm sure Pudge can call a game very well.

At the end of the day, the catcher calling the game is irrelevant, if the pitcher isn't hitting his spots.

 

Go back earlier in the year to Detroit...if we're going by this, Justin Verlander (for example) seemed to like Pudge, plenty.

 

Verlander hasn't exactly had even close to a good season

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

Pudge is no good for this team.

Andy Pettitte has asked never to pitch to him again because of his game calling.

Our team's strength (esp. next year) is pitching.

We don't need a poor game caller back there, and Pudge at this stage of his career probably won't put up better numbers than someone commanding 1/3 of his salary.

Just my .02

 

 

The man is a HOF'er, with several gold gloves. I'm sure Pudge can call a game very well.

At the end of the day, the catcher calling the game is irrelevant, if the pitcher isn't hitting his spots.

 

Go back earlier in the year to Detroit...if we're going by this, Justin Verlander (for example) seemed to like Pudge, plenty.

 

Verlander hasn't exactly had even close to a good season

 

 

He hasn't. Yet, he did well when Pudge caught him.

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Well, if platoon is what you want...Mike Redmond wouldn't be a bad choice.

EEEEEE......I think there are plenty of better choices for a platoon besides Redmond. Not to hate on Red, but he is perfectly suited for backup duty. I just don't even see him as a part-time starter.

 

 

He's the first name that came to my head.

He's not the best option, you can say...but a career .327 hitter / .800+ .OPS against left-handed pitching. Definitely not bad from the catcher's spot (assuming the team goes this route...I'm still not overly convinced with Baker yet, though).

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Well, if platoon is what you want...Mike Redmond wouldn't be a bad choice.

EEEEEE......I think there are plenty of better choices for a platoon besides Redmond. Not to hate on Red, but he is perfectly suited for backup duty. I just don't even see him as a part-time starter.

 

 

He's the first name that came to my head.

He's not the best option, you can say...but a career .327 hitter / .800+ .OPS against left-handed pitching. Definitely not bad from the catcher's spot (assuming the team goes this route...I'm still not overly convinced with Baker yet, though).

I think I could take a full season of Baker.

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

 

 

If you sign Pudge for the money he's going to want...platooning wouldn't make sense.

 

Correct. Pudge would back up Baker.

I highly doubt Rodriguez would accept a backup role.

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i like baker starting on opening day....but if we sign pudge i will be extra happy. Pudge is one of my favorite catchers of all time and i still believe he has some left in the tank. now a pudge/baker platoon.....very nice.

 

 

If you sign Pudge for the money he's going to want...platooning wouldn't make sense.

 

Correct. Pudge would back up Baker.

I highly doubt Rodriguez would accept a backup role.

Never said he would.

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Well, if platoon is what you want...Mike Redmond wouldn't be a bad choice.

EEEEEE......I think there are plenty of better choices for a platoon besides Redmond. Not to hate on Red, but he is perfectly suited for backup duty. I just don't even see him as a part-time starter.

Red would be the perfect platoon partner.

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