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The Prediction Thread


FreshFish
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Please keep partisanship outside of this thread. Just state your predictions and if you want the logic behind it...I used http://www.realclearpolitics.com (Electoral Map) to calculate the electoral votes numbers.

 

Voting for - McCain/Palin

 

 

Predictions:

President: Obama

 

(McCain goes down with the economy, more bad news on the economy will hit the pipe and right or wrong people will vote against the party in power. Obama's campaign is also doing an excellent job tying Bush to McCain, damaging McCain even more with the erosion of the economy)

 

Electoral Count: Obama 288, McCain 250

 

Battleground States: M - McCain, O - Obama

Colorado - O

Ohio - O

PA- O

FL - M

Nevada - M

VA - M

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Indiana - M

New Mexico - M

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Voting for - Obama/Biden

 

 

Predictions:

President: McCain

 

(It just echoes of 2004 to me)

 

Electoral Count: McCain 270, Obama 268

 

Battleground States: M - McCain, O - Obama

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

PA- M

FL - M

Nevada - O

VA - M

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Indiana - O

New Mexico - O

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Voting for: Obama

 

Predictions:

 

President - Obama

 

Electoroal count:

 

Obama - 329

McCain - 209

 

Battleground States:

 

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

Florida - O

Nevada - O

VA - O

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Pennsylvannia - O

New Mexico - O

New Hampshire - O

 

 

Godfather: I want whatever you're smoking. Not one poll has shown McCain ahead in PA, MI, WI, or MN and you think McCain is going to sweep there. That's laughable.

 

New Mexico is as good as gone for McCain. The last two polls show Obama comfortably ahead.

 

Just a few notes on Obama's victories (in my estimation) in Colorado, Florida, and VA. He's got a superior ground game, so he'll be able to turn out his people much better than McCain. If he's within 1-2 points on election day he's going to win those states.

 

However, I reserve my right to change my predictions on or before October 15. The race remainds fluid because we haven't had any debates yet. I think by next week we'll have an idea of where the country is headed.

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Voting for: Obama

 

Predictions:

 

President - Obama

 

Electoroal count:

 

Obama - 329

McCain - 209

 

Battleground States:

 

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

Florida - O

Nevada - O

VA - O

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Pennsylvannia - O

New Mexico - O

New Hampshire - O

 

 

Godfather: I want whatever you're smoking. Not one poll has shown McCain ahead in PA, MI, WI, or MN and you think McCain is going to sweep there. That's laughable.

 

New Mexico is as good as gone for McCain. The last two polls show Obama comfortably ahead.

 

Just a few notes on Obama's victories (in my estimation) in Colorado, Florida, and VA. He's got a superior ground game, so he'll be able to turn out his people much better than McCain. If he's within 1-2 points on election day he's going to win those states.

 

However, I reserve my right to change my predictions on or before October 15. The race remainds fluid because we haven't had any debates yet. I think by next week we'll have an idea of where the country is headed.

 

Agreed with analysis of GFs analysis. No way Obama loses PA and NM but wins VA and NV.

 

I've lost a good degree of faith in Florida going dem. It would take drastic AA turnout.

 

VA is an interesting state as Dodge can attest to. McCain's inherent advantage with the military folks will give him a boost that Allen didn't have over Webb. But Richmond and NOVA need to crush for Obama to win the state. It's tight, but it's tough.

 

Boston Globe has an interesting tool called the "What If" calculator. It lets you adjust for percentage and proportion of a demographic group and see how that effects the electoral vote as compared to 2004 or 2006.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/s...emographic_map/

 

Just taking Kerry's number, if Obama sees a 5% increase in AA vote and they vote for him by +84%(say a 92% to 8% difference, which is not implausible) and Latinos come out in the same amount but increase their percentage to him to +20%(say 60% to 40%, which is what the current polls show), and McCain does as well with whites as Bush did in 2004, Obama wins the election by taking Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida. Take away Florida and give him Iowa, which is strongly in his category, and there is a 269-269 tie, throwing it to the dem controlled house of reps.

 

Long story short, I think Nevada flips because of ethnic shifts. I am hoping CO does too.

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Voting for: Obama

 

Predictions:

 

President - Obama

 

Electoroal count:

 

Obama - 329

McCain - 209

 

Battleground States:

 

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

Florida - O

Nevada - O

VA - O

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Pennsylvannia - O

New Mexico - O

New Hampshire - O

 

 

Godfather: I want whatever you're smoking. Not one poll has shown McCain ahead in PA, MI, WI, or MN and you think McCain is going to sweep there. That's laughable.

 

New Mexico is as good as gone for McCain. The last two polls show Obama comfortably ahead.

 

Just a few notes on Obama's victories (in my estimation) in Colorado, Florida, and VA. He's got a superior ground game, so he'll be able to turn out his people much better than McCain. If he's within 1-2 points on election day he's going to win those states.

 

However, I reserve my right to change my predictions on or before October 15. The race remainds fluid because we haven't had any debates yet. I think by next week we'll have an idea of where the country is headed.

 

Agreed with analysis of GFs analysis. No way Obama loses PA and NM but wins VA and NV.

 

I've lost a good degree of faith in Florida going dem. It would take drastic AA turnout.

 

VA is an interesting state as Dodge can attest to. McCain's inherent advantage with the military folks will give him a boost that Allen didn't have over Webb. But Richmond and NOVA need to crush for Obama to win the state. It's tight, but it's tough.

 

Boston Globe has an interesting tool called the "What If" calculator. It lets you adjust for percentage and proportion of a demographic group and see how that effects the electoral vote as compared to 2004 or 2006.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/s...emographic_map/

 

Just taking Kerry's number, if Obama sees a 5% increase in AA vote and they vote for him by +84%(say a 92% to 8% difference, which is not implausible) and Latinos come out in the same amount but increase their percentage to him to +20%(say 60% to 40%, which is what the current polls show), and McCain does as well with whites as Bush did in 2004, Obama wins the election by taking Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida. Take away Florida and give him Iowa, which is strongly in his category, and there is a 269-269 tie, throwing it to the dem controlled house of reps.

 

Long story short, I think Nevada flips because of ethnic shifts. I am hoping CO does too.

 

I think Obama is starting to solidify a nice lead in VA. See: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport...bd-3a481b87bf37

 

As for Florida, we've seen more than a few polls showing it is a dead heat here. I've heard Rasmussen is coming out with a poll of Florida tonight showing the race is tied. They lean a bit Republican (but are generally one of the top polling firms), so that goes to show you Florida is really competitive.

 

I can tell you I've seen a tremendous swing towards Obama here in Florida. A lot of people that I knew were on the fence or were weak but persuadable McCain voters have recently become Obama voters. With a strong ground game (getting AA's out to vote, young people at the huge universities, and pounding the Social Security issue re: the financial crisis to seniors), Obama will pull it out.

 

I'll wait as we get closer to election time to predict the exact number, but I think Obama will be at around 51 here. His ground game is strong. Bush gained about 4 points in 04 on the ground game alone, and I think Obama can do the same.

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Virginia is tough to gauge though. Let's see a few more polls come out. It's close. That puts him on similar footing as Webb and Kaine, both of whom fought through tough elections and won. So that gives me hope.

 

It's my hope that the ground game is the total x-factor in this race. I went out canvassing for Obama a few weekends ago in just one specific northern Virginia neighborhood and there were about 12 canvassers just for that area. Canvassing can be tough though. When we did it, we registered a couple of people and identified some people who lean Obama but werent sure(our essential goal). My friend went last week and got nothing.I also live close to his Bethesda, MD office that is working on northern Virginia. On a Tuesday night, it was just packed and there wasn't enough phones for people to use. He has the army. It just needs to translate.

 

I hope you're right about Florida. Obama put it best: He doesn't need Florida to win, but if he wins it, McCain's chances are really really low.

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I personally think Obama will lose alot of voters come debate time, as he just sounds awful when he doesnt have a teleprompter in front of him and "uhh, umm, ahh" isnt an answer.

 

Obama usually thinks about the answer instead of spouting out a trained response. Or at least he wants to appear he's thinking about it.... :lol

 

And it's not like John McCain is an engaging speaker. The guy is probably the worst speaker of GOP nominees I can remember. Maybe Bob Dole.

 

 

 

Actually I think McCain will do well in Friday's debate since it's on foreign policy. After that, not so much. But then again sometimes it's about expectations. McCain's generally seen as the foreign policy guy so if Obama can do okay it might be a win for him.

 

Same thing for McCain if he can hold his own in the domestic issue debates.

 

 

Then again sometimes these things don't make any difference. I think most people felt Kerry won the debates & it didn't change anything.

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Voting for: Obama

 

Predictions:

 

President - Obama

 

Electoroal count:

 

Obama - 329

McCain - 209

 

Battleground States:

 

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

Florida - O

Nevada - O

VA - O

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Pennsylvannia - O

New Mexico - O

New Hampshire - O

 

 

Godfather: I want whatever you're smoking. Not one poll has shown McCain ahead in PA, MI, WI, or MN and you think McCain is going to sweep there. That's laughable.

 

 

We'll see. I think people in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are going to/do love Palin enough to swing the vote and I have a hard time giving Obama Pa. when he couldn't even win it in the primaries.

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Voting for: Obama

 

Predictions:

 

President - Obama

 

Electoroal count:

 

Obama - 329

McCain - 209

 

Battleground States:

 

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

Florida - O

Nevada - O

VA - O

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Pennsylvannia - O

New Mexico - O

New Hampshire - O

 

 

Godfather: I want whatever you're smoking. Not one poll has shown McCain ahead in PA, MI, WI, or MN and you think McCain is going to sweep there. That's laughable.

 

 

We'll see. I think people in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are going to/do love Palin enough to swing the vote and I have a hard time giving Obama Pa. when he couldn't even win it in the primaries.

 

McCain lost Michigan and Nevada.

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I personally think Obama will lose alot of voters come debate time, as he just sounds awful when he doesnt have a teleprompter in front of him and "uhh, umm, ahh" isnt an answer.

 

Obama usually thinks about the answer instead of spouting out a trained response. Or at least he wants to appear he's thinking about it.... :lol

 

And it's not like John McCain is an engaging speaker. The guy is probably the worst speaker of GOP nominees I can remember. Maybe Bob Dole.

 

 

 

Actually I think McCain will do well in Friday's debate since it's on foreign policy. After that, not so much. But then again sometimes it's about expectations. McCain's generally seen as the foreign policy guy so if Obama can do okay it might be a win for him.

 

Same thing for McCain if he can hold his own in the domestic issue debates.

 

 

Then again sometimes these things don't make any difference. I think most people felt Kerry won the debates & it didn't change anything.

 

For some reason my perception of 2004 is different. I thought Kerry managed to catch up somewhat to Bush after Bush had taken a huge post-convention lead because of the debate.

 

Im hoping this debate benefits Obama like the first debate in 1980 benefitting Reagan. People will think McCain should give Obama "the celebrity" a lesson in foreign policy out by the woodshed. But Obama holding his own will play into his hands. Similiar to Bush/Gore 2000.

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Voting for: Obama

 

Predictions:

 

President - Obama

 

Electoroal count:

 

Obama - 329

McCain - 209

 

Battleground States:

 

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

Florida - O

Nevada - O

VA - O

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Pennsylvannia - O

New Mexico - O

New Hampshire - O

 

 

Godfather: I want whatever you're smoking. Not one poll has shown McCain ahead in PA, MI, WI, or MN and you think McCain is going to sweep there. That's laughable.

 

 

We'll see. I think people in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are going to/do love Palin enough to swing the vote and I have a hard time giving Obama Pa. when he couldn't even win it in the primaries.

 

McCain lost Michigan and Nevada.

 

I gave Nevada to Obama and Romney won Michigan by a non majority because that is (basically) his home state and the only state he is actually popular in.

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