you may be right F_M, I was thinking it was close already before the debates.

 

Yeah, initially it looked like Kerry had made up some ground. Just not enough to catch Bush. Debate was around September 30.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/President.../chart3way.html

 

I have read alternative theory as to the behavior of polls based on incumbent/candidate of previous president vs. challenger.

 

The theory goes that throughout the summer, the challenger has a small to mid-size lead. Then the conventions come up and the incumbent/candidate of the incumbent party has a surge. Then the challenger has to rally and either successfully overcomes the incumbent or does not. Gore took a lead on Bush in 2000, then Bush rallied to win it. Bush took a lead on Kerry in 2004, Kerry rallied, but fell short. If it goes accordingly in this election, McCain took a lead on Obama, and Obama has already rallied to take a 2.7 point rcp average lead, which is good news for him. It's reflected in these charts:

 

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polling_tren...008_vs_04_a.php

 

I hope this is how the pattern goes. If it does, Obama theoratically would expand his lead. But who knows.

I personally think Obama will lose alot of voters come debate time, as he just sounds awful when he doesnt have a teleprompter in front of him and "uhh, umm, ahh" isnt an answer.

 

Obama usually thinks about the answer instead of spouting out a trained response. Or at least he wants to appear he's thinking about it.... :lol

 

And it's not like John McCain is an engaging speaker. The guy is probably the worst speaker of GOP nominees I can remember. Maybe Bob Dole.

 

 

 

Actually I think McCain will do well in Friday's debate since it's on foreign policy. After that, not so much. But then again sometimes it's about expectations. McCain's generally seen as the foreign policy guy so if Obama can do okay it might be a win for him.

 

Same thing for McCain if he can hold his own in the domestic issue debates.

 

 

Then again sometimes these things don't make any difference. I think most people felt Kerry won the debates & it didn't change anything.

 

For some reason my perception of 2004 is different. I thought Kerry managed to catch up somewhat to Bush after Bush had taken a huge post-convention lead because of the debate.

 

Im hoping this debate benefits Obama like the first debate in 1980 benefitting Reagan. People will think McCain should give Obama "the celebrity" a lesson in foreign policy out by the woodshed. But Obama holding his own will play into his hands. Similiar to Bush/Gore 2000.

 

Kerry was down about 10 points heading into the first debate. He won all three debates, hands down. The debates gave Kerry a 7 point bump. If he had not allowed himself to get swiftboated he would have won that election.

For you poll junkies, www.fivethirtyeight.com is a fantastic website.

For you poll junkies, www.fivethirtyeight.com is a fantastic website.

 

I love fivethirtyeight. I don't always understand their analysis, but they do a good job with polls. I consider myself a full blown crack addict when it comes to polls, ie refreshing realclearpolitics.com's lastest polls link.

Voting for: Obama

 

Prediction: Obama

 

Reasoning: People realize that the past 8 years have been run by McCain's party.

If he had not allowed himself to get swiftboated he would have won that election.

If you look at all the mischief going on in Ohio, especially in voting districts that were predominantly black, he probably DID win the state, and the election as a result. However, Kerry made the mistake of not challenging the Ohio voting results.

I personally think Obama will lose alot of voters come debate time, as he just sounds awful when he doesnt have a teleprompter in front of him and "uhh, umm, ahh" isnt an answer.

 

Obama usually thinks about the answer instead of spouting out a trained response. Or at least he wants to appear he's thinking about it.... :lol

 

And it's not like John McCain is an engaging speaker. The guy is probably the worst speaker of GOP nominees I can remember. Maybe Bob Dole.

 

 

 

Actually I think McCain will do well in Friday's debate since it's on foreign policy. After that, not so much. But then again sometimes it's about expectations. McCain's generally seen as the foreign policy guy so if Obama can do okay it might be a win for him.

 

Same thing for McCain if he can hold his own in the domestic issue debates.

 

 

Then again sometimes these things don't make any difference. I think most people felt Kerry won the debates & it didn't change anything.

 

For some reason my perception of 2004 is different. I thought Kerry managed to catch up somewhat to Bush after Bush had taken a huge post-convention lead because of the debate.

 

Im hoping this debate benefits Obama like the first debate in 1980 benefitting Reagan. People will think McCain should give Obama "the celebrity" a lesson in foreign policy out by the woodshed. But Obama holding his own will play into his hands. Similiar to Bush/Gore 2000.

 

I dont see him holding his own. He is a terrible on the fly speaker.

Voting for: Obama

 

Prediction: Obama

 

Reasoning: People realize that the past 8 years have been run by McCain's party.

 

 

I hate to correct you but the Democrats have have controlled congress since the 2006 elections , and they also controlled the senate most 2000-2002 when Jeffords switched parties swinging the balance of power in the senate

Oh ok, I didn't know any of that. Guess it's pretty silly for anybody to blame Bush then, since it's clearly all the Democrats fault.

Voting for: Obama

 

Predictions:

 

President - Obama

 

Electoral count:

 

Obama - 273

McCain - 265

 

Battleground States:

 

Colorado - O

Ohio - M

Florida - M

Nevada - M

VA - M

Minn - O

Wisconsin - O

Michigan - O

Pennsylvania - O

New Mexico - O

New Hampshire - O

Colorado - O

 

I am not voting for Obama but I agree with your electoral map , I think everything hinges on Colorado and right now the polls appear to be trending in Obama's favor.

Oh ok, I didn't know any of that. Guess it's pretty silly for anybody to blame Bush then, since it's clearly all the Democrats fault.

 

Our current economic condition is not one person or one parties fault, but if this simplistic approach is the approach you feel you need to buttress your political views so be it

Oh ok, I didn't know any of that. Guess it's pretty silly for anybody to blame Bush then, since it's clearly all the Democrats fault.

 

 

It's not anyone's fault entirely, but the point still stands that George W. Bush actually has a higher approval rating than the democratically controlled congress...

Oh ok, I didn't know any of that. Guess it's pretty silly for anybody to blame Bush then, since it's clearly all the Democrats fault.

 

 

It's not anyone's fault entirely, but the point still stands that George W. Bush actually has a higher approval rating than the democratically controlled congress...

Congress never has a higher rating than the president. That's just how it works.

Oh ok, I didn't know any of that. Guess it's pretty silly for anybody to blame Bush then, since it's clearly all the Democrats fault.

 

I'm with Biden. I blame the Bush tax cuts.

Voting for: Obama

 

Prediction: Obama

 

Reasoning: People realize that the past 8 years have been run by McCain's party.

 

 

I hate to correct you but the Democrats have have controlled congress since the 2006 elections , and they also controlled the senate most 2000-2002 when Jeffords switched parties swinging the balance of power in the senate

 

They controlled the SENATE in 2001 and 2002 - by one vote. Republicans had strong majorities in the House both years.

Voting for: Obama

 

Prediction: Obama

 

Reasoning: People realize that the past 8 years have been run by McCain's party.

 

 

I hate to correct you but the Democrats have have controlled congress since the 2006 elections , and they also controlled the senate most 2000-2002 when Jeffords switched parties swinging the balance of power in the senate

 

They controlled the SENATE in 2001 and 2002 - by one vote. Republicans had strong majorities in the House both years.

 

One vote is still control of one of the legislative chambers. The point really is irrelevant , I stand by my assertion no one party or person is responsible for our current economic condition . if I were to use that posters rationale whom I was responding to I could accurately state since the Democrats took control over congress our economy has detoriated .Factually it is true but is too oversimplistic. The seeds our economic discontent were sewn decades ago with both parties working hand and hand by writing poor laws , growing the government bureaucracy.

Voting for: Obama

 

Prediction: Obama

 

Reasoning: People realize that the past 8 years have been run by McCain's party.

 

 

I hate to correct you but the Democrats have have controlled congress since the 2006 elections , and they also controlled the senate most 2000-2002 when Jeffords switched parties swinging the balance of power in the senate

 

They controlled the SENATE in 2001 and 2002 - by one vote. Republicans had strong majorities in the House both years.

 

One vote is still control of one of the legislative chambers. The point really is irrelevant , I stand by my assertion no one party or person is responsible for our current economic condition . if I were to use that posters rationale whom I was responding to I could accurately state since the Democrats took control over congress our economy has detoriated .Factually it is true but is too oversimplistic. The seeds our economic discontent were sewn decades ago with both parties working hand and hand by writing poor laws , growing the government bureaucracy.

 

Agreed. A bunch of factors are responsible, including the lending institutions themselves and the investment bankers.

If he had not allowed himself to get swiftboated he would have won that election.

If you look at all the mischief going on in Ohio, especially in voting districts that were predominantly black, he probably DID win the state, and the election as a result. However, Kerry made the mistake of not challenging the Ohio voting results.

 

hahahahaha. I love how its only the Republicans that engaged in this behavior. Shady dealings during elections happen all over the place. If you really think its only Republicans doing it then you are definitely either blind by your own bias or you refuse to accept the truth. Illinois has had a history of shady activity during elections. Let's challenge Illinois every year.

I will be shocked if Obama takes Florida. I think it would have to come from elsewhere. F_M's prediction is probably his best bet.

Why would you be shocked?

 

Recent polls show it is a very tight race. He just needs to get out the vote. I think he can do it.

Why would you be shocked?

 

Recent polls show it is a very tight race. He just needs to get out the vote. I think he can do it.

The I-4 corridor's solid conservative base may be too hard to overcome. I just think that Florida has gone too conservative in general anyway.

Why would you be shocked?

 

Recent polls show it is a very tight race. He just needs to get out the vote. I think he can do it.

 

I would be thrilled, just surprised. Probably moving up here to Jacksonville where it's GOP heaven has clouded my thinking a bit.

The I-4 is turning purple - recent polls show a dead heat there.

 

Yes, living in Jacksonville will cloud your mind, just like living in South Florida will. Among the people I know down here, it is probably about 75-25 for Obama. South Florida will probably go 65-35 for Obama (slightly better than Kerry in 2004).

Hotcorner, can the black vote in Jacksonville have any effect? Duval county went to Bush by 16 points in 2004.

 

The problem, for dems, with Florida is that there just seems to be too many large suburban counties that don't go democrat. My home county of Brevard is one. 250k some odd votes and Bush won by 16% there. That in itself takes back 1/4 of what Broward gives to democrats.

 

I hope you are right prinmemito. It won't be easy at all for Obama in this state. If he wins Florida, the election is probably a landslide.

The I-4 is turning purple - recent polls show a dead heat there.

 

Yes, living in Jacksonville will cloud your mind, just like living in South Florida will. Among the people I know down here, it is probably about 75-25 for Obama. South Florida will probably go 65-35 for Obama (slightly better than Kerry in 2004).

 

I don't think Kerry got 65% of the South Florida vote. If I recall correctly, Kerry got about 66% in Broward, about 60% in Palm Beach and about 52% in Miami-dade. The average of the three counties was in the high 50s.