September 24, 200818 yr The I-4 is turning purple - recent polls show a dead heat there. Yes, living in Jacksonville will cloud your mind, just like living in South Florida will. Among the people I know down here, it is probably about 75-25 for Obama. South Florida will probably go 65-35 for Obama (slightly better than Kerry in 2004). I don't think Kerry got 65% of the South Florida vote. If I recall correctly, Kerry got about 66% in Broward, about 60% in Palm Beach and about 52% in Miami-dade. The average of the three counties was in the high 50s. I said slightly below what Kerry got. Kerry got about 60 percent. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States...n_Florida,_2004 Do the math. This year, I think Obama will get about 63-65 percent, or a few points below what Kerry got.
October 29, 200817 yr I will make final predictions on Sunday. As of now, I would say this: Obama 370 electoral votes McCain 168 electoral votes Popular vote: Obama 53 McCain 46 This is based on demographic projections in voter turnout in different states which I am making given the early voter turnout thus far. In addition, I think Obama could win GA, SC, and perhaps one or two more southern states, depending on how much the AA turnout increases. For example, traditionally, in GA, AA's make up about 24 percent of all voters in presidential elections, even though they make up 29 percent of all registered voters in the state. White voters in GA (let's just say they're 76 percent, even though you have a lot of Hispanics there, too) usually vote about 30% for Dems in that state. If the AA turnout exceeds 30 percent (let's call it 33 percent), Obama gets 98% of that vote, and Obama gets 25% of the remaining vote, thats: 32.34 +17.00 for a total of about 49.34. Give about 3 percent to Barr and other third party candidates, and your total vote in GA will be Obama 49.34, McCain 47.66. We know AA turnout is up tremendously in GA, we just won't know exactly how much until after the election. At the moment, AA's are accounting for about 38 percent of early voters. Early voters account for 20% of all registered voters through today. They have a few more days to vote. Assuming 75 percent turnout, we've already seen more than 25% of all votes cast in GA. This is all based on this particular turnout model I am using. If Obama gets AA voter turnout to abotu 33 percent and gets his young white supporters to go out and vote for him in GA (thus maintaining at least 25% of the white vote in GA), he's going to win there, too. In sum, all things being equal (no shift in the polls), it's all about turnout, and the bigger the turnout the more lopsided the victory will be. I'll predict on Sunday night.
October 29, 200817 yr Hotcorner, can the black vote in Jacksonville have any effect? Duval county went to Bush by 16 points in 2004. Yes, but I'd have to look up what the turnout % typically is. The county will still go McCain but it will probably be closer, so I guess that's one of the areas that could swing things.
October 29, 200817 yr I would like to revise my prediction for an Obama win. Up until very recently I have been a cynical prick and have predicted a McCain win. 324-214 Obama. NC, Nevada and Colorado stay red. VA, Ohio and Florida go blue.
October 29, 200817 yr Polls have been showing Obama gaining the upper hand in Nevada and Colorado. I don't know about North Carolina, but now it appears that Elizabeth Dole's struggling campaign released a faked tape of her opponent denying the existence of God. That could hurt McCain in that state.
October 29, 200817 yr I will make final predictions on Sunday. As of now, I would say this: Obama 370 electoral votes McCain 168 electoral votes Popular vote: Obama 53 McCain 46 This is based on demographic projections in voter turnout in different states which I am making given the early voter turnout thus far. In addition, I think Obama could win GA, SC, and perhaps one or two more southern states, depending on how much the AA turnout increases. For example, traditionally, in GA, AA's make up about 24 percent of all voters in presidential elections, even though they make up 29 percent of all registered voters in the state. White voters in GA (let's just say they're 76 percent, even though you have a lot of Hispanics there, too) usually vote about 30% for Dems in that state. If the AA turnout exceeds 30 percent (let's call it 33 percent), Obama gets 98% of that vote, and Obama gets 25% of the remaining vote, thats: 32.34 +17.00 for a total of about 49.34. Give about 3 percent to Barr and other third party candidates, and your total vote in GA will be Obama 49.34, McCain 47.66. We know AA turnout is up tremendously in GA, we just won't know exactly how much until after the election. At the moment, AA's are accounting for about 38 percent of early voters. Early voters account for 20% of all registered voters through today. They have a few more days to vote. Assuming 75 percent turnout, we've already seen more than 25% of all votes cast in GA. This is all based on this particular turnout model I am using. If Obama gets AA voter turnout to abotu 33 percent and gets his young white supporters to go out and vote for him in GA (thus maintaining at least 25% of the white vote in GA), he's going to win there, too. In sum, all things being equal (no shift in the polls), it's all about turnout, and the bigger the turnout the more lopsided the victory will be. I'll predict on Sunday night. Do you mean the African american turn out or turn out overall? It was always conventional wisdom that the higher the turnout the bigger the victory for the dems. That didn't happen in 2004, and if we are going into unchartered waters in 2008, it's going to make for a very fun night.
October 30, 200817 yr I will make final predictions on Sunday. As of now, I would say this: Obama 370 electoral votes McCain 168 electoral votes Popular vote: Obama 53 McCain 46 This is based on demographic projections in voter turnout in different states which I am making given the early voter turnout thus far. In addition, I think Obama could win GA, SC, and perhaps one or two more southern states, depending on how much the AA turnout increases. For example, traditionally, in GA, AA's make up about 24 percent of all voters in presidential elections, even though they make up 29 percent of all registered voters in the state. White voters in GA (let's just say they're 76 percent, even though you have a lot of Hispanics there, too) usually vote about 30% for Dems in that state. If the AA turnout exceeds 30 percent (let's call it 33 percent), Obama gets 98% of that vote, and Obama gets 25% of the remaining vote, thats: 32.34 +17.00 for a total of about 49.34. Give about 3 percent to Barr and other third party candidates, and your total vote in GA will be Obama 49.34, McCain 47.66. We know AA turnout is up tremendously in GA, we just won't know exactly how much until after the election. At the moment, AA's are accounting for about 38 percent of early voters. Early voters account for 20% of all registered voters through today. They have a few more days to vote. Assuming 75 percent turnout, we've already seen more than 25% of all votes cast in GA. This is all based on this particular turnout model I am using. If Obama gets AA voter turnout to abotu 33 percent and gets his young white supporters to go out and vote for him in GA (thus maintaining at least 25% of the white vote in GA), he's going to win there, too. In sum, all things being equal (no shift in the polls), it's all about turnout, and the bigger the turnout the more lopsided the victory will be. I'll predict on Sunday night. Do you mean the African american turn out or turn out overall? It was always conventional wisdom that the higher the turnout the bigger the victory for the dems. That didn't happen in 2004, and if we are going into unchartered waters in 2008, it's going to make for a very fun night. African Americans, young voters, and well educated voters. You're right about 2004 - except that Bush managed to increase turnout among his base, too (evangelicals). Bush's groundgame in 2004 was legit. In fact, second only perhaps to Obama's this year. There is a large gap in the ground game between the Obama and McCain campaigns. McCain's groundgame is nonexistent in states like Florida and Ohio. We'll see how this turns out, but I think much higher turnout (30% higher) means an Obama landslide, mostly because if the turnout is 30% higher it means you're getting a lot of first time voters and AA voters.
October 30, 200817 yr Author I will make final predictions on Sunday. As of now, I would say this: Obama 370 electoral votes McCain 168 electoral votes Popular vote: Obama 53 McCain 46 This is based on demographic projections in voter turnout in different states which I am making given the early voter turnout thus far. In addition, I think Obama could win GA, SC, and perhaps one or two more southern states, depending on how much the AA turnout increases. For example, traditionally, in GA, AA's make up about 24 percent of all voters in presidential elections, even though they make up 29 percent of all registered voters in the state. White voters in GA (let's just say they're 76 percent, even though you have a lot of Hispanics there, too) usually vote about 30% for Dems in that state. If the AA turnout exceeds 30 percent (let's call it 33 percent), Obama gets 98% of that vote, and Obama gets 25% of the remaining vote, thats: 32.34 +17.00 for a total of about 49.34. Give about 3 percent to Barr and other third party candidates, and your total vote in GA will be Obama 49.34, McCain 47.66. We know AA turnout is up tremendously in GA, we just won't know exactly how much until after the election. At the moment, AA's are accounting for about 38 percent of early voters. Early voters account for 20% of all registered voters through today. They have a few more days to vote. Assuming 75 percent turnout, we've already seen more than 25% of all votes cast in GA. This is all based on this particular turnout model I am using. If Obama gets AA voter turnout to abotu 33 percent and gets his young white supporters to go out and vote for him in GA (thus maintaining at least 25% of the white vote in GA), he's going to win there, too. In sum, all things being equal (no shift in the polls), it's all about turnout, and the bigger the turnout the more lopsided the victory will be. I'll predict on Sunday night. Do you mean the African american turn out or turn out overall? It was always conventional wisdom that the higher the turnout the bigger the victory for the dems. That didn't happen in 2004, and if we are going into unchartered waters in 2008, it's going to make for a very fun night. African Americans, young voters, and well educated voters. You're right about 2004 - except that Bush managed to increase turnout among his base, too (evangelicals). Bush's groundgame in 2004 was legit. In fact, second only perhaps to Obama's this year. There is a large gap in the ground game between the Obama and McCain campaigns. McCain's groundgame is nonexistent in states like Florida and Ohio. We'll see how this turns out, but I think much higher turnout (30% higher) means an Obama landslide, mostly because if the turnout is 30% higher it means you're getting a lot of first time voters and AA voters. not sure about that...I've gotten two calls from the Rep party asking to vote early, and if absentee to get the ballot back early
October 30, 200817 yr I will make final predictions on Sunday. As of now, I would say this: Obama 370 electoral votes McCain 168 electoral votes Popular vote: Obama 53 McCain 46 This is based on demographic projections in voter turnout in different states which I am making given the early voter turnout thus far. In addition, I think Obama could win GA, SC, and perhaps one or two more southern states, depending on how much the AA turnout increases. For example, traditionally, in GA, AA's make up about 24 percent of all voters in presidential elections, even though they make up 29 percent of all registered voters in the state. White voters in GA (let's just say they're 76 percent, even though you have a lot of Hispanics there, too) usually vote about 30% for Dems in that state. If the AA turnout exceeds 30 percent (let's call it 33 percent), Obama gets 98% of that vote, and Obama gets 25% of the remaining vote, thats: 32.34 +17.00 for a total of about 49.34. Give about 3 percent to Barr and other third party candidates, and your total vote in GA will be Obama 49.34, McCain 47.66. We know AA turnout is up tremendously in GA, we just won't know exactly how much until after the election. At the moment, AA's are accounting for about 38 percent of early voters. Early voters account for 20% of all registered voters through today. They have a few more days to vote. Assuming 75 percent turnout, we've already seen more than 25% of all votes cast in GA. This is all based on this particular turnout model I am using. If Obama gets AA voter turnout to abotu 33 percent and gets his young white supporters to go out and vote for him in GA (thus maintaining at least 25% of the white vote in GA), he's going to win there, too. In sum, all things being equal (no shift in the polls), it's all about turnout, and the bigger the turnout the more lopsided the victory will be. I'll predict on Sunday night. Do you mean the African american turn out or turn out overall? It was always conventional wisdom that the higher the turnout the bigger the victory for the dems. That didn't happen in 2004, and if we are going into unchartered waters in 2008, it's going to make for a very fun night. African Americans, young voters, and well educated voters. You're right about 2004 - except that Bush managed to increase turnout among his base, too (evangelicals). Bush's groundgame in 2004 was legit. In fact, second only perhaps to Obama's this year. There is a large gap in the ground game between the Obama and McCain campaigns. McCain's groundgame is nonexistent in states like Florida and Ohio. We'll see how this turns out, but I think much higher turnout (30% higher) means an Obama landslide, mostly because if the turnout is 30% higher it means you're getting a lot of first time voters and AA voters. not sure about that...I've gotten two calls from the Rep party asking to vote early, and if absentee to get the ballot back early The word "nonexistent" was meant to be an exaggeration. I've gotten more than 10 calls from the Obama campaign and they've knocked on my door at least 5 times. I already voted. I don't think there's much of a match here. Obama has many more offices and staffers in the state than McCain.
October 30, 200817 yr Author no denying that the Obama camp has been spectacular in their ground game, but I don't think you can say the McCain camp is doing an inadequate job in Florida. what good is to contact the same voter 10 times?
October 30, 200817 yr no denying that the Obama camp has been spectacular in their ground game, but I don't think you can say the McCain camp is doing an inadequate job in Florida. what good is to contact the same voter 10 times? It's well known among the political campaign experts that for every 12 contacts you get 1 voter to turnout and vote. In other words, the contact to success ratio is 12:1. As a result, contacting the same voter 10 times is actually not where you want to be - you need to contact that voter 2 more times. And contacting the voter 2 times is definitely way short of where you should be. I get what you're saying, but they've got a method to their strategy based on thorough research conducted over the course of many many presidential elections. This is more of a science than people realize. That's why the ground game is so important. Another thing the Obama campaign is applying is peer-to-peer contacts. Research has shown that peer-to-peer contacts are significantly more effective than the calls and door knocks from random strangers. As a result, they've put together a few million strong volunteers who's first task is to contact all their friends and persuade them to vote for Obama. Simultaneously, they apply the method I outlined above. To top it off, they have what is probably the most comprehensive voter database in the history of modern politics, and they're using advanced marketing strategies to identify undecided voters who may naturally lean Obama if they were provided with certain information on certain issues. So, they go out and specifically target those voters and provide them with the information that will hopefully persuade them to vote for Obama. For those of you on Obama's e-mail list, have you noticed that people get e-mails from the Obama campaign at different times? The same e-mails? Well, they do that for marketing purposes - they have a specific method on how to do that. I am not saying this just because I am a big Obama supporter. These guys are really really good. Top of the line. Think of Bush's GOTV drive in 2004 that targetted Evangelicals and make it broader and that's what it is.
October 30, 200817 yr He might not win Montana, North Dakota, or Georgia though I feel like that map is pretty close to what the real one will look like. I doubt ND will go to Obama though...
October 31, 200817 yr He might not win Montana, North Dakota, or Georgia though I feel like that map is pretty close to what the real one will look like. I doubt ND will go to Obama though... At this point I'd love to see a blowout like this. It'd help (hopefully) the republican party realize they badly need to change the way they operate.
October 31, 200817 yr They'd have no choice if that were to happen. I think that they would likely spend more time in denial than the Democrats did in the 1980s and early 2000s.
November 1, 200817 yr He might not win Montana, North Dakota, or Georgia though I feel like that map is pretty close to what the real one will look like. I doubt ND will go to Obama though... At this point I'd love to see a blowout like this. It'd help (hopefully) the republican party realize they badly need to change the way they operate. When Republicans spend like Democrats they lose . As a party they need to move back to being the party of fiscal conservatives and be less rigid on social issues .
November 2, 200817 yr Electoral Votes: McCain - 273 Obama - 265 Popular Vote: Obama - 50% McCain - 48% Senate: Democrats pick-up 8 seats House: Democrats pick-up 24 seats
November 2, 200817 yr Electoral Votes: McCain - 273 Obama - 265 Popular Vote: Obama - 50% McCain - 48% Senate: Democrats pick-up 8 seats House: Democrats pick-up 24 seats :lol wut? ok. how?
November 3, 200817 yr Final prediction... Popular Vote: Obama 53 McCain 46 Electoral vote: Obama 396 McCain 142 Swing states won by Obama: Florida, Ohio, PA, MO Red states won by Obama: MT, GA, VA, NC, and ND Closer than usual states: SC, MS, and LA. Blowout.
November 3, 200817 yr I think McCain takes at least 2/3 out of MT, GA, and ND. Of course, GA is the only one that really matters out of those. VA will definitely go Obama and I'd be willing to say NC as well. In all, I think McCain gets 180-190. I agree with that. I picked the high numbers because I have a feeling that Obama's GOTV effort/ground game will increase his share of the vote total in many states by 3-4 points, which could be enough for him to win in MT, GA, and ND. And AA turnout is going to be through the roof in the south, which is why I think that, along with the ground game, will propel Obama over the top in GA, NC, and VA. Either way, I think it's a blowout. The polls coming out today have Obama way up. I think he wins by about 7 points.
November 3, 200817 yr Obama 52 McCain 46 others 2 Obama 291 McCain 247 although I could easily see a scenario where Obama gets into the 360's , I still think most of the traditionally Republican states will go form McCain barely . I do think VA and CO are lost from McCains perspective. I think it will be a good night for Democrats. My only hope is Al Franken does not win , he is a douche bag .
November 3, 200817 yr Electoral Votes: McCain - 273 Obama - 265 Popular Vote: Obama - 50% McCain - 48% Senate: Democrats pick-up 8 seats House: Democrats pick-up 24 seats :lol wut? ok. how? If McCain carries virginia and colorado (which I dont think he will ) this scenario is possible , I dont see it happening but it is possible.
November 3, 200817 yr Electoral Votes: McCain - 273 Obama - 265 Popular Vote: Obama - 50% McCain - 48% Senate: Democrats pick-up 8 seats House: Democrats pick-up 24 seats :lol wut? ok. how? If McCain carries virginia and colorado (which I dont think he will ) this scenario is possible , I dont see it happening but it is possible. It's possible, unlikely in my estimation, but possible. I think he sees, or wishes for, McCain to win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. EDIT: This would be the map.
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