October 21, 200817 yr I chose not to include anyone that played in the Majors 1. Sean West A+ 2. Logan Morrison A+ 3. Graham Taylor A 4. Matt Dominguez A 5. Mike Stanton A 6. John Raynor B+ 7. Chris Coghlan B+ 8. Brett Sinkbeil B+ 9. Issac Galloway B+ 10. Aaron Thompson B On the whole the minor league talent level looks a lot more promising this time last year. Graham Taylor. Yikes.
October 21, 200817 yr I chose not to include anyone that played in the Majors 1. Sean West A+ 2. Logan Morrison A+ 3. Graham Taylor A 4. Matt Dominguez A 5. Mike Stanton A 6. John Raynor B+ 7. Chris Coghlan B+ 8. Brett Sinkbeil B+ 9. Issac Galloway B+ 10. Aaron Thompson B On the whole the minor league talent level looks a lot more promising this time last year. lmao jesus this list makes mets fans not look like homers Sorry but None of those prospects are A+ West just got done with TJ he is a B- because of injury issues alone Morrison has good potential but around a B prospect Stanton was in hit a homer a month ballpark before he gets an A rating he shuld get to the FSL and cut down upon the K's even if his second half improvement B/B- Raynor? LMAO C Dominguez - see Stanton = B sinkbeil lucky to get a C after this year Issac needs t oget out of rookie leagues and produce, C- thompson looks like a Loogy at most now C Taylor shouldnt even be on the list Skipworth should be around a B- for potential purposes the only A prospect we "could" have is maybin atm and he is more of an A - for his K concerns
October 21, 200817 yr I chose not to include anyone that played in the Majors 1. Sean West A+ 2. Logan Morrison A+ 3. Graham Taylor A 4. Matt Dominguez A 5. Mike Stanton A 6. John Raynor B+ 7. Chris Coghlan B+ 8. Brett Sinkbeil B+ 9. Issac Galloway B+ 10. Aaron Thompson B On the whole the minor league talent level looks a lot more promising this time last year. lmao jesus this list makes mets fans not look like homers Sorry but None of those prospects are A+ West just got done with TJ he is a B- because of injury issues alone Morrison has good potential but around a B prospect Stanton was in hit a homer a month ballpark before he gets an A rating he shuld get to the FSL and cut down upon the K's even if his second half improvement B/B- Raynor? LMAO C Dominguez - see Stanton = B sinkbeil lucky to get a C after this year Issac needs t oget out of rookie leagues and produce, C- thompson looks like a Loogy at most now C Taylor shouldnt even be on the list Skipworth should be around a B- for potential purposes the only A prospect we "could" have is maybin atm and he is more of an A - for his K concerns I'd tier the system A Maybin Stanton B+ Morrison Dominguez B Coghlan G. Sanchez West Tucker Skipworth Hand Mobley B- Thompson Sinkbiel Cruz C+ Cousins Raynor Petersen Doolittle Wood Maybes - Galloway, Delgado, Winters, Leroux, Marceaux, etc I would have Volstad A, McPherson B, Baker B-, Andino C+, if they were eligible. G. Taylor is really not a top 30 prospect to even consider.
October 21, 200817 yr I chose not to include anyone that played in the Majors 1. Sean West A+ 2. Logan Morrison A+ 3. Graham Taylor A 4. Matt Dominguez A 5. Mike Stanton A 6. John Raynor B+ 7. Chris Coghlan B+ 8. Brett Sinkbeil B+ 9. Issac Galloway B+ 10. Aaron Thompson B On the whole the minor league talent level looks a lot more promising this time last year. lmao jesus this list makes mets fans not look like homers Sorry but None of those prospects are A+ West just got done with TJ he is a B- because of injury issues alone Morrison has good potential but around a B prospect Stanton was in hit a homer a month ballpark before he gets an A rating he shuld get to the FSL and cut down upon the K's even if his second half improvement B/B- Raynor? LMAO C Dominguez - see Stanton = B sinkbeil lucky to get a C after this year Issac needs t oget out of rookie leagues and produce, C- thompson looks like a Loogy at most now C Taylor shouldnt even be on the list Skipworth should be around a B- for potential purposes the only A prospect we "could" have is maybin atm and he is more of an A - for his K concerns I'd tier the system A Maybin Stanton B+ Morrison Dominguez B Coghlan G. Sanchez West Tucker Skipworth Hand Mobley B- Thompson Sinkbiel Cruz C+ Cousins Raynor Petersen Doolittle Wood Maybes - Galloway, Delgado, Winters, Leroux, Marceaux, etc I would have Volstad A, McPherson B, Baker B-, Andino C+, if they were eligible. G. Taylor is really not a top 30 prospect to even consider. I understand the reasoning for stanton and we normally agree on most things lou, but I just cant give stanton that high of a grade yet till he proves it above the lower levels. I gotta go with a B+ till then, if he comes out in the FSL cuts down his ks and puts up 20 homeruns I will be more impressed then 40 in greensborro. I would most likely toss Mobley into B- too he is a nice pen arm though imo and perhaps put Cousins up to a B- as well instead of a C I still like his potentials depending on how he finishes up the AFL. just my two cents
October 21, 200817 yr I understand the reasoning for stanton and we normally agree on most things lou, but I just cant give stanton that high of a grade yet till he proves it above the lower levels. I gotta go with a B+ till then, if he comes out in the FSL cuts down his ks and puts up 20 homeruns I will be more impressed then 40 in greensborro. I would most likely toss Mobley into B- too he is a nice pen arm though imo and perhaps put Cousins up to a B- as well instead of a C I still like his potentials depending on how he finishes up the AFL. just my two cents Yea, I have no problems with your changes, but it's also his age in greensboro. I mean, College kids don't hit like that. I'm very high on Mobley. I think he's our 2nd best RP prospect overall.
October 21, 200817 yr Raynor is a non-prospect. Anyone that wants to promote Raynor while wanting to give up on Hermida should die in a fire.
October 22, 200817 yr Raynor is a non-prospect. Anyone that wants to promote Raynor while wanting to give up on Hermida should die in a fire. Well, he's certainly a prospect... just not an upper-tier one
October 24, 200817 yr Raynor is a non-prospect. Anyone that wants to promote Raynor while wanting to give up on Hermida should die in a fire. Hahah i agree 100 percent except for the Fire part Hermida was a top prospect and produced some of the best numbers in AA at the age of 21 while Raynor has put pretty avg numbers except for the Above Avg number of SB but catchers still have better arms in the MLB rather than the Minors and in a comparrison Hermida was at least a B Prospect while Raynor is at most a B-
October 24, 200817 yr Can someone please explain to me why everyone is doubting John Raynor is capable of being an everyday player at the major league level? He has produced at every level he has played: College: All Conf. Short season A: all star Low A: All Star (Marlins Minor league player of the year, too) Double AA: All star (this after skipping High A ball) AZ Fall league: All Star I understand that his numbers aren't outstanding, but they are solid, and he has elevated his game at each level, and made the necessary adjustments to succeed. Its obvious he has the skills, and work ethic to do so.
October 24, 200817 yr Can someone please explain to me why everyone is doubting John Raynor is capable of being an everyday player at the major league level? He has produced at every level he has played: College: All Conf. Short season A: all star Low A: All Star (Marlins Minor league player of the year, too) Double AA: All star (this after skipping High A ball) AZ Fall league: All Star I understand that his numbers aren't outstanding, but they are solid, and he has elevated his game at each level, and made the necessary adjustments to succeed. Its obvious he has the skills, and work ethic to do so. You have to look at things like he is old for his level, he is a poor defensive option in CF and maybe average at a corner, his rising K rate, his BABIP was .401 this year, and he only displays gap power. When a player like this jumps levels to AAA and especially the bigs, these things all don't keep staying constant. He is going to be attacked more with better pitches (especially breaking stuff) because there is relatively no threat of the longball and because of his poor contact numbers. This is going to mean a lot less balls in ball in play, and he really needs to get a lot of balls in play to be successful. That .401 BABIP is outrageous. That is enormous overachieving (for comparison in Carolina, Coghlan had a .335 BABIP, G. Sanchez a .340, Maybin .380), and does not bode well for when that stabilizes in the .330s. Literally talking about a 50+ drop in batting average right on the spot, and where would that leave him? And what happens when that gets to the bigs? Now when you look at Coghlan and G. Sanchez, I expect them to continue their production because they have amazing BB/Ks and solid BABIP numbers. Maybin, who also got lucky in 2008, it's different because he is 21, his swing is projectable to average and power, he is amazing defensively, and can play CF. Raynor does not have anything on these three guys. These are very different prospect classes and these sentiments are already seen in the front office, where Fleming detailed only three future starters in Carolina this year. I don't hate Raynor, I think he is a good prospect and should be a MLB player, but the problem is people around here just look at his 900+ OPS scores, that .400 OBP and a billion SB, and see a future lead off man and not really judge who he is. I like his BB rate. I like his speed. The average is excellent so even when it comes down for the aforementioned reasons he should be passable. The gap power is at least something and you aren't getting a -0- like a lot of other guys. And hey, he IS performing so maybe he is just the outlier to the situation and perfectly translates level to level. It's doubtful, but it's happened before. But for the bigs, to expect anything more than a .260/.325/.425 with speed, is really pushing it. He is not Granderson. He is not Rowand. He is not Victorino. He should get a shot at some point because the future outfield, unless they go the trade route, is Maybin, possibly Hermida, and then Cousins, Raynor, and Petersen. I'm rooting for him and would love him to prove me wrong, but anything more than a cool 5th OF for a few years is a bonus.
October 24, 200817 yr I am much more optimistic than Lou in reference to Raynor's ability to hit major league pitching. If you were to go by Lou's statistical inferences. Raynor would have to hit like .375 for him to be able to considered viable .300 hitter in the majors that his average is flukey. I have a hard time accepting this as anything but overanalysis. If a guy can hit he can hit. In the minors he has not really struggled with the breaking ball as let's say Maybin has in past seasons. He does have a lot of strikeouts but also alot of walks that means he sees a lot of pitches in his at bats. Many projectives are being made on a player who has had only 2 seasons of pro ball and has excelled everywhere he has been. It seems many look for reasons for him to fail just because he can't possibly be as good as he has been playing. Couldn't it be possible he just is a good ballplayer?
October 24, 200817 yr No one is looking at reasons for him to fail. What we do is look into their numbers, see what level they are at, how old they are and look at comparables to help us infer if he can be a quality ballplayer to a superstar or nothing. It doesn't always work, but it's a very solid method instead of just looking at numbers blindly and deciding that someone will be an all star leadoff man.
October 24, 200817 yr I am much more optimistic than Lou in reference to Raynor's ability to hit major league pitching. If you were to go by Lou's statistical inferences. Raynor would have to hit like .375 for him to be able to considered viable .300 hitter in the majors that his average is flukey. I have a hard time accepting this as anything but overanalysis. Or, what he actually did. I don't make these numbers up. If a guy can hit he can hit. In the minors he has not really struggled with the breaking ball as let's say Maybin has in past seasons. He does have a lot of strikeouts but also alot of walks that means he sees a lot of pitches in his at bats. Many projectives are being made on a player who has had only 2 seasons of pro ball and has excelled everywhere he has been. It seems many look for reasons for him to fail just because he can't possibly be as good as he has been playing. Couldn't it be possible he just is a good ballplayer? He has a huge college and minor league track record now across levels, and is OLDER, so it's very easy to project him. I don't want him to fail. It is being realistic to the situation. Guys with .401 BABIPs/.900 OPS, gap power, and enormous K rates are not going to translate into big league starters even if they walk a little bit and grab some steals. I think his peak is a .750-.775 OPSing player, but more than likely he turns into a bench outfielder with a low 700 OPS with speed. That's awesome for where the Marlins drafted him, but this is not a corner starter, which is my main point.
October 25, 200817 yr If Raynor was an amazing OF with a great arm that could run down every ball hit anywhere in the OF then this would be a different story, but he is an indifferent fielder that could maybe play LF well. Combine that with a guy that has no power and doesn't look to hit .325 and he's no great shakes. He is the kind of guy that could hit .300 and still have a .725 OPS (or lower) and I doubt his SB numbers will translate into a basepath dominating speed demon, more likely he is a guy that can take advantage of middling catchers and slow-to-the-plate pitchers to put up 25+SB. All that said, I want him to be the greatest thing since canned beer, but there is no reason to think he will be even as good as Hermida's current 'dissapointing' season, much less what Jeremy could do.
October 25, 200817 yr I am much more optimistic than Lou in reference to Raynor's ability to hit major league pitching. If you were to go by Lou's statistical inferences. Raynor would have to hit like .375 for him to be able to considered viable .300 hitter in the majors that his average is flukey. I have a hard time accepting this as anything but overanalysis. Or, what he actually did. I don't make these numbers up. If a guy can hit he can hit. In the minors he has not really struggled with the breaking ball as let's say Maybin has in past seasons. He does have a lot of strikeouts but also alot of walks that means he sees a lot of pitches in his at bats. Many projectives are being made on a player who has had only 2 seasons of pro ball and has excelled everywhere he has been. It seems many look for reasons for him to fail just because he can't possibly be as good as he has been playing. Couldn't it be possible he just is a good ballplayer? He has a huge college and minor league track record now across levels, and is OLDER, so it's very easy to project him. I don't want him to fail. It is being realistic to the situation. Guys with .401 BABIPs/.900 OPS, gap power, and enormous K rates are not going to translate into big league starters even if they walk a little bit and grab some steals. I think his peak is a .750-.775 OPSing player, but more than likely he turns into a bench outfielder with a low 700 OPS with speed. That's awesome for where the Marlins drafted him, but this is not a corner starter, which is my main point. Why are you so confident in Gaby Sanchez, who was also old for every level, and whos power potential is really no better than Raynors? I know you like his BB/K ratio, but its doubtful that holds up against better pitching.
October 25, 200817 yr If Raynor was an amazing OF with a great arm that could run down every ball hit anywhere in the OF then this would be a different story, but he is an indifferent fielder that could maybe play LF well. Combine that with a guy that has no power and doesn't look to hit .325 and he's no great shakes. He is the kind of guy that could hit .300 and still have a .725 OPS (or lower) and I doubt his SB numbers will translate into a basepath dominating speed demon, more likely he is a guy that can take advantage of middling catchers and slow-to-the-plate pitchers to put up 25+SB. All that said, I want him to be the greatest thing since canned beer, but there is no reason to think he will be even as good as Hermida's current 'dissapointing' season, much less what Jeremy could do. Raynor is a very good glove both in CF or LF, and he doesn't have as bad of an arm as you are being led to believe. What source do you have that he is an indifferent fielder?
October 25, 200817 yr Raynor is a very good glove both in CF or LF, and he doesn't have as bad of an arm as you are being led to believe. What source do you have that he is an indifferent fielder? It is my understanding, from numerous scouting reports, that he takes bad routes to the ball which seems to indicate to me that he has trouble judging the ball off the bat. He is certainly fast enough but then so was Reggie. Also, his arm is considered weak in most reports, at best I hear it described as average. I do like his doubles stroke, which I think translates better to the bigs than a bunch of MiLB HRs, and I think he can slap a few into the gap, but I have serious concerns that, where he is now at age 24, that he could be a high-OBP guy. And high-OBP is the only way he could contribute. He will never have a lot of power. If he is thought of as a 4th/5th OF that can bring some speed when needed, then he could be a valuable part of the team, but he is unlikely to be a good starting position player.
October 25, 200817 yr 1) Cameron Maybin B+ I'm sure a lot of guys will give him A's, but there is one stat that really, really, really worries me: v.s. RHP: 33 walks, 96 strikeouts. I'm sure a lot of his supporters will bring up that, from June on, his strikeouts lowered and ergo his bb/k increased. But I'm unsure of what the double split it (v.s. RHP from June foward), and seeing that number is very concerning for me. But the 22% LD from June forward is also very promising. 2) Logan Morrison B+ Hits for big average, has very good bb/k, and a lot of those doubles are going to turn into HRs when he changes parks and gets older. And he's apparently athletic enough to play the OF. Wow. A 21.1% LD% is very very nice to see, but you'd also like to see him hit more FB and less GBs. 3) Mike Stanton B+ When he performs well in Jup, that's raising to an A, maybe even A+ depending on how he does, and he's going to #1. People like to bring up the strikeouts but he had a .057 BB/K from June first on. Not amazing, but that is still a very solid ratio. He cut he's K's down to 25%, still high but a lot more bearable than the well over 30% he was at, and raised his walk rate to 15%, very very very nice. And of course, you know, the whole 39 HRs from a 18 year old. And he's athletic enough to play CF as of now, although he very likely will lose that ability down the road. 4) Matt Dominguez B+ Gold glove 3rd baseman are always very nice. Gold glove 3rd baseman who display a lot of power = WOOO. Missing 50 games at the start of the season, he finished the year with 18 HRs. That means that, at that pace and expanding his games played to the full 138, he would have been on pace to hit 28 HRs and 25 doubles. A .203 ISO from an 18 year old is very very very nice, even if it is Boro. Want to see his plate discipline improve. Although not Stanton like, he still nearly K'd 20% of the time (19.7) and walked only 7.8% for a 0.41 BB/K. But at 18 years old, that's something I expect to develop. He'll probably get a B from most people, and I'm sure a lot are going to say how can you give Doming a B+ while keeping Stanton at that rating to, but oh well. 5) Chris Coghlan B The grade is based more off position scarity than actual production and you could probably drop it to B-. Something I wonder is if the FO might get creative and, if another 3b is picked up in a trade, we try moving Do-Ming to second? Regardless, Coghlan should be a solid major league, and with his BB/K and LD% he's very safe pick for doing just that. 6) Sean West B- Needs better control but loved his ability to avoid XBH this past season 7) Ryan Tucker B- Now that he's reliever only, stock fell a lot for me 8) Gaby Sanchez B- His RHP numbers still worry me, but with his speed and defense he should be a solid 1b. It's just that 1b is also the easiest position to fulfill.... 9) Kyle Skipworth B- Very unimpressive pro debut but still very projectable, and atleast got better in his second month (0.21 BB/K and .083 ISO in July, 0.44 BB/K and .169 ISO in August). Guys struggling in their pro debut is nothing new, let's see how he does next season. Could have gone as high as 7 for me. I don't really have a 10, it's very interchangeable with a lot of C+ guys like Thompson, Hand, Raynor, Cousins, DLC, Galloway, and so forth 9 b's is a very very nice system, especially considering two of them could be A's What are your thoughts on Bryan Peterson?
October 25, 200817 yr Author his walk rates are lower, k rates way up...giles had an awesome bb/k in the minors, then his amazing bb/k in the majors, and Petersen is striking out almost twice as much as he walks. Nice power so he's another interchangeable C+ for me but I don't really see the Giles comp. If he became a perennial .400 OBP guy I certainly wouldn't complain though... But right now he's looking more like, what, a .270/.330 avg/obp guy? He should be able to SLG, .200 ISO should be realistic, and if he does that mean's he could hover around .800 OPS. So that's cool. I just don't see the comp to a guy who constantly put up .400 OBPs and a career .900+ OPS.
October 25, 200817 yr He has a huge college and minor league track record now across levels, and is OLDER, so it's very easy to project him. I don't want him to fail. It is being realistic to the situation. Guys with .401 BABIPs/.900 OPS, gap power, and enormous K rates are not going to translate into big league starters even if they walk a little bit and grab some steals. I think his peak is a .750-.775 OPSing player, but more than likely he turns into a bench outfielder with a low 700 OPS with speed. That's awesome for where the Marlins drafted him, but this is not a corner starter, which is my main point. Why are you so confident in Gaby Sanchez, who was also old for every level, and whos power potential is really no better than Raynors? I know you like his BB/K ratio, but its doubtful that holds up against better pitching. Gaby Sanchez has ENORMOUS power potential over Raynor. That isn't even debatable. Raynor slaps doubles and triples and hits a few bombs. Gaby HITS massive amounts of doubles and should be able to muscle out 18-20 HR a year. Raynor does not have double digit HR potential. There are other factors here. The K rate shows how much contact Gaby makes, so even if that declines, he's still hitting the ball average/above average. He's also not going to be constantly attacked like Raynor, because he has that power potential to turn mistakes into bombs and because he is extremely less likely to K. His contact rates and walk rates suggest he will be able to hit for average also. Raynor doesn't have these things. Also notice how Gaby's production - a .917 OPS - came with the much better BB/K AND a realistic .340 BABIP. Raynor hit less than Gaby, at .887, with an enormous .401 BABIP. Gaby didn't overachieve, Raynor did. On level advancements, these things will start to seriously show. Gaby is also a plus defender, while Raynor is not a good defensive player. It's not even close. These are two completely different prospects. Gaby should settle into a low 800 OPSing player in the mold of a Loney/S. Casey. Raynor is more like a low 700 OPSing player with some speed.
October 26, 200817 yr He has a huge college and minor league track record now across levels, and is OLDER, so it's very easy to project him. I don't want him to fail. It is being realistic to the situation. Guys with .401 BABIPs/.900 OPS, gap power, and enormous K rates are not going to translate into big league starters even if they walk a little bit and grab some steals. I think his peak is a .750-.775 OPSing player, but more than likely he turns into a bench outfielder with a low 700 OPS with speed. That's awesome for where the Marlins drafted him, but this is not a corner starter, which is my main point. Why are you so confident in Gaby Sanchez, who was also old for every level, and whos power potential is really no better than Raynors? I know you like his BB/K ratio, but its doubtful that holds up against better pitching. Gaby Sanchez has ENORMOUS power potential over Raynor. That isn't even debatable. Raynor slaps doubles and triples and hits a few bombs. Gaby HITS massive amounts of doubles and should be able to muscle out 18-20 HR a year. Raynor does not have double digit HR potential. There are other factors here. The K rate shows how much contact Gaby makes, so even if that declines, he's still hitting the ball average/above average. He's also not going to be constantly attacked like Raynor, because he has that power potential to turn mistakes into bombs and because he is extremely less likely to K. His contact rates and walk rates suggest he will be able to hit for average also. Raynor doesn't have these things. Also notice how Gaby's production - a .917 OPS - came with the much better BB/K AND a realistic .340 BABIP. Raynor hit less than Gaby, at .887, with an enormous .401 BABIP. Gaby didn't overachieve, Raynor did. On level advancements, these things will start to seriously show. Gaby is also a plus defender, while Raynor is not a good defensive player. It's not even close. These are two completely different prospects. Gaby should settle into a low 800 OPSing player in the mold of a Loney/S. Casey. Raynor is more like a low 700 OPSing player with some speed. I guess I just dont see the power potential, and his stats dont really show it either. If his career HR rate in the minors travels with him to MLB, he will be lucky to ever get 15 in a season. He looks more like an 8-10 HR/year guy, as at his current rate he would need over 700 at bats to get to 20 HRs. Will that improve? Maybe, I have my doubts though. I think we are looking at little more than a spot starter at 1B who will hit an occasional double and very rare HR.
October 26, 200817 yr I guess I just dont see the power potential, and his stats dont really show it either. If his career HR rate in the minors travels with him to MLB, he will be lucky to ever get 15 in a season. He looks more like an 8-10 HR/year guy, as at his current rate he would need over 700 at bats to get to 20 HRs. Will that improve? Maybe, I have my doubts though. I think we are looking at little more than a spot starter at 1B who will hit an occasional double and very rare HR. His stats absolutely show he'll hit the 15-20 range. He's hitting 40+ doubles a year in 130ish games, and his career minor league resume he has 46 HR in 1435 AB. His minor league average to 600AB (about how many a starter gets in the bigs) is 19 HR. These aren't skewed to lower levels either, as his best HR year just occurred. As aforementioned everywhere, it's very likely Gaby transitions to the big leagues because of his BB/K, contact rates, average potential, adequate power potential, etc. He will be able to handle level jumps. He is a good hitter. He may not display top upside like an Adrian Gonzalez or Justin Morneau to become a 30+ HR monster, so I agree with you in the "spot" starter idea (I would recategorize that as 'not a longterm starter' rather than spot however), but Gaby should produce typical lines around .290/.350/.450 give or take 25 points. That's a good player.
October 26, 200817 yr He has a huge college and minor league track record now across levels, and is OLDER, so it's very easy to project him. I don't want him to fail. It is being realistic to the situation. Guys with .401 BABIPs/.900 OPS, gap power, and enormous K rates are not going to translate into big league starters even if they walk a little bit and grab some steals. I think his peak is a .750-.775 OPSing player, but more than likely he turns into a bench outfielder with a low 700 OPS with speed. That's awesome for where the Marlins drafted him, but this is not a corner starter, which is my main point. Why are you so confident in Gaby Sanchez, who was also old for every level, and whos power potential is really no better than Raynors? I know you like his BB/K ratio, but its doubtful that holds up against better pitching. Gaby Sanchez has ENORMOUS power potential over Raynor. That isn't even debatable. Raynor slaps doubles and triples and hits a few bombs. Gaby HITS massive amounts of doubles and should be able to muscle out 18-20 HR a year. Raynor does not have double digit HR potential. There are other factors here. The K rate shows how much contact Gaby makes, so even if that declines, he's still hitting the ball average/above average. He's also not going to be constantly attacked like Raynor, because he has that power potential to turn mistakes into bombs and because he is extremely less likely to K. His contact rates and walk rates suggest he will be able to hit for average also. Raynor doesn't have these things. Also notice how Gaby's production - a .917 OPS - came with the much better BB/K AND a realistic .340 BABIP. Raynor hit less than Gaby, at .887, with an enormous .401 BABIP. Gaby didn't overachieve, Raynor did. On level advancements, these things will start to seriously show. Gaby is also a plus defender, while Raynor is not a good defensive player. It's not even close. These are two completely different prospects. Gaby should settle into a low 800 OPSing player in the mold of a Loney/S. Casey. Raynor is more like a low 700 OPSing player with some speed. You are totally offbase by saying Raynor is not a good defemsive player. Give me one place where you read that or seen that. The knock on Raynor is that some say he has a subpar arm most places says he has an average throwing arm. As a matter of fact you will find more comments of him having a good arm than you wil find of him having a weak arm. A player that makes bad cuts on the ball is Amezaga and most everyone praises his defense in the outfield. Raynor will probably show to be a much better defender than Amezaga (I am just speculating here) because he is a natural outfielder
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