FanGraphs has these awesome sections on their player pages that #1) shows the amount of what pitches a player has seen and #2) showing the rate a player swings, his contact, and if he's swinging at stuff out of the zone or in the zone.

 

For all the talk that Maybin shouldn't hit 8 because he won't see fastballs:

He has seen a FB 57% of the time. Emilio, in the #1 spot, has seen a FB 60% of the time. The ML average last year was 60%. In other words, he is seeing a ton of FBs. Someone who doesn't see FBs is Dan Uggla, who has only seen 50% FBs for the second year running now. Or Miguel Olivo, who has only seen a FB in the mid-40's for several years now

 

The main thing is that, when it comes to secondary pitches, Maybin is seeing a slider 30% of the time. The ML average last year was 15%. So he's seeing double the amount of sliders than a normal player.

 

Now it should be noted that there is still "noise" here. 24% of the pitches Maybin has seen has been untrackable. At the end of the season, this goes down to the 1-2% range. Small sample size is hurting here.

 

Also, to all the "Maybin just gets junk" thing

 

58.8% of the pitches he has seen have been in the strike zone. 51% is the ML average.

 

Now for the real problem:

 

Maybin has swung at things outside of the strike zone 25.7%. The ML average is 25.5%. He's doing fine here.

 

Maybin has swung at things inside the strike zone 72% of the time. The ML average is 65.5% of the time. This normally wouldn't be an issue, but why it is:

 

Maybin's rate of making contact with balls inside of the zone is just 75%. This is really, really bad. The ML average is 88%.

 

In other words, he is not hitting the pitches he is suppose to be hitting. He is having major contact issues.

 

So yes, it seems the issue is still that he can not recognize sliders from fastballs.

 

The problem is, he's now in a league where pitches can now throw sliders for strikes.

 

Looking at these numbers, I severely doubt he'd be approached any differently at any other spot in the line up.

 

He has a whopping 71% first pitch strike rate. The ML average is 58%. That means that, out of his 31 Pas, only 9 have been 1-0 counts, 22 times he has started 0-1.

 

This also doesn't appear to be just a thing that has only just now started happening. In both his '07 and '08 call ups, he's been around the same in contact rates. His career contact of balls in the strike zone is just 78%.

 

AAA definitely might not be the worst idea in the world. He needs to be able to recognize the difference between a FB and a slider if he wants to have ML success. Though also unfortunately, the only way to learn a ML slider is the have experience in the major leagues. Growing pains suck but as is said a billion times, not everybody is Hanley and Cabrera.

Erg.

Good stretch of games for him to work on stuff at least. Two lefties (perfect time for Cody to get hot as a side note) and wild as hell Cabrera. They'll be dishing up some junk. Plus the entire Nats pen, and then the Pirates. Who actually have been OK, but I don't believe that holding up for a second.

:goodpost

 

how are his numbers as far as getting deep into counts? if his 'swinging at strikes' % is higher than league average, maybe he could benefit from being more selective with what he is swinging at (strike or not). A change in plate approach might allow him to get a better feel for an AB, and force pitchers hands a little more as far as getting their breaking stuff in the zone.

 

here's hoping he can continue to improve. nice work, Nny.

Well the sample size is still an issue on this, but 75% contact rate on strikezone pitches is a worry

:goodpost

 

how are his numbers as far as getting deep into counts? if his 'swinging at strikes' % is higher than league average, maybe he could benefit from being more selective with what he is swinging at (strike or not). A change in plate approach might allow him to get a better feel for an AB, and force pitchers hands a little more as far as getting their breaking stuff in the zone.

 

here's hoping he can continue to improve. nice work, Nny.

 

Don't know how to really quantify the first one. His pitches per plate appearence though is 3.65 though, which isn't good.

 

As far as the second thing, that was also my general assumption, that he needs to be more selective. But you also have to look at it that the pitchers are also going right after him, tons of balls within the strike zone.

His last game he did draw 2 walks, so it seems he was trying something new. He did whiff his other 3 AB, but still. If he goes 1-3 with 2 BB, we all love him. 0-3 and 2 BB, worried. Another 50 PA should give us a solid determination.

Don't know how to really quantify [getting deep into counts]. His pitches per plate appearence though is 3.65 though, which isn't good.

 

Yes you do! That is a very good way of measuring it, thanks.

 

I like to hope that these are precisely the types of problems that good coaching/experience can fix.

 

Still so early, though. Remember how awesome he was in September? Man, that was great.

His last game he did draw 2 walks, so it seems he was trying something new. He did whiff his other 3 AB, but still. If he goes 1-3 with 2 BB, we all love him. 0-3 and 2 BB, worried. Another 50 PA should give us a solid determination.

 

He certainly needs a bit more time. You gotta try not to be too rash, especially with your top prospect.

Don't wanna f* with his head either, for what it's worth. Of course with this, I'm not sure if it'd be better for him to work it out at the ML-level or to be demoted to work out some kinks (not sure if he'll quite be able to work out those kinks, but that's another story). Of course that's a decision for Freddi, Fleming, etc. to make.

I'd still be worried because his contact rate has been absolute atrocious.

 

When he makes contact, he's doing fine. He has a .375 BABIP, a 14.3 LD% (which isn't great but not horrible either). In ABs where he didn't strike out, he's hitting .375.

 

And the problem is, his contact might continually be an issue. I mean, it's still only 120 PAs, still a small sample size, but he's had a contact problem every single year he's been in the majors. Projections are projections and nothing to be taken as fact, but CHONE projected him to strike out 37.2% of the time (he's King 42% atm). He struck out 32% of the time last year, and that was in AA.

 

His contact rates are just really scary to me.

I'd still be worried because his contact rate has been absolute atrocious.

 

When he makes contact, he's doing fine. He has a .375 BABIP, a 14.3 LD% (which isn't great but not horrible either). In ABs where he didn't strike out, he's hitting .375.

 

And the problem is, his contact might still be an issue. I mean, it's still only 120 PAs, still a small sample size, but he's had a contact problem every single year he's been in the majors. Projections are projections and nothing to be taken as fact, but CHONE projected him to strike out 37.2% of the time (he's King 42% atm). He struck out 32% of the time last year, and that was in AA.

 

His contact rates are just really scary to me.

 

Can't really blame you. His K rates and contact rates are indeed scary. It's the main thing (and maybe the only thing) that could hold back his development, IMO.

Very interesting. I had been thinking it was more due to chasing pitches out of the zone.

How do you get all these stats?

This info is pretty awesome.

Wow cool info. I had noticed he was swinging through a bunch of good pitches up there that I thought he should kill.

Last game on wed he did seem to be trying to takemore ptiches but some of the pitches were there for smacking.

It's all available on FanGraph's player pages.