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Projecting our prospects future lines


Nny
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I thought this would be fun :D

 

Basically what do you think the best case, most likely case, and worst case line for our top prospects being (I'm only doing hitters because pitchers are basically impossible to project). Personally going the hitters in ramps top-20 cuz to me those are the only names that really matter. Not doing Skipworth though because I really don't want to project him right now lol...

 

Mike Stanton

Best Case: Keep's his K's in the low 20% and mashes 50+ HRs

Line: .280/.380/.600

A couple players with comparable lines being Prince Fielder and Griffey's prime.

 

I suppose another best case would be his K's keep being a problem but he raises his BB% to the 20% range and becomes Mark McGwire's .260/.400/.600 line

 

Most likely: His K's continue to be a problem as he strikes out every 3-4 PAs and hinder his average, while a power thread, he's more a 30-40+ HR guy

Line: .250/.340/.500

A couple players with comparable lines being a less walk version Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard (The past couple year version). Actually, I'd say Ryan Howard's past couple years is damn near what to expect. walks around 10%, K's around 32%, .250/.335 AVG/OBP. The question is just will he be a 30-40+ HR guy or will he be the 45-50+ HR guy that Howard continues to be.

 

Worst case: His k's and contact just are too much of a problem and it crushes his average and hurts other parts of his game.

Line: .230/.330/.450

A couple players with somewhat comparable lines being Russell Branyan and the post 07 ASB Dan Uggla (although his K rate has actually really improved and is in the low 20% lol)

 

Logan Morrison

Best case: Turns into a power hitter with ~40 HR hitter while hitting for average and walking

Line: .300/.400/.530

Comparable lines: Mark Teixeria, Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez

 

Most likely case: HRs only sit in the 30 range while still hitting for average

line: .285/.385/.485

comparable lines: tons. You look at his projected ISO and BB rates and K rates and it fits the mold of basically every .850-.900 OPS player. To just stay with 1b's though, Morneue is probably the best example.

 

Worst case scenerio: His power flops, his HR total and ISO in jupiter weren't a park and fluke thing and we only look at around low 20 hrs and doubles per year.

line: .270/.350/.430

comparable lines: projected gaby sanchez! hahaha

 

It should also be noted that Logan's best case has a lot more chance of happening than Stanton or Maybins, while his worst case has a lot less chance of happening.

 

Cameron Maybin

Best case: His K rate cuts down to the low 20's, his swing changes and starts turning out more LD and FB and he grows into his body and churns out 30+ HRs, he swipes bases, wins gold gloves, saves babies and feeds the poor

line: .275/.360/.500

comparable lines: a bit more K prone Carlos Beltran

 

What most likely happens: Still K's every 3-4 ABs, his LD/FB rates improve but is still only 25+ HR guy, but still stealing bases and winning gold gloves

line: .250/.340/.445

comparable lines: i mean, we're seriously looking at Mike Cameron being re-incarnated. Who is very underrated and a very good CFer who's worth normally 4-5 wins thanks to his to his defense.

 

Worst case scenerio: he sucks. K's too much, his swing never changes and he churns out 60% GB rate completely crushing his power

line: .260/.350/.370

comparable lines: Bonifacio with walks and power lol. Still makes roughly an average to above average CF thanks to SBs and defense.

 

Matt Dominguez

Best case: Generates 30+ HR power, improves his patience, and plays GG defense

line: .290/.360/.500

Comparable lines: He'll likely never walk as much as him but Scott Rolen

 

Most likely case: Still a legit power threat but more in the 25 HR range, but his lack of patience hurts his other peripherals.

line: .270/.310/.450

Comparable lines: Joe Crede is who most people bring up, and is good comp, but with his K rates Adrian Beltre is probably a better comparison.

 

Wort case: his power doesn't really improve much, more of a 20 HR guy, but his lack of discipline crush his BB/K and average

line: .250/.300/.400

Comparable lines: Pedro Feliz. Although again like Maybin, with defense this is still an average to above average 3b.

 

Gaby Sanchez

Covered a lot but oh well haha

Best Case: his power in AA and Greensboro was absolutely legit and he churns out 30+ doubles and 20+ HRs

line:.300/.390/.460

 

Most likely case: Just 15-20 HRs, 20+ doubles, but still awesome bb/k and good average

line: .280/.360/.450

comparable lines: worse case logan. WE'VE COME FULL CIRCLE!!!

 

Worst case scenerio: his power in jupiter wasn't a fluke. he struggles to break double digit HRs and his lack of power allows pitchers to attack him more, hurting his bb/k and average

line: .265/.330/.400

comparable lines: an even worse version of Doug Mientkiewicz

 

Chris Coghlan

Best case: He generates the power he had in Greensboro, becoming a 15-20 HR and 30+ 2b guy

line: .310/.390/.460

Comprable line: Derek Jeter, and equally as sh*tty as SS! HEY-O! I'm here all week.

 

Most likely case: He gives you some gap power but lucky to break double digit HRs while posting 1:1 BB/K and good average

line: .290/.370/.410

Comparable line: Yunel Escobar, a good Mark Loretta

 

Worst case scenerio: his power really starts to hurt, pitchers attack him more, which hurts his bb/k and average

line: .275/.340/.370

Comparable line: our own version of david eckstein. maybe even just as scrappy!

 

Jake Smolinski

Look at Chris Coghlan. Repeat.

 

Scott Cousins

Best case: Builds into 25+ HR power while staying solid in every other field

Line: .270/.330/.470

comparable line: a better range version of Michael Cuddyer, aaron rowand

 

Most likely case: more of a ~20 HR guy while his plate discipline hurts his average

line: .255/.310/.430

comparable line: Khalil Greene, although if you want to stay with the OF a less walk version of the non-roid Gary Matthews JR.

 

Worst case: his discipline hurts him and he's more of a 15 HR guy

line: .240/.290/.370

Comparable line: Jeff Francouer! he at worst becomes atlanta's top prospect! WOO

 

Bryan Petersen

Best Case: Churns out 20+ HRs and 20+ SBs while posting good average and obp

line: .275/.345/.435

comparable line: i'm getting too tired for this

 

Most likely: 10-15+ Hrs and 10-15+ SBs

line: .260/.325/.400

comparable line: f*** you

 

worst case: his power outage this year is real and he can't break double digit HRs

line: .245/.300/.350

comparable line: players who suck really badly

 

Isaac Galloway

Best case: he turns into a legit 30/30 guy any one season and is able to hit for average regardless of his poor discipline

line: .275/.320/.475

comparable line: A less powerful Alfonso Soriano

 

Most likely: A 20/20 guy with plate discipline issues

line: .260/.300/.420

comparable line: maybe latter

 

worst case: he doesn't make the majors cuz he K's too much and doesn't walk and doesn't develop enough power

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Such a great idea! It was an enjoyment to read your projections, especially your comparisons to current/past MLB players. I was just thinking about how amazing it would be if we could get the best case scenario out of Stanton. Hanley 3 and Stanton 4...HOLY sh*t, haha. I'll be down in St. Louis this weekend to see the futures game. I'm going to try to get a ball autographed by Stanton and hopefully I'll get a picture with him too. I'll update you on how it goes when I get back.

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great thread Nny. I'd shudder to see a Skipworth projection at this point, lol.

 

I like the Maybin - Mike Cameron comparison.

 

 

That comparison has been made for years now. Personally, I wouldn't have been too happy if we traded Miguel Cabrera for Mike Cameron (in his prime).

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That comparison has been made for years now. Personally, I wouldn't have been too happy if we traded Miguel Cabrera for Mike Cameron (in his prime).

 

 

An argument can be made that a prime cameron isn't much worse than a prime cabrera. Cabrera when he's is normally around 5+ wins, and at his absolute best around 7 wins. Cameron was continually between 4-5 wins in his prime.

 

If Maybin can OPS 800, steal 30 bags, and save 10 runs on defense, we're only talking about a 0-3 win difference betwee him and cabrera, and more importantly is the money difference (which matter regardless of the team not named the Yankees). I'm not saying I'd take that over what Cabrera gives, I'm just saying it's not that big of a difference. And if Andrew can become a #2, that's worth 3-4 wins, so I mean, that's break even to us being better.

 

However, it's been two years now and neither has showed up for a long period of time. We'll still have 6 more seasons of Maybin to see what happens but we have miller for less than 4 and a half years, and unlike Maybin he doesn't make the minimum.

 

The main crutch though is that it relies on defense numbers, and those are far from definitive, where as offensive numbers have, what, 95% accuracy? Aswell as the fact that converting runs to wins is a great estimate but also far far from definitive.

 

The thing that absolutely pisses me off though is that we did not trade him at the trade deadline and instead waited until the offseason. Look at what Tex got for Teix that trade deadline, one of the biggest haul's that's ever been seen. Imagine how much the second place team was offering? Articles out that say the dodgers offered us Kemp, Loney, and Billingsley. Can you imagine a 1-2-3 of JJ, Billingsley, Ricky? Replace Coghlan with Kemp, Bonifacio with Loney, and Miller with Billingsley and we're talking about a 7 win difference this season. Not to mention the possibility of last season.

 

Instead we wait until the offseason, but the Dodgers already traded one of the best hitting c specs for casey f***ing blake. so instead everybody is offering us their scraps.

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The bottom line is that Miguel Cabrera is taking a very HOF-like career track. His type of offensive output for his age has been equaled very rarely in major league history. His presence in the lineup everyday changes the entire scope of a lineup because you know there is one guy who can hurt you no matter how you pitch him. That's the reason why some guys are hall of famers.

 

No matter how you cut it, Mike Cameron just doesn't have that type of impact. Yes his defense but its still not the same. And for the record I haven't seen Maybin play defense anywhere close to Cameron. He has range and all, but it takes more than that to be an exceptional CFer.

 

And my reason for being a little negative is that it represents the greater tools versus production debate, with Maybin being the tools and Cabrera being the production. Remember- Johan Santana was traded last year for a package centered around Carlos Gomez. And I just have to wonder if teams really ever sit down and think about what type of numbers they are going to get from these guys instead of "wow, this guy looks really fast!". Maybin isn't in that category, but he is closer to it than you think.

 

I know we got Andrew Miller in the deal and I don't discount him. But I tend to think that our former 20 game winner, cy young runner-up, and immensely popular player that we threw in the deal might have something to do with that. So I tend to think of Andrew as being traded for Willis and Maybin for Cabrera. With the other 18-25 players we got in return from Detroit being the useless players that they are.

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If you look at it that way, then we won ths trade.

Andrew Miller is better than Willis. Cameron Maybin may not be better than Miguel Cabrera, but as Nny pointed out, he could be worth around 5 wins because of his defense, offense, and base running ability.

And Burke Badenhop is not useless. Why does everyone always forget he was in the trade?

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If you look at it that way, then we won ths trade.

Andrew Miller is better than Willis. Cameron Maybin may not be better than Miguel Cabrera, but as Nny pointed out, he could be worth around 5 wins because of his defense, offense, and base running ability.

And Burke Badenhop is not useless. Why does everyone always forget he was in the trade?

 

 

Actually, you got me. I actually forgot he was in the trade. And I like him being a member of this organization. But he is just a long reliever and not a deal breaker.

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Dallas Trahern could still become your prototypical #3 sinker ball pitcher as well, but his stock has certainly fallen with his injuries and ineffectiveness since coming here.

 

I also definitely agree with your tools v.s. production thing. That's partly why I made the tread. Fans can hear "stanton is #2 prospect, morrison is #10 prospect, maybin has been top 10 for so long, yadda yadda" but what does it actually mean. I don't want people expecting these guys to become Albert Pujols. Most likely stanton and morrison are .850+ OPS bats, which is good, but not omg amazing.

 

However, I don't really think the Santana trade is that great of an example because the Twins purposely traded him for a worse package just so that'd he'd be in the NL. I do find it humerous though that a top-5 of our generation pitcher, if not better, and a top-5 of our generation hitter, if not better, were traded in the same offseason and both didn't exactly get a great haul lol. meanwhile a good but not great hitter was traded the trade deadline previous and got 4 top prospects.

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I just want to point out Stanton has a .500 slugging with a .205 avg and a .326 obp in the last month. His power is absurdly legitimate even though he's probably overmatched right now.

 

Also, Matt dominguez has been absolutely nuts over the past month.

 

Raw, 19 year old defense first players aren't supposed to walk 18 times with only 13 k's over the course of a month. Flukey, probably. But still, that's awesome. He's also just crushing the ball right now, he's had absurd power numbers over the last 28 days.

 

I'm very happy to see our top 4 hitters (maybin, Stanton, Logan, Domingo) have all at least showed they haven't slipped, and have for the most part improved some area of their game. Maybin even showing some power in July. And really, coghlan and gaby, the lower upside guys have shown something too, gaby a little less so

since his injury.

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Decided to break it down further and rather than guessing BA/OBP/SLG actually assign BB%, K%, ISO, BABIP based off minor league numbers. I mean, above I f***ed up on maybins line because I forgot about his high BABIP, but yeah, this should better assign things. And I decided to just then go further and get WAR and assume defense and base running, to give a better example of their value.

 

Here's a copy and past on all that for Maybin:

 

 

 

If you ask a fan who the Marlins top prospects are, they would likely know. They would know that Michael Stanton has a lot of power and a lot of strikeouts, that Cameron Maybin has 5 tools, and so forth.

 

But what exactly does this mean in terms of production?

 

Generally speaking for hitters, you are who you are. Unlike pitchers, whos stats can be deceiving, a hitter periphally will be around the same in the majors as he is in the minors. These being walk percent, strikeout percent, batting average of balls in play, and isolated power. With these four pieces of information, you can say what a hitters BA/OBP/SLG line will be.

 

Now they won’t perfectly transfer over. Walks will normally go down and strikeouts up as batters face pitchers with better control and stuff. Power doesn’t normally cap until a player is in the 25-27 range and age relative to league is important to consider. A 25 year old with a .200 ISO in AA is not the same as a 20 year old with a .200 ISO on the same team. The hope for a young hitter that hits a lot of doubles but not HRs is that those doubles then turn into HRs as his body progress. However, power isn’t automatically going to go up. Better defenses mean less doubles and triples for the ones that do stay in the park, which is big factor for guys with low power/high speed. Improved defense (aswell as pitching) also means that a hitters BABIP almost always goes down from minors to majors.

 

Something to understand though is that batting stats can be a smoke screen as well. Just because a guy walks a lot in the minors does not mean he will walk a lot in the majors. For example, David Eckstein walked 13% of the time. But in the majors he has walked at only half of that at 6.5%. Why is this? Lack of power, as can be seen by his.076 MLB ISO and .097 MILB ISO. Because of his lack of power, pitchers in the majors attack him more, and you can only walk if you’re thrown balls. Like wise, Dan Uggla’s walk% has improved because of his increase in power.

 

There is more to being a good player than just hitting and that’s with defense and baserunning. And with those, we can only assume what a player will be based off scouting reports. In the case of BR, it does not have that big of an impact; most players are between - and +1 run with the best being in the double digits and the worst being in the negative double digits. We also can get a rough estimate of how “baseball fast� a guy is thanks to the Speed Score stat. With defense, generally speaking a guy is statistically around what he is in the scouting reports. There’s certainly some variation, but we can only go off what information we have at the time.

 

Now, with all of that said, let’s begin. I’m going to start with Cameron Maybin, who will probably be up in the majors again soon. He was disapointing in his time up at the start of the year but has been lighting it up in New Orleans as of late. First allow us to look at his minor league line.

 

 

 

As we can see, he walks a good amount but also strikes out a lot. He has above average power with a 0.175 ISO but also only averages 16 HRs over 150 games. His BABIP is very high as to be expected from somebody who hits a lot of GBs and with his speed.

 

The main thing to understand with Maybin is his groundball rates. One of the things scouts loved about him is that he has the potential to sit in the 25-30 HR range. The problem is he has a career GB% of 56% and it’s 57% this season. Guys with that high of GB rates just don’t hit for that kind of power. If he’s able to get into the low 50’s, he can be a 20-25 HR guy asome hitters have been able to. But most likely he will sit in the 15-20 HR range. There is the chance he reworks his swing and starts living up to his power potential, but most likely this will not happen.

 

The one positive of his GB rates is that, with his speed, he should always have a high BABIP. No, it won’t be his .400 MILB number, but it should sit in the mid 300’s. But even with his high BABIP his K rates will keep him from hitting for a very good average as he’ll likely continue to strike out more than once every 4 AB. A positive to look at is the fact he’s only striking out 19% of the time in AAA this season, showing that he has the potential to get his K rate down.

 

Defensively it’s no surprise that he is considered a plus defender with his speed aswell as having a plus arm.. His routes could still use some work but his speed has been able to overcome these mistakes. In his limited time in the majors, the numbers back this up; He has a +2.3 UZR (+15 in 150 games) and a +4 Plus Minus (+18/150). That’s a small sample size and he likely will not continue to be that good, but he is still expected to be a very good defensive centerfielder. Likewise, his base running is expected to be a positive. He hasa 7.2 MLB speed score after posting a 7.3 speed score in the minors. He steals a good amount of bases (34 SB over 150 games) at a high rate (79% success rate). In his limited time, he has a posted a 3.7 EQBRR (or Baserunning Runs), which translates to 13 runs over 150 games. Like defense, it likely won’t continue to be that high, but he should continue to create a lot of runs on the base paths.

 

Taking all of this into consideration we come to:

 

 

 

What most likely happens: He still strikes out too much to have a good average and hits to many groundballs to have anything better than an average ISO. His mid .700 OPS will likely piss off a lot of Marlin fans because of what was traded to get him, but his defense and baserunning still allows him to be a well above average player. He will likely be a 4-5 win player throughout his career, which is normally a top 5-7 CFer in all of baseball.

 

Best case scenerio: His GB rates fall down to the low 40’s, allowing for his power to really break out. His pitch recognition really improves and doesn’t strikeout nearly as much. A 8-9 win is where the best players land; if he’s not the #1 CFer, he’s #1A. I need to stress that this likely will not happen. It’s possible, the Marlin’s own Hanley Ramirez is an example of a player that went from being a mid-50% GB hitter in the minors to a low-40% in the majors, hence why he’s hit for so much more power. But you can not bank on a player being Hanley Ramirez.

 

Worst case scenerio: He’s just not able to improve his strikeout rate and his GB rate is too much to overcome, as his lack of power this year in AAA is for real. He essentailly becomes a (on the high power end) slap hitter with defense and speed, allowing him to still be a good enough CFer but also very replacable.

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I think his K's will level off (in a Matt Kemp kind of way), the line drive percentage replaces a few of the ground balls, and he naturally just grows into the power. I'm not going to be surprised if he goes all Adam Jones on us in a year or three.

 

I expect something like .270/.360/.450. Basically splitting the difference between the high/medium.

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well, what 4 of his peripherals would you disagree with that would improve it?

 

 

 

No, I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you. It just sucks that there's a good chance he'll be a .750 OPS player.

But like he said, add in superior defense and his base running abilities, and that is still one hell of a center fielder and certainly a player we can build around. We have looming beasts with Stanton and Morrison. We're still in great shape even in a WORST case scenario.

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well, what 4 of his peripherals would you disagree with that would improve it?

 

 

 

No, I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you. It just sucks that there's a good chance he'll be a .750 OPS player.

But like he said, add in superior defense and his base running abilities, and that is still one hell of a center fielder and certainly a player we can build around. We have looming beasts with Stanton and Morrison. We're still in great shape even in a WORST case scenario.

 

 

True. But when you give up Miguel Cabrera, you certainley want a stud running Center Field. But I guess it wouldn't be as bad as I thought it was.

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I'm fairly certain both dominguez and maybin are going to be at least solid .750+ bats with excellent defense at least, and there's very little doubt in my mind they will both be seen as busts by most of the idiots here.

 

 

 

Not necessarily.

Chris Coghlan is well-liked.

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I'm fairly certain both dominguez and maybin are going to be at least solid .750+ bats with excellent defense at least, and there's very little doubt in my mind they will both be seen as busts by most of the idiots here.

 

 

 

Not necessarily.

Chris Coghlan is well-liked.

 

Not an apt comparison. Coghlan is short and white. He is automatically beloved by any baseball fan for being scrappy regardless of his actual on field production.

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