Yesterday the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson wrote about "some sentiment inside the Marlins toward making a long-term offer to Josh Johnson this offseason." The big righty turns 26 in January. He's having the best year of his career, with a 3.06 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 188.3 innings.

 

Noting that Johnson is under team control for 2010 and 2011 anyway, ESPN's Keith Law opined today Zack Greinke's four-year, $38MM extension signed in January would serve as a "realistic guideline." Both have developed into nasty pitchers, but with bumps along the way. For Johnson, it was Tommy John surgery in August of 2007.

 

What do you think - will the Marlins make a serious attempt to buy out Johnson's last two arbitration years and first two years of free agency? Is Greinke the right comparable? How about Jon Lester, who signed with less service time and gave more concessions to the team?

 

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/discussion-josh-johnson.html

You know what's great? We don't even need ESPN insider to read Keith Law's take on such things. We heard this here first...from MarlinsLou.

^ That's exactly what I was thinking. MarlinsLou called this way back in the summer.

LOL. Yeah.

MarlinsLou >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Keith Law.

Major props.

You know what's great? We don't even need ESPN insider to read Keith Law's take on such things. We heard this here first...from MarlinsLou.

 

Maybe MarlinsLou is secretly... MarlinsLaw?!!??!!

Thank you for the shout outs. For organization, this is what I did some months back.

 

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Josh Johnson (Current 4th year salary - $1.4 million)

2008 - 87.1 IP, 7-1, CG, 3.61 era, 77 K, 1.35 whip

2009 - 148 IP, 10-2, 2 CG, 2.98 era, 123 K, 1.11 whip (as of Aug 6th)

Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip

 

We have such an amazing comp it’s not even funny. I know I have done this before, but just for keeping it in one spot.

 

Zack Greinke

2007 - 122 IP, 7-7, 3.69 era, 106 K, 1.30 whip < - Half year because of injury, just like JJ

2008 - 202.1 IP, 13-10, 3.47 era, 183 K, 1.28 whip < - $1.4 million year 4. Same as JJ

 

Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4)

 

So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is JJ than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss� advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation.

 

Contract Comparisons - Player Stats for Year 4 / Contract Value Year 5

Adam Wainwright - 158.1 IP, 12-7, 2.79 era, 1.28 whip, 140 K / $4.65 million (signed after year 2)

Matt Cain - 148 IP, 12-3, 2.25 era, 1.16 whip, 117 K / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)

Jon Lester - Currently in year 3 / $5.75 million (signed after year 2)

James Shields - Currently in year 3 / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)

 

Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2.

 

Other notable pitchers hitting arbitration year 5, year 4 salary noted - Felix Hernandez ($3.8), Justin Verlander ($3.6)

 

So the question now is, what’s JJ’s arbitration status for next year. What is JJ’s longterm contract status for next year.

 

Arbitration

 

At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. When I did this before, I was assuming a back to earth period where JJ’s era would shoot back to “good not amazing� levels of 3.6-3.8, the whip climbs over 1.20, etc. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright� level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins.

 

So the Arbitration Projection.

 

Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008.

Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible)

High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation

 

I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if JJ trys to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to lowball this, like they did with Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now.

 

Contract

 

So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards.

 

So after the blah blah back and forth with JJ wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable.

 

2010 - $5.5 million

2011 - $7.75 million

2012 - $14 million

2013 - $14.25 million

2014 - $14.5 million club option / $1.5 buyout

4/$43 or 5/$56

 

That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying.

 

Overall. I find it imperative we sign JJ to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else, and JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever� money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.� The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen.

 

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Yea. I stand by all of this. That 4 year + option is pretty perfect for both parties. Maybe the escalation in yearly values is a bit fast from 2011-2012 and it's more of 10-14-16, etc, or a bigger buyout, etc, but that's about the pay range which is going to be needed.

See you, JJ! The signing that you are hoping for just isn't going to happen.

See you, JJ! The signing that you are hoping for just isn't going to happen.

 

 

And what makes you think that? The Marlins signed Hanley long term, and he's obviously the building block as far as the offense goes. Why wouldn't the FO do the same on the pitching end? We need pitching, and I think the FO realizes JJ is the building block in terms of starting pitching.

See you, JJ! The signing that you are hoping for just isn't going to happen.

 

 

And what makes you think that? The Marlins signed Hanley long term, and he's obviously the building block as far as the offense goes. Why wouldn't the FO do the same on the pitching end? We need pitching, and I think the FO realizes JJ is the building block in terms of starting pitching.

 

I imagine he thinks Hanley's getting traded too.