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NL Home Run Leader Board


CyggyMarlin
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Is there honestly any question who will lead this after the at the AS break or even after the season.

 

 

It's been 58 years since a 21 year old lead the majors in home runs. I'm not sure how long it's been for a league leader, but I'm gonna guess it's exceedingly rare.

 

If put a good bit of money on him not doing it. And expecting it is just asking way too much.

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Is everyone confident he will surpass 40 this year?

 

 

I'm not. Considering he's projected right now to hit 38, I see 30-35.

 

True, but I don't think 'projections' are fair with Stanton. A week ago he was probably projected to hit like, 24. He'll go into a streak where he doesn't hit any again. And then he'll start hitting one every game for a week.

 

It's too much to speculate until we're in or around August.

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Is there honestly any question who will lead this after the at the AS break or even after the season.

 

 

It's been 58 years since a 21 year old lead the majors in home runs. I'm not sure how long it's been for a league leader, but I'm gonna guess it's exceedingly rare.

 

If put a good bit of money on him not doing it. And expecting it is just asking way too much.

 

 

Why? Just because it hasn't been done in 58 years doesn't mean it won't happen this year, you're making a wild assumption and thats fine you can assume/believe what you want.

 

I was mostly focusing on him leading the National League in HR's and not overall but both are possible and with the run Stanton's on right now, there is no reason he can't and not to mention he started late, I am confident.

 

Look what he did last year in a limited amount of games played. Age is irrelevant imo, he has a special talent that i don't think many of us have seen in a long while, if ever.

 

He might do it he might not, I'm confident he will based on my own observations.

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Yeah, the guy who doesn't think the 21 year old with less than 600 PAs is going to lead the league in HRs is the one making "wild assumptions."

 

Heh.

 

 

His plate appearances is IRRELEVANT! Look at what he has already done!

 

 

Also I said I am confident he will lead the National League in HR's but has a chance in both leagues, apparently you didn't read my reply thoroughly.

 

Anyway it's ok, we can agree to disagree! :)

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Look at what he has already done!

 

 

Yes. Over the course of his career, he's on pace to hit 37 home runs over a 162 game schedule. He's already missed a handful of games this year, so he'll probably only play in about 155 games. He's currently on pace for 37 HRs.

 

Over the last 20 years, the fewest HRs needed to lead the NL was 35 by Fred McGriff in 92. Besides that, there has only been one leader under 40. Over the last 10 years, the average leader has hit 51.

 

He's probably going to have to hit between 40-45. Considering he still strikes out in 30+% of his at bats and is prone to major slumps (because he's 21 and that's what happens to 21 year olds.)

 

He's had a great 10 days or so. He has hit half of his season home runs in that 10 days. You're asking him to hit a home run on average less than every 4 days for the rest of the way without any major slumps.

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Look at what he has already done!

 

 

Yes. Over the course of his career, he's on pace to hit 37 home runs over a 162 game schedule. He's already missed a handful of games this year, so he'll probably only play in about 155 games. He's currently on pace for 37 HRs.

 

Over the last 20 years, the fewest HRs needed to lead the NL was 35 by Fred McGriff in 92. Besides that, there has only been one leader under 40. Over the last 10 years, the average leader has hit 51.

 

He's probably going to have to hit between 40-45. Considering he still strikes out in 30+% of his at bats and is prone to major slumps (because he's 21 and that's what happens to 21 year olds.)

 

He's had a great 10 days or so. He has hit half of his season home runs in that 10 days. You're asking him to hit a home run on average less than every 4 days for the rest of the way without any major slumps.

 

Another thing I have yet to mention is he is not that drastically far behind any other hitters who do you assume is going to hit more?

While I predicted Mike would have a 40+ HR season (as many of us did) I knew with that would come near 200 K's understandable for a player as young as himself.

 

Using the same methods you have used.

Taken from Fangraphs

 

ZiPS updated projections if the season ended today.

 

 

In the above chart we see Mike Stanton tied for 1st in HR's with Prince Fielder (National League Only!)

So according to that he would in fact lead the NL with HR's (co-champion).

 

All players will have slumps to assume Mike Stanton will hit a longer slump than the other players on this list over the course of the rest of the year...

is just assumption.

 

The only thing I would give to Fielder is the experience factor.

 

It will be interesting to say the least.

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Speaking of Home Runs...

 

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/05/uggla-not-hitting-his-weight-but-dont-ask-him-about-it/1

 

 

"Nobody had ever really seen me play, I was in Florida," Uggla said. "There's a stereotype. They just see the 30 home runs and they assume I'm one kind of player."

 

This season he definitely is...

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All players will have slumps to assume Mike Stanton will hit a longer slump than the other players on this list over the course of the rest of the year...

is just assumption.

 

The only thing I would give to Fielder is the experience factor.

 

 

The experience factor is huge. We've already seen Stanton go into massive slumps, and he strikes out far more than Prince Fielder, which means he's going to be more prone to slumps going forward. Add in that he's only 21 and 21 year olds very rarely experience sustained, season long success, and the deck is stacked very strongly against him.

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