A Theory On The Season

[CyggyMarlin]

I've been thinking about how this season went from good to bad to ugly. I am not using facts for the following theory, so I expect to get blasted for this by some of you statisticians...

Here goes:

 

The first month and most of May we had 3 very good pitchers. JJ and Anibal were flirting with no-no's while Ricky was being good Ricky. When 3 out of 5 starters keep pitching great, that plays out to .600 baseball. If one of those 3 didn't win, a rare win by Vazquez or Volstad (or the bullpen / i.e. Mujica) would balance it out. Before the Buster Posey incident, this team was playing around .600 baseball.

 

The offense as a whole has not been spectacular all year. The team's ability to waste scoring opportunities is not something that just started on this losing skid. It's been going on all year. The first part of the year, the pitching and bullpen was good enough that we could score enough runs and win by one.

 

Since JJ went on the DL, Ricky became bad Ricky on that long west coast trip. Volstad (despite one or two decent outings) and Vazquez have been terrible (they now have the two worst ERAs in the NL!!), and now Anibal (while pitching well) probably feels like he now has to throw a no-hitter everytime he is out there. At any rate, the pitching is giving up more runs, the bullpen is overworked, meaning we get blown out or we start losing the games by 1 run instead of winning by 1 run.

 

To sum up the season so far. The offense has been struggling all year with scoring runs and situational hitting (even though Logan, Mikey, Gaby, and Cogz each have less than 2 full years of service in the majors, you'd think somewhere along the line these guys would learn how to play small ball and have productive outs when needed), but the starting pitching was good enough to compensate for scoring let's say 3 or 4 runs a game. Now the pitching has gone south and the team is not capable of picking up the slack when they have to fight back from run deficits, so the team starts losing games 5 to 4.

 

This skid has exposed some flaws in this team. The bench is weak (and even worse we have to keep starting them in games), it seems like the offense needs at least one big veteran bat (an anti-Wes Helms) to mentor these kids (and tell them to stop pressing and chasing bad pitches - be selective), and the pitching staff needs 2 durable experienced starters who know how to give the team innings... (This part is more along what we can do before Opening Day next year in the new ballpark)

 

Thoughts?

[Zero]

I've been thinking about how this season went from good to bad to ugly. I am not using facts for the following theory, so I expect to get blasted for this by some of you statisticians...

Here goes:

 

The first month and most of May we had 3 very good pitchers. JJ and Anibal were flirting with no-no's while Ricky was being good Ricky. When 3 out of 5 starters keep pitching great, that plays out to .600 baseball. If one of those 3 didn't win, a rare win by Vazquez or Volstad (or the bullpen / i.e. Mujica) would balance it out. Before the Buster Posey incident, this team was playing around .600 baseball.

 

The offense as a whole has not been spectacular all year. The team's ability to waste scoring opportunities is not something that just started on this losing skid. It's been going on all year. The first part of the year, the pitching and bullpen was good enough that we could score enough runs and win by one.

 

Since JJ went on the DL, Ricky became bad Ricky on that long west coast trip. Volstad (despite one or two decent outings) and Vazquez have been terrible (they now have the two worst ERAs in the NL!!), and now Anibal (while pitching well) probably feels like he now has to throw a no-hitter everytime he is out there. At any rate, the pitching is giving up more runs, the bullpen is overworked, meaning we get blown out or we start losing the games by 1 run instead of winning by 1 run.

 

To sum up the season so far. The offense has been struggling all year with scoring runs and situational hitting (even though Logan, Mikey, Gaby, and Cogz each have less than 2 full years of service in the majors, you'd think somewhere along the line these guys would learn how to play small ball and have productive outs when needed), but the starting pitching was good enough to compensate for scoring let's say 3 or 4 runs a game. Now the pitching has gone south and the team is not capable of picking up the slack when they have to fight back from run deficits, so the team starts losing games 5 to 4.

 

This skid has exposed some flaws in this team. The bench is weak (and even worse we have to keep starting them in games), it seems like the offense needs at least one big veteran bat (an anti-Wes Helms) to mentor these kids (and tell them to stop pressing and chasing bad pitches - be selective), and the pitching staff needs 2 durable experienced starters who know how to give the team innings... (This part is more along what we can do before Opening Day next year in the new ballpark)

 

Thoughts?

 

 

I am no statistician but I believe you summed it up pretty well.

 

I think first and foremost the main problem that needs to be addressed at this point is the 2 V's we have in our rotation. Vostad has been given enough time to become a good pitcher and its about time to say enough is enough. Vazquez was a failed experiment, he needs to be release and hopefully will retire and never put another team through this misery. Getting one good arm by the trade deadline usually isn't easy and we need to get 2 which I am sure won't happen.

 

 

Something we may be able to pull of if Loria opens his wallet is maybe get Young from Texas. Texas I am pretty sure is still looking to unload Young, I think if Loria is serious about the success of this team he should pick up his contract. Young is a proven veteran bat who can fill the hole we have at 3rd base. Dobbs can now fulfill the roll he was hired for and give us quality pinch hits against righties.

 

Unfortunately the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed. I think what we have is what we are stuck with this season, sad but true.

[...]

Unfortunately the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed.

 

:lol

 

Urbina for Adrian Gonzalez and 2 prospects in '03.

 

LoDuca, Encarnacion and Mota for Penny, Choi and a prospect in '04

 

Signing Carlos Delgado to 4 years/$52 million in '05 when almost no one thought he would wind up here.

 

I'll leave it to others to elaborate further on this total idiocy if they care to.

 

More importantly, if there ever was a season when Loria might think of spending a few bucks of (now-certain) future revenue in anticipation of making good things happen now as the new stadium revenue stream is about to come on-line, this is it.

 

As already evidenced by signing Buck and Vasquez. And Numb-nuts, for that matter. Significantly higher payroll this year. No reason to think that it won't get higher yet if need be. The idea that "the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed" is ridiculous.

 

Doesn't matter if some serious attempts to get to the post-season didn't work, there can be no question that Loria made them.

[Schnellders]

A theory on the season......bad Kharma

 

She broke down and announced her pregnancy at the beginning of our downfall......

[Zero]

Unfortunately the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed.

 

:lol

 

Urbina for Adrian Gonzalez and 2 prospects in '03.

 

LoDuca, Encarnacion and Mota for Penny, Choi and a prospect in '04

 

Signing Carlos Delgado to 4 years/$52 million in '05 when almost no one thought he would wind up here.

 

I'll leave it to others to elaborate further on this total idiocy if they care to.

 

More importantly, if there ever was a season when Loria might think of spending a few bucks of (now-certain) future revenue in anticipation of making good things happen now as the new stadium revenue stream is about to come on-line, this is it.

 

As already evidenced by signing Buck and Vasquez. And Numb-nuts, for that matter. Significantly higher payroll this year. No reason to think that it won't get higher yet if need be. The idea that "the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed" is ridiculous.

 

Doesn't matter if some serious attempts to get to the post-season didn't work, there can be no question that Loria made them.

 

I was mostly referring to mid season trades to help the team reach the pennant.

 

BTW why didn't you mention any deals from 2006 - 2010? hmmm

 

I guess 3 years of trying is enough for you but it isn't for the rest of us.

[SilverBullet]

A theory on the season......bad Kharma

 

She broke down and announced her pregnancy at the beginning of our downfall......

 

 

Dude you are on fire today... and once again, you're so right! ughhhh!!!

[EricWiener]

I was mostly referring to mid season trades to help the team reach the pennant.

 

BTW why didn't you mention any deals from 2006 - 2010? hmmm

 

I guess 3 years of trying is enough for you but it isn't for the rest of us.

 

 

2006: Very good recycle, numerous future all-star player acquired

2007: Injury plagued year, no shot at anything

2008: Rhodes - Bad Trade (only in retrospect) of Cabrera didn't help

2009: Sanches, Calero, Hensley, Nick Johnson (other notable attempts to improve bullpen) - a healthy Johnson and Hermida down the stretch and this team likely plays in October

2010: Ohman - but really this team wasn't there. Cantu blew, Maybin was not ready for prime time, Coghlan got hurt, etc. etc

2011: Solidified Catcher, greatly improved BP, significant free agent pitcher (that hasn't panned out) - failed to address the bench at all

[uppy77]

who is pregnant?

[...]

I was mostly referring to mid season trades to help the team reach the pennant.

 

Uh, huh. Right.

 

To reiterate:

 

Urbina for Adrian Gonzalez and 2 prospects in '03.

 

LoDuca, Encarnacion and Mota for Penny, Choi and a prospect in '04

 

Signing Carlos Delgado to 4 years/$52 million in '05 when almost no one thought he would wind up here.

 

'03 and '04 were mid-season deals and your "picking up valuable pieces" didn't specify any timing or time-frame, so obviously Delgado would be included.

 

why didn't you mention any deals from 2006 - 2010?

 

Well, that's not too complicated. I said "I'll leave it to others to elaborate further on this total idiocy if they care to" as the point was obvious.

 

And, lo and behold, elaboration resulted. The further details on the important mid-season (which you belatedly claim to be of supreme importance) deals were:

 

'08: Arthur Rhodes

'09: Nick Johnson

'10: Will Ohman

 

So. What's that total out to? The FO spent money/did trades to help the team in 6 out of 8 years? The other two years they were out of it.

 

Seems to me that the statement "Unfortunately the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed" is pure rubbish.

 

Your screen-name "Zero" is appropriate. You blather on with zero clue about that of which you speak and with zero net contribution to a clear understanding of the facts.

 

This seems to be an unpleasant characteristic of Loria/FO bashers.

[Zero]

I was mostly referring to mid season trades to help the team reach the pennant.

 

BTW why didn't you mention any deals from 2006 - 2010? hmmm

 

I guess 3 years of trying is enough for you but it isn't for the rest of us.

 

 

2006: Very good recycle, numerous future all-star player acquired

2007: Injury plagued year, no shot at anything

2008: Rhodes - Bad Trade (only in retrospect) of Cabrera didn't help

2009: Sanches, Calero, Hensley, Nick Johnson (other notable attempts to improve bullpen) - a healthy Johnson and Hermida down the stretch and this team likely plays in October

2010: Ohman - but really this team wasn't there. Cantu blew, Maybin was not ready for prime time, Coghlan got hurt, etc. etc

2011: Solidified Catcher, greatly improved BP, significant free agent pitcher (that hasn't panned out) - failed to address the bench at all

 

Your post proves my point, thanks.

[Zero]

I was mostly referring to mid season trades to help the team reach the pennant.

 

Uh, huh. Right.

 

To reiterate:

 

Urbina for Adrian Gonzalez and 2 prospects in '03.

 

LoDuca, Encarnacion and Mota for Penny, Choi and a prospect in '04

 

Signing Carlos Delgado to 4 years/$52 million in '05 when almost no one thought he would wind up here.

 

'03 and '04 were mid-season deals and your "picking up valuable pieces" didn't specify any timing or time-frame, so obviously Delgado would be included.

 

why didn't you mention any deals from 2006 - 2010?

 

Well, that's not too complicated. I said "I'll leave it to others to elaborate further on this total idiocy if they care to" as the point was obvious.

 

And, lo and behold, elaboration resulted. The further details on the important mid-season (which you belatedly claim to be of supreme importance) deals were:

 

'08: Arthur Rhodes

'09: Nick Johnson

'10: Will Ohman

 

So. What's that total out to? The FO spent money/did trades to help the team in 6 out of 8 years? The other two years they were out of it.

 

Seems to me that the statement "Unfortunately the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed" is pure rubbish.

 

Your screen-name "Zero" is appropriate. You blather on with zero clue about that of which you speak and with zero net contribution to a clear understanding of the facts.

 

This seems to be an unpleasant characteristic of Loria/FO bashers.

 

Rhodes, Johnson, Ohman are decent ballplayers, questionable if any are to the caliber to help a team make the playoffs unless every other piece is really good. I am not a Loria/FO "basher" as you call it, tons of people on this board are saying the same thing but I guess your scared of them and don't reply to their posts.

 

Either way with the exception of Delgado the other names being thrown here are mostly lol.

 

Oh and maybe LoDuca for some reason I really liked him.

 

Would of been nice to keep some of these guys but fire sale after fire sale gets kinda old.

[mystikol87]

Lol. That's all.

[Zero]

You mean one firesale and one market correction? Search the forum for posts made by "..." reguarding payroll and the marlins finances. Its very popular for marlins fans to cry about payroll and how they dont keep certain players but if you were loria would you run your business in a way that lost 10s of millions of dollars a year? I dont think so. He spent more than he should have in 2005. People were happy, but attendance still sucked and the team didnt perform well enough to justify the cost. Baseball is a business before anything else.

 

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that Baseball is a business. And neither I nor you can speak intelligently about the Marlins finances. "..." took my post completely out of proportion and somewhat comical at how offended he sounded by my opinion. I simply personally felt the Marlins have not made trades for big name ballplayers when we needed it as of late.

 

They have made good deals I never said they never made any deal ever worth anything. I simply feel it is unlikely that they will make a trade for a big name this summer since they just picked up Javi and Buck. Honestly I don't see the big deal, I am not saying anything new lots of folks feel the same way.

 

Anywho I would like to not hijack the OP's thread so if anyone else has a problem with my post PM me or make a new thread.

[heat84]

A theory on the season......bad Kharma

 

She broke down and announced her pregnancy at the beginning of our downfall......

 

I don't get it.

[...]

First you said:

 

I am not a Loria/FO "basher"

 

Then, a mere three sentences later you said:

 

fire sale after fire sale gets kinda old.

 

:lol

 

Never mind your total misrepresentation that Loria has ever had a "fire sale." That was Huizenga. Who bought a '97 WS win and then immediately dispensed with the team and the '98 team lost 108 games.

 

2 years AFTER the '03 WS win, Loria reduced a relatively bloated payroll to reality and the '06 team won 78 games.

 

The '04 and '05 teams each won 83 games, while Loria was still busy pouring money into a fan black-hole, trying to win and get attendance up yet again.

 

Stop trying to BS us while also trying to change the subject without admitting that you were totally wrong about your contention that "the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed," when Loria did exactly that in the 6 years that mattered out of a total of 8 years.

 

Your ongoing rubbish is either the mark of a troll or someone who is incapable of admitting that they were wrong.

 

It's also certainly the mark of an uninformed Loria/FO basher, no matter how else it may be sliced or diced.

[EricWiener]

I was mostly referring to mid season trades to help the team reach the pennant.

 

BTW why didn't you mention any deals from 2006 - 2010? hmmm

 

I guess 3 years of trying is enough for you but it isn't for the rest of us.

 

 

2006: Very good recycle, numerous future all-star player acquired

2007: Injury plagued year, no shot at anything

2008: Rhodes - Bad Trade (only in retrospect) of Cabrera didn't help

2009: Sanches, Calero, Hensley, Nick Johnson (other notable attempts to improve bullpen) - a healthy Johnson and Hermida down the stretch and this team likely plays in October

2010: Ohman - but really this team wasn't there. Cantu blew, Maybin was not ready for prime time, Coghlan got hurt, etc. etc

2011: Solidified Catcher, greatly improved BP, significant free agent pitcher (that hasn't panned out) - failed to address the bench at all

 

Your post proves my point, thanks.

 

No it doesn't. It refutes it. Yes, 2006 was a reload. Huzzah, nothing there.

 

For argument's sake, lets say the team spend in 2007 for a legit CF, C and bullpen arm. The injury disaster in the rotation would have still screwed them. Without the rotation injury disaster, the team probably contends in late July and based upon EVER SINGLE YEAR THAT WAS THE CASE they would have added a player.

 

2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 - every year this ownership has had a team that even sniffed contention, players were added

[Erick]

We should've traded Mike Stanton for Manny Ramirez. Big move.

[Zero]

First you said:

 

I am not a Loria/FO "basher"

 

Then, a mere three sentences later you said:

 

fire sale after fire sale gets kinda old.

 

:lol

 

Never mind your total misrepresentation that Loria has ever had a "fire sale." That was Huizenga. Who bought a '97 WS win and then immediately dispensed with the team and the '98 team lost 108 games.

 

2 years AFTER the '03 WS win, Loria reduced a relatively bloated payroll to reality and the '06 team won 78 games.

 

The '04 and '05 teams each won 83 games, while Loria was still busy pouring money into a fan black-hole, trying to win and get attendance up yet again.

 

Stop trying to BS us while also trying to change the subject without admitting that you were totally wrong about your contention that "the Marlins FO does not have a history of picking up valuable pieces to help the team succeed," when Loria did exactly that in the 6 years that mattered out of a total of 8 years.

 

Your ongoing rubbish is either the mark of a troll or someone who is incapable of admitting that they were wrong.

 

It's also certainly the mark of an uninformed Loria/FO basher, no matter how else it may be sliced or diced.

 

That's your opinion and your entitled to it. Your argument is stupid because your just basing it on a piece was added without looking at the value of the actual piece added.

 

Most of the players that have been picked up lately have been washed up nobody's who if you sum up their entire career where decent ballplayers.

 

As I mentioned earlier I will not speak about what Loria had to do with the 05 team, I don't know the finances.

 

What I do want as a fan of Marlins Baseball is to hear news that the Marlins organization picked up a big name ballplayer like Texas did last year with Lee not oh we just got Will Ohman....ROFL

 

This topic is obviously really emotional for you so this will be my last reply to you, I am sorry the Marlins FO trades haven't impressed me. I am still a fan of Marlins baseball tho and still attend games regularly is that ok? :shrugs

[Erick]

Texas traded for Cliff Lee because they were in contention. The Marlins weren't, really.

 

Also, the ultimate result of the trade ends up being that Texas ended up trading Justin Smoak for nothing. The Marlins can't be trading legit young players for big-name players midseason that aren't even going to re-sign with them, long-term.

[CyggyMarlin]

So who are the big name free agents after this season? Who is not untouchable and can be traded for a decent return to help this club?

[knuckleball93]

So who are the big name free agents after this season? Who is not untouchable and can be traded for a decent return to help this club?

 

 

Pujols

[CyggyMarlin]

So who are the big name free agents after this season? Who is not untouchable and can be traded for a decent return to help this club?

 

 

Pujols

 

Nice knowing ya Gaby

[SilverBullet]

I was mostly referring to mid season trades to help the team reach the pennant.

 

BTW why didn't you mention any deals from 2006 - 2010? hmmm

 

I guess 3 years of trying is enough for you but it isn't for the rest of us.

 

 

2006: Very good recycle, numerous future all-star player acquired

2007: Injury plagued year, no shot at anything

2008: Rhodes - Bad Trade (only in retrospect) of Cabrera didn't help

2009: Sanches, Calero, Hensley, Nick Johnson (other notable attempts to improve bullpen) - a healthy Johnson and Hermida down the stretch and this team likely plays in October

2010: Ohman - but really this team wasn't there. Cantu blew, Maybin was not ready for prime time, Coghlan got hurt, etc. etc

2011: Solidified Catcher, greatly improved BP, significant free agent pitcher (that hasn't panned out) - failed to address the bench at all

Sorry but I don't get this... Dobbs was brought in for the bench... in a sense, so was Dewayne Wise whether it panned out or not. Not to mention Boni was totally supposed to be a part of our bench. And if Dominguez had stuck, Donnie Murphy was to be on our bench. The reason we don't have a bench is because of injuries and other circumstances. Our bench was to be Bonifacio, Helms, Murphy, Dobbs, Hayes... with Wise, Cousins/Petersen, Ozzie, and possibly even Baker as like a backup bench. I wouldn't say we didn't address our bench in the offseason.

[EricWiener]

Dobbs was an add, so nothing is just hyperbole but:

 

Baker was a known issue, Cousins and Helms are inadequate. As a result we started the season with a platoon and 3 schmucks on the bench. Injuries mean we now have a 5 schmuck bench.