Bottom line, honey bunny. He won't be signed long term this off seaon no matter how many sports board, arm chair GM/owners scream that they know better than the folks actually running this org. Maybe not even after next season.

 

Guys like Cabs and Uggla were traded because it was well known they weren't going to sign here, for whatever their personal reasons. Guys like Hanley and JJ signed here because they wanted to be here. Same will go for the living god. This thread and future ones won't change that.

 

 

Whether he signs or not, I still don't think you understand how this works.

I understand completely how it works. There is no need to sign him long term right now. Wait at least until his first year of arb eligibility to do that. Hanley was the first one we did that with and it set a precedence. JJ was signed his second year of arb's.

That's SO BroncoBob! Get called out on ignorant statements, change your argument, and insult everybody! Never change, kid <3

 

I didn't change anything. Sticking with it makes no sense to sign him long term right now. Just because I expand on the reasoning, dosen't change that view point.

Bronco. Your getting burned up my man.

 

Only because he's a popular player. But lets's see who really gets burned here this off season. Will he be signed long term?

 

I will concede there are two things that would have me sign him long term right now.

1.) His agent brings the deal to me, because I have no problem with the contract he is under right now.

2.) The $$$ and terms of that contract have to be very lopsided in my favor.

 

But if those conditions are met, Stanton should fire his agent. He would be giving away millions. And I doubt either him or his agent are that stupid.

I understand completely how it works. There is no need to sign him long term right now. Wait at least until his first year of arb eligibility to do that. Hanley was the first one we did that with and it set a precedence. JJ was signed his second year of arb's.

 

But, you don't. JJ also was coming off an injury and not producing at out of this world HR/RBI levels his first 4 years. The Tigers gave Miguel Cabrera his arbitration buyout after year 4 of service time (same as JJ). The contract was for $152 million dollars and was the only way Cabrera would give up free agency years.

 

Alternatively, the Phillies attempted to sign Ryan Howard to a long term extension his first year of arbitration. Howard, having the position of power, declined their advances and choose to accept the one year tender. He won, and received $10 million for his 4th year of service time. The Phillies subsequently have given him two contracts in order to lock up years 7-8-9 in free agency, one for $54 million, one for $125 million.

 

I think I have done a pretty good job in this thread explaining this situation. If you wait until arbitration with a prolific, top of the mountain, all world player that is accruing HR/RBI, statistics that historically have brought higher arbitration tenders than Hanley (Hanley has coming off a great 33 HR year where he had 67 RBIs. Stanton is topping this right now), you will lose him. These are different animals. If the Marlins wait until arbitration, they will lose him, just how the Brewers are going to lose Prince Fielder. The Brewers never offered him a realistic deal after his first or second year, and that poor decision in the 06/07 offseason is now haunting them in 2012. Longterm vision. You are lacking this.

 

BEWARE!

 

See: Alfonso Soriano + Jayson Werth (What do we do now types?) Huge contract problems. I'm not saying Stanton will regress that much, hell I don't think he will regress at all and if you want me to be really honest if he can get his BA walks up and his K's down he is Hall Of Fame bound (at this rate) especially considering how young he is (600 Club?). His stock is definitely high just make sure you know what you're getting. His numbers from last year and now this year his first full year are very similar and it has been seen he has done better in a few peripherals this year as compared to last.

 

Besides that I have never delved too much into contract specs but this is interesting stuff, I've enjoyed reading this second page.

 

bob covered this, however echoing on how wrong Bronco is above, if you wait to give Stanton a contract in arbitration, what you will end up doing is signing him to a contract more comparable to Soriano and Werth (where the club has "saved" no money paying market rates), than to Justin Upton, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Grady Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez, and Carlos Gonzalez (all of these later have had club beneficial arbitration buyouts at half the value of Soriano/Werth).

 

I understand the point in the pbp article about waiting until after 2012 to see another 800 PA and get a better defensive analysis baseline. I've already detailed that (I swear these newspaper types hijack these post) in prior posts in this thread. The Marlins can still give an extension in that year, and while it will be "giving" Stanton more money, it may be worth the risk-aversion of doing it the 2012 offseason. Giving Mike Stanton a Carlos Gonzalez type contract after 2012, which is 7 years/$75-90 contract, is astronomically lower than what Cabrera and Howard are making both annually, and most importantly there are no multiple mega $25 million seasons tac'd onto the back which would be absolutely franchise crippling to a projected mid-market team like the Marlins. I'd do it right now and go for maximum savings, but it's still not a bad deal next offseason - 1 full year away from arbitration.

 

 

 

Bronco. Your getting burned up my man.

Only because he's a popular player. But lets's see who really gets burned here this off season. Will he be signed long term? I will concede there are two things that would have me sign him long term right now. 1.) His agent brings the deal to me, because I have no problem with the contract he is under right now. 2.) The $$$ and terms of that contract have to be very lopsided in my favor. But if those conditions are met, Stanton should fire his agent. He would be giving away millions. And I doubt either him or his agent are that stupid.

Do you think Justin Upton at 22 years old was stupid for signing a $51 million dollar guaranteed contract covering 2 years of free agency? Because I don't. He doesn't. His agent doesn't. That is an insane amount of money for a player with that level of service time and completely sets him up for life if he gets injured, regresses, or whatever. Could he have made more year-year. YES. But is that worth it to Upton? NO. Because so many things can happen from injury, to underperformance, to god knows what. Guaranteeing hypothetical lower amounts of money benefits a player greatly when he has made absolutely no money in his life till this point when that money reaches a certain level. For Justin Upton, that amount is $51 million. As shown throughout, that's about the same level where Stanton is right now, and if you wait till next year, that probably goes over $80 million. If you wait another year, like you argue above, that amount goes to a Miguel Cabrera $152 million dollar contract. This is not rocket science, this is reality.

 

Also, Justin Uptons contract it is a very good club beneficial contract for the Diamondbacks, as they have secured free agency years at some sort of discount by paying in advance. This is a win-win. No one is stupid. The only thing stupid is to think you are happy with the contract a young player like Stanton is under, because you have no vision longterm to see major major salary problems are two years away due to Stanton's awesome performance on the field. Thankfully, the Marlins get this and they will sign Stanton this offseason, or next offseason. More than likely next offseason for the aforementioned risk-aversion seeing another 800 PA reasons.

 

It's really simple. The Marlins have to sign Mike Stanton before the 2013 season, or he will go the Prince Fielder route and be out of the organization after the 2016 season. The amount of HR/RBI he is going to accrue will be nuts to deal with in arbitration. It's in Stanton's benefit to go to arbitration, which is exactly why the Marlins have to be aggressive and offer him a buyout deal sooner than later as they have all the leverage since Big Mike is two full service years away from his payday. Once that payday happens, the player doesn't need the franchise to guarantee future years as they've already been paid.

 

This is the # 1 organizational priority right now as far as I am concerned. There are no free agents on this team that are must signs. There is no one in free agency worth giving a mega deal too. There are no other players on the team worth a club controlled+free agency buyout like Stanton. This is it. This is the Marlins top payroll and player acquisition concern right now. Locking him down sets the stages for literally 5+ years of moves in the future. He is a cornerstone franchise player and must be treated like one.

Are you living on the same planet as the rest of us?

 

Surely, you've heard of the new ballpark.

 

Yes I have, but a leopard doesn't change his spots. I'm not trusting this guy Loria until I see Stanton signed.

 

So the Hanley, JJ, Nolasco, and John Buck contracts in the last 3 years aren't enough to show he's willing to pay on long term deals?

I read in the paper that it was MLB that forced him to sign Hanley & JJ. Either it was the players union or Selig, maybe both of them. Maybe you guys know more than what I know, but a lot of my friends also feel the same way, we just don't trust the guy. Seems to be something sneaky about him.

 

Anyways, he's our owner and we're stuck with him, so I hope he comes through on Stanton, but I won't hold my breath on it.

Bronco. Your getting burned up my man.

 

Only because he's a popular player. But lets's see who really gets burned here this off season. Will he be signed long term?

 

I will concede there are two things that would have me sign him long term right now.

1.) His agent brings the deal to me, because I have no problem with the contract he is under right now.

2.) The $$$ and terms of that contract have to be very lopsided in my favor.

 

But if those conditions are met, Stanton should fire his agent. He would be giving away millions. And I doubt either him or his agent are that stupid.

You are a walking logical fallacy.

 

It has nothing to do with Stanton's "popularity" here; people have made it clear in this thread that it's an issue of sound baseball economics. You are twisting things around.

 

Secondly, if he does not sign in the offseason, it doesn't mean you are "right" about anything. Nobody here is offering a prediction, but they are making an assessment as to what the Marlins should do. In other words, the Marlins don't always make the right decision when it comes to buying out arbitration (see Miguel Cabrera). We are debating here whether such an action is a wise idea, not if it will happen.

Bronco. Your getting burned up my man.

 

Only because he's a popular player. But lets's see who really gets burned here this off season. Will he be signed long term?

 

I will concede there are two things that would have me sign him long term right now.

1.) His agent brings the deal to me, because I have no problem with the contract he is under right now.

2.) The $$$ and terms of that contract have to be very lopsided in my favor.

 

But if those conditions are met, Stanton should fire his agent. He would be giving away millions. And I doubt either him or his agent are that stupid.

You are a walking logical fallacy.

 

It has nothing to do with Stanton's "popularity" here; people have made it clear in this thread that it's an issue of sound baseball economics. You are twisting things around.

 

Secondly, if he does not sign in the offseason, it doesn't mean you are "right" about anything. Nobody here is offering a prediction, but they are making an assessment as to what the Marlins should do. In other words, the Marlins don't always make the right decision when it comes to buying out arbitration (see Miguel Cabrera). We are debating here whether such an action is a wise idea, not if it will happen.

 

According to that link I posted on the 2nd page (not sure if it worked for some since I was on my phone and its a mobile link) the team isn't going to sign him this offseason, but more than likely next offseason to assess how he does in the new ballpark first.

There is a sound reason to buy out arbitration ASAP, and much of it has to do with hedging against contract inflation. Lou has been alluding the point, by arguing that the going rate in 2004 and 2005 was radically different than it was in 2006-2011.

 

What happens especially is that arbitration figures keep setting the bar higher, especially for guys with impressive home run stats.

 

The practice is loosely similar to what the airlines do when they hedge fuel prices. They expect an increase in the market rate, so they lock in an agreed upon rate ASAP in order to save money.

 

Why people here can't understand this is beyond me.

Bronco. Your getting burned up my man.

 

Only because he's a popular player. But lets's see who really gets burned here this off season. Will he be signed long term?

 

I will concede there are two things that would have me sign him long term right now.

1.) His agent brings the deal to me, because I have no problem with the contract he is under right now.

2.) The $$$ and terms of that contract have to be very lopsided in my favor.

 

But if those conditions are met, Stanton should fire his agent. He would be giving away millions. And I doubt either him or his agent are that stupid.

You are a walking logical fallacy.

 

It has nothing to do with Stanton's "popularity" here; people have made it clear in this thread that it's an issue of sound baseball economics. You are twisting things around.

 

Secondly, if he does not sign in the offseason, it doesn't mean you are "right" about anything. Nobody here is offering a prediction, but they are making an assessment as to what the Marlins should do. In other words, the Marlins don't always make the right decision when it comes to buying out arbitration (see Miguel Cabrera). We are debating here whether such an action is a wise idea, not if it will happen.

 

According to that link I posted on the 2nd page (not sure if it worked for some since I was on my phone and its a mobile link) the team isn't going to sign him this offseason, but more than likely next offseason to assess how he does in the new ballpark first.

I know, I read it. However, the team is still contemplating it a lot sooner than Broncobob thinks they should be. Stanton won't enter his first arbitration year until 2014.

I'd set the over/under for July of next year, and I'd take the under. I think they do it pretty soon into the new park, right around when he's making his first all star appearance.

Mike Stanton will never get a contract extension until he hits a homer 500+ feet in game and/or makes it to HR Derby.

 

....

 

 

Now hit a upper decker tonight, Stanton. Or is Sun Life not good enough for you?

It's makes no sense to sign a guy long term that isn't even arb eligable right now.

 

This is the type of thinking that led to Miguel Cabrera being traded. Small market teams buying out arbitration and free agent years is the only way they are able to hold on to their players.

What I like about this thread is now BroncoBob has a new guy that he can derisively call "Board Golden Boy" because people he doesn't like think he's a good player.

It's makes no sense to sign a guy long term that isn't even arb eligable right now.

 

This is the type of thinking that led to Miguel Cabrera being traded. Small market teams buying out arbitration and free agent years is the only way they are able to hold on to their players.

 

Broncobob has more experience than you and I combined.

He also goes to more games and sees things that we don't get to see.

 

Respect your elders.

BroncoBob can sit on it. I dont know who contributes more to the cesspool of idocy, BroncoBob or 2003. But they are neck and neck when it comes to being remarkably stupid.

BroncoBob can sit on it. I dont know who contributes more to the cesspool of idocy, BroncoBob or 2003. But they are neck and neck when it comes to being remarkably stupid.

 

We've had at least 4 active "older" posters since I've been around here. They have all shared the same flaws. Sometimes I wonder if they are multiple personalities of the same person. They all are standoffish, stubborn, and dismissive of the "younger" crowd.

 

It's a shame because I lurk on Orioles Hangout and they have a ton of older people posting and they are all laid back, courteous, and also very knowledgeable. It's too bad that we don't have that here.

 

There's a ton of 16 year olds who say stupid stuff all the time here. It'd be nice to have an older crowd to balance that, but not if they are going to be smug.

BroncoBob can sit on it. I dont know who contributes more to the cesspool of idocy, BroncoBob or 2003. But they are neck and neck when it comes to being remarkably stupid.

 

We've had at least 4 active "older" posters since I've been around here. They have all shared the same flaws. Sometimes I wonder if they are multiple personalities of the same person. They all are standoffish, stubborn, and dismissive of the "younger" crowd.

 

It's a shame because I lurk on Orioles Hangout and they have a ton of older people posting and they are all laid back, courteous, and also very knowledgeable. It's too bad that we don't have that here.

1 Timothy 4:12

 

Let no one despise you for your youth, but set the believers an example in speech, in conduct, in love, in faith, in purity.

I could handle their smugness if they hadnt made it so clear that they are clueless.

"You are a walking logical fallacy."

That is amazing. I will use that one day, and it will be a great day.

"You are a walking logical fallacy."

That is amazing. I will use that one day, and it will be a great day.

 

Have you used it yet?

Sometimes we failed on something, but don't give up.