February 17, 201214 yr http://www.baseballt...s_miami_marlins JJ: 128 IP with a 2.66 ERA. Stanton with a .910 OPS, Reyes and Hanley both at .824 not a single pitcher with 200 IP. pretty average looking team. :punching
February 17, 201214 yr I think they look to be a bit above-average, which seems right. If they get innings out of JJ, they could make a playoff push. From all the teams already posted, it looks like Stanton has 37 HR, Fielder has 37 HR, and Bautista has 36 HR. There isn't a projection for Pujols, and there are still 6 teams left. It certainly seems like he's a real threat to win at least the NL HR crown if he stays healthy.
February 17, 201214 yr Mark Buehrle at 178 IP when he's never been under 200 in his career ... uh huh. And all the ABs people like Nick Green and Terry Tiffee get? Unless those are minor league numbers, I'm not trusting these projections.
February 17, 201214 yr Mark Buehrle at 178 IP when he's never been under 200 in his career ... uh huh. And all the ABs people like Nick Green and Terry Tiffee get? Unless those are minor league numbers, I'm not trusting these projections. They just project them as if they all get playing time, in order to give more info rather than less. It's all there in their explanations.
February 17, 201214 yr Pitcher projections are almost always extremely conservative because they have to account for the huge injury risk inherent with all pitchers.
February 17, 201214 yr Author no way Stanton hits less than 40 HR. he'll lead the NL in homers easily.
February 18, 201214 yr Mark Buehrle at 178 IP when he's never been under 200 in his career ... uh huh. And all the ABs people like Nick Green and Terry Tiffee get? Unless those are minor league numbers, I'm not trusting these projections. They just project them as if they all get playing time, in order to give more info rather than less. It's all there in their explanations. That I can understand. Pitcher projections are almost always extremely conservative because they have to account for the huge injury risk inherent with all pitchers. This I really can't. I mean, I understand injury risk and all, but Buehrle has never been injured for a long period of time [if at all, even, in his career] - his career low is 30 starts, he's averaging 33, and his career low is 201.0 IP. Granted, his innings pitched has been declining the last 4 seasons after the 201.0 IP [218.2, 213.1, 210.1, 205.1], but he's coming over to the NL, and I see that IP total rising back up to the 220 range, personally. To drop it down to 178 is insane.
February 18, 201214 yr This I really can't. I mean, I understand injury risk and all, but Buehrle has never been injured for a long period of time [if at all, even, in his career] - his career low is 30 starts, he's averaging 33, and his career low is 201.0 IP. Granted, his innings pitched has been declining the last 4 seasons after the 201.0 IP [218.2, 213.1, 210.1, 205.1], but he's coming over to the NL, and I see that IP total rising back up to the 220 range, personally. To drop it down to 178 is insane. He is going to be 33 on Opening Day. Also, the way these projection systems work is they generally run thousands upon thousands of season projections. While Buerhle might hit 200 innings in 90% of them, he might flame out in 10%, which brings the average down. They're not saying "HE'S GOING TO THROW 178 INNINGS." But pitchers are volatile as hell. They are conservative with them.
February 18, 201214 yr This I really can't. I mean, I understand injury risk and all, but Buehrle has never been injured for a long period of time [if at all, even, in his career] - his career low is 30 starts, he's averaging 33, and his career low is 201.0 IP. Granted, his innings pitched has been declining the last 4 seasons after the 201.0 IP [218.2, 213.1, 210.1, 205.1], but he's coming over to the NL, and I see that IP total rising back up to the 220 range, personally. To drop it down to 178 is insane. He is going to be 33 on Opening Day. Also, the way these projection systems work is they generally run thousands upon thousands of season projections. While Buerhle might hit 200 innings in 90% of them, he might flame out in 10%, which brings the average down. They're not saying "HE'S GOING TO THROW 178 INNINGS." But pitchers are volatile as hell. They are conservative with them. Still, though, Buehrle has never had an extended injury time during the season and every full season he's gone at least 201 innings. I can understand being conservative, but I don't think I'm being unrealistic in thinking he'll get to 200+ again.
February 18, 201214 yr That's the most likely scenario. But it's not a certainty. They are accounting for the inherent risk with pitchers.
February 18, 201214 yr Regarding the projection of Buehrle projected for 178 innings. I'd imagine that the way they do these projections programming Monte Carlo simulations by weighting the past years and projecting based on aging curves. Based on Buehrle being 33 I'd imagine most had him over 200 innings while some of the simulations came back with him throwing significantly less than 178 innings thus leaving the expected mean of 178.
February 18, 201214 yr Since turning 30 Mark has gone 213.1, 210.1, and 205.1. Against teams that have seen plenty of him to know what he is all about. First year in the NL with his track record I would guess 210 innings if he stays healthy. And I see no immediate danger of not staying healthy. Smart pitcher with a fluid delivery means less likelyhood of shoulder and/or elbow problems. It also looks like they have JJ being on the DL fairly early and/or often.
February 18, 201214 yr Since turning 30 Mark has gone 213.1, 210.1, and 205.1. Against teams that have seen plenty of him to know what he is all about. First year in the NL with his track record I would guess 210 innings if he stays healthy. And I see no immediate danger of not staying healthy. Smart pitcher with a fluid delivery means less likelyhood of shoulder and/or elbow problems. It also looks like they have JJ being on the DL fairly early and/or often. They're just conservative with the innings.
February 19, 201214 yr Since turning 30 Mark has gone 213.1, 210.1, and 205.1. Against teams that have seen plenty of him to know what he is all about. First year in the NL with his track record I would guess 210 innings if he stays healthy. And I see no immediate danger of not staying healthy. Smart pitcher with a fluid delivery means less likelyhood of shoulder and/or elbow problems. It also looks like they have JJ being on the DL fairly early and/or often. They're just conservative with the innings. Completely understood that. Just agreeing with some others and putting out there why I think he will get over 200 this year.
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