Interesting article on why Gaby Sanchez would make a better leadoff hitter than Reyes...

 

Caught an episode of Clubhouse Confidential on MLB Network Friday. For those of you unfamiliar with the show, it takes an analytical look at the news of the day and other topics using non-traditional stats. It’s great for fans that want to familiarize themselves with sabermetric stuff.

One of the areas they covered was leadoff hitting. In addition to discussing what type of offensive player should be leading off, host Brian Kenny pointed out some guys in the game that should be batting first and others that shouldn’t. A couple of Marlins came up. Kenny’s quote: “[Gaby] Sanchez, not Jose Reyes, is a better leadoff candidate for the Marlins this year.�

Seems odd, right? Reyes after all is a prototypical leadoff man in the eyes of most baseball fans. Not so says Clubhouse Confidential because he has too much power. According toThe Book: Playing the Percentage in Baseball, a leadoff man logs 36 percent of his plate appearances with the bases empty. That figure for the No. 2 hitter increase to 44 percent. For third and fourth hitters, 48 percent and 51 percent, respectively.

Based on that, teams that have a power hitter in the leadoff spot aren’t maximizing that pop. Reyes in 2011 slugged a career high .493 thanks in part to a league-leading 16 triples. He also totaled 31 doubles and seven homers. What the show didn’t mention is even after last season Reyes’ career slugging percentage is .441, which makes him a little more palatable as a leadoff man based on the aforementioned premise.

The other big stat for leadoff men is on-base percentage, a component of which is walks. Top of the order hitters come up with no outs in 48 percent of their plate appearances.The two through four spots are 33 percent, 28 percent and 34 percent, respectively. That means a walk is as good as a hit for leadoff men. Ideally, you want your leadoff man to draw a base on balls in 10 percent or better of his plate appearances.

Although Reyes had a .384 on-base percentage in 2011, his walk rate was 7.3 percent, raising his career average to 6.9 percent. Clubhouse Confidential tells us Reyes has too much power and doesn’t walk enough to hit first. Their alternative: Sanchez.

Sanchez had a .352 on-base percentage, walked in 11.2 percent of his plate appearances and slugged .427. Again, Clubhouse Confidential didn’t take into account the numbers from his 2010 rookie season (.341 on-base, .448 slugging and 8.9 percent walk rate).

One player the show did not mention was Emilio Bonifacio, who likely will bat first this season. Bonifacio had a breakout season in 2011, reaching base at a .360 clip and walking in 9.2 percent of his plate appearances. He doesn’t hit for power, plus he is a prolific base stealer, so I was surprised Clubhouse Confidential didn’t identify him as a better leadoff candidate than either Reyes or Sanchez.

From Twitter comments I’ve received, plenty of Marlins fans aren’t sold on Bonifacio. Manager Jack McKeon really got him playing with confidence last season. Bonifacio taking half a step back in 2012 wouldn’t surprise me. His batting average on balls in play last season was .372. In 2009, his BABIP was .312 and in 2010 it was .333. Anything much higher or lower than .300 suggests that player will see a regression or a rebound.

My Opening Night batting order: Bonifacio, Reyes, Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison, Sanchez, Buck, Infante, Johnson.

 

http://blogs.sun-sen...by-sanchez.html

I've always been one of those people who think it's idiotic to hit a guy lead off just because he can run while overlooking the fact that he has a terrible OBP.

 

However, I'm not sure I agree with this conclusion. If Reyes has better power, it's not by much (Reyes has a .441 SLG in his career--just short of .500 last year, but he's been so inconsistent over his whole career in that regard so it's hard to make a projection). Gaby's SLG over 2010-2011 is .437 which isn't that much lower.

 

Reyes' SLG is also probably inflated because of his high number of triples where he's stretching doubles into triples. That's not really a mark of greater power, but of his ability to use his speed.

 

Not to mention the fact that while speed shouldn't be the only factor in deciding who hits leadoff, but it's still an asset. I'd like to see Bonifacio hitting lead-off if he can sustain a ~.350ish OBP. I don't expect his power surge to be repeated.

Bonifacio would be the perfect leadoff hitter for this team if he could do what he did last year. 9.2 BB%, over 4 pitches per plate appearance.

 

Reyes would be the perfect #2 hitter; I've thought that since he signed. He's a great contact hitter, can make things happen with his speed, and has more power than Bonifacio, obviously.

 

That would be my lineup.

 

Ozzie already said it would be Reyes 1st, Bonifacio 2nd, etc. though.

Hitting Reyes before Bonifacio is just Ozzie being Ozzie. It's antiquated thinking.

 

I would do this:

 

Bonifacio

Reyes

Ramirez

Stanton

Morrison

Sanchez

Infante

Buck

 

Maybe switch Buck/Infante. Move Bonifacio down if he can't get on base at a respectable rate.

Things can always change depending on how the season progresses.

I wish Ozzie's son still played at Pace. He's a fun guy to talk to. Seems like the type of guy who would probably listen to a fan's idea if the idea makes sense too.

Things can always change depending on how the season progresses.

 

Of course, but things will probably stay intact for the first several weeks and it's smart to try to structure your team most efficiently from the beginning.

Might just be me thinking outside the box here, since I know the best all-around hitter is supposed to be third, but why not Stanton 3rd and Hanley 4th? I feel that Stanton would be given more pitches to hit this way (also later in the game as well) than with LoMo or Gaby behind him, especially considering Logan is a lefty and the opposing team [more-so late in games] could just bring in their specialist to face him. If you had Stanton third and they walk him, you got Hanley who, if he lives up to that commercial [i lol just saying that], will be great to have there batting with a runner [or more] on.

 

Just an idea.

Things can always change depending on how the season progresses.

 

Of course, but things will probably stay intact for the first several weeks and it's smart to try to structure your team most efficiently from the beginning.

 

Yeah, I bet we see Reyes in the leadoff spot all year, really.

Gaby has too much power leading off...but if he managed .290-.310 as lead off, yes please.

Interesting article on this topic...

 

There are becoming less and less prototypical leadoff hitters in the league. In fact, none of the teams that made the playoffs last year had a prototypical leadoff hitter.

 

Only 6 players last year had an OBP above .350 and 30+ steals: Reyes, Bonifacio, Kemp, Ellsbury, Braun, and Kinsler.

 

The average OBP for leadoff hitters has gone down to .329 over the last 2 seasons as they are striking out more and walking less.

 

According to Scioscia the leadoff position is actually getting better as instead of just getting on base they're also driving the ball a lot more often. The problem is that they're not actually getting on base as much as they used to. From 2000-2009 the average OBP for leadoff hitters was .341 (.347 in the 90's), but over the last 2 years its gone down to .329.

 

Maybe as Bourjos contends the leadoff position will go back to the way it was before as the league clears up all the steroids issues...

 

The leadoff spot isn't what it used to be, or even what it was originally intended to be. For proof, you don't have to look too far.

 

Just think back to the 2011 postseason.

 

At the top of their lineups, the Brewers had Corey Hart and the Rangers had Ian Kinsler (two power hitters); the Yankees had Derek Jeter, the Phillies had Jimmy Rollins and the Cardinals had Rafael Furcal (three aging shortstops); the D-backs had Willie Bloomquist and the Tigers had Austin Jackson (two guys with .317 on-base percentages in 2011); and the Rays had Desmond Jennings (a rookie).

 

So, to put it another way, none of the eight teams that reached the playoffs needed a prototypical table-setter to get there.

 

Trend? Anomaly? It's hard to tell. But it does seem like the traditional leadoff hitter -- who specializes in working the count, drawing walks, making contact and almost entirely using his speed -- is a dying breed in today's game.

 

In 2012, young Angels center fielder Peter Bourjos is hoping to become a part of that endangered species, but first he'll have to improve his strikeout total -- one that ranked 15th in the American League this past season.

 

He, too, notices there are fewer and fewer players who can lead off these days.

And Bourjos has an interesting theory as to why that may be the case.

 

"I think from a young age, all these kids are saying they want to hit for power," Bourjos said. "I don't think too many guys are sitting there in Little League or in high school saying, 'I want to be a leadoff guy.'"

 

In a sense, it has always been like that. As Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine once put it: "Chicks dig the long ball." As Ralph Kiner was deemed to have said long ago: "Home run hitters drive Cadillacs, and singles hitters drive Fords."

 

But in this day and age -- with baseball distancing itself from the steroid era, when guys like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds made previous home run records laughable -- the desire to hit balls over fences seems to be even greater for developing ballplayers.

 

I, for one, preferred the fast leadoff hitter over the mighty home-run hitter growing up. I was drawn to the Willie Mays Hayes character in "Major League," loved watching the weak-hitting Chuck Carr play and bought all of Kenny Lofton's shoes.

 

But I was the minority.

 

"There are guys out there that relish [consistently getting on base], but there are those that don't," said Brett Butler, a former All-Star, longtime leadoff hitter and current Triple-A manager in the D-backs system.

 

"They don't try to walk, they're not looking to lay down a bunt. They're not looking to do that because, let's face it, the game today has changed in regard to putting up numbers, that the home runs and RBIs are going to get you more value. And the fact of the matter is a lot of them look at it that way. But you still have those that understand what the importance of a leadoff guy is all about and in fact knows, 'If I get on base, that's going to help our club win.' And they're selfless players that do that."

 

Ichiro Suzuki and Juan Pierre are two good examples, but Pierre is 34 and Ichiro is 38, and neither is as productive as he once was.

 

In fact, the list of players who finished 2011 with at least a .350 on-base percentage and 30 steals is quite short: Jose Reyes (formerly of the Mets), Emilio Bonifacio (Marlins), Matt Kemp (Dodgers), Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox), Ryan Braun (Brewers) and Kinsler.

 

Of that group, only four -- Reyes, Bonifacio, Ellsbury and Kinsler -- did most of the leading off for their respective teams.

 

But Angels manager Mike Scioscia doesn't believe the production from the leadoff spot is diminishing. Instead, he looks at guys like Ellsbury, Kinsler, Hart and Andrew McCutchen -- those who bring power to the first spot of the order, a la Bobby Bonds in the 1970s -- and actually sees it getting better.

 

"I think you're seeing more dynamic players," Scioscia said. "So if anything, it's improving, because they're bringing the on-base [percentage] that a prototypical leadoff hitter takes, but they're combining it with the ability to drive the ball out of the park. And that's a unique combination."

Whatever your perspective, it's hard to deny that it's different -- on-base percentage and walks are down, strikeouts are up.

 

The on-base percentage from leadoff hitters went from .347 in the 1990s, to .341 from 2000-09, to .329 the last two seasons. In those same time frames, plate appearances per strikeout went from 7.47 to 7.13 to 6.30; and plate appearances per walk went from 10.63 to 12.13 to 12.75, respectively.

 

As Butler will tell you, it's all about developing a mindset with young players -- a task that's seemingly harder today.

 

"I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between the way it was then and the way it is now," Butler said. "I just think today, it's more of a lack of education for these players to have the ability to do that."

 

But the game has a tendency to change from era to era, and history has always had a tendency to repeat itself.

 

Maybe someday, the speedy, slap-hitting leadoff man will rule the land once again -- and perhaps Bourjos will no longer be part of an endangered species.

 

"I think it'll eventually get back to that, just because they've cleaned out the game with steroids," Bourjos said. "I think you're starting to get rid of the steroids aspect, so the speed is going to come back. I think you're going to see more of the prototypical leadoff guys come back into the game. But it might not be for a little bit."

 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...171852&c_id=mlb

What are the comparable league-wide stats, though? All offense has gone down since 2009, apparently due to steroids use being reduced.

What are the comparable league-wide stats, though? All offense has gone down since 2009, apparently due to steroids use being reduced.

 

Good point. Not sure where to find that.

 

In this chart the red line is the average OBP for leadoff hitters with 400+ PA's and the red circles are the average OBP for all leadoff hitters combined when actually leading off (note: this chart is 2 years old):

For laughs I thought I'd throw out the worst leadoff hitter of All-Time...

 

In 1981 Ivan DeJesus started 59 games for the Cubs in the leadoff position (265 PA's) and in those games he had a .173 BA with a .272 OBP. Overall his stats weren't much better: .194 BA, .276 OBP.

 

I'm really not sure how you leave someone in the lineup (let alone leading off) when they can't even hit .200...

 

EVEN FUNNIER: Phillies GM Paul Owens decided that then would be the perfect time to trade for this guy so he traded both Admin Bowa and Ryan Sandberg to the Cubs in order to get him! Wow...

Nobody wants to comment on my idea?

Nobody wants to comment on my idea?

 

 

Different but I say why not of there struggling.

I don't follow any organization as closely as I follow the Marlins, but I suspect we are one of the least sabermetrically-inclined teams in baseball. Or at least it appears they don't let analytics play a major role in decision making. Its speculation obviously, but there is evidence of this in the way the team handled Bonifacio in 2009, and Dominguez last spring.

 

I think there's zero chance this team and Ozzie experiment with Gaby batting 1st. Not that I agree that it would optimize overall production, I just think its far too unconventional for this FO.

 

I also expect Bonifacio to regress, and Infante to get better. And I'm of the opinion that you try to maximize the PA of your best offensive players. So if the team is set on Reyes batting 1st, then theoretically one of Bonifacio or Infante is going to get significantly more PA than the other over the course of the season. Weighing in the offensive value of Boner's baserunning (net steals, first to third, etc.), I would give the second slot to whoever happens to be the better offensive player. Baserunning still has value down the order, and it doesn't compensate for a poor OBP.

Might just be me thinking outside the box here, since I know the best all-around hitter is supposed to be third, but why not Stanton 3rd and Hanley 4th? I feel that Stanton would be given more pitches to hit this way (also later in the game as well) than with LoMo or Gaby behind him, especially considering Logan is a lefty and the opposing team [more-so late in games] could just bring in their specialist to face him. If you had Stanton third and they walk him, you got Hanley who, if he lives up to that commercial [i lol just saying that], will be great to have there batting with a runner [or more] on.

 

Just an idea.

 

 

"Protection" is fake and makes absolutely no sense.

 

Tell me, why would you throw Mike Stanton better pitches because Hanley Ramirez is behind him? If you throw mike stanton better pitches, there's a higher likely hood that he gets on base.

 

No matter what, you're pitching to get a guy out. Whatever the best means possible. You're not going to throw somebody better pitches because there's somebody better behind him, that makes absolutely no sense what so ever. Hell, because Hanley would be behind him is all the more reason to throw him pitches he can't do sh*t with.

Maybe I should have said "intentionally walked less," or "given more opportunities," not necessarily better pitches to hit.

What I would do that would certainly not be done

 

Reyes

Hanley

Lomo

Stanton

Gaby

Buck

Infante

Pitcher

Bonifacio

 

f*** giving Infante or Bonifacio among the most PA. Give them to our big 4. And still puts Bonifacio's speed ahead of the big hitters.

Maybe I should have said "intentionally walked less," or "given more opportunities," not necessarily better pitches to hit.

 

 

The only time an IBB would really make sense is with the LOOGY situation you brought up.

 

If he goes legendary and turns into Bonds/Pujols/what have you, yeah that's something you have got to worry about. But that's not something to worry about yet, he was only IBB'd 6 times last year. When he stops having so many holes and starts leading the league in OPS, then you take that into consideration.

 

As of now though, he's just a super good hitter with maximum power. The 4th spot takes the most advantage of that.

Maybe I should have said "intentionally walked less," or "given more opportunities," not necessarily better pitches to hit.

 

 

The only time an IBB would really make sense is with the LOOGY situation you brought up.

 

If he goes legendary and turns into Bonds/Pujols/what have you, yeah that's something you have got to worry about. But that's not something to worry about yet, he was only IBB'd 6 times last year. When he stops having so many holes and starts leading the league in OPS, then you take that into consideration.

 

As of now though, he's just a super good hitter with maximum power. The 4th spot takes the most advantage of that.

Gotcha. Alrighty.

What I would do that would certainly not be done

 

Reyes

Hanley

Lomo

Stanton

Gaby

Buck

Infante

Pitcher

Bonifacio

 

f*** giving Infante or Bonifacio among the most PA. Give them to our big 4. And still puts Bonifacio's speed ahead of the big hitters.

 

Bonifacio had the highest BA (.296) & OBP (.360) on the team last season and you want him to hit all the way at the bottom of the order?

 

The second place hitter is supposed to be a player who is both able to get on base at a high percentage as well as be able to handle the bat. Boni not only proved he could get on base last season but he also proved he could handle the bat as he really improved on his bunting and ended the season with the second highest BA in the league on bunts (.593, 16 for 27). I think Boni should hit second & I believe that's where Ozzie is gonna put him.

I think he's accounting for a very likely regression.

What Mike said. I expect him to go back to hitting sub-.270 with a sub-.330 OBP.

 

And f*** bunting. Give me power.