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4/29 post game


OnTopOfPhils
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at least maybe Stanton will get on track...

 

 

This.

 

I felt JJ made a bad choice in the hit to the pitcher. He made him look bad on a slider down and in and then, at 1-2, came back with a fastball away that was off the plate. Then he came back with another fastball away that got punched down the 3rd base line. Yes, you wouldn't expect a pitcher to hit that, but should've come back with another slider down and in. The funny is that in the next AB against the pitcher, JJ did finish him off with a slider down and in so he knew his mistake.

 

But still... the offense isn't helping out the mentality of the pitcher at all. I don't recall seeing JJ go above 93 and he seemed to be living around 91, but stil.... when the starting pitching has been as good as it is has in the last week or so and they're still losing... the pitchers start to feel the pressure of having to be perfect. Then maybe they pick around the plate a bit more and don't be as aggressive because they're afraid of making one mistake that will cost them.

 

JJ just didn't have a fastball that was any threat at all, they were sitting on it and getting their chain of singles to peck us to death. This being the same sh*t that happened against the Cardinals and Phillies in his first two starts of the year.

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I disagree with both of you.

 

You both seem to be suggesting that he's being "singled to death" because of factors independent of the quality of his pitching. I don't think that's true at all.

 

He has a 27% for his LD% which is pretty high. That's largely responsible for the high BABIP and large number of singles.

 

His contact% is also considerably higher than his 2009-2010 norm. His swinging strike% is also down a bit too.

 

Hitters are definitely locking in on him more than they used to. I suspect that the 1.5-2 MPH drop in his fastball has something to do with it.

 

Of course, I don't think he'll pitch at this level necessarily for the whole season (at least I can't say that yet), but I don't think he's on the verge of breaking into his "old self."

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His LD% was, I believe, over 40 after 2 starts. That # is going to go down over the course of the year.

 

The first couple of starts, he really did not seem like himself. Last couple of starts, he's getting K's again.

 

For the year, he's at a 7.85 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and 56 GB%. Hasn't allowed a HR and hasn't allowed many XBH's for that matter. I can't predict just how dominant he'll be the rest of the way, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't have another very good year pending he stays healthy.

 

.436 .BABIP's are unsustainable.

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His LD% was, I believe, over 40 after 2 starts. That # is going to go down over the course of the year.

 

The first couple of starts, he really did not seem like himself. Last couple of starts, he's getting K's again.

 

For the year, he's at a 7.85 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and 56 GB%. Hasn't allowed a HR and hasn't allowed many XBH's for that matter. I can't predict just how dominant he'll be the rest of the way, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't have another very good year pending he stays healthy.

 

.436 .BABIP's are unsustainable.

 

You aren't being consistent in your argumentation here.

 

You bring up the fact that he leads the league in singles, but for some odd reason brush off the fact that his LD% has been really high in starts where he's been hit around a lot. On Sunday, for one, his LD% was almost 30. That's not just some fluke, it means that hitters were locked in on him.

 

In other words, I'm taking issue with your statement that his "peripherals are just fine." That isn't really true at all over the course of all of his starts. The increase in strikeouts over the past two is promising, but the LD numbers on Sunday indicate that he's not giving up singles because of bad luck.

 

That BABIP is going to come down, yeah, but you are completely ignoring the role that Johnson's had in giving up those singles. On opening night he gave up 10 hits, but also 9 line drives. It should really be no surprise that he's been giving up a ton of singles. It basically means that hitters are making some good contact off of him (at least much better than they used to). I don't think that we'll see ace numbers out of him unless he can dial that fastball back up to the ~94 MPH range (he's been in the low to mid 92s so far).

 

So I'm saying that he's been hit up terribly in three starts (1, 2, 5), but over those starts his LD% is over 32. In those cases it's not really sh*t luck that he's given up all of those singles.

 

I also think you are wrong in saying that a 7.85 K/9 over the course of the whole season is "just fine" for him, when that would be the lowest of his career and not that much higher than league average. That number will certainly go up at the rate he's going, but it's not really as good as you are trying to make it out to be.

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My point is that the K/BB ratio along with the lack of extra base hits allowed usually gives much better results than his ERA shows thus far.

 

The LD% will come down. Not even the worst pitchers in the big leagues end up with LD%'s that high over the course of a full season.

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Wonder when JJ's velocity is going to be a concern.. Seems a lot of people are turning a blind eye to it

 

 

I think he's still bulding up arm strength. Not really concerned at this point. The bats do need to wake up so the pitchers have more confidence in what they are doing. Looked like JJ was throwing and not pitching. Trying to be too perfect.

 

I did notice a couple of those singles it didn't look like Hanley was giving 100%. Thought if he left his feet he had a real good shot at nabbing them. Kinda reminded me of when Miggy was over there and I used to yell to at least wave at them as they went by.

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