I don't see any comparison that would put Stanton in only the $3-5 million range in his first year. He might not be a $9-10 million player, but if he stays healthy I'd expect something in the $7-8 range to be within the realm of possibility.

Cabrera got $7.4M in '07.

 

With salary inflation over 7 years ('07 to '14) and with Stanton having outplayed Cabrera (slightly) through their first 2.5 years, I don't see why Stanton would only get what Cabrera got. The $7M to $8M number seems too low.

 

Ryan Howard won $10 Million in Arbitration after a 47 HR, .268 BA and 200K Season. All of those number seem very, very attainable for Stanton.

 

 

The Phillies offered Howard $7MM basing that number on what Cabrera earned his first time through.

 

Except the $10 Million. I bet Stanton earns about $11 in arbitration for more HR's, a Higher BA and the same amount of K's.

I don't see any comparison that would put Stanton in only the $3-5 million range in his first year. He might not be a $9-10 million player, but if he stays healthy I'd expect something in the $7-8 range to be within the realm of possibility.

Cabrera got $7.4M in '07.

 

With salary inflation over 7 years ('07 to '14) and with Stanton having outplayed Cabrera (slightly) through their first 2.5 years, I don't see why Stanton would only get what Cabrera got. The $7M to $8M number seems too low.

 

Ryan Howard won $10 Million in Arbitration after a 47 HR, .268 BA and 200K Season. All of those number seem very, very attainable for Stanton.

 

 

The Phillies offered Howard $7MM basing that number on what Cabrera earned his first time through.

 

Except the $10 Million. I bet Stanton earns about $11 in arbitration for more HR's, a Higher BA and the same amount of K's.

 

 

The first arbitration year is based heavily on the career-to-date numbers.

Yeah, even if you consider contract inflation, it's pretty silly to expect Stanton to eclipse Howard (who won the MVP and had 58 and 47 HR seasons on the books). Stanton is certainly capable of 40+ HRs in 2013 if he stays healthy, but his resume won't be as appealing as Howard's was.

Stanton will be close to Howard offensively and way ahead defensively.

 

Mid 40s in HRs this year and Stanton will get his $10M in 2014.

Stanton will be close to Howard offensively and way ahead defensively.

 

Mid 40s in HRs this year and Stanton will get his $10M in 2014.

 

When's the last time defensive numbers played any significant role in an arbitration decision? These guys value "crap" like RBIs.

I wouldn't be surprised if Stanton's injury history carries more weight than his defensive ability.

I stand by my thought that Stanton will not sign anything that takes him past his arby years. That is by no means a long term contract. It is basically a renegotiation of his current contract. Him and his agent(s) are going to want the guaranteed $$$ (in case of injury) but will want to hit FA, and out of Miami, as soon as they can.

I stand by my thought that Stanton will not sign anything that takes him past his arby years. That is by no means a long term contract. It is basically a renegotiation of his current contract. Him and his agent(s) are going to want the guaranteed $$$ (in case of injury) but will want to hit FA, and out of Miami, as soon as they can.

So why would the Marlins offer anything if that is the case? Why be on the hook in the event of injury-if Stanton received a very significant offer to extend beyond arbi years and his agents tell him to wait 3 years and risk everything-that is a serious rolling of the dice for a young man who could have his whole life secure by the time he is 24 years of age.

I stand by my thought that Stanton will not sign anything that takes him past his arby years. That is by no means a long term contract. It is basically a renegotiation of his current contract. Him and his agent(s) are going to want the guaranteed $$$ (in case of injury) but will want to hit FA, and out of Miami, as soon as they can.

So why would the Marlins offer anything if that is the case? Why be on the hook in the event of injury-if Stanton received a very significant offer to extend beyond arbi years and his agents tell him to wait 3 years and risk everything-that is a serious rolling of the dice for a young man who could have his whole life secure by the time he is 24 years of age.

Because then you at least know what you are paying going forward instead of having to try to readjust things going forward, you can do more long range planning for salaries.

I stand by my thought that Stanton will not sign anything that takes him past his arby years. That is by no means a long term contract. It is basically a renegotiation of his current contract. Him and his agent(s) are going to want the guaranteed $$$ (in case of injury) but will want to hit FA, and out of Miami, as soon as they can.

So why would the Marlins offer anything if that is the case? Why be on the hook in the event of injury-if Stanton received a very significant offer to extend beyond arbi years and his agents tell him to wait 3 years and risk everything-that is a serious rolling of the dice for a young man who could have his whole life secure by the time he is 24 years of age.

 

Because then you at least know what you are paying going forward instead of having to try to readjust things going forward, you can do more long range planning for salaries.

Not really. You just put aside stantons projected arbitration money every year.Arbitration is hard to fully predict though. With signing a long term deal through arbitration you know exactly what you are paying. In the Marlins case it doesnt really matter since they have no salary commitments as it is.

You buy out arbitration years even without extending Stanton to try to get a bargain. It's a hedge against contract inflation or the possibility of Stanton establishing himself further while he's arbitration eligible. For one, a 50 HR season would raise his value.

I stand by my thought that Stanton will not sign anything that takes him past his arby years. That is by no means a long term contract. It is basically a renegotiation of his current contract. Him and his agent(s) are going to want the guaranteed $$$ (in case of injury) but will want to hit FA, and out of Miami, as soon as they can.

So why would the Marlins offer anything if that is the case? Why be on the hook in the event of injury-if Stanton received a very significant offer to extend beyond arbi years and his agents tell him to wait 3 years and risk everything-that is a serious rolling of the dice for a young man who could have his whole life secure by the time he is 24 years of age.

They MAY offer him a lot. It's what he will accept that I question. There are other star OFers that will come arby eligible during his arby years, so they would be smart to sign him to what they can in the thought those others will also be pushing up the bar on salaries. The Marlins would be saving themselves $$$ in the long run, and Stanton will be getting what he apparently would be wanting. Plus the Marlins would be able to tell the fan base that at least they tried to sign him long term. It doesn't matter if anyone actually believes he would be here for 10+ years, it's the spin they could throw. But this is just the scenario I see, that he wants out of Miami. Not just because of how things are run here, either. How many other players that left here said they didn't like playing in front of small "crowds?" You have to take everything into consideration.

 

Besides, exactly how much $$$ do you need to be set for life? Just signing through his arby years should/will do that even IF some career ending injury should happen. It's really not that much of a gamble for life long financial stability on his part.

8 years 120 million

Okay, now that you have worked over what Stanton might want, what would most benefit his agent? Most young players seem to rely largely on their agents' recommendations which, big surprise, are usually what is best for the agent. This usually seems to override any thoughts the younger player might have about what city would be most appealing, or just how many millions of dollars you really need to be comfortable for life.

Okay, now that you have worked over what Stanton might want, what would most benefit his agent? Most young players seem to rely largely on their agents' recommendations which, big surprise, are usually what is best for the agent. This usually seems to override any thoughts the younger player might have about what city would be most appealing, or just how many millions of dollars you really need to be comfortable for life.

Disagree. Not because I disagree with the agent going for the $$$, but mainly because you are saying the player is only talking/listening to their agent. I find it hard to believe there aren't other people in a player's life that they listen to. If for nothing else to get their thoughts before making big decisions. Parents, other family members, other players that have been through this part of the process, etc... I don't think any person would make a huge life decision without at least consulting those that they fully trust. Whether or not they listen to them is irrelevant. There are plenty of agents available and any agent that is looking out for himself first is soon to be fired.

Okay, now that you have worked over what Stanton might want, what would most benefit his agent? Most young players seem to rely largely on their agents' recommendations which, big surprise, are usually what is best for the agent. This usually seems to override any thoughts the younger player might have about what city would be most appealing, or just how many millions of dollars you really need to be comfortable for life.

Disagree. Not because I disagree with the agent going for the $$$, but mainly because you are saying the player is only talking/listening to their agent. I find it hard to believe there aren't other people in a player's life that they listen to. If for nothing else to get their thoughts before making big decisions. Parents, other family members, other players that have been through this part of the process, etc... I don't think any person would make a huge life decision without at least consulting those that they fully trust. Whether or not they listen to them is irrelevant. There are plenty of agents available and any agent that is looking out for himself first is soon to be fired.

It is so unusual for a player not to go for the highest dollar that when it happens it makes news. Only rarely do you hear of a young player saying he doesn't really need $10 million a year for 6 years when he could do quite well with $8 million so that he can live near his home town or play for a team he has always wanted to play for. Agents and players union reps tell players that they have to take the biggest bucks because that will affect what is offered to other players. "You don't want to mess up your teammate's future by accepting less than you are worth." Sure players will talk to their families and friends, but it should be no surprise that the agent and the players association usually have a lot more influence on a young player's money decisions than anyone else, and their interests almost always lie with going for the biggest payoff.

Okay, now that you have worked over what Stanton might want, what would most benefit his agent? Most young players seem to rely largely on their agents' recommendations which, big surprise, are usually what is best for the agent. This usually seems to override any thoughts the younger player might have about what city would be most appealing, or just how many millions of dollars you really need to be comfortable for life.

Disagree. Not because I disagree with the agent going for the $$$, but mainly because you are saying the player is only talking/listening to their agent. I find it hard to believe there aren't other people in a player's life that they listen to. If for nothing else to get their thoughts before making big decisions. Parents, other family members, other players that have been through this part of the process, etc... I don't think any person would make a huge life decision without at least consulting those that they fully trust. Whether or not they listen to them is irrelevant. There are plenty of agents available and any agent that is looking out for himself first is soon to be fired.

It is so unusual for a player not to go for the highest dollar that when it happens it makes news. Only rarely do you hear of a young player saying he doesn't really need $10 million a year for 6 years when he could do quite well with $8 million so that he can live near his home town or play for a team he has always wanted to play for. Agents and players union reps tell players that they have to take the biggest bucks because that will affect what is offered to other players. "You don't want to mess up your teammate's future by accepting less than you are worth." Sure players will talk to their families and friends, but it should be no surprise that the agent and the players association usually have a lot more influence on a young player's money decisions than anyone else, and their interests almost always lie with going for the biggest payoff.

 

Apparently missed the entire point. No long term contract just because of the higher cash reward that may come from it. At best just signing through the arby years and then take the big contract someplace else when he hits FA. He may set records with his realigned contract through arby, but let those other players set the bar for his real contract. Miami has such a bad reputation with other players, agents and the players union that I doubt they say one negative word.