January 27, 201311 yr I haven't listened to the whole thing yet but according to Frisario there was at least some talk that I would consider hopeful on the Stanton front. Sounds like (as we sort of guessed) they want to first get the team together and hope that Stanton will bond with these guys and everything will be roses again... Frisario's latest article which references the insider show is titled: Marlins hopeful Stanton settles in this spring Beinfest says club considering long-term contract for slugger Now that's not necessarily anything new - of course they've had discussions about it and doesn't mean anything concrete either way. But it's always nice to hear.
January 27, 201311 yr Thats great to hear.but we must remember stanton is not stupid.hes not going to fall into that I dont think.i think stanton has had enough will this recent mass trading.im not saying I personally dont love our current team.
January 27, 201311 yr Stanton would be stupid if he turned down an offer of over 100 million right now. There's no guarantees and he could have a career ending injury even. No way he should walk away from life changing money and I really doubt he would if we do offer him a long term deal.
January 27, 201311 yr Thats essentially 7/190ish 27 mil a year seems a bit excessive, even for Stanton. I mean he is making dick this year, he will make some 3-5 mil in his first arby year and bout 6-9 in his second arby year. may be more 7/185 at worst essentially, still seems a bit excessive
January 27, 201311 yr So what happens if Stanton comes to spring and the Marlins team is even worse than feared? Yes a career ending injury is always a risk in baseball but its really not all that common a thing for position players. A bigger and more certain risk for Stanton would be getting stuck to a team with a bad front office that wont put the pieces around him to win. He knows that other teams not only offer a better chance to win but will also give him a higher pay day. There's zero chance he'll sign with the Marlins so long as this front office is in place.
January 27, 201311 yr Too bad he hasn't been forced to make that decision yet due to the stupidity of our front office.
January 27, 201311 yr He'd be stupid not to take the money. Odds are we'll trade him anyway if we stink for a few years.
January 27, 201311 yr If I'm him I take my chances at never going to the postseason for 7 years vs having to get a real, shitty paying job because of a freak injury. He's less likely to sustain a freak career ending injury than he is to be stuck on a shitty Marlins team. The guy is a competitor. He wants to win. I'm glad you guys are still optimistic about this team even after it continuously craps on you.
January 27, 201311 yr I can't think of anyone who had 3 or 4 years to go to free agency who turned down 100 mill+. Or even 50 mill. Why would Stanton be the only one who is immune to the pressure to sign and the benefits of signing? He's not wealthy, his family isn't wealthy. He could blow out his floating-bodies-removed right knee and either be done or drastically reduce his future potential. Then there's the previous undiagnosed soreness in his left knee that kept him out of most of ST in '12 and many games early in the season. He seems to be susceptible to knee problems. Never mind all of the other bad things that can happen to a player, on or off the field. Just ask Nick Johnson what 14 trips to the DL in 12 years (including 2 years he was out the entire year) does to your career earnings. He'd be crazy not to take a guaranteed 100 mill.
January 27, 201311 yr I can't think of anyone who had 3 or 4 years to go to free agency who turned down 100 mill+. Or even 50 mill. He wont have to wait three or four years. If he lets it be known that he wants to be traded, the Marlins will do it before hand to a contending team and get prospects in return. This team is likely to give him a larger contract than the Marlins ever would. Stanton is not signing with the Marlins but neither are they going to let him go to free agency.
January 28, 201311 yr Stanton is not signing with the Marlins but neither are they going to let him go to free agency. Neither you nor I know either of those things. If one considers him to be worth 20 mill/yr, the Marlins cash payroll savings over 4 years will be maybe 50-55 mill. How else can Loria generate that kind of value to the franchise with little investment, almost no risk and no effort other than showing up at 3 arb hearings -- all regardless of whether Stanton wants to be traded or not? He can't. Meanwhile, he sells tickets and the worst case is they get one or two draft picks if he leaves in '17. If he gets traded, it would likely be in July '16 after Loria has picked up 95% of the salary discount to be had. That's 3.5 years out -- so, yeah, he might very well have to "wait three or four years." The reasons he would likely accept an offer of 100 mill+ have already been laid out. Add being made aware by the Marlins that he will be kept at least until July '16 if he doesn't sign just makes the case for signing more compelling. Then, there's the possibility that the '13 and/or '14 and/or '15 teams are better than expected and he decides he likes being a Marlin and likes his new teammates and can't wait to sign long-term. They've got plenty of time to turn the situation around.
January 28, 201311 yr Thats essentially 7/190ish 27 mil a year seems a bit excessive, even for Stanton. I mean he is making dick this year, he will make some 3-5 mil in his first arby year and bout 6-9 in his second arby year. may be more 7/185 at worst essentially, still seems a bit excessive Those arbitration numbers are ridiculous. If he maintains his 2011-2012 level and goes through arbitration, he'll get about $9M in 2014 and about $13M 2015.
January 28, 201311 yr Thats essentially 7/190ish 27 mil a year seems a bit excessive, even for Stanton. I mean he is making dick this year, he will make some 3-5 mil in his first arby year and bout 6-9 in his second arby year. may be more 7/185 at worst essentially, still seems a bit excessive Those arbitration numbers are ridiculous. If he maintains his 2011-2012 level and goes through arbitration, he'll get about $9M in 2014 and about $13M 2015. What guy has ever gotten 9 million in his first year of arbitration? question
January 28, 201311 yr Thats essentially 7/190ish 27 mil a year seems a bit excessive, even for Stanton. I mean he is making dick this year, he will make some 3-5 mil in his first arby year and bout 6-9 in his second arby year. may be more 7/185 at worst essentially, still seems a bit excessive Those arbitration numbers are ridiculous. If he maintains his 2011-2012 level and goes through arbitration, he'll get about $9M in 2014 and about $13M 2015. What guy has ever gotten 9 million in his first year of arbitration? question I believe that Ryan Howard got $10 million in his first year of arbitration.
January 28, 201311 yr Thats essentially 7/190ish 27 mil a year seems a bit excessive, even for Stanton. I mean he is making dick this year, he will make some 3-5 mil in his first arby year and bout 6-9 in his second arby year. may be more 7/185 at worst essentially, still seems a bit excessive Those arbitration numbers are ridiculous. If he maintains his 2011-2012 level and goes through arbitration, he'll get about $9M in 2014 and about $13M 2015. What guy has ever gotten 9 million in his first year of arbitration? question I believe that Ryan Howard got $10 million in his first year of arbitration. Forgot about him. If i recall that was supposedly based on him being older or something as well. if Stanton wants 10 mil though, he might want to think about winning an MVP award this year. Howard was coming off top 5 MVP finish and before that winning an MVP award. Stanton wont get 10 million based on potential alone. He doesnt have any major award to his name. Buster Posey just got 8 million in his first year and his resume is much better than Stanton's. I stand behind my projections unless Stanton either hits 50 homers or wins a major award this upcoming season.
January 28, 201311 yr Thats essentially 7/190ish 27 mil a year seems a bit excessive, even for Stanton. I mean he is making dick this year, he will make some 3-5 mil in his first arby year and bout 6-9 in his second arby year. may be more 7/185 at worst essentially, still seems a bit excessive Those arbitration numbers are ridiculous. If he maintains his 2011-2012 level and goes through arbitration, he'll get about $9M in 2014 and about $13M 2015. What guy has ever gotten 9 million in his first year of arbitration? question I believe that Ryan Howard got $10 million in his first year of arbitration. Yup. Phillies offered $7 million, but Ryan was awarded $10.
January 28, 201311 yr I don't see any comparison that would put Stanton in only the $3-5 million range in his first year. He might not be a $9-10 million player, but if he stays healthy I'd expect something in the $7-8 range to be within the realm of possibility.
January 28, 201311 yr Breakdown for Stanton 10/200 contract: Year 1: 2,5m Year 2: 3.0m Year 3: 4.5m Year 4: 4.0m Year 5: 6.0m (Agreement to trade before year 6) Year 6: 25m Year 7: 30m Year 8: 35m Year 9: 40m Year 10: 50m
January 28, 201311 yr I don't see any comparison that would put Stanton in only the $3-5 million range in his first year. He might not be a $9-10 million player, but if he stays healthy I'd expect something in the $7-8 range to be within the realm of possibility. Cabrera got $7.4M in '07. With salary inflation over 7 years ('07 to '14) and with Stanton having outplayed Cabrera (slightly) through their first 2.5 years, I don't see why Stanton would only get what Cabrera got. The $7M to $8M number seems too low.
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