Jay Ram Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I wrote this as a response to Frisaro's recent piece on the matter. This trendy narrative is obnoxious. http://www.fishstripes.com/2015/1/1/7479171/the-truth-about-the-2012-marlins-blue-jays-trade-once-and-for-all Dog days of the off season so we might as well yell at each other about something. It's been a little quiet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaze2ki Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 At the end of the day, its Frisario's job to write fluff. The guys we had signed had a panic button on it, and the Marlins pushed it. The guys they traded really had nothing of trade value because we got a year of Reyes/Buehrle for a year under their market cost, and the Blue Jays essentially signed them for over market value. Josh Johnson was really the only thing we were trading and well that went terrible for the Jays. You also say that the Marlins could have gotten better prospects if they sent money along with those guys. THEY DID! Unless of course it wasn't enough for your satisfaction and you wanted them to be paying more of the Blue Jays payroll than the Marlins team itself. Which would have probably just resulted in more bashing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaze2ki Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Frisario really cant add both Nicolino and DeSclafani as part of the return. One of those guys is essential the trade off of the pick we lost for signing Reyes. So Frisarios "six degrees of seperation" are a little skewed, and not sure how he adds the Dodgers trade in that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It amazes me that Frisaro gets paid to write anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 :lol Joe Frisaro ✔ @JoeFrisaro the way the NL East offseason has shaped up #Marlins look to have the best SS/2B combo in division Hech/Gordon Joe Frisaro ✔ @JoeFrisaro can hear @PHill_bone already in Spring yelling #StopIt for all the plays Hech and Dee make #Marlins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 :lol Joe Frisaro ✔ @JoeFrisaro the way the NL East offseason has shaped up #Marlins look to have the best SS/2B combo in division Hech/Gordon Joe Frisaro ✔ @JoeFrisaro can hear @PHill_bone already in Spring yelling #StopIt for all the plays Hech and Dee make #Marlins Sure, if you ignore things like hitting and defense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 And that is kind of sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 He really hasnt come around offensively. He was still pretty awful last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm no so down on hech anymore tbh. He's come around offensively and defensive metrics aren't good enough for me to buy that he's that bad. Plus, its not like he doesn't have the athleticism to improve in the field. I think the next few seasons he will show he's better. Not good but improved over what we've seen. Wut. He did improve by 100 OPS last season from the previous, but his line was still terrible. It just says more about how embarrassingly awful his 2013 season was. His peripherals did not change all that much, which suggests that a lot of it is BABIP driven (though his 2013 line was low). His LD% rate increased a bit so he might be making slightly better contact now. So he's likely a better player than he was in 2013, but hasn't really "come around" yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Card Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm no so down on hech anymore tbh. He's come around offensively and defensive metrics aren't good enough for me to buy that he's that bad. Plus, its not like he doesn't have the athleticism to improve in the field. I think the next few seasons he will show he's better. Not good but improved over what we've seen. Wut. He did improve by 100 OPS last season from the previous, but his line was still terrible. It just says more about how embarrassingly awful his 2013 season was. His peripherals did not change all that much, which suggests that a lot of it is BABIP driven (though his 2013 line was low). His LD% rate increased a bit so he might be making slightly better contact now. So he's likely a better player than he was in 2013, but hasn't really "come around" yet. He went from -1.9 WAR to .6 WAR in his second full season thanks to his bat (BABIP was a little high). That's a big improvement (from shit to barely above replacement, yes). But I really don't think he is as bad defensively as the metrics suggest. He can also improve defensively by not screwing up routine plays. I think he breaks 1 WAR in 2015. I'm OK with that. I can agree with this. The big positive about Hech is his athleticism, we all see it, and we all know he's talented. Hopefully he continues to improve. Some guys just develop more slowly than others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bret Hart Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The result reveals to look good for us, but I hope it won't be happened again basically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The trade might've not been terrible, but Frisaro's evaluation of the trade definitely is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fish14 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 the truth lies in the middle of both articles. You are too strong in your take that the Toronto talent didn't do much to help us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dim Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think in retrospect the trade worked out. Josh Johnson busted out. Mark Buehrle is a very good pitcher but was a short term solution for a team that needed to really start thinking long term. Jose Reyes has had his fair share of injuries and is on the wrong side of 30 for a speedy slap swinging style hitter. John Buck was not a very good player at the time of the trade and still isn't, and you can find a Bonifacio style player any day on the waiver wire scraps. In the end it we traded Bonifacio and JJ at their near peak values (Bonfacio's peak value was after 2011, JJ after 2011), Buehrle and Reyes remain the only real "useful" players left for the Blue Jays and while Buehrle's deal seems to be fair given his production in the AL, Jose Reyes seems like he's going to be an overpay in the coming years. For the Marlins they ended up getting solid value. The trade return was hurt by the Marlins front office overvaluing two particular players: Adeiny Hechavarria and Jeff Mathis. Mathis was the piece that nearly held up the trade entirely, and at the time Hech was a near top 100 prospect even though all statistics indicated the hitting would never really materialize. Henderson Alvarez has become the real jewel of the trade. Put up ace caliber numbers this past season and made the All Star team at 24 years old. His ability to be at least a mid 3 ERA's kind of pitcher long term seems pretty good, and he's going into this upcoming season as our #1 or 2. When you do a trade you always want to get the best player/value in it. I don't know if the Marlins thought he would become the best guy in the deal when it was made, but in the end Alvarez is the best value in the deal, given his service time, age, stats, etc... I'll quickly glance over Escobar since he was traded for without any real intention of playing here, and thus became Dietrich, who is a decent player but needed proper development to have a chance of becoming a possible starting 2nd baseman. The Marlins seem to have mismanaged him following the Martinez incident, and he doesn't appear to be in the team's long term plans anymore. Still he's decent depth and should likely be on the Marlins bench as a utility hitter or possible replacement for poor play or injury by June. Jake Marisnick may have been the guy the Marlins were most excited to see in the trade. Five tool player with a cannon for an arm in the outfield and great closing speed, with in the gaps power and a solid base stealing record. After seeing him play in the majors for the Marlins and even his latter minor league stuff you could tell he was just too raw at the plate and needed a few more years in the minors and some good hitting coaches to get the right approach. Even now he's just 23 years old and has over 300 AB's in the majors, which is something most hitters that age can't say. His defense will always make him valuable for some team with good hitters already littered throughout their lineup, but the Marlins knew that building a winning team meant getting some better pitching at the deadline and possibly selling a little low on Marisnick and Moran (although it's possible to see it as trading before their value drops tremendously and teams realize their value doesn't equal their former pedigree). In the end Marisnick in part became Cosart/Wates/Hernandez, with Hernandez in part becoming Dee Gordon. In the grand scheme of things I will view Marisnick in terms of the trade value he brought, and in a series of trades he contribute at least in part towards the team eventually getting its starting 2nd baseman and #3 starting pitcher at the moment. While it's not exactly the big value and potential breakout the Marlins hoped when trading for Marisnick, it's good that he at least didn't bust and become nothing to us. Anthony Desclafani was a nice pitcher but doesn't have much of a future in a major league starting rotation. He'll likely transition back into a middle of the bullpen role given his previous experience closing at Florida and will probably be very good at it. At the time of the trade Desclafani seemed like a bit of a thrown in player given his one season in A ball and a previous closer, but he really morphed into a respectable pitching prospect. In the end Desclafani and Chad Wallach (who I liked but just a year ago was a 5th round draft pick) turned into a season of Mat Latos this year. Given Latos' previous numbers and age it seems like a small gamble with a potential (and imo likely) high reward if the injury bug stays away. Lastly is Justin Nicolino, who is a solid pitching prospect but also a very confusing one. Doesn't strike out guys, is still highly regarded, but doesn't walk people either and has learned not to give up runs. He's had a few starts here and there where he has god awful outings, but he's fairly consistent on a game to game basis and has gotten but thus far on his average stuff. Given the park the Marlins play at he should be a fine #5 starter candidate for the 2016 season. In the end of the Blue Jays got two aging starts in the backburner of their career and getting paid like stars. The Marlins got, in terms of immediate production, a #2 or 3 starter in Alvarez, a mildly below average starting SS in Hechavarria, and a backup catcher in Mathis, with guys like Marisnick and Desclafani putting in games and non nondescript games for the Marlins over the last few years. Inadvertently the trade also helped lead to us eventually getting Dee Gordon, Mat Latos, Jarred Cosart, and Derek Dietrich. Again, decent pieces but nothing that stands out as players who help get teams into the postseason. At the end of the day you look back at the trade and know that the Marlins came out on top, but it wasn't game changing more as it was a building towards the future style trade like it was said to be at the end (well, other than as a fire sale). The only real breakout star of the trade was Alvarez, but the trade helped us build towards a better team moving forward. It definitely sacrificed the present (aka 2012/2013/2014). I'm not sure if the team could've or wouldn't have made the playoffs if they didn't trade off all those pieces in 2012 such as Hanley, Infante, Sanchez, etc... But its obvious that the business model was flawed and for our organization wasn't sustainable. The current model is much better. If they spend some money, it's on guys with short term deals like Morse, Latos, hell even though it didn't work out Jones wasn't so bad since all these deals were only for one or two years. Trading for guys under team control like Gordon and Cosart are how you build sustainable winners. The model in 2012 was to win immediately and win big, but unfortunately it was set up to handicap the team into long term deals with Bell for 3 years, Buehrle for 4 and Reyes for 6. If the team didn't try to get out of those deals after the first year we very easily would've been stuck with them and with a mediocre team for big money for a prolonged period of time. Loria wouldn't have been happy, the front office wouldn't have been happy, the fans wouldn't have been happy, nobody would've been happy. The front office, including Beinfest before getting fired, mostly did the best they could do given the circumstances they've been given. It's incredibly hard to field a good team with the payroll restrictions currently given, and the one time the team was given free reign with the checkbook Jeffrey Loria exerted major influence in getting us to sign players. I'm not sure the front office targets Jose Reyes or Heath Bell if Loria didn't push for it so heavily. The trade with the Blue Jays is partly a symbol of the right business model. It's getting rid of inefficiencies that currently exist within the team and turning them into profitable assets. They got Alvarez at a low-ish value and he's blossomed into an All Star. Marisnick and Nicolino were great pieces to trade for at the time and both could still very easily blossom into stars themselves. The only real negative I can say in hindsight about the trade is not being able to get Noah Syndergaard or Travis d'Arnaud along with Alvarez/Marisnick/Nicolino and instead getting Mathis/Escobar/Hechavarria. Given the value of Josh Johnson/Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrle/Emilio Bonifacio at the time of the trade, I feel very confident in saying we should've been able to net Syndergaard or d'Arnaud along with Alvarez/Marisnick/Nicolino. The only reason we didn't get Syndergaard or d'Arnaud is frustratingly that Loria wouldn't take on enough (or much of any) salary, and thus the return on prospects was lower. Getting d'Arnaud in that trade wouldn't negated the need to sign Saltlamacchia and in retrospect would've saved Loria even more money, so it's even more frustrating. I know I've turned this into a novel and it's strayed away from the original point, but the point is the trade was a good one, and even if at the time it was viewed (and rightfully so) as a fire sale, in retrospect it was more of a return to proper team management given the confines the organization is run under. Loria is a big reason the team screwed up so badly in the 2012 season, and his stinginess again after the fact was a big reason this trade is good rather than great in my eyes. If the return wasn't Alvarez/Marisnick/Nicolino/Escobar/Mathis/Hechavarria but rather d'Arnaud/Alvarez/Marisnick/Nicolino, I'd feel a hell of a lot better, and given the fact d'Arnaud was traded with Syndgaard for basically R.A Dickey, I don't see why Josh Johnson's value back in 2012 alone couldn't have netted us one of the two at the very least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dim Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Apologies for that. Started off as a simple post and somehow went on many different tangents. Basically TL;DR Marlins good; Blue Jays bad; but could've been better without Loria holding team back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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