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A Surprising Prediction...


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Will Leitch wrote a column with his NL (and AL) East predictions and gave what I thought was a surprisingly different take on the Marlins and on why we won't be successful this year. Take a look and discuss. Here's the link to the entire article and I copied the Marlins portion below...

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/115519982/mlb-season-preview-nl-al-east-divisions

 

Miami Marlins

Predicted record: 79-83

 

If every MLB player were certain to play 162 games at their peak capacity every season, and every pitcher made every start they were supposed to -- and my, how much simpler that world would be -- the Marlins might be a playoff team this season. The top-end talent is overwhelming, from $325 million man Giancarlo Stanton to Christian Yelich to "yay, he's coming back" Jose Fernandez. If the Marlins can stay healthy and all their talent plays up to its capabilities all season, they could be another one of those Marlins teams who, when you look up in early September, seem like the scariest young team in the sport.

 

But the world's an unpredictable place. On one hand, Miami looks like a team that could be above average at every Major League position. On the other hand, the backup plans for all these positions are nil: In many ways, the Marlins look like a studio lot team, one with sets that look perfect from the outside, but collapse and fall over if you blow on them a little bit. One of the key aspects to baseball these days is flexibility: You want to make sure that you have the resources and dexterity to transform your team from April to September, if you have to. (It's one of the reasons people are so excited about Boston and the Cubs right now.) But the Marlins don't have that. They're not going to go out and get better at the Deadline. They don't have veteran guys or handy fill-in prospects ready to hop in if some of the young guys falter or are injured. As always, the Marlins have who they have, and that's what they're gonna be playing with.

 

It makes for a small margin of error, and it goes against the way roster construction works now. Put it this way: If the Marlins are in the Wild Card race in late July, they better have a lead, and a big one. Because the teams chasing them are going to go out and get help, while the Marlins will have no choice but to stay put. Here's guessing by staying put, they'll have no choice but to fall behind.

 

 

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I don't altogether agree with him but I know where he's coming from. While we might not have the trade pieces I do think we have more depth than he's giving us credit for. Prado for example can play all around the diamond, Dietrich can come up at a moments notice, Ichiro can get it done if one of the main three goes down. I think in all this guy just does what he claims the Marlins have built, and that's looking at the surface without scratching any deeper

 

 

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I think we have way more depth than he's giving us credit for... I don't get the idea that we can't do anything at the deadline, that makes zero sense to me. And even with what he's predicting I don't see how he can have us under .500 and just two wins better than 2014. It's like he's factoring in a debilitating major injury into the record and you kinda can't do that in preseason predictions, can you? Seems contrived.

 

 

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The crap the guy said about us could also be said for the Mets, yet they'll be winning 86 games according to him.

 

The Marlins will probably spend to acquire talent at the deadline if they need it. He doesn't seem to understand how Jeffrey Loria operates.

 

 

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I think he means that we're not going to get better at the deadline because the farm system sucks right now. The team we have right now is mostly the team we're going to have this year and the team we're going to have for at least a couple of years. It's mostly a young team under club control. Some of the young pieces acquired were acquired for assets that has left our minor league system dry for the time being. Compared to other teams, we don't have as much to offer via trade. If we're in contention, I could see a trade for a reliever or a veteran, innings eating SP on the final year of his contract. Nothing major because we don't have the assets to acquire anything major.

 

 

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