Amazes me how many people are questioning the bunt. Absolutely the right thing to do. In a tie game you move the runner to third and one out. The problem is major league ball players that can't bunt. Realmuto couldn't do it, and walked, and Prado laid down a bad bunt. Fundamental baseball. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Which has been the problem on this road trip, bad fundamentals.

 

 

Of more runs being scored. Yes, because the  "probability" of scoring more than 1 run lowers as ours go up. I get it. But its all relative. The chances of Martin Prado getting a hit there is 30%. That's without factoring in slumps, matchups, previous at bats, speed of runners, etc. The guy up to bat is top 5 in the NL in GIDP. We have a higher chance of driving 2 runs in with runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out, than Prado up and runners on 1st and 2nd 0 out due to the fact that a double play can occur, and there's a 70% chance he does not get a hit which leaves you in the same base situation with 1 out. We can argue all we want about if the bunt was stupid or not, but to blame this on Mattingly who made a decision based upon OUR team (notoriously bad with RISP) and not say shit about how Prado can't get a bunt down the 3rd baseline is just ridiculous. If he gets that bunt down our chance of scoring AT LEAST 1 run goes up as it doesn't take a hit to score him (30%) and a guy with a higher OPS raises the chance of him scoring more than 1. You can do the mathematical equation to figure out WAR, but this is simple baseball gone terribly wrong. Including pitch calling from JT.

 

Still disagree. First Prado isn't a good bunter in recent history and has only been called on to do it 3 times since 2013 (with one success). He hasn't bunted much since Atlanta. In that situation there's still only a 13% chance that he hits into a double play in that situation, despite the fact that he's good at putting the ball in play.

 

Small sample size, but he also has good career numbers vs. Robles (2 for 3 with a double). He's also hit well with RISP this season.

 

 

Still disagree. First Prado isn't a good bunter in recent history and has only been called on to do it 3 times since 2013 (with one success). He hasn't bunted much since Atlanta. In that situation there's still only a 13% chance that he hits into a double play in that situation, despite the fact that he's good at putting the ball in play.

 

Small sample size, but he also has good career numbers vs. Robles (2 for 3 with a double). He's also hit well with RISP this season.

 

But he also in a mini slump now.

 

 

Wait, you would rather Realmuto have bunted than walked? His walk was a success in spite of Mattingly's failure. 

 

Yeah I'll take first and second 1 out over man on 3rd 2 outs every time.

 

 

Yeah I'll take first and second 1 out over man on 3rd 2 outs every time.

There we're no outs. He wouldn't have been bunting with one out. The idea was to get Ichiro to third with one out. Fly ball and you have the lead. Realmuto missed two bunts and then was obviously swinging away with 2 strikes. He walked. No damage done. Even more reason to bunt with Prado up there and double play possibility.

 

Again, fundamental baseball. Teams do it to the Marlins all the time.

 

 

Don't be. It was a good move.

 

No, it actually was not.  Anyone who isn't a complete homer can see that even if the Marlins can sneak into the WC spot, the odds of them doing anything are quite infinitesimal. They have decent defense but the starting pitching is below average. Not any sort of recipe for post-season success.  

 

With some rare exceptions, big league reliever success is ephemeral.  Case in point:. Rodney was an all star in 2014, sucked in 2015, and should be an all star again in 2016.  He could be amazing for the rest of the year. Or the wheels come off  his 39-year old body. It's anyone's guess.

 

Thats why it's a sucker bet to throw a big contract at a closer.  Similarly, it's a sucker bet to trade a stud minor league starting pitcher for a closer.  Especially when you already HAVE a closer and aren't even going to use the closer as a closer.

 

 

This is what happens when you try and fix what isn't broken and acquire a guy due for serious regression. What's the pen era since the Rodney acquisition now? Everyone has gone full storen 

Bound to happen when they are overused cause your rotation fucking sucks. Tbh.

 

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If we sneak into the wild card game and can have Jose pitch that one we can win it. After that it'd be tough to win a series but with the postseason being such a crap shoot we can always get hot and surprise.

 

 

Bullpen blew it. That's why we lost. Simple.

 

 

Man Frisaro is such a douchebag. Basically blaming it on fatigue. Yeah so the 6-0 lead and 17 hits were all fatigue. Prado bunting it right to Loney was fatigue. Stanton swinging at a 55 foot pitch was fatigue. Barraclough pitching like shit was fatigue. 

 

Frisaro is probably fatigued from sucking the organization's dick.

 

 

No, it actually was not.  Anyone who isn't a complete homer can see that even if the Marlins can sneak into the WC spot, the odds of them doing anything are quite infinitesimal. They have decent defense but the starting pitching is below average. Not any sort of recipe for post-season success.  With some rare exceptions, big league reliever success is ephemeral.  Case in point:. Rodney was an all star in 2014, sucked in 2015, and should be an all star again in 2016.  He could be amazing for the rest of the year. Or the wheels come off  his 39-year old body. It's anyone's guess.

 

Thats why it's a sucker bet to throw a big contract at a closer.  Similarly, it's a sucker bet to trade a stud minor league starting pitcher for a closer.  Especially when you already HAVE a closer and aren't even going to use the closer as a closer.

Rodney was a good move. Who is even talking about a championship? He's under control through next year. He had an off year in 2015. So what? Paddack is a prospect, unproven. Stud? Really? Get back to me when he's in the majors. "Decent defense"? Top 4 in the majors is "decent"? C'mon. You may not want to be a homer but don't be a hater in the process.

 

 

If we sneak into the wild card game and can have Jose pitch that one we can win it. After that it'd be tough to win a series but with the postseason being such a crap shoot we can always get hot and surprise.

This.

 

 

Bullpen blew it. That's why we lost. Simple.

Well, there was some fundamental issues as well.

 

 

Rodney was a good move. Who is even talking about a championship? He's under control through next year. He had an off year in 2015. So what? Paddack is a prospect, unproven. Stud? Really? Get back to me when he's in the majors. "Decent defense"? Top 4 in the majors is "decent"? C'mon. You may not want to be a homer but don't be a hater in the process.

 

Top 4?  Based on what... Fielding pct or errors?  That's only one measure of the effectiveness of a defense.  The Marlins rank 19th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency, another measure (see below). A lack of errors does not a great defense make. 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1905975

 

Or there's UZR/150. By this measure, the Marlins rank 11th out of 30. Barely out of the top third. Or, in other words, decent. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d

 

i hope I'm wrong about Paddack, and hope he doesn't turn into a great MLB pitcher.  But that's really irrelevant to this analysis.  The unvarnished truth is that enough MLB scouting departments value Paddack's potential upside that we could've gotten better value for him in a trade than a 39-yr old reliever.  Even if you are hell-bent on trading him away, we had bigger fish to fry (pun intended)  

 

 

Top 4?  Based on what... Fielding pct or errors?  That's only one measure of the effectiveness of a defense.  The Marlins rank 19th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency, another measure (see below). A lack of errors does not a great defense make. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1905975

 

Or there's UZR/150. By this measure, the Marlins rank 11th out of 30. Barely out of the top third. Or, in other words, decent. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d

 

i hope I'm wrong about Paddack, and hope he doesn't turn into a great MLB pitcher.  But that's really irrelevant to this analysis.  The unvarnished truth is that enough MLB scouting departments value Paddack's potential upside that we could've gotten better value for him in a trade than a 39-yr old reliever.  Even if you are hell-bent on trading him away, we had bigger fish to fry (pun intended)  

It was fielding percentage. Fewest errors, top 3. Funny, errors are usually how you measure the effectiveness of a defense but ok. As for what's out there, there isn't too much out there to begin with. Rodney is a good pickup. He'll do fine.