Well, here's my attendance figures thread for this year.  This first update is through yesterday's game - game # 18 on 4/30.

This year, I want attendance to crater and stop supporting this cheap owner, and hopefully he'll sell - I know there will continue to be the argument of "people don't come so I can't spend" but this guy needs to get that you need to invest first, start winning, and then people will come, and you'll make it up on the back end.

After an initial increase, it looks like it's starting to decrease (though the figures of particular games (i.e. game #__) are certainly influenced by the opponent......for example, a Mets crowd in game 5 last year will obviously be much larger than an Royals crowd in game 5 this year.

The way I'm keeping track right now is to "zero" out all games past the current update - in that I'm going to keep figures past the update identical to last year, which gives a decent live figure of this year vs. last year.

The Orange line represents this year's attendance, gray is last year, and blue is 2022, with a green trend line for this year:

And here is the overall look for now:

Edited September 27, 20242 yr by rmc523

52 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Well, here's my attendance figures thread for this year.  This first update is through yesterday's game - game # 18 on 4/30.

This year, I want attendance to crater and stop supporting this cheap owner, and hopefully he'll sell - I know there will continue to be the argument of "people don't come so I can't spend" but this guy needs to get that you need to invest first, start winning, and then people will come, and you'll make it up on the back end.

After an initial increase, it looks like it's starting to decrease (though the figures of particular games (i.e. game #__) are certainly influenced by the opponent......for example, a Mets crowd in game 5 last year will obviously be much larger than an Royals crowd in game 5 this year.

The way I'm keeping track right now is to "zero" out all games past the current update - in that I'm going to keep figures past the update identical to last year, which gives a decent live figure of this year vs. last year.

The Orange line represents this year's attendance, gray is last year, and blue is 2022, with a green trend line for this year:

And here is the overall look for now:

That will be incredibly disappointing if attendance doesn't crater into the abyss with how Sherman treated the fans after last year. I appreciate the time you spent to build this model Sir.

Thanks for tracking this!

3 hours ago, Admin said:

Thanks for tracking this!

Of course - if there's any particular way y'all would rather see it and/or other info, I can try to get it.

Here's through 32 games....

 

This is a direct 32 games this year vs. 32 last year:

 

This data is through 32 this year and if everything after (33-81) was identical to last year:

 

A figure comparing the last 3 years (this uses the "identical to last year from this point forward" data):

 

And here's this year's trend - it's trending flat overall with Opening Day removed (it skews the trend line too much since Opening Day is always a pretty full crowd)

 

 

Obviously opponent can heavily skew data from one year to the next at a given point in the schedule (i.e. playing the Mets on a weekend for games 2-4 this year will draw a much bigger crowd than the A's in the middle of the week for games 2-4 last year), but it's still an interesting look at the numbers.

Edited June 3, 20242 yr by rmc523

3 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Here's through 32 games....

 

This is a direct 32 games this year vs. 32 last year:

 

This data is through 32 this year and if everything after (33-81) was identical to last year:

 

A figure comparing the last 3 years:

 

And here's this year's trend - it's trending flat overall with Opening Day removed (it skews the trend line too much since Opening Day is always a pretty full crowd)

 

 

so attendance is actually up lol

Bruce must be absolutely over the moon that he can field a complete shit team and still see those gains (albeit minimal).  I have a feeling as the season wears on and the Marlins get worse and worse and are crazy far out of it that those numbers will plummet though versus last year which held a bit more steady due to the playoff run. 

But still....freaking wild to see an actual uptick in attendance with this year's shit show of a team. 

Thanks for the info mate! I always look forward to this stuff.

13 hours ago, hovertical said:

 

so attendance is actually up lol

Bruce must be absolutely over the moon that he can field a complete shit team and still see those gains (albeit minimal).  I have a feeling as the season wears on and the Marlins get worse and worse and are crazy far out of it that those numbers will plummet though versus last year which held a bit more steady due to the playoff run. 

But still....freaking wild to see an actual uptick in attendance with this year's shit show of a team. 

Thanks for the info mate! I always look forward to this stuff.

Inexplicably, yes, attendance is up....BUT, as I pointed out, opponent and days of the week can have a big affect on the numbers in a smaller sample size.....I'd have to go back and pull different figures to see how close days of the week are.

Notice the two circled (yellow) peaks this year vs. '22 and '23 - the left was a weekend Mets series and the right one was a weekend Rangers series (I was surprised at how high the Rangers went) this year, vs. a weekday Washington/Padres series and weekend series vs. Oakland and KC last year.  I'd imagine that'll balance out with a "lesser" series later in the season......but we'll see.....although looking at the schedule, really the only smaller/less popular teams we have left are TB, Cleveland, and CIN....maybe CWS.  Everyone else are good or bigger teams (LAD, BOS, NYM, etc).

 

It'll definitely be interesting to see where it goes from here - I'm with you that I think as the season goes on, those numbers will start trending down, especially as other sports restart with us well out of it..........but some of that loss could be offset by better/more popular opponents later in the season.

As always, if there's any more detailed info y'all want to see, let me know.

2 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Inexplicably, yes, attendance is up....BUT, as I pointed out, opponent and days of the week can have a big affect on the numbers in a smaller sample size.....I'd have to go back and pull different figures to see how close days of the week are.

Notice the two circled (yellow) peaks this year vs. '22 and '23 - the left was a weekend Mets series and the right one was a weekend Rangers series (I was surprised at how high the Rangers went) this year, vs. a weekday Washington/Padres series and weekend series vs. Oakland and KC last year.  I'd imagine that'll balance out with a "lesser" series later in the season......but we'll see.....although looking at the schedule, really the only smaller/less popular teams we have left are TB, Cleveland, and CIN....maybe CWS.  Everyone else are good or bigger teams (LAD, BOS, NYM, etc).

 

It'll definitely be interesting to see where it goes from here - I'm with you that I think as the season goes on, those numbers will start trending down, especially as other sports restart with us well out of it..........but some of that loss could be offset by better/more popular opponents later in the season.

Yeah I assumed some of it also had to do with bigger draws from opposing fanbases - probably also a little bit due to early last season it wasn't like fans were expecting to see a playoff team so word and interest hadn't really gotten around yet while this year probably a lot of those same casual late season "fans" from last year didn't even realize how shit the team was before going to a game lol.

1 hour ago, hovertical said:

Yeah I assumed some of it also had to do with bigger draws from opposing fanbases - probably also a little bit due to early last season it wasn't like fans were expecting to see a playoff team so word and interest hadn't really gotten around yet while this year probably a lot of those same casual late season "fans" from last year didn't even realize how shit the team was before going to a game lol.

Even at the Panthers-Rangers series, there was a ton of Rangers fans at that game.

We, as Marlins fans, after 30+ years are still waiting for this philosophy by the COO of the Panthers.  It is a novel idea, isn't it.  There are so many baseball fans here, kids playing at all levels, even counting the large number of young girls in softball leagues, that to think the fan base is not there for baseball, yet somehow it works for friggin ICE HOCKEY.  

“We always knew if we built it, they would come,” Caldwell said. “And it’s got to be consistent performance. It can’t just be one or two good years here and there. These last four years in particular and the deep runs the last two years, you just feel it all building.”

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nhl/florida-panthers/article288927936.html#storylink=cpy

 

I mean....there's a baseball movie with the famous tag line "if you build it they will come".....yet we never even try (or when we have, it's for 1/2 a season under the previous group).

Edited June 4, 20242 yr by rmc523

Good afternoon everyone! I have been a marlins fan since their inception. I was even making the forty five minute drive to old joe robbie on a regular basis to watch the florida marlins (that stadium’s attendance appeared even more dismal because of its sixty four thousand capacity). When they moved to lil havana i went ahead n purchased season tix… i did this for five consecutive years…. Then i woke up n said “enuff”… i will not continue to spend lots of money going to games n just seeing a sea of empty blue seats… it became depressing. The lack of fan support just blows my mind. Even though we got a brand spankin new stadium in the center of miami! It’s sad. Sometimes i look at box scores just to see n confirm how pathetic we are… seven thousand is about average for a weekday game. On a good day maybe twelve k - perhaps fourteen thou (probably twenty to up to forty percent there to watch our visiting rivals). I commend what u r doing w ur research n will continue to check in look at ur statistical journey. Thank u

5 hours ago, Rei said:

Good afternoon everyone! I have been a marlins fan since their inception. I was even making the forty five minute drive to old joe robbie on a regular basis to watch the florida marlins (that stadium’s attendance appeared even more dismal because of its sixty four thousand capacity). When they moved to lil havana i went ahead n purchased season tix… i did this for five consecutive years…. Then i woke up n said “enuff”… i will not continue to spend lots of money going to games n just seeing a sea of empty blue seats… it became depressing. The lack of fan support just blows my mind. Even though we got a brand spankin new stadium in the center of miami! It’s sad. Sometimes i look at box scores just to see n confirm how pathetic we are… seven thousand is about average for a weekday game. On a good day maybe twelve k - perhaps fourteen thou (probably twenty to up to forty percent there to watch our visiting rivals). I commend what u r doing w ur research n will continue to check in look at ur statistical journey. Thank u

Hi Rei,

Welcome to the forums here. I haven’t been to a game since 2017.. well mainly because I don’t live in Miami anymore. But yeah I get what you’re saying. It’s pathetic what the attendance has been over the years and especially lately, but well I don’t see it changing anytime soon. As we’ve all previously discussed on this website in the past.. it really seems like the only long term solution for getting people to the stadium is winning consistently for several years in a row and throw in a World Series appearance. Even that isn’t guaranteed. Maybe if the Marlins signed 2-3 top tier free agents AND consistently won games then maybe.. but still not guaranteed either.

It’s been the same story for so long.. just tired of it by now as well. 😂

12 hours ago, Rei said:

Good afternoon everyone! I have been a marlins fan since their inception. I was even making the forty five minute drive to old joe robbie on a regular basis to watch the florida marlins (that stadium’s attendance appeared even more dismal because of its sixty four thousand capacity). When they moved to lil havana i went ahead n purchased season tix… i did this for five consecutive years…. Then i woke up n said “enuff”… i will not continue to spend lots of money going to games n just seeing a sea of empty blue seats… it became depressing. The lack of fan support just blows my mind. Even though we got a brand spankin new stadium in the center of miami! It’s sad. Sometimes i look at box scores just to see n confirm how pathetic we are… seven thousand is about average for a weekday game. On a good day maybe twelve k - perhaps fourteen thou (probably twenty to up to forty percent there to watch our visiting rivals). I commend what u r doing w ur research n will continue to check in look at ur statistical journey. Thank u

Welcome @Rei!  Join the fun!

I actually recently updated my numbers but didn't have time to post them.

 

I'm split on your comment of "lack of fan support blows my mind"......sure there was a new park to go to, but beyond that, after year 0.5 of the new park, they blew it up.....what has there been for fans to go support?  Utter garbage and out of it in May most years....why should people support that?  Attendance was up last year with a playoff run, and all they have to do is look across town at the Panthers to see that people show up in droves when the team is good and wins.......and they follow that up by doing literally nothing and are on a path to blowing it all up again.   Why should people go?

 

That said, somehow, attendance this year has been remarkably flat vs. last year (which would mean a healthy increase over the last few years)......BUT, they had a lot of higher attendance games later in the year last year, since they had the playoff push.....I see those games being far lower this year.....but I've been surprised so far.  Meanwhile, Bruce sees that he can do nothing and people still come, so it's not hopeful for them actually trying to improve things.  Sadly, it's getting me to not care at all about the team.

On 7/1/2024 at 1:41 AM, SirFishFan said:

Hi Rei,

Welcome to the forums here. I haven’t been to a game since 2017.. well mainly because I don’t live in Miami anymore. But yeah I get what you’re saying. It’s pathetic what the attendance has been over the years and especially lately, but well I don’t see it changing anytime soon. As we’ve all previously discussed on this website in the past.. it really seems like the only long term solution for getting people to the stadium is winning consistently for several years in a row and throw in a World Series appearance. Even that isn’t guaranteed. Maybe if the Marlins signed 2-3 top tier free agents AND consistently won games then maybe.. but still not guaranteed either.

It’s been the same story for so long.. just tired of it by now as well. 😂

Hello sir fish. Nice to b here 👊

The notion of having some premier players may draw some folks to the stadium - so i have to agree w that tactic. But even then, that will not b enuff to even remotely get the plain jane 20k that other mlb teams get on a tuesday nite home game… we draw (if planets line up properly) twenty g’s w d yankees, red sox, dodgers… maybe mets fri/sat evening games. Miami is just a different kinda city… i say that in a weird n funny manner (sorta proud, being a miamian for forty two years), but also in a very sad n shameful one - baseball wise.

On 7/1/2024 at 8:41 AM, rmc523 said:

Welcome @Rei!  Join the fun!

I actually recently updated my numbers but didn't have time to post them.

 

I'm split on your comment of "lack of fan support blows my mind"......sure there was a new park to go to, but beyond that, after year 0.5 of the new park, they blew it up.....what has there been for fans to go support?  Utter garbage and out of it in May most years....why should people support that?  Attendance was up last year with a playoff run, and all they have to do is look across town at the Panthers to see that people show up in droves when the team is good and wins.......and they follow that up by doing literally nothing and are on a path to blowing it all up again.   Why should people go?

 

That said, somehow, attendance this year has been remarkably flat vs. last year (which would mean a healthy increase over the last few years)......BUT, they had a lot of higher attendance games later in the year last year, since they had the playoff push.....I see those games being far lower this year.....but I've been surprised so far.  Meanwhile, Bruce sees that he can do nothing and people still come, so it's not hopeful for them actually trying to improve things.  Sadly, it's getting me to not care at all about the team.

Thank u for having me rmc 🤙👊👍

this is a heavy topic for me (marlins’ crappy attendance). Ok, so how much time do u have? 😉

 

there r lots of teams that play below five hundred ball, on a regular basis, year after year, n get tons more fans at their games than we do. Lots of teams. U’d think miami, being a gateway to d americas would b a hotbed for baseball maniacal support - it isn’t. Far from it. Why? Bc our marlins suck? Blasphemy! (Though this year i’ve noticed that we’re like the third worst team to lace up their spikes) no, it’s not bc of who we have playing the field. In my opinion, n that’s all we’re doing here, chatting n expressing ourselves, it’s bc of a lack of shared history. I honestly feel that we can get to twenty thousand for a wednesday nite game (albeit thirty years from now). The rockies have hit impressive, beautiful attendance numbers throughout their history (we came in together, mind u), but that’s denver, which is also a major city, but different than miami. I don’t know man… maybe miami is like a turnstile for ppl… a transcient sorta place where new ppl come in but don’t stay… where lotsa ppl live but don’t support baseball 

14 minutes ago, Rei said:

Thank u for having me rmc 🤙👊👍

this is a heavy topic for me (marlins’ crappy attendance). Ok, so how much time do u have? 😉

 

there r lots of teams that play below five hundred ball, on a regular basis, year after year, n get tons more fans at their games than we do. Lots of teams. U’d think miami, being a gateway to d americas would b a hotbed for baseball maniacal support - it isn’t. Far from it. Why? Bc our marlins suck? Blasphemy! (Though this year i’ve noticed that we’re like the third worst team to lace up their spikes) no, it’s not bc of who we have playing the field. In my opinion, n that’s all we’re doing here, chatting n expressing ourselves, it’s bc of a lack of shared history. I honestly feel that we can get to twenty thousand for a wednesday nite game (albeit thirty years from now). The rockies have hit impressive, beautiful attendance numbers throughout their history (we came in together, mind u), but that’s denver, which is also a major city, but different than miami. I don’t know man… maybe miami is like a turnstile for ppl… a transcient sorta place where new ppl come in but don’t stay… where lotsa ppl live but don’t support baseball 

I think it's a perfect storm of multiple factors:

-bad team

-owners that don't fulfill promises

-owners that blow up the team and/or do nothing after any iota of success

-transient city

-region where most people are from somewhere else, and have allegiance to other teams

 

IMO, the bad team aspect could have been overcome if ownership actually showed devotion to winning, but we've had 3 1/2 - 5 truly competitive years in 30+ years of existence.  That's not a recipe for success.

3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

I think it's a perfect storm of multiple factors:

-bad team

-owners that don't fulfill promises

-owners that blow up the team and/or do nothing after any iota of success

-transient city

-region where most people are from somewhere else, and have allegiance to other teams

 

IMO, the bad team aspect could have been overcome if ownership actually showed devotion to winning, but we've had 3 1/2 - 5 truly competitive years in 30+ years of existence.  That's not a recipe for success.

Mannnn…. U made some really solid points there. Real good. The one about owners dismantling world series winning mechanisms (2x)… that one is a curious case… one of those what ifs? 
u pretty much debunked everything i wrote previously w that possibility 🫠

Attendance tanking lately and avg around 2k less than last year and falling fast 

I have some updated figures that I haven't had a chance to upload yet.

Ok, here's the latest update......... through 49 games....

 

This is a direct 49 games this year vs. 49 the last two years.....somehow we have a 1.5% increase this year so far:

 

I think that increase will disappear around the 60-62 game mark, which had crazy high totals last year (see gray line below).

 

 

This data is through 49 this year and if all games after (50-81) were identical to last year:

 

A figure comparing the last 3 years (this uses the "identical to last year from this point forward" data):

 

And here's this year's trend - it's trending flat overall with Opening Day removed (it skews the trend line too much since Opening Day is always a pretty full crowd)

 

As mentioned previously - obviously opponent can heavily skew data from one year to the next at a given point in the schedule (i.e. playing the Mets on a weekend for games 2-4 this year will draw a much bigger crowd than the A's in the middle of the week for games 2-4 last year), but it's still an interesting look at the numbers.

 

Also, the Mets are the next series up, those games always draw healthy crowds.

Edited July 18, 20242 yr by rmc523

On 7/11/2024 at 9:24 AM, pollythewog said:

Attendance tanking lately and avg around 2k less than last year and falling fast 

 

The data actually shows we're up slightly from last year though this point.

 

Granted, this is based on reported attendance.....who knows if they're still reporting people that actually show up.  I have zero visual context/eye test data since I haven't been watching at all this year.

Alright Folks, Here are the final attendance stats for 2024:

Attendance was down 75,355 overall, or 930 per game - a 6.48% decrease.

 

Getting into trends - the inexplicable upward trend over last year lasted far longer than I thought (through like 60-something games), but as I've previously pointed out, when you play opponent throughout the year vs. previous years can have a big affect on a micro view of the season.

That said, attendance did trend upward from beginning of the year, even accounting for Opening Day, BUT the peaks and valleys were more extreme than last year when we were in the hunt, and was helped out by a few more popular opponents (PHI, LAD, and ATL) to close out the home schedule.

 

 

I don't have time to add the teams to the game# legend, so I'll give you the full game breakout below if you want to compare a game on the chart to the actual attenance figure:

 

 

 

Hopefully someone appreciates these lol.

I'm glad to see attendance down with cheapo owner, but we still managed to break 1M attendance.

 

There seems to be a hangover from previous seasons, so it'll be interesting to see how next year goes - does attendance drop after this year, or do we actually make moves to be competitive and people come out.