Nny

PED being banned is kind of stupid and I hold no ill will towards him. So much "cheating" happens in baseball, and so much of that is the whole unspoken rules and all that shit. I didn't like the extension (you don't give slap hitters coming off career years multi years), but I'm not goign to hodl that against him. He's hit the ball int he air a LOT this year, so wonder if that has anything to do with it. Trying to be more than he was.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/03/out-of-options-2016.html Is all I know of

And for everyone call for Morris to be sent down, he's out of options. We'd have to DFA him, where we'd probably lose him. Considering how he's done so far and the loss of velocity, that's still not a bad idea...

I'm not privy to changes or adjustments or anything, but Brice has always been a sleeper prospect since he was drafted and he's doing great this year. 3 zero walk games in 4 starts so far this year. He had one all of last year. Still early and who knows what happens but he could be in the start of a break out year and holy god do we need that to happen

I also loved this bit about Andrew Friedman "consistently preaching the value of depth, refusing to acknowledge public panic, emphasizing the long-term sustainability of the organization while still competing in the present" The Marlins have been the complete antithesis to every single one of those. :high5

Going by history, they'll trade him prior to next season. Cabs, D-Train, Hanley, Beckett, and Lee were all traded with two years remaining of club control/contract. JJ is only guy I can think of they traded with only one year left, and that was a special case with the new stadium. However, I don't think they trade him until after next year. The next two years are this core's competition window. They're still cheap with holes that are pretty easy to fill (if they were willing to spend resources). As we can see with how much trading away Lee and Cabs hurt us during those competition windows, I'm hoping they learn from those mistakes. 2018 is not just the last season of Jose, but also Ramos, Capps, and Hech (they did at least re-up Dee). I think they're banking on Chen opting out prior to considering he'd only make $10m that year, and Stanton's contract balloons. We're currently looking at a $120m payroll that year, if they make no changes. Prior to 2018 is when the firesale "rebuild" is, so it makes the most sense to wait until then. It's nice rooting for a team where the fan discussion is when best it'll be to trade away your star player.

It's also worth pointing out that, while his traditional fielding ability is good, his pitch framing is terrible. He was 4th worst last year, currently 5th worst this year. I do still think he'll be fine. Good enough production from a C, but just too many holes to be more than averageish.

To give you an idea how bad Realmuto has been so far: He's third in baseball in GB%. Which isn't bad if you hit the ball hard. The players in front of him (Villar and Freeze) have hit a ball softly <7% of the time. Realmuto has 35% of the time, 4th worst in the majors. He has hit a grand total of 11 balls into the outfield. He's young and I still believe in him but damn

:rain

I don't care about no hitters anymore now that I can't get free pizza Fucking papa johns.

Team has 5th highest batting average and OBP in all of baseball with RISP coming into the game

Out of the 125 qualified SP since 2013, Cosart ranks 3rd worst in throwing a first pitch strike and 20th worst in being in the strike zone period. Which isn't bad if you guys swings and misses...except he has the 7th lowest swinging strike % and literally the lowest swing % of balls outside the zone Literally the only thing keeping him from being the worst SP in the majors is he gets a ton of ground balls. But he's still in the bottom 15% of SP past few seasons going by xFIP (with fellow teammate, Tom Koehler). Now that's a playoff rotation.

I'm more concerned about Morris than Breslow at this point. We're talking a large drop in velocity. I'm "hoping" he's injured because at least then maybe he can bounce back once he's healthy

Emphasizing your last point Starters ERA: 5.36 FIP: 2.70 xFIP: 3.44. They are 10th in the majors in fWAR. Koehler and Cosart are bad but Jose's, Chen's, and Conley's peripheral stats are fantastic so far. Relivers ERA: 3.38 FIP: 4.53 xFIP: 5.18. 26th in the majors in fWAR. Brewslow is the only one with a xFIP under 4, and he's at 3.98 lolol So yeah, from a peripheral standpoint, the starters have been above average and the relievers have been well below. The results have shown the opposite, but that's doubtful to continue

Hendo could not pitch at all ever again and that still would have been money better spent than spending that same amount on these bullpen arms.

Naw, baseball has a huge history with domestic violence. Shit, Miggy was arrested not long after we traded him for it. And definitely not just with the Hispanic players. It's just that in years past, it would be a little blurb (if that) in the news with no action by the league or team. More or less, no one cared if you hit your wife as long as you were good enough to be on a roster. Absolute tons of stories past couple decades of a player being arrested for domestic abuse and starting the next day Thankfully it's changed because of what happened in the NFL, specifically with people seeing the Ray Rice video and being able to actually have an image in their head of what it means.

Naverson's career FIP against lefties is 3.72, which is not good for a LOOGY. You'd want at most 3.00 (Dunn is at 3.09). Also, literally 90% of Narveson's innings were from 2011 or earlier. He spent the past four years in AAA or Nippon where he put up a combined 4.73 ERA. His (bad) major league stats are more or less irrelevant at this point.

I think the offense is fine in the sense that I think the starting players are fine, outside of Bour. The bad offensive players last year were Hech, Ozuna, and Realmuto. Two of them are good defensive players at positions where below average offense is normal and are average at worst players, and the other is a young player you're in a position to live or die with him. Bour is the only below average player on this squad and the only place where you can actually upgrade a position without a superstar, but he's at least not a Bonifacio. The bench is another matter, with two to four blackholes in Ichiro, Mathis, Johnson, and Rojas. The bigger problem, as it always is with this team, is lack of depth rather than with the starters. edit: and I think this is far from a playoff caliber team, I'm not arguing that. I just don't think the problem is with our starting line up. The problem is basically everything else

I think everyone's point is that they shouldn't be. Unknown's are not taken into considering for ZiPS, which an increase/decrease in velocity during the offseason is. That goes for non-numerical projections as well. Once it's known, there are ways to project how the increase/decrease in velocity has an effect on results, yes.

To be fair, that's a huge difference. About 40 runs if you take 300 of Ichiro's PA and give them to Stanton. That moves us from 2nd to last to 10th in the NL last year, so a bit below average I also dislike solely the talk of "offense" because defense matters too and last year they were one of the best defensive squads in baseball and that should continue again this year. The Royals have been a good squad because they've paid great defense with average offense. The difference is, the Royals have had a pitching staff.

None of them really have lights out potential but we should at least get some solid guys out of the group. Though I wouldn't be all too hyped for Oganda, but Lazo looks pretty good too once he comes off the DL. Ege+Lazo would be a huge improvement of our current lefty situation. Flores and Pineyro both could becomes solid swing-men, as well.

Though there are cases like how completely randomly made decisions would net better result than the FO's projections

:<

What article did I write bashing a Marlins player? (What article did I write, period?)

Projection systems are obviously not perfect and especially so when talking about something as volatile as RP prospects, but... ZiPS projected ERA Breslow: 4.11 Jackson: 4.39 McGowan: 4.47 Naverson: 4.62 = 4.40 ERA Wittgren: 3.62 Ege: 3.40 Ellington: 3.71 Barraclough: 3.69 = 3.61 ERA And we're paying Brewslow/McGowan/Naverson a combined 3.7m (or, in other words, roughly what it'd have taken to keep Alvarez). At least Jackson is only making the minimum