Nny

Well that's only because we are desperate as fans to upgrade at 1st base. Anybody but Jones > Jones I get that but it's people saying things like they'd rather have Bour than Trumbo. That's just crazy.

Tired of filling holes with shit. Can we be a real team for once and not think old, shit, washedup players can somehow find the game again and carry the team to the postseason? It's great to try it to get lucky and be a little better, but fuck we do this every damn season at 2+ positions. Trumbo is only 28 though. He's one of the better options that's realistically available. Also, it's crazy to me how many people want to give a guy in his upper 20's with a career milb ops barely above .800 the starting 1b job on what should be a contending team because he had one good year in the PCL

That's what I mean. Koehler was good last year, but he was barely a passable #5 in 2013. Which is going to show up next year?

We are a very top heavy team. Our entire IF needs upgrades. When you're best player in the IF is possibly Hechavarria, you have problems. And our rotation is still a questionmark - how will Jose bounce back from surgery (just look at JJ)? Alvarez was great, but can he keep that up especially since he greatly outperformed his periphals? Meanwhile, is Eovaldi Nolasco 2.0 or will he pitch up to his peripherals? Is Koehler going to be 2013 instead of 2014? Is Heaney legit? We definitely shouldn't be viewed as a rental away from competing.

As I said in the other thread, he's only at best average offensively for a 1B but he is a plus defensively at the position. It's an upgrade, just not all that good of one. But we're not really looking at getting a big time upgrade anyway.

Morse is my favorite realistic option. That honestly isn't saying much though. I'd be really unhappy with Craig since he's on a three year deal. I kind of like Trumbo if he doens't cost much with how crowded ARI is now. While he's only averagish offensively for a 1B and had a down year last year ontop of that, he's also young and very good defensively at 1B. But I wouldn't give up much prospect wise for him. Definitely nothing close to what ARI gave up for him.

I'm a fan of Barnes but a thing to remember about his number is that he's been, at best, "not old" for his league. You can't just compare Romero's line to Barnes because Romero is three years younger. Romero was in Jupiter this year, whereas Barnes was in the NYPL at the same age. Love the BB/K though and he's shown okay power to back it up. I really do like him. If we go in as is, I think he should be in the running for our starting 2B with Dietrich and Kike.

I hadn't noticed that Morse hasn't only posted a WAR over 1 in 2011, and he's been a replacement player or worse for most of his time. I don't think it's a good idea anymore... His WAR is so bad because his defense in the OF so bad. If you propose that he had spent those defenseive IP at 1B and been what his career rate was there, he's been a ~2 WAR per year player.

Yelich could certainly be that good but assuming any player is going to be perennial MVP caliber is just asking to be disappointed

Good stuff Nny. You think Yelich will be higher than 4 WAR player?? Whoa... He's kind of like Carl Crawford by adding a lot of value with speed and defense (Yelich has the better bat, but Crawford added more with speed/defense). 4.3 WAR 22 years of age. He's not going to be a power hitter, but there's a lot of room to project growth in his offensive game. 4 WAR could be considered very conservative, but I don't like projecting too high.

Done this the past couple years, always fun to look at. Was surprisingly accurate last year considering how dirty it is. Few notes: -* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll -Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins -Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers. This is meant as a rough view and not meant to be completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture. -If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable. 2015 I have Jose pitching half a season, Heaney the other half. This is a top ~5-10 rotation in baseball with only a half season of Jose, as well as a top ~5-10 bullpen and there's room to think they can outperform this. We definitely don't need pitching. Top-5 OF in baseball, definitely don't need help there. And I really think Yelich can outperform my prediction WAR of him in the coming years. But we're looking at getting something like 2-3 WAR out of our IF again. Need help. I have us as a .500 team next year without any additional gains. We need help in the IF. And with how bad our IF is, anyone decent is a huge upgrade 2016 I try not to remove arbitration guys to show a more fuller picture, but this is with Koehler gone because there's almost no chance he breaks next years rotation unless a lot of things shake up. Mathis, Baker, and Jones off the books, but still increase in payroll through arbitrations. Full season of Jose = woo 2017 Payroll starts moving up a lot with a lot of guys hitting arbitration, but there is also a LOT of pitchers we can get rid of to save space. Trading Cishek and Eovaldi alone puts us back in the mid-60 range. Payroll still shouldn't be an issue here. 2018 Alvarez, Eolvadi, and Cishek gone. Last year of Jose. More arbitration raises. This is where we'll start needing prospects up, mostly in the rotation, because payroll is going to start to hurt. TL;DR We're currently built like a .500 team the next few years. We need help in the IF (gasp). We have a lotttt of payroll room the next three years, but by 2018 it goes up a lot. So we gotta try and focus on 3 year contracts in FA Also, we're fucking awesome if we roll out a 100m payroll. LaRoche 2/30, Lowrie 3/30, Headley 4/48, Shields 4/80: This is a 90+ win team easily. Was too lazy to make 2018 around 100m, but it's easily done by removing BP arms and shit. Not going to happen, but we're crazy good with a MLB average payroll the next three years. Oh well, life of being a Marlins fan.

they'll still have more runs on the season through the month of May then the 2013 team did. 152 runs last year through May, we currently sit at 157

I know, that's why I cited WAR for my example. But penguino would still hold it against him I'm sure. So you're citing an example that uses park factors to prove that park factors shouldn't be taken into consideration. ...what?

Yep, how dare wildcard attempt to question the great Johnny with his "advanced statistics." Maybe the great Johnny should teach him and all of us from his extensive background and experience. I didn't even say anything

Dunno if I want to jump the gun on the pitching yet. Eo & Alvarez had half seasons. Turner's so-so. High hopes for Heaney & the others but let's not go nuts just yet until it plays out another year. This isn't the Nats or Boston or Tigers. I want Stanton and if they can't work one star contract then Loria should fold up the %^$%^@ tent. It's important not to look at Alvarez and Eovaldi as front line starters because then one will likely be disappointed. Both both have been in the major for 3 years now and have shown the ability to be average SP, with a ERA+ that'll probably hover around 100 going forward. And there is most definitely value in average SP. This also goes for Heaney. It's generally the smart thing to be conservative when projecting. It's better to project him as an average SP than as a front line because it's more realistic that that'll be the outcome. There are few aces in the majors yet a lot of top SP prospects for a reason. The biggest thing to me is that they stay injury free. You never know with SP in that regard, and both had issues last season. Turner and his career 4.64 FIP is a different issue though.

Seattle seems to be going all-in and they want a closer. I don't know why we didn't just expand the LoMo deal to get Nick Franklin. This seems like a good fit - Cishek alone wouldn't be enough would it? Add Nicolino maybe? If Addison Reed can net Matt Davidson, I'd think it wouldn't really take more than Cishek to get Franklin. It's definitely what we need to aim for when trading him though. Preferable a SS, but with so many SS options in the next FA class it'd more important to get the better IF player even if it's a 1B instead of a MI.

I'll read through the entire thing in a bit, but I wanted to just point out that I found it funny that in these projections Furcal is set to produce about as much this year as Dietrich is expected to produce at 2B the next two years. Another reason why the Furcal signing was useless and the team should just let Dietrich prove himself as the starting 2B next season. Furcal is just a $3 million addition to the payroll and taking valuable learning experience away from Dietrich. Yeah, it's really hard to justify the Furcal signing if you're not building to win in 2014. Signing a 36yo who hasn't played in a year with a combined 83 OPS+ the two seasons prior to that is just... If you're going to sign somebody in a building-for-the-future, it should be young risk signs like McGehee/Jones. Polanco and Pierre at least made more sense last year since we didn't have young guys to even play at the start of the year. Now they just spent 3.5m for someone who likely won't help us this year and blocks someone who might help us in the future. Oh well

Now it is a special case, but A-Rod's is front loaded. 157m the first 5 years (~31.5m per), 118m the last 5 years (~23.5m per). He does have an extra 30m in HR incentives to bring the contract to a more even stand point though. But it's unlikely he'll hit all of them (Would have to average over 27 HR the next four years, and he's averaged less than 14 the past 3). Hell, it's questionable if he'll even hit two of the milestones (he'll have to average 15 HR to tie Ruth's 714).

So another that thinks we should pay higher than set market value? No, the Marlins have spent the 2nd fewest in the draft. That's a fact. You're the one spinning it for reasons. And you keep only focusing on the 1st round where we sign for slot, while ignoring the rest of the draft. We rarely sign high upside guys in the later rounds, mostly focusing on college filler for our system. Spending more money doesn't automatically make you better, but having less money puts you in a worse position than having more money. And Beinfest's hands were likely tied in that regard in the draft.

26) Philadelphia: $22,802,700 27) Los Angeles Angels: $22,694,400 28) Atlanta: $22,011,050 29) Florida: $21,711,050 30) White Sox: $18,327,450 Off topic but it's interesting to me how low Atlanta is with how often they churn out guys. What they drafted in that time frame: Evan Gattis (Starting C), Freddie Freeman (Starting 1B), Andrelton Simmons (Starting SS), Jason Heyward (Starting RF), Mike Minor (Frontline SP), Craig Kimbrel (Top closer in the game). Those 6 combined for a 22.8 WAR last year, or average of ~4 WAR each. Just crazy. Their scouting department is rather amazing to turn out all those players while spending the 3 lowest amount.

But however you want to spin it so you don't have to admit you were wrong is fine with me. It's funny because the only person who is spinning anything to not admit they are wrong is you. I mean Jesus, this exchange is just saddening.

The point of this is to really be able to objectify what holes we need to address and what resources we have to address those holes. I did this last offseason prior to the firesale (which more-or-less justified the firesale unless we were going over a 100m payroll. It's also interesting to see how much our pitching progressed from then) and thought it'd be good to see where we now stand going forward. Few notes: -* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll -Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins -Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers. This is meant as a rough view and not meant to be completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture. -If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable. 2014 Nothing really to say except that our IF sucks ass while the rest of our team is good and our payroll is super low (aka what everyone already knows). I have us at ~78 wins, Zips has us at ~75 wins. So there really isn't much hope even with major break outs. Our IF just sucks so bad 2015 With continual development from the likes of Fernandez, Yelich, and Ozuna/Mars, the first full season of Heaney, and the departure of Dobbs, I think we progress to being around a .500 win team. Still way too many holes in the IF. Our pitching staff will likely be in the top-5 (and that's being conservative) in the NL, our OF will be top ranked as well, but our current projected IF is looking like the worst in baseball. The good part? The IF FA class is a lot more interesting than this past year's. Up the middle, there is Lowrie, Hardy, and Asdrubal Cabrera (Their contracts probably being around 3-4 years at 9-12m per). At third, there's Sandoval and Headley (4-5 years at 14-17m per). All of which are about ~3 WAR players and relatively young. Further expounding optimism is just how much money there is to play with. We're looking at a current projected payroll of just 50m. Removing Cishek, Dunn, and McGehee frees up over another 10m. Hech and Turner are more pieces that would not hurt to move to free up room. We could sign 3 of the above players and still be around just a 75m payroll. Now, it's unlikely we sign all 3 for a lot of reasons. But we need to sign at least two (likely of the up-the-middle variety so as not to block Moran) to be serious contenders. If we do that, we're looking at a ~5 win increase and now being an upper-80's team. Still not great, but there's a lot of room for growth with our young players. There is also dealing from our SP depth to fill these holes. And that really should not hurt us all too bad. If we have a desire to upgrade 1st (and we likely should), it'll have to be through trade. The FA class there is incredibly weak. But there is also the option of moving Stanton to first if both Ozuna and Marisnick develop well. This would free up even more money to spend on the rest of the IF. 2016 With Fernandez hitting arbitration, as well as the continual raises in others like Stanton, Eovaldi, Alvarez, and Cishek, our payroll is getting pretty high. Dumping a lot of our pen (which, with our pitching depth, is not a bad thing) frees up a ton of payroll though so this isn't too big of a thing. Again: need IF help. 2017 will also be pretty hard on payroll with more guys like Yelich and Ozuna/Mars hitting arbitration. Plus Stanton getting huge pay raise from FA years. Oh, wait. Sigh. TLDR Lot of hope starting in 2015 based off how good our pitching and OF are, along with a stronger IF FA class and a lot of money to spend. As long as they actually spend that money.

Yup, and their history is one of the highest when it comes to international signings and development. Speak of all the facts, not just the ones that suit your narrative, fat boy. I'm pretty positive that you don't actually know what the definition of "facts" is.

Except Eovaldi is a #4, #3 maybe. Certainly not a #2. He's basically the definition of an average SP. No, he's not "shit", but he was a shit return because we sold low. And no, a lot of people weren't up in arms because a lot of people don't like Hanley as I said before. For things like "lack of leadership" that YearOne brought up among other dumb things. I'm happy for Hanley as a human being to not be on this team anymore because ownership, the team, the fanbase, basically everyone treated him like shit.

That's because a lot of people don't like Hanley. He had a .51 BB/K (.57 in his career), .181 ISO (.204 in his career, and just moved into a lot worse hitting stadium), and a .271 BABIP (.334 in his career). Normalize his BABIP and you're looking at a very different line from him. Now, nobody saw this explosion coming from him. I'm definitely not saying that we should have expected him to go monster mode, his season last year was just crazy. But him being a .850+ OPS bat again was so incredibly far from being far-fetched that it more or less should have been expected to be. I didn't like it because signs pointed that his line would improve and we were selling low. I also didn't like it because "bad" Hanley is still a 3 WAR player. It was just dumb all around.