http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-do-you-solve-a-problem-like-the-marlins/

 

Even the sabermatricians are confused. Based on the advanced stats, we are actually UNDERPERFORMING in wins and loses.

 

I wonder if penguino wrote this. Even at the end he's trying to find SOME reason to poke holes in the team... I for one love the confusion.

I mean did you read the whole article or just the first couple paragraphs because on your comments above I don't think you really get the point.

Again trying to instigate, I see.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-do-you-solve-a-problem-like-the-marlins/

 

Even the sabermatricians are confused. Based on the advanced stats, we are actually UNDERPERFORMING in wins and loses.

 

I wonder in penguino wrote this. Even at the end he's trying to find SOME reason to poke holes in the team... I for one love the confusion.

 

Based on this post, it doesn't seem like you comprehended one word of the article.

It's only because we beat a couple of teams by 9 or 10 runs.

Based on this post, it doesn't seem like you comprehended one word of the article.

 

He basically read the first few paragraphs then stopped it seems. lol

He basically read the first few paragraphs then stopped it seems. lol

 

Wild Card stopped reading at this point in the article:

 

So, given all of this, does it follow that the Marlins are truly one of the best teams in baseball?

 

Well, no, not really.

http://www.therunnersports.com/2014/04/09/solve-problem-like-miami-marlins-first-baseman-garrett-jones/

 

Interesting title, mine was weeks ago. I'll take my royalties via Paypal.

We're hitting it where they ain't.

The guys only reasoning for the team deflating is because the career numbers say they will. He admits that every advanced metric says the team is primed for success, but because it's not the norm, we should ignore it.

 

You can't LOVE advanced stats and sabermetrics ONLY when it's convenient.

We're hitting it where they ain't.

 

LOL. Looks like BroncoBob was right. That's why there are 4 hitters in the lineup with BABIPs over .350 and another two hitters with BABIPs a hair below that.

 

So that means that there are 6 out of the 8 hitters in the lineup with BABIPs at approximately .350 or better. It looks like the new hitting strategy is paying off!

The guys only reasoning for the team deflating is because the career numbers say they will. He admits that every advanced metric says the team is primed for success, but because it's not the norm, we should ignore it.

 

You can't LOVE advanced stats and sabermetrics ONLY when it's convenient.

 

Not at all. The article you posted (but didn't comprehend) points to the BABIP as well, which is unsustainably high. You can also point to the small sample size.

 

In other words, the advanced stats do not point to this being a great team, despite what the early results indicate.

The Marlins always hit a rough patch but maybe this time they can over come that and still be decent. We'll see.

Not at all. The article you posted (but didn't comprehend) points to the BABIP as well, which is unsustainably high. You can also point to the small sample size.

 

The BABIP is not .380 or something ridiculous, it's .335. Not to mention there's a decent reason for having such a high BABIP at home; the ballpark is huge and most visiting OFers have zero idea where to position themselves. It's a lot easier for a ball to drop somewhere in the OF in Miami rather than Philly. Our BABIP at home will come back to earth, but on the road we can actually improve. I just think it's funny that when all the numbers suggest something, there's still reason to deflate it.

Why does everyone suggest our BABIP is too high as a team? BABIP is normally conserved year to year player by player. So by definition "average" BABIP isn't. For example in 273 PA's Yelich had a BABIP of .380 suggesting his current BABIP of being completely par for the course. The other guy who lots of articles sight as hitting over their head is Salty. Saltalamacchia has a BABIP 1 point higher than last year. His walk rate is his most significant feature, and that is something that could go up by a change in approach. My point is the .335 BABIP is a meaningless statistic because yes some guys are getting lucky, I'm looking at you hech, but there are guys who just have a career high BABIP.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-do-you-solve-a-problem-like-the-marlins/

 

Even the sabermatricians are confused. Based on the advanced stats, we are actually UNDERPERFORMING in wins and loses.

 

I wonder in penguino wrote this. Even at the end he's trying to find SOME reason to poke holes in the team... I for one love the confusion.

I read the article and I guess that it would be interesting to fans that like sabermetrics. I for one don't understand how anyone can enjoy the game that way. I'm not knocking anyone for being into these stats. That is your right and if it makes the game more enjoyable for you then great. For me personally, I have a mortgage to pay, a wife, four kids to support, and I own four insurance agencies in Miami Dade. That is reality enough for me . When I get home and watch the Marlins, it's a get a way for me and the last thing that I want to hear about is a players BABIP, OPS, or WAR. I just want to see my fish play and compete. I always believe they can win and defy the odds. A bit naive perhaps but in the end that optimism is what makes it enjoyable for me. When I want to be a "realist" I walk away from the TV and go back to reality. Again, this is not a knock on sabermetrics supporters. I just wanted to give a perspective from a fan that doesn't care for advanced stats because it seems to me that many times on these boards people with a different perspective get dismissed as dumb or ignorant and ge made fun of by the resident forum statisticians. Just my two cents.

The BABIP is not .380 or something ridiculous, it's .335. Not to mention there's a decent reason for having such a high BABIP at home; the ballpark is huge and most visiting OFers have zero idea where to position themselves. It's a lot easier for a ball to drop somewhere in the OF in Miami rather than Philly. Our BABIP at home will come back to earth, but on the road we can actually improve. I just think it's funny that when all the numbers suggest something, there's still reason to deflate it.

 

It's .357 at home, which is ridiculous even for a ballpark of this size. Parks with large playing fields (like Coors) usually top out around at .330. Also remember that BABIP also takes into account ground balls getting through holes in the infield (hitting them where they ain't) and that is independent of the size of the park.

 

Also take into account the fact that opposing hitters have only a .274 BABIP against Marlins pitchers at home, so that should also clue you in on the good fortune that the Marlins have been having at home. You definitely expect that .274 BABIP to go up and that .357 BABIP to go down over time.

Why does everyone suggest our BABIP is too high as a team? BABIP is normally conserved year to year player by player. So by definition "average" BABIP isn't. For example in 273 PA's Yelich had a BABIP of .380 suggesting his current BABIP of being completely par for the course. The other guy who lots of articles sight as hitting over their head is Salty. Saltalamacchia has a BABIP 1 point higher than last year. His walk rate is his most significant feature, and that is something that could go up by a change in approach. My point is the .335 BABIP is a meaningless statistic because yes some guys are getting lucky, I'm looking at you hech, but there are guys who just have a career high BABIP.

 

This is wrong. BABIP baselines are not determined on individual basis, but rather upon the performance of all of the hitters in the entire league.

 

Less important, but Yelich's BABIP was also over a fairly small sample size.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/babip/

 

read the article again on fangraphs it is very much dependent on career numbers. Individual players have independent BABIP's. These career stats allow you to understand and asses the proper regression. Not every player will have a BABIP of .300. It is this variance that needs to be taken into account when assessing how much regression is expected. If you only consider the league average you miss half the calculations.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/babip/

 

read the article again on fangraphs it is very much dependent on career numbers. Individual players have independent BABIP's. These career stats allow you to understand and asses the proper regression. Not every player will have a BABIP of .300. It is this variance that needs to be taken into account when assessing how much regression is expected. If you only consider the league average you miss half the calculations.

 

That's not really what the article is saying. BABIP rates can be higher or lower than .300 for a given player, but any extreme deviations from that are likely contributed to other factors and are not sustainable. As the article says, "they should be taken for a grain of salt." In other words, you cannot assume that a .380 BABIP is acceptable for Yelich simply because he did it once in less than half of a season's worth of PAs.

 

In other words, the baseline is always around .300 (give or take) but it can consistently be higher for certain players, based on other conditions. For example, speedier runners tend to have higher BABIP figures sometimes.

 

Basically what I'm saying is that you cannot consider Yelich's BABIP to be "par for the course" based on what the Fangraphs article is explaining.

So then can we consider what the babip should be for him? or do we have to just assume there will be a regression?

It's .357 at home, which is ridiculous even for a ballpark of this size. Parks with large playing fields (like Coors) usually top out around at .330. Also remember that BABIP also takes into account ground balls getting through holes in the infield (hitting them where they ain't) and that is independent of the size of the park.

 

Also take into account the fact that opposing hitters have only a .274 BABIP against Marlins pitchers at home, so that should also clue you in on the good fortune that the Marlins have been having at home. You definitely expect that .274 BABIP to go up and that .357 BABIP to go down over time.

 

Of course it won't be .357 all season, I already conceided this. However, it is totally possible it could stay around .320-.330 as you mentioned it can be in bigger ballparks. I know it also takes into account balls that make it through the hole, which is why I didn't mention that.

 

Again, also take into account that our OFers position themselves much better in our ballpark than those of opposing teams, and our outfielders likely cover a bit more ground than most as well. Our pitching staff is also better than most of the league. So I would absolutely expect us to have a considerably higher BABIP at home over our opponents.

For me personally, I have a mortgage to pay, a wife, four kids to support, and I own four insurance agencies in Miami Dade. That is reality enough for me.

So then can we consider what the babip should be for him? or do we have to just assume there will be a regression?

 

Either closer to the .300 baseline or project one based on his groundball/flyball/line drive batted ball data.

 

A .380 BABIP simply is not sustainable for any player. Whoever wrote that Fangraphs piece would tell you the same thing.

I read the article and I guess that it would be interesting to fans that like sabermetrics. I for one don't understand how anyone can enjoy the game that way. I'm not knocking anyone for being into these stats. That is your right and if it makes the game more enjoyable for you then great. For me personally, I have a mortgage to pay, a wife, four kids to support, and I own four insurance agencies in Miami Dade. That is reality enough for me . When I get home and watch the Marlins, it's a get a way for me and the last thing that I want to hear about is a players BABIP, OPS, or WAR. I just want to see my fish play and compete. I always believe they can win and defy the odds. A bit naive perhaps but in the end that optimism is what makes it enjoyable for me. When I want to be a "realist" I walk away from the TV and go back to reality. Again, this is not a knock on sabermetrics supporters. I just wanted to give a perspective from a fan that doesn't care for advanced stats because it seems to me that many times on these boards people with a different perspective get dismissed as dumb or ignorant and ge made fun of by the resident forum statisticians. Just my two cents.

 

I agree, and it was my reason for posting the article. I find it funny that all the numbers point to the Marlins simply being a good team, and the writer just wants to find a way to poke holes in that. It's why I don't usually look too far into the advanced numbers, just the easily calculated ones we've been using for decades.