http://www.therunnersports.com/2014/04/09/solve-problem-like-miami-marlins-first-baseman-garrett-jones/

 

Interesting title, mine was weeks ago. I'll take my royalties via Paypal.

...so that you can forward them to Hammerstein?

Of course it won't be .357 all season, I already conceided this. However, it is totally possible it could stay arouns .320-.330 as you mentioned it can in bigger ballparks. I know it also takes into account balls that make it through the hole, which is why I didn't mention that.

 

Again, also take into account that our OFers position themselves much better than those of opposing teams, and our outfielders likely cover a bit more ground than most as well. Our pitching staff is also better than most of the league. So I would absolutely expect us to have a considerably higher BABIP at home over our opponents.

 

You didn't concede that because you didn't know about the .357 home BABIP until I told you about it a second ago. You assumed that it was more in the .330 range and said that figure wasn't crazy. So you are misrepresenting your earlier remarks now.

 

It could end up being in the .320-.330 range (it's not impossible), but you are talking about a 30 point drop, which is far from insignificant and will end up with a substantial drop in offensive production.

 

I also don't think that there is really anything to support your claim that Marlins OFers position themselves better or cover more ground. I think you pulled that out of your ass as a way to try to justify the low opponent BABIP, but it's not very convincing. Either way, that wouldn't explain such a strong deviation from the baseline.

 

As far as pitching goes, that remains to be seen. Right now the Marlins sit at the middle of the pack, but the Nationals and Braves arguably have better pitching staffs and the Marlins play a lot of home games against them.

I agree, and it was my reason for posting the article. I find it funny that all the numbers point to the Marlins simply being a good team, and the writer just wants to find a way to poke holes in that. It's why I don't usually look too far into the advanced numbers, just the easily calculated ones we've been using for decades.

 

That's not what the article says.

In my opinion, this article does a pretty poor job of justifying its thesis, namely that the Marlins still aren't a good team.

 

The author says that in normalizing the BABIP and removing the "extra hits," they lose a quarter of their run differential. Assuming he's referring to the actual run differential of +24, then that's 6 runs lost. They'd then be +18, which would still be tied for 3rd in the NL and 6th in the majors. He also mentions how their run estimator suggests they should have a +5 better run differential than they do, which would essentially erase the modification due to BABIP normalizing. I realize that this may be a bit of double-counting insofar as the run estimator does not control for BABIP, but it's still a weak argument there.

 

I'm glad this article got written and this discussion got going, because I've been pondering it myself. One should have great skepticism for a player's overperformance over a 32-game sample. But, when you have 25 32-game samples, it lends it more statistical credence, no?

You didn't concede that because you didn't know about the .357 home BABIP until I told you about it a second ago. You assumed that it was more in the .330 range and said that figure wasn't crazy. So you are misrepresenting your earlier remarks now.

 

It could end up being in the .320-.330 range (it's not impossible), but you are talking about a 30 point drop, which is far from insignificant and will end up with a substantial drop in offensive production.

 

I also don't think that there is really anything to support your claim that Marlins OFers position themselves better or cover more ground. I think you pulled that out of your ass as a way to try to justify the low opponent BABIP, but it's not very convincing. Either way, that wouldn't explain such a strong deviation from the baseline.

 

As far as pitching goes, that remains to be seen. Right now the Marlins sit at the middle of the pack, but the Nationals and Braves arguably have better pitching staffs and the Marlins play a lot of home games against them.

 

1. Wrong. The BABIP is .330 for the season, home and away. And I said it was HIGHER than that at home, and conceded that it would regress.

 

2. Whether it's convinced you or not, I couldn't care less. Yelich has excellent range for a LFer, Ozuna is a damn good CFer, and Stanton probably is league average in RF. They likely have better range, collectively, than most opponents. And Jeff Conine actually mentioned this recently, most opponents position themselves according to their proximity to the warning track, so when they position deep, they stay closer to the track. They do this at Marlins Park not really realizing JUST how deep they really are, and it allows a lot of balls to fall in front of them. The big reason why most OFers do this is because it's slightly acceptable to have a ball drop in for a hit, it's almost NEVER acceptable for one to get hit past you. OUR outfielders, however, have a much better understanding of the ballparks true dimensions and position themselves accordingly. Whether it makes sense to you, again, I don't care. It makes sense if you've played baseball.

 

3. Wrong again. We are not in the middle of the pack, we rank 10th in MLB in ERA, 9th in WHIP, 9th in BAA, and 6th in quality starts, which gives us one of baseball's top 10 pitching staffs. That's playoff caliber.

It's really misleading to say that the Marlins are 10th in ERA in MLB, because only one of those teams ahead of the Marlins is in the AL (DH you know). They are 9th of 16 in the NL in pitcher's ERA.

 

As for the outfield positioning, you are speaking purely in generalizations without an ounce of evidence to support it. Your defensive evaluations of players are also always bogusly overoptimistic (you told everyone that Dietrich was a good 2B before the season started). Superior positioning and offensive talent would also not account for the 83 point difference in BABIP between the Marlins and visiting teams. It's not out of the question that the Marlins have a better outfield defense than the rest of the league, but that won't explain such an extreme difference--it would account for a fraction of that.

It's really misleading to say that the Marlins are 10th in ERA in MLB, because only one of those teams ahead of the Marlins is in the AL (DH you know). They are 9th of 16 in the NL in pitcher's ERA.

 

As for the outfield positioning, you are speaking purely in generalizations without an ounce of evidence to support it. Your defensive evaluations of players are also always bogusly overoptimistic (you told everyone that Dietrich was a good 2B before the season started). Superior positioning and offensive talent would also not account for the 83 point difference in BABIP between the Marlins and visiting teams. It's not out of the question that the Marlins have a better outfield defense than the rest of the league, but that won't explain such an extreme difference--it would account for a fraction of that.

 

It's not really misleading, it's fact.

 

And as I mentioned, Jeff Conine just discussed this on air a few days ago. That's years of major league experience supporting it.

Really? That's what you took out of that? LOL

It's misleading because the Marlins only play a fraction of their games against the AL teams ranked below them. That's why statisticians almost always rank a team with respect to the other teams in the same league, not all of baseball. By saying that the Marlins are ranked 10 in MLB, you ignore the fact that the AL teams are statistically at a disadvantage. It's always shocking to me that you simply cannot grasp these things that are so elementary.

 

I respect Conine's opinion on that, but he's basically making an observation about a tendency. That does not give enough certainty to account for a rather gaping hole between home and visiting BABIP figures.

 

By the way, squall is right on the money here. You wasted so much breath with your idiocy about park factors and now you are basically lobbying hard for differences in park. You look rather foolish and hypocritical here.

Really? That's what you took out of that? LOL

I have too many responsibilities to care about the rest.

Well this thread became a huge dick measuring contest. I'll be ----------------------------------> this way if you need me.

Well this thread became a huge dick measuring contest. I'll be ----------------------------------> this way if you need me.

 

Are you going to climb up on your high horse every time people have a heated discussion here?

Seems like a good place to be.

It must be since you spend so much time there.

I love all the discussion. Actually now reading this thread it's a lot better than some of the other threads. Not the kind of the vitriol that I've seen in other threads.

 

My bad. Will read threads before making smartass comment next time

Well this thread became a huge dick measuring contest. I'll be ----------------------------------> this way if you need me.

If this was a penis-size joke, then I saw what you did there. If not, then lolz at me.

It's misleading because the Marlins only play a fraction of their games against the AL teams ranked below them. That's why statisticians almost always rank a team with respect to the other teams in the same league, not all of baseball. By saying that the Marlins are ranked 10 in MLB, you ignore the fact that the AL teams are statistically at a disadvantage. It's always shocking to me that you simply cannot grasp these things that are so elementary.

 

I respect Conine's opinion on that, but he's basically making an observation about a tendency. That does not give enough certainty to account for a rather gaping hole between home and visiting BABIP figures.

 

By the way, squall is right on the money here. You wasted so much breath with your idiocy about park factors and now you are basically lobbying hard for differences in park. You look rather foolish and hypocritical here.

Dude, you just seem to pick and choose what you want to hear from me every conversation we have. I completely agreed that parks play a factor, the only thing I said was you shouldn't hold where a player plays his home games against him.

And what you said still makes no sense. At least, if you agree that parks are a factor, then if a hitter plays in Coors, you have to hold it against him statistically. Not holding it against him would be ignoring park factors.

And what you said still makes no sense. At least, if you agree that parks are a factor, then if a hitter plays in Coors, you have to hold it against him statistically. Not holding it against him would be ignoring park factors.

Don't they place the balls in humidors?

 

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Ball still carries very well there and it's still a big-ass ballpark.

And what you said still makes no sense. At least, if you agree that parks are a factor, then if a hitter plays in Coors, you have to hold it against him statistically. Not holding it against him would be ignoring park factors.

It does make sense, you just don't agree.

 

Example. Troy Tulowitzki leads the NL right now in WAR (by a wide margin). If today were the last day of the season, would him playing in Colorado make you say, "Nah, I'm not gonna vote for that guy to be MVP." You? Probably. Me? Not at all because he can't control the name on the front. Make sense now?

It does make sense, you just don't agree.

 

Example. Troy Tulowitzki leads the NL right now in WAR (by a wide margin). If today were the last day of the season, would him playing in Colorado make you say, "Nah, I'm not gonna vote for that guy to be MVP." You? Probably. Me? Not at all because he can't control the name on the front. Make sense now?

I think WAR accounts for ballpark factors...

 

fWAR does for sure.

I think WAR accounts for ballpark factors...

 

fWAR does for sure.

WAR does too as far as I know

Stanton can bunt a home run in Coors.

Bad example. Stanton is a freak of nature. He could probably do that here! :-P

 

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Dude, you just seem to pick and choose what you want to hear from me every conversation we have. I completely agreed that parks play a factor, the only thing I said was you shouldn't hold where a player plays his home games against him.

I see you've met Penguino.