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regressing back towards the mean

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the marlins seen to be in good shape as most parts of this team are starting to click on all cylinders. if they continue to play like this they could win the division. all they have to do is beat out the braves because the nats are sinking fast. The reason is that the nats cant keep coming out on top of these one run games. Mathematically it cant be kept up. eventually the nats will lose these one run games and it will all even out. they just dont have the players to do it.

the marlins seen to be in good shape as most parts of this team are starting to click on all cylinders. if they continue to play like this they could win the division. all they have to do is beat out the braves because the nats are sinking fast. The reason is that the nats cant keep coming out on top of these one run games. Mathematically it cant be kept up. eventually the nats will lose these one run games and it will all even out. they just dont have the players to do it.

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no doubt. when your outscored in the long run like the nats are it will come back to haunt them.

Theres still about half the season left. If we get to the break 6 games over .500 (or better) we will be in excellent shape.

Mathematically it cant be kept up. eventually the nats will lose these one run games and it will all even out. they just dont have the players to do it.

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not really.

 

For example you can flip a coin and gets heads 50 times in a row, but the chance of getting heads again is the same as the first time.

 

Now they can comeback to earth because they've being outscored which is a good sign that they are not for real.

Yeah if the events are independent, and the nats winning a lot of one run games arent independent, just as when they start losing one run games they arent independent. A losing streak will come, it just depends how many games and whether the marlins are playing good ball at that time.

  • Author

It doesn't always even out...I hope it does though.

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not really because flipping a coin obeys the laws of chance. baseball is not a game of chance but of skill therefore the nats w/o better players will eventually lose those one run games

Well, if the Nats do indeed regress and play to their run differential for the rest of the season, and play .500 ball as a result of it for the rest of the year, they'd still win around 90 games.

Well, if the Nats do indeed regress and play to their run differential for the rest of the season, and play .500 ball as a result of it for the rest of the year, they'd still win around 90 games.

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Scary thought. I guess that means we REALLY need to step it up after the break.

the marlins seen to be in good shape as most parts of this team are starting to click on all cylinders. if they continue to play like this they could win the division. all they have to do is beat out the braves because the nats are sinking fast. The reason is that the nats cant keep coming out on top of these one run games. Mathematically it cant be kept up. eventually the nats will lose these one run games and it will all even out. they just dont have the players to do it.

845168[/snapback]

i didn't know losing 3 out of 4 was sinking fast...as much as i'd like to think they'll end up in the basement..

Well, the Nats lost a one run extra inning game today, so that's a start.

Well, the Nats lost a one run extra inning game today, so that's a start.

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At home :thumbup

...the nats are sinking fast.

 

 

True, but in their case sinking fast means only winning 7 out of their last 10, and that's not sinking fast enough.

  • 3 weeks later...

the marlins seen to be in good shape as most parts of this team are starting to click on all cylinders. if they continue to play like this they could win the division. all they have to do is beat out the braves because the nats are sinking fast. The reason is that the nats cant keep coming out on top of these one run games. Mathematically it cant be kept up. eventually the nats will lose these one run games and it will all even out. they just dont have the players to do it.

845168[/snapback]

 

 

GENIUS :notworthy

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