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The Official "Hurricane Emily" Watch Thread


TimeWrecker
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EDIT: ALL THREE MAPS AUTO UPDATE, ARE CURRENT. NO NEED TO POST AGAIN. USE FOR REFERENCE ON THE STORM

 

Here we are, early July, and FL was just hit by Hurricane Dennis, we could be on the ride early. This storm will be Tropical Storm Emily by tomorrow, and is headed our way.

 

 

 

This afternoon i saw the little circle with a tail on the edge of the atlantic map while looking at Dennis... i was thinking... could that... i hope not...

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any predictions on where it might hit yet

850271[/snapback]

 

Check out the map

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Yea but is it going to go to North Florida or South Fla?

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Nobody knows. At this point it's got a good chance at anywhere between Texas and Virginia.

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Just when I thought I could sleep easy and Hurricane Warning 2005 could cool off on the hits...boom.....TD #5 is knocking.

 

We had almost 9,000 hits during Dennis and we will continue to keep the latest from all of our sources including the National Hurricane Center, the Accuweather Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, and the National Weather Service.

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This TD is possibly headed anywhere on the east coast.

 

 

 

But, the NHC and Joe Bastardi are forecasting that after TD 5 reaches Puerto Rico/Hispanola, the High Pressure Ridge that kept Dennis from South Florida is to grow in strength and steer it more westerly towards possibly Florida. But, thats if it survives Hispanola where many a hurricane have gone to die.

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This TD is possibly headed anywhere on the east coast.

 

 

 

But, the NHC and Joe Bastardi are forecasting that after TD 5 reaches Puerto Rico/Hispanola, the High Pressure Ridge that kept Dennis from South Florida is to grow in strength and steer it more westerly towards possibly Florida. But, thats if it survives Hispanola where many a hurricane have gone to die.

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Yes. It is forecast to go north of Hispaniola and if so could threaten S. Fla. It's several days out so we just need to keep our eye on it. It wouldn't be a bad idea to make sure all your hurricane supplies are up to date. It's that time of year, and this year is projected to be another busy one.

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000

WTNT45 KNHC 110310

TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

 

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STRONG

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1280 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS

STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM

BOTH TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...A

SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED

LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25-KT INTENSITY.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24-36

HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT.

THE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE

ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN 84 TO 96 HOURS

TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 5...

THE RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO

BUILD BACK IN AND POSSIBLY TURN THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD

TRACK OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINCIAN REPUBLIC.

 

THE DEPRESSION...WHILE WELL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS

EMBEDDED WITHIN ONLY A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED IN

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS SUCH...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR

WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD

ONLY ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS

OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...NEAR

29C SSTS...AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW

FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL

MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 112 KT IN 120 HOURS OR SO.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 11/0300Z 10.8N 42.9W 25 KT

12HR VT 11/1200Z 11.0N 44.5W 30 KT

24HR VT 12/0000Z 11.5N 46.7W 35 KT

36HR VT 12/1200Z 12.1N 49.0W 40 KT

48HR VT 13/0000Z 12.8N 51.7W 50 KT

72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 57.5W 60 KT

96HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W 70 KT

120HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W 75 KT

 

$$

 

 

 

Hmmm. There's a number of factors here that make this depression one worth watching.

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