WTNT42 KNHC 182043

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

 

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

TWENTY-SEVEN HAVE REFORMED INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED

NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL

WINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT JUST NORTH OF ROATAN ISLAND...ALONG WITH

TWO SPOTS OF 45 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...

ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM GAMMA

WITH 35 KT WINDS. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS

SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE

CENTER HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CIRRUS

OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED

ELSEWHERE.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 300/04...WITH ADDITIONAL

UNCERTAINTY ADDED BY THE ELONGATION OF THE CENTER. GAMMA IS

CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO

BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THESE

RIDGES TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH

MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE

CYCLOGENESIS OVER EITHER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE ATLANTIC

OCEAN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION

SHOULD TURN GAMMA NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.

WHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT

BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF GAMMA...AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL

MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR LESS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS

FORECAST A VERY WEAK GAMMA TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...

WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONGER GAMMA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE ON THE GFDL ON THE BASIS THAT IT

HAS A STRONGER SYSTEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HOWEVER...IF GAMMA DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS FORECAST THE

MOTION COULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS.

 

GAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. SHEAR

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF

SHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR

TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. IN ADDITION...GAMMA

IS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME

STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS

FOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL

BARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS

THE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR...

ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.

AFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

AND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW

OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT

ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP

INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD

TRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL

PROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

Actually after looking at the loop, it isn't 'too' bad for this early in the formation. Only 40 MPH, and very far away...

god damn it.

 

and they just got done repairing all the damage to my apartment.

god damn it.

 

and they just got done repairing all the damage to my apartment.

 

See you in three weeks?

Well atleast my fellow neighbors don't have to worry about their screen panels anymore (blown away in wilma)... however, mine are still attached for the most part... kinda not good

It just won't stop.

 

Tropical Storm Gamma soon could follow Hurricane Wilma's trail across South Florida -- a place still tattooed with blue tarps, still filled with dangerous piles of hurricane debris, still shaken by the most active hurricane season in history.

 

''This is not what would make my day,'' said Gail Miller of Oakland Park, who lost electricity for nine days and is still cleaning up the mess left by Wilma. ``This is just lovely news. Happy Thanksgiving.''

 

Preliminary and unusually uncertain predictions carried Gamma to the Naples area Monday and then diagonally across South Florida as a strong tropical storm -- but with winds likely below the 74-mph threshold of a hurricane.

 

High clouds associated with Gamma already flowed over South Florida. Forecasters warned of the possibility of three to six inches of rain and gusty winds through Monday.

 

But they said Gamma's fate -- and South Florida's -- was not clear. The storm was not well organized and it could fall apart or dramatically shift direction before it approaches Florida.

 

Gamma formed Friday afternoon in the Caribbean, growing out of the remnants of a tropical depression that deteriorated earlier in the week. Warnings and watches were posted in Belize, Honduras and along Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

 

''It's still about three days away and right now we think it will be a tropical storm if it were to impact South Florida,'' said meteorologist Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

 

''It's something to pay attention to, to keep an eye on, but we will have to wait until Saturday or Sunday to see what will happen,'' he said.

 

Gamma is the 24th named storm of this record-setting hurricane season. Four hurricanes struck or brushed Florida this year and four hit the state last year.

 

With thousands of South Floridians still homeless or otherwise trying to recover from Wilma's rampage through the region less than three weeks ago, sensitivities were aroused.

 

And emergency managers said they dreaded the thought of any severe weather at this sensitive stage of recovery.

 

''My concern is that we have over 6,500 tarps that were installed by the Army Corp of Engineers and countless other tarps that people picked up and put on their roofs,'' said Tony Carper, director of Broward County's Emergency Management Division. ``And just a tropical storm is going to exacerbate damage to homes.

 

``Hopefully, it won't cause a lot of power outages and damage all the traffic lights again. We've had a number of other tropical storms and they're usually windy and rainy, but in our weakened condition, even that would cause a lot more damage than we would normally expect.''

 

The situation was similar in Miami-Dade.

 

''We have lots of structures with roofs compromised and other damage,'' said Carlos Castillo, Miami-Dade's director of emergency management. ``Knowing this could go where Wilma went, we have to watch it closely.''

 

 

 

Linky

im gonna cry!

I love it !

sh*t!

i quit

sh*t!

i quit

 

 

What, life?

here we go again...

:plain !!!!!

000

WTNT42 KNHC 190329

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

 

...CLARIFIED WORDING IN SECOND PARAGRAPH...

 

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... ON ITS LAST LEG ALONG THE

NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST BEFORE

22Z... DID NOT MEASURE ANY WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER... SATELLITE

IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN HONDURAS SUGGESTED WESTERLY

WINDS FARTHER SOUTH... SO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT THAT TIME. MORE RECENT IMAGERY

SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EDGED NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST

AT A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENT

IN THE COLDER INFRARED TOPS FARTHER NORTH... WITH THE TILTING

LIKELY CAUSED BY THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. ALSO ON ITS LAST LEG...

THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. 00Z

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE CURVED BANDING IN THE

MID-LEVELS ARE ONLY 30 KT... BUT A SHEAR PATTERN USING A MORE

SOUTHERN CENTER LOCATION YIELDS A STRONGER ESTIMATE. THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT MAINLY BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT

DATA... BUT IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS.

 

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING AN EXTRATROPICAL

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A

LITTLE MORE THAN TWO DAYS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE MODELS

ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT... HOWEVER... ON WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF GAMMA BY

THAT TIME. MOST OF THEM FORECAST A TRACK THAT SEEMS TOO FAR TO THE

WEST OVER YUCATAN AND TOO SLOW... GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW THAT WILL ALSO SHEAR THE SYSTEM AND FORCE

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE

CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT

FORECAST THE TRACK WELL FOR SHEARED SYSTEMS... AND THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE SHEAR IS

POINTED. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS... ONCE THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...

LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... KEEPS GAMMA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD

ALONG WITH THAT SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE MUCH

SLOWER IN FORECASTING RECURVATURE.

 

THE WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY GET STRONGER AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER

THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

THEREFORE... CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING... AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE SEEMS RATHER

UNLIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE GFDL NOW FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE

IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND PEAKS AT ABOUT 45 KT.

THE SHIPS IS SIMILAR BUT FORECASTS A DECLINE AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE

SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED

DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ANTICIPATING THE

POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL GAMMA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND

EVENTUALLY IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER

THE ATLANTIC.

 

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

 

We might get some squally weather, but that's about it. The system is very disorganized with little chance for strengthening before it gets caught up in the approaching front.

If this does hit us Monday do you think schools will be closed? I was listening to the radio yesterday and they said schools might be closed

sad as it is,, yeah they would have too

We might get some squally weather, but that's about it. The system is very disorganized with little chance for strengthening before it gets caught up in the approaching front.

 

 

I hear ya, but I also heard Don Noe say that we have nothing to worry about because Gamma would die.

 

This is so stressful.

 

 

 

If this does hit us Monday do you think schools will be closed? I was listening to the radio yesterday and they said schools might be closed

 

 

Miami-Dade County Public Schools

Tropical Storm Information

 

 

 

Friday, November 18th

 

 

At 4:00 p.m., Friday, November 18th, the National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Storm Gamma had formed in the western Caribbean Sea near the coast of Honduras. Maximum sustained winds are currently 40 MPH and rapid intensification is not anticipated.

 

The initial forecast track indicates that Gamma may affect South Florida on Monday, primarily as a rain event. District Emergency Management staff are in contact with the Miami-Dade Office of Emergency Management to determine the timing of any planned precautionary measures or public statements.

 

We will continue to monitor the progress of this storm and issue an update as needed.

 

There is nothing to indicate that schools will be closed Monday. I just went to the www.dadeschools.net website and there is no update as of now.

 

It's really a wait and see.

 

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. :blink:

 

My second thought is, "How do you make a turkey on a BBQ grille?" :mischief2

 

Oh Geez- I'm not ready for another one. The sad fact is that even, at best, if we get heavy rain and some wind, that could be all some of the homes need to topple more trees and cause more roof damage.

 

I don't think that anyone in South Florida will be able to get homeowner's insurance ever again. :confused

This is so much bulls***.

 

If we get hit by Gamma, and then trade Beckett, Delgado and Lo duca I might as well jump off the Bank of America building.

This is so much bulls***.

 

If we get hit by Gamma, and then trade Beckett, Delgado and Lo duca I might as well jump off the Bank of America building.

 

 

I'd want a quicker death. :confused

As much as I hate school, I really dont wanna miss anymore days (and then make them up).

 

WTF is up with these storms?? Ugh. :thumbdown

As much as I hate school, I really dont wanna miss anymore days (and then make them up).

 

WTF is up with these storms?? Ugh. :thumbdown

 

I agree.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONES KEEP YOUR SPINNY GAYNESS TO YOURSELF

KANX

As much as I hate school, I really dont wanna miss anymore days (and then make them up).

 

WTF is up with these storms?? Ugh. :thumbdown

 

I agree.

 

TROPICAL CYCLONES KEEP YOUR SPINNY GAYNESS TO YOURSELF

KANX

 

:lol :lol :lol

Guys... I have a confession to make...

 

I used the numbers 4 8 15 16 23 42 to win the lottery. :plain

 

 

 

i dont get it? :confused

I just heard Brian Norcross say Gamma now looks like it will not pose a threat to us. I hope this doesn't change! My main concern is the rain and what it can do to the many roofs out there that are now vulnerable.

Wow.

 

Will it ever end?

 

13 days left

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the season extends into December, though...

 

Anyway, I believe this would be the latest forming storm on record...I think? Wow, you really haven't been paying attention to tropical cyclones that long. Just a few years ago we had a two storms in December. Odette and Peter in 2003.

 

 

:thumbup :mischief

The track has shifted quite far south at the 4pm advisory.....