January 3, 200620 yr Why does everyone keep putting Cabrera batting 4th? Not to criticize that thought entirely, but it is more favorable to the team to have our best hitter batting 3rd in order to get him additional ABs throughout the season. That 1 extra AB per game could make a serious difference in some games. Also, I can't believe that Mitre was forgotten by some posters on here. The guy has some ability that makes him intriguing to watch. He could potentially be a SP with an ERA any from 3.00 to 3.85, which is very solid by today's standards. Hermida and Jacobs are lefties. I think a 2-3-4-5 is a R/L/R/L lock of Willingham, Hermida, Cabrera, Jacobs. Hermida is going to be really good. I don't see him as a huge liability batting 3rd even as a rookie. I think he will be the next Berkman or B. Giles type monster in a year or two. If Mitre posts a sub 4.00 era starting the whole year, I will freak out. He has never shown that ability thus far.
January 3, 200620 yr I think the Marlins will view innings pitched as the key stat to measure Mitre's benefit to the club this year
January 3, 200620 yr Olivo stinks!! and he may be the every day catcher LOL! Can you see those L's pile up??? :banghead
January 3, 200620 yr Put me in the group that thinks Olivo will put up solid numbers with every day ABs... I think he'll be a fine #6 hitter and contribute near 20 HRs.
January 3, 200620 yr Why does everyone keep putting Cabrera batting 4th? Not to criticize that thought entirely, but it is more favorable to the team to have our best hitter batting 3rd in order to get him additional ABs throughout the season. That 1 extra AB per game could make a serious difference in some games. Several reasons. Hermida 3rd would create a L-R-L 3-4-5 which can be beneficial in late inning situations where bullpen maneuvers have to be made. Hermida is more of an all around with more patience than Cabrera, so it's more likely that Hermida will be on base for Cabrera than Cabrera will be on base for Hermida Cabrera has more power than Hermida Hermida has more speed, and you'd prefer your #3 hitter to have some pop, some average, some patience, and some speed. Three's are supposed to be the total package at the plate. Cabrera has a history of being able to drive in runs while Hermida at this point is unproven at the Major League level in this regard, so better to have possibly three guys on for Cabrera instead of two.
January 3, 200620 yr So far I'm agreeing with almost everything 2003 and rferry have said concerning the rotation.
January 4, 200620 yr CF-Reed SS-Ramirez RF-Hermida 3B-Cabrera 1B-Jacobs LF-Willingham(yuck) 2B-Uggla C-Olivo Helms, Reese, Treanor, Harris, Stokes SP-Willis SP-Johnson SP-Olsen SP-Mitre(he is horrible, so I hope we trade him) SP-Vargas BP-Resop, Messenger, Kensing, Tankersly, Bowyer, Moehler, Borowski
January 4, 200620 yr CF-Reed SS-Ramirez RF-Hermida 3B-Cabrera 1B-Jacobs LF-Willingham(yuck) 2B-Uggla C-Olivo Helms, Reese, Treanor, Harris, Stokes SP-Willis SP-Johnson SP-Olsen SP-Mitre(he is horrible, so I hope we trade him) SP-Vargas BP-Resop, Messenger, Kensing, Tankersly, Bowyer, Moehler, Borowski you really are a master baiter
January 11, 200620 yr CF-Reed SS-Ramirez RF-Hermida 3B-Cabrera 1B-Jacobs LF-Willingham(yuck) 2B-Uggla C-Olivo Helms, Reese, Treanor, Harris, Stokes SP-Willis SP-Johnson SP-Olsen SP-Mitre(he is horrible, so I hope we trade him) SP-Vargas BP-Resop, Messenger, Kensing, Tankersly, Bowyer, Moehler, Borowski you really are a master baiter Not baiting at all. I have conceded Willingham might be good, but would not be suprised if he is nothing great. IMO, he was a college player that played against younger(sometimes much younger) competiton at every level, and had great success in the PCL, a hitters league, at Albaquerque, with an elevation that is near the tops of pro baseball. And, also IMO, his only time really shinig at the plate at the MLB level, was against other late season callups last season, once again older than the competition...hitting against pitchers just getting their feet wet. So he might be good and I'll eat my crow if he is, but I am betting on the opposite. Mitre, on the other hand, has had alot of time to prove he can pitch at the MLB level, and he has not done that. In fact, he has been pretty bad. He is a long reliever/spot starter at best, but I think he should have to earn a spot on the MLB roster, not just be there at the start due to experience, espicially when in that experience he has been really horrible. And dont say it is because he pitched at the friendly confines, he pitched better there than on the road.
January 11, 200620 yr I have conceded Willingham might be good, but would not be suprised if he is nothing great. IMO, he was a college player that played against younger(sometimes much younger) competiton at every level, and had great success in the PCL, a hitters league, at Albaquerque, with an elevation that is near the tops of pro baseball. And, also IMO, his only time really shinig at the plate at the MLB level, was against other late season callups last season, once again older than the competition...hitting against pitchers just getting their feet wet. So he might be good and I'll eat my crow if he is, but I am betting on the opposite. He wasn't. Right out of school, he was first assigned to short-season A ball where most college draftees and some of the more mature and highly touted high school talent go. He hit there. Then he was moved up to the next level - where again, there were college draftees and the more mature high school draftees in their second year. He hit there. Next year, next level, much of the same competition, destroyed them all in a what is considered the most pitching friendly league in the minors (Florida State League). Maybe if Willingham was a top draft pick or had someone pulling strings for him, he might have advanced sooner, but he wasn't and didn't, so he tore up wherever he was assigned. The only delay in his path to the majors was an injury in 2003, in his short time at Carolina - in yet another pitcher's league, the Southern League - when healthy he put up numbers you'd expect from a top prospect. Since then and only since then has he been playing against competition below his age, but the truth is throughout his professional career, very very few were ever in his league, talent-wise. You're just to stubborn to realize it. Hence you bring up the same tired argument based on half truths and observations only you agree with.
January 11, 200620 yr Willingham, surprisingly, hit most of his HR's on the road in the PCL last year.
January 13, 200620 yr Seriously, with the line-up the Marlins put together......which will be very weak......and possibly one of the worst bullpens I've ever seen....I really think the Marlins will be hard-pressed to win 60 games. Anyone that pitches to Cabrera is a fool, I think he'll be pitched to like Barry Bonds is.
January 13, 200620 yr Lineup and bullpen aren't going to be anyworse than they were this past year. 1-8, I could actually see us being a more productive team. Middle relief sucked last year, it likely won't be any worse this next year. As far as I can see, there are only two dropoffs from last season: rotation and closer. I only have 2 concerns for '06: who steps into the rotation, and who stays healthy. The team should avoid 100 loses, and I could see a .500 season if Olsen can stay healthy and Borowski enjoys the closer renaissance that it seems happens down here.
January 13, 200620 yr C Olivo LoDuca 1B Jacobs Delgado 2B Reese/Uggla Castillo SS Ramirez Gonzalez 3B Cabrera Lowell LF Willingham Cabrera CF Reed/Aguila Pierre RF Hermida Encarnacion No chance the Marlins line-up will be as good as last years. .500, are you nuts? Every team in the division is way better than the Marlins.....that's 76 games that the Marlins will be lucky to win 1/3 of.
January 13, 200620 yr C Olivo LoDuca 1B Jacobs Delgado 2B Reese/Uggla Castillo SS Ramirez Gonzalez 3B Cabrera Lowell LF Willingham Cabrera CF Reed/Aguila Pierre RF Hermida Encarnacion No chance the Marlins line-up will be as good as last years. .500, are you nuts? Every team in the division is way better than the Marlins.....that's 76 games that the Marlins will be lucky to win 1/3 of. And of those 2005 Marlins, only Delgado, Castillo and Cabrera lived up to expectations. Indulge me: 2005 production: C-LoDuca: .283, 6/57 1B-Delgado: .301 33/115 2B-Castillo: .301 4/30 (72 Runs, 10 SB) SS-Gonzalez: .264 5/45 3B-Lowell: .236 8/58 LF-Cabrera: .323 33/116 CF-Pierre: .276 2/47 (96 Runs, 57 SB) RF-Encarnacion: .287 16/76 Totals 107 HR, 544 RBI (unbelievable, really). And, the bench combined to hit 18 HR's, and only Conine and Harris were players with regular AB's who finished above .300. For the sake of argument, assume that Willingham becomes the left-fielder, not catcher, and we simply stick Reed in CF, not Aguila, making Olivo the starting catcher and Reed the leadoff hitter. As I see it, Cabrera's production remains (for the sake of argument) unchanged. Encarnacion, Lowell and Delgado combined for 57 HR's, Hermida, Willingham and Jacobs could combine for 60. Even as badly as Olivo sucked last year in limited P.T. he still hit 9 HR's to LoDuca's 6, and drove in 34 in only 90 games, as a part time player. Depending on where we go with the second base position (Uggla/Pokey) either the offensive production from Castillo (Uggla) or defense (Reese) will be addressed, but the top of the lineup threat will likely not exist. Castillo represents a substantial loss, especially given the dearth of leadoff hitters on the 2006 team, but Hanley Ramirez or Josh Willingham should provide an equally versatile threat in the 2-hole. Gonzalez' 5/45 production should be easily replaceable by Hanley Ramirez, who will also feature more speed on the basepaths than Sea Bass, offsetting the departure of Luis' speed numbers. Thus leaving the biggest dropoff as Pierre's 96 runs and 57 steals (as well as reputation on the basepaths creating more fastballs for batters). That's it, the biggest hole to fill is Juan Pierre who is viewed by many as a replaceable, flawed player. Luis was the only true defensive standout to depart, and getting Cabrera out of the outfield and into third-base increases team defense as a whole. If Ramirez is as spectacular as advertised (defensively, he's supposedly been major league ready since 2004) he can offset the loss of Alex both in the field and at the plate with ease. So, 1-8, I see no reason to expect a "fall off the cliff" dropoff from the team, and if Hermida, Willingham and Jacobs really tear the cover off the ball, and Olivo turns into a .270 hitter with double digit homeruns, the offense could actually be better as a unit than it was in 2005. So, if the 2005 team could win 83 games, 70-75 seems reasonable, and if the guys overachieve and/or get a speedy leadoff option like Gathright without paying an arm and a leg, .500 is a real possibility.
January 13, 200620 yr Great post Swifty :thumbup The engine that pulls the train in '06 has to be how effectively our leadoff batters get on base. Any hope for Cabrera repeating his 2005 production numbers or Hermida and Jacobs to blossum will depend directly on how adept the guys are in front of them are at giving them something to work with. I'm assuming Cabrera bats fourth, although a cogent argument for him batting third certainly exists. I think Hermida bats third, Jacobs (probably) fifth, but the the two guys at the top of the lineup remain a mystery. Chris Aguila is fast as hell. Anyone who has seen him get down the line at PPS knows that. The question is will he play himself into or out of a job in spring training and if it's the former, can he sustain it over a 162 game season? Potentially (read, maybe) he's the guy, but a month and a half before ST starts who the heck knows. Maybe Reed surprises but I doubt it. So I guess school is out on whether we have the guy(s) at the top of the lineup who can get things started (I'm not anti-Reed or Aguila or fillintheblank, whoever people here see batting 1-2). Without hesitation I'm in the camp that says make a deal with Tampa Bay for Gathright (anyone, short of trading Olsen or Petit) even if it means either getting a third team involved one way or the other (three-way trade OR acquiring a player the Rays want). Not doubt this missive will be followed with the usual Gathright "sucks" posts but until someone can point to a cheaper, better alternative, I'll take him and build from there. An alternative MIGHT be to go get Gomes, play him in right, shift Hermida to center and have him lead-off. A lineup of Hermida, Willingham, Cabrera, Gomes and Jacobs, has the potential to get us back into contention perhaps faster than any I can think of within our financial constraints.
January 13, 200620 yr TSwift, nice work. I gotta agree completely. The only losses from last year's team that, to me, seem very difficult to replace offensively are Delgado and Louie. It's hard to imagine anyone on this current team coming close to that kind of production (although something could be said about having a second baseman not being injured all the time). The good news is we have the potential to improve in every other position. I have confidence that this team will outperform expectations offensively. 2003, I agree with you also. I say we trade for Joey... give up anyone not named Olsen or Petit. I'd even be willing to give up Olsen if we also got a nice bullpen arm in return or a minor league position prospect. If we don't get him, I am not at all uncomfortable with having Aguila playing CF for us. I think he's very fast, plays above average defense, and can hit if given the opportunity. Dude's got some pop. The only thing I am concerned about is his OBP - it's not very high. He doesn't take enough walks. If he could post an OBP of about .350 I would be happy enough.
January 13, 200620 yr I'm not opposed to trading for Gathright, but I do question just how much baseball talent he actually has and if we can come to terms with a reasonable price with Tampa for his services.
January 13, 200620 yr TSwift, nice work. I gotta agree completely. The only losses from last year's team that, to me, seem very difficult to replace offensively are Delgado and Louie. It's hard to imagine anyone on this current team coming close to that kind of production (although something could be said about having a second baseman not being injured all the time). The good news is we have the potential to improve in every other position. I have confidence that this team will outperform expectations offensively. 2003, I agree with you also. I say we trade for Joey... give up anyone not named Olsen or Petit. I'd even be willing to give up Olsen if we also got a nice bullpen arm in return or a minor league position prospect. If we don't get him, I am not at all uncomfortable with having Aguila playing CF for us. I think he's very fast, plays above average defense, and can hit if given the opportunity. Dude's got some pop. The only thing I am concerned about is his OBP - it's not very high. He doesn't take enough walks. If he could post an OBP of about .350 I would be happy enough. ditto for TSwift. & I agree on Aguila as well. Always wanted to see a little more opportunities for him. He's got a nice swing and plays solid defense. He could certainly steal a few bases too, just not sure if his average & obp would be high enough. I don't think his walks are likely to increase a ton, but if can hit around .270 I'd take it. I hope he gets a shot at least.
January 13, 200620 yr I suspect this was written a week or so earlier. If you notice, Olivo, Helms, Lightenberg and Reese are not even mentioned. and Josh Wilson isnt with the team anymore, im i right?
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