The Marlins pulled another Connie Mack this winter, dumping most of their high-paid players in exchange for prospects, most of whom were close to the majors and could be expected to contribute in 2006 or 2007. After a 40-game tuneup to start the year, the Marlins started clicking, going 18-6 in their last 24 games, capped by a sweep of one of the top run-scoring teams in baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays.

 

While the Marlins have run a slew of rookies out there this year, here are six who've made major contributions to their recent surge and who are all good reasons why I think the Marlins are building another World Series contender.

 

In the long-term, this is the guy who will anchor the Marlins' next playoff rotation. A tall left-hander with a high three-quarter delivery, Olsen gets tremendous movement on his 91-94 mph fastball, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He pairs the heater with an 81-84 mph slider that has good tilt, and he alters its shape depending on the hitter, sweeping it away from left-handers, but tightening it and working the outer half with it against right-handers. He does need a second pitch he can throw inside to a right-handed batter; anything he's throwing middle-in must be a fastball, resulting in a sizable platoon split for Olsen this year (.276 vs. righties; .159 vs. lefties). But the one-two punch and the command of his fastball, added to the fact that he looks like he still has some filling out to do, make him one of the most promising young starters on any team this year.

 

Johnson has received the publicity for his sparkling 2.01 ERA and string of starts against former Cy Young Award winners, but he's the least promising of the three starters here, whether he's viewed through a scouting lens or a performance analysis one. Johnson has a medium-wiry build and a typical three-quarter delivery with good follow-through, and his repertoire is solid: a four-seamer that runs up to 93 mph, a two-seamer at 91-91 with good arm-side run but no sink, and a slider that Johnson throws with different shapes, often tightening it to use like a cutter. His fastball command is below average, although he has better command of his slider, while his control is obviously quite poor. He uses his slider as a weapon to get left-handed batters out, but I think he needs a third pitch to be more effective against them. In the end, he'll end up a reliever, probably in a setup or other late-inning role.

 

Although Johnson has received the hype, Nolasco is the most advanced of the Marlins' three rookie starters. He's been a favorite of mine since the Cubs left him exposed to the 2004 Rule 5 Draft, when he wasn't selected. Nolasco has two solid-average pitches, an 89-93 mph fastball with good life and a 72-78 mph 12-to-6 curveball with tight rotation, and good command of both, although he occasionally misses high with the curve. He rarely uses his changeup, but he maintains his arm speed well, making it potentially an average pitch, with a little arm-side run when it's on. Nolasco's primary advantage over Olsen, Johnson, and the other young Marlin arms is his control; Nolasco never exceeded 49 walks in any of his three full minor-league seasons, and he continues to do a good job of keeping himself out of hitters' counts. He doesn't have Olsen's upside, but he should develop into at least a No. 3 starter, with a shot at No. 2 if he can pitch more at the upper end of his velocity range.

 

Ramirez, once the apple of Red Sox Nation's eye (thanks in no small part to the organization's endless hyping of him), has cooled off after a hot start that had him threatening to run away with the NL Rookie of the Year award. He's a five-tool player who has three tools that play now -- he's a plus runner with good baserunning instincts, he can throw, and he has good range at short -- but whose bat and power only show up intermittently. Ramirez sometimes plays a bit out of control, making the flashy play at short but overplaying routine balls, and switching from good patience to overaggressiveness at the plate within an at-bat. He also starts with his hands out and up a bit, so that his first move tends to be down; he wastes a little bit of his bat speed trying to clear his initial position. In Ramirez's defense, he jumped to the big leagues directly from AA despite a so-so season with Portland in 2005, so we're seeing a lot of adjustments most prospects get to make during a season in AAA.

 

Uggla was a surprise choice to be the Marlins' regular second baseman this spring. He was an unheralded minor-leaguer in the Diamondbacks' system when Florida selected him in last winter's Rule 5 Draft. Uggla has surprising power for a smaller guy. Despite a small bat waggle before he comes set, he has a closed stance that lets him drop the head of the bat easily on pitches middle-in, giving him good pull power. Nine of his 12 homers this year have been hit to left or left-center. He's also a good defensive second baseman, with plus range to his left and good hands, and he pivots well on the double play.

 

Hermida missed time earlier this spring with a hip flexor injury, but he's been productive since his May 23 return (.267/.345/.440), a date that coincides with the start of the Marlins' 24-game hot streak. One of the top prospects in baseball heading into 2006, Hermida has developed from a patient singles-and-doubles hitter into a legitimate power threat in right field who projects to post very high OBPs due to his outstanding plate discipline. He starts with his stance slightly open, but closes early, and his quick bat means he can let the ball travel a little deeper before he has to commit. He has good power to all fields, although he's still learning to turn on pitches middle-in, which ultimately will be where he produces the most power. Although Hanley has the better package of tools, Hermida will be the more productive hitter over the next five years.

 

Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.

wow he's so off on Johnson it's sickening

i can't picture johnson being a SU man. good article though, he had some good things to say about Olsen and Nolasco..

nice compliment

I'm shocked on his take on Johnson. The guy has matched up with number 1 starters for the past month and has faired very well. I have to disagree with him on Johnson, plus he said he had a medium-wiry build. The guy is not medium-wiry he's huge

Not well researched.

 

Johnson all wrong.

 

Uggla has a markedly "open" stance.

Johnson's control could stand some improvement, but what the writer failed to raise at all is Johnson's excellent ability to keep his pitches down and produce ground balls.

 

Hitters are slugging just .287 against Johnson, which is really remarkable. The next lowest starter in the majors is Derek Lowe with .313. Guys like Brandon Webb are almost 100 points higher than Johnson.

Atliest he gives good report on the type of pitches our pitcher like to throw.

Not well researched.

 

Johnson all wrong.

 

I don't know if it's all wrong. He is definitely exceeding expectations right now and when it comes down to it, I would still take Olsen first and Nolasco second if I had to choose between those three longterm. I think a lot of people here would do the same even if JJ's fan club is growing by the start. This doesn't mean I don't like Johnson, but I can understand this guys point of view somewhat. JJ is pretty wild. He's going to walk over 90 guys this year if he keeps getting this many innings. Not exactly a good number. He was lucky to only give up 1 run against Toronto, although can't discredit him for pitching out of those jams. (And before someone points out Olsen's BB rate which is equally as frustrating compared to guys like Nolasco and Willis, I'm going by instinct Olsen is going to keep up his post black eye performances which are much better).

 

What I disagree with is the idea he will be a relief pitcher longterm. With his excellent HR/9 (or slugging) and K rates, he can survive being a little wild with the walks and turn into a solid 3, great 4, type pitcher. I thought that was his ceiling coming into the season and not much has changed. He's still really young so maybe his control improves and starts showing top of the rotation potential. His May was fabulous (37 IP, 11 BB), but it's already trailing off in June (19 IP, 12 BB). We shall see. I expect JJ to have the biggest comdown of all three rookies, and that's not just because he's doing the best right now.

 

The real superstar is Dan Uggla. We knew these other guys were going to show flashes and have ridiculous ceilings because of youth, but this guy is playing absolutely retarded right now. He is such a missing piece and we got him for free. I'm continually amazed by him.

I told you guys we will start having national attention if we swept the Jays!

Not well researched.

 

Johnson all wrong.

 

I don't know if it's all wrong. He is definitely exceeding expectations right now and when it comes down to it, I would still take Olsen first and Nolasco second if I had to choose between those three longterm. I think a lot of people here would do the same even if JJ's fan club is growing by the start. This doesn't mean I don't like Johnson, but I can understand this guys point of view somewhat. JJ is pretty wild. He's going to walk over 90 guys this year if he keeps getting this many innings. Not exactly a good number. He was lucky to only give up 1 run against Toronto, although can't discredit him for pitching out of those jams. (And before someone points out Olsen's BB rate which is equally as frustrating compared to guys like Nolasco and Willis, I'm going by instinct Olsen is going to keep up his post black eye performances which are much better).

He may be exceeding the expectations of you and others outside of the organization, but Marlins scouts would beg to differ. Joe Frisaro wrote this in a March 14 article:

 

"In terms of his delivery, Johnson has arguably the cleanest windup of all the young pitchers in camp. And depending on which personnel evaluator you talk to, he is regarded as the top or second-best pitching prospect in the organization. Some scouts favor lefty Scott Olsen, while others like Johnson. Still others lean toward Anibal Sanchez, who has yet to pitch in a Grapefruit League game because of a tight shoulder."

 

http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/...t=.jsp&c_id=fla

 

What I disagree with is the idea he will be a relief pitcher longterm. With his excellent HR/9 (or slugging) and K rates, he can survive being a little wild with the walks and turn into a solid 3, great 4, type pitcher. I thought that was his ceiling coming into the season and not much has changed. He's still really young so maybe his control improves and starts showing top of the rotation potential. His May was fabulous (37 IP, 11 BB), but it's already trailing off in June (19 IP, 12 BB). We shall see. I expect JJ to have the biggest comdown of all three rookies, and that's not just because he's doing the best right now.

 

 

He has done nothing but continue to show that his potential ceiling is that of a number one or two pitcher since being given the chance to start. I am suprised you are continuing to make the argument that JJ's ceiling is as a number 3 or 4 despite what he has done. As far as having the biggest comedown, JJ has the build and strength to pitch stronger longer into the season than the other young pitchers.

Uggla really is a legit superstar if he just HANGS around what he's doing now. That's just so incredible.

I don't see how anyone can be so critical of the NL ERA leader. He may not keep up his current pace, but he is showing that he belongs in the rotation of any team in the league. He isn't dominant with his stuff, but it's good enough and he is showing he knows how to do what he needs to get the job done.