August 1, 200619 yr Nothing official yet, but NRL has officially change Invest. 99L to 03 NONAME. We might have to worry about it here in South FL. I will keep you all updated as I see fit.
August 1, 200619 yr I would assume this is the wave that had the best chance of becoming a depression. This is from the tropical atlantic outlook from 5:30 today, and will be updated in the next hour or two: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS... LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/312116.shtml
August 1, 200619 yr It is a depression as of 11pm, but all global models have the system dissipating. The NHC forecast has it dissipated in 96 hours before it approaches the Bahamas.
August 1, 200619 yr Author I don't neccesarily believe that prog. I think we will see Chris out of this. The low has been quite tenacious so I am willing to believe that the shear will relax as has been discussed with some mets I chat with on another board.
August 1, 200619 yr I don't neccesarily believe that prog. I think we will see Chris out of this. The low has been quite tenacious so I am willing to believe that the shear will relax as has been discussed with some mets I chat with on another board. You speak met like Neo speaks Matrix.
August 1, 200619 yr D'OH! i stocked up on quite a number of books this summer. bring on the storms! :cool
August 1, 200619 yr http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/01/trop...r.ap/index.html cnn article on it, if it helps anyone. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/01/trop...r.ap/index.html cnn article on it, if it helps anyone.
August 1, 200619 yr Last night they were saying there was no chance it won't dissipate. But it's heading right toward us!
August 1, 200619 yr When are they expecting it to hit Florida (If it does)? Weekendish I would guess Saturday or Sunday?
August 1, 200619 yr When are they expecting it to hit Florida (If it does)? I'd say late Sunday, early Monday.
August 1, 200619 yr Just a little weekend blow, good time to go sailing if it even holds together. Gale force winds and rain? I'll take it over storm surge anyday, hope it goes north of the Keys, way north for my fellow South Floridians
August 1, 200619 yr It is still far away, anything can happen to it--from strengthening to going off the projected path or dissipating. Lets hope it does the last one for everyone's sake.
August 1, 200619 yr Remember we keep http://www.hurricanewarning.blogspot.com/ updated with the latest advisories, maps, and images.
August 1, 200619 yr :plaindance Just in time for my birthday. So.. are you and Chris buddies or somethin? I mean, thats cool and all, but you shouldn't have invited him.. >_>
August 1, 200619 yr Author Right now, I am leaning with some of the mets that I talk to regularly on another board. I think that Chris will start strengthening within 24-48 hours. In fact, recon came in a little while ago and this is the report: Storm CHRIS: Observed by AF #303 Storm #03 In Atlantic Ocean Total Flights For Storm #03: 01 Date/Time of Recon Report: August 01, 2006 18:50:50 Zulu Position Of The Center: 17 ? 39 ' N 060 ? 43 ' W (17.65? N 60.72? W) Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters) Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 55 Knots (63.25 MPH) Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 010 Nautical Miles (11.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 128? Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 053 Knots (60.95 MPH) From 179? Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 010 Nautical Miles (11.5 Miles) From Center At Bearing 128? Minimum Pressure: extrap 1007 Millibars (29.735 Inches) Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 23?C (73.4?F) / 298 Meters Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 25?C (77?F) / 301 Meters Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 25?C (77?F) / NA?C (NA?F) Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles Other Information: 1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 53 KT SE Quadrant at 18:47:40 Z 2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT In bold are the important parts. 53 knots at that flight level corresponds to winds of about 45-50 mph at the surface. It is strengthening slowly.
August 1, 200619 yr Just a little weekend blow, good time to go sailing if it even holds together. Gale force winds and rain? I'll take it over storm surge anyday, hope it goes north of the Keys, way north for my fellow South Floridians Please send it to N. Orlando we are 12" down and really dry!
August 1, 200619 yr Author Chris up to 45 mph, track shifted southward... But I am not buying that until the next set of model runs come in.
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