You are using inexperience as a detriment and I'm curious whether or not you would have used that argument in '97 or 2003.

 

I'm just not suprised you would still be downing the Mets when you were downing them since the pre-season, I'd doubt you'd change now and it's not that suprising. I don't know what planet you are from but I'd never take that as a 'personal insult. '

I really dont think it matters if the Mets lineup is "green" for the most part. And I also happen to think Cliff and Shawn are big bats of consequence. If they hit the ball, that team could be tought to beat

You are using inexperience as a detriment and I'm curious whether or not you would have used that argument in '97 or 2003.

 

I'm just not suprised you would still be downing the Mets when you were downing them since the pre-season, i'd doubt you'd change now and it's not that suprising. I don't know what planet you are from but I'd never take that as a 'personal insult. '

 

 

In 2003 I didn't expect us to beat the Giants since we couldn't handle them all year, once that was done with I didn't expect us to beat the Cubs, after that I felt we could do anything.

 

In 1997 I thought that we had enough of a collection of talented guys that hadn't been there (Sheffield, Alou, Renteria, Brown) and the right mix of guys who had been there (Leiter, Daulton, Eisenreich).

 

The difference in all three teams, of course, is pitching. I never count out a team in the post-season that's built around pitching, never.

 

The only time I ever truly thought in our entire post-season history that the Marlins were not the "pitching favorite" were our two NLCS's against the Braves and then Cubs, but as we saw, curses jinxes and choking go a long way.

 

The Mets will be starting a not so good rookie in John Maine, two veterans who will be lucky to take you to the 7th in Hernandez and Trachsel and another guy who despite all his experience in the post season has a losing record on pretty good Braves teams in Glavine. For Glavine, the only year he came up huge (1995) was also the only year he had a winning record in the post season (2-0), and he won a WS MVP award because of those two wins. In his most recent foray into the playoffs, Glavine's 0-2 with a 15 ERA. Not 1.5 15.

 

So, to recap:

 

1) Comparing the Marlins inexperience to the Mets inexperience is not a valid comparison as the Marlins were built around pitching both times, and in 1997 (to me, the most reasonable comparison of the 2 Marlins teams to the 2006 Mets given the collection of veterans) our pitching staff featured 3 legit aces, 2 in their primes and one of whom had post-season experience (Leiter) on a World Series champion.

 

2) The Mets are following a flawed formula. Offense wins in the regular season, pitching and especially power pitching wins in October. Just look at the last three World Series champions, they all had substantially better pitching than the other team, and in 2003 it was a coin-flip on the rotations but the power arms of Florida (Penny, Beckett) proved the difference. When you've got a staff of four guys who struggle to top 90 (sorry, not in the age column El Duque) that's not power.

 

Finally, the Mets are basing their entire expectation of success on what they once were. They've fallen apart lately (losing is one thing, but getting flat out embarassed is another) and last I heard have seen monstrous struggles from Wright at home and post-all-star break. Go ahead and pick that team, but the only staff among playoff teams they can make a case for having a better staff than are the Cardinals, and it's not even a given that the Cards will make the playoffs.

 

Peavy, Young, Wells > Hernandez, Glavine, Trachsel/Maine

Maddux, Penny, Lowe, Billingsly > Hernandez, Glavine, Trachsel/Maine

Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte > Hernandez, Glavine, Trachsel/Maine

 

See a pattern?

Very good post, and why we need a rep system on this board.

 

Just a few things, Wright is having a .370/.429/.531 September.

 

Padres shouldn't be counted as a definite though. Wells is having another Gout problem and while Peavy has been very good the last 4-5 weeks, he was still pretty bad throughout the season. But I don't disagree that the Mets would have the worst rotation of the 4 in the postseason.

One more thing I forgot to mention above.

 

The Mets also have to be at a tremendous disadvantage because of the type of guys they trot out are all basically the same "changeup away, changeup away, curveball in the dirt...fastball in!" kind of pitcher.

 

The only difference is the handedness sandwhiching Glavine between Hernandez and Trachsel.

 

If you don't give teams different looks (as the Padres, Dodgers and Astros will) you're also running the big time risk of letting their offense get into a groove.

 

Again, let's look at the most recent NL Champion Astros:

 

Oswalt-pure gas

Pettitte-lefty, cutters, changes and curves

Clemens-splitters and heat

Backe-softer, changes and curves

 

Much different looks. All four pitchers on the Mets feature the same "out pitch" IE changeup. All four sit at the same velocity. None of the four are tremendous at holding runners (except Trachsel because he just bores them to death).

 

That's my analysis. Sorry to seem like I'm piling on, but I just hate it when people think my arguments don't have a leg to stand on, rarely do I ever take a position, just because.

 

PS: As far as the Mets regular season prediction I made, that was predicated on Beltran not returning to form, their bullpen being a one and a half arm show and the Mets sticking with Matsui. If you had told me that Kaz would be shipped out, that Wagner would stay healthy and they'd add talent that performs, and that Beltran would actually outproduce Juan Encarnacion (like he was unable to last season) I'd have put them in the playoffs, but with the same caveat as before.

Mets aren't doing anything this postseason

that Zito for Milledge deal would have been kind of useful

 

I doubt that was ever realistically on the table.

 

 

well they were going after him, and all I know is that they could definately use him right now. Going into the playoffs with a pitching staff that includes Trachsel as your 3 starter isnt something to be happy about.

Good to see there pitching staff take a big blow

1) Pedro hasn't pitched well since May. We won 70+ games without him.

 

2) Our bullpen is the best in the majors. And if the Yankees proved anything, it's that a good pen and a strong O can carry you.

 

3) The rest of NL sucks. Really bad,

 

4) You all are haters. Enjoy watching us play games that actually mean something. :|

1) Pedro hasn't pitched well since May. We won 70+ games without him.

 

2) Our bullpen is the best in the majors. And if the Yankees proved anything, it's that a good pen and a strong O can carry you.

 

3) The rest of NL sucks. Really bad,

 

4) You all are haters. Enjoy watching us play games that actually mean something. :|

 

 

yes that is all fun and it got the mets this far, but you need starting pitching to win in the playoffs..

 

el duque, glavine, trachsel, and maine?

 

wow

1) Pedro hasn't pitched well since May. We won 70+ games without him.

 

2) Our bullpen is the best in the majors. And if the Yankees proved anything, it's that a good pen and a strong O can carry you.

 

3) The rest of NL sucks. Really bad,

 

4) You all are haters. Enjoy watching us play games that actually mean something. :|

 

 

yes that is all fun and it got the mets this far, but you need starting pitching to win in the playoffs..

 

el duque, glavine, trachsel, and maine?

 

wow

 

Outside of the Astros if they even make it, what other team has a great rotation? Detroit, maybe? The rest is pretty brutal as well.

1) Pedro hasn't pitched well since May. We won 70+ games without him.

 

2) Our bullpen is the best in the majors. And if the Yankees proved anything, it's that a good pen and a strong O can carry you.

 

3) The rest of NL sucks. Really bad,

 

4) You all are haters. Enjoy watching us play games that actually mean something. :|

 

 

yes that is all fun and it got the mets this far, but you need starting pitching to win in the playoffs..

 

el duque, glavine, trachsel, and maine?

 

wow

 

Outside of the Astros if they even make it, what other team has a great rotation? Detroit, maybe? The rest is pretty brutal as well.

 

i would take my chances with these rotations before the mets:

 

Peavy, Young, Wells, Williams

 

Penny, Lowe, Maddux, Billingsly

 

Santana, Radke, Garza, Bonser

 

Zito, Harden, Loaiza, Haren/Blanton

 

Bonderman, Rogers, Verlander, Ledezma

Only a Mets fan could turn something like a season ending injury for Pedro into a GOOD thing.

 

 

lol

What do you want him to say? "f*** it the season's over."

 

Of course not. It obviously isn't a good thing, but the Mets have won an awful lot of games without him and last time I checked they have a damn good offense. While I tend to agree with TSwift here, that pitching will win in the post season, the NL is simply awful this year. The only team that could throw them off is the Dodgers IMO. Unless EVERYONE on the offense goes cold they still should be the favorites to win the NL.

 

Once they get to the series it's a whole different story because I'd probably take three of the four AL teams over anyone in the NL.

 

That said I hope the Mets go out in the first round :thumbup

4) You all are haters. Enjoy watching us play games that actually mean something. :|

 

 

You have no idea the kind of pleasure watching the Mets is going to bring me. :thumbup

Your great bullpen better be ready when your starters only go 4 or 5.

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Just lame to be mouthing off to the team with the best record in the NL, doesn't make much sense to me.

 

Analyzing and predicting is one thing, talking down is another.

Just lame to be mouthing off to the team with the best record in the NL, doesn't make much sense to me.

 

Analyzing and predicting is one thing, talking down is another.

 

 

Have I done the latter unprovoked at all?

Just lame to be mouthing off to the team with the best record in the NL, doesn't make much sense to me.

 

Analyzing and predicting is one thing, talking down is another.

 

 

Have I done the latter unprovoked at all?

Was I even referring to you?

 

It's not always about the Swift.

Only a Mets fan could turn something like a season ending injury for Pedro into a GOOD thing.

 

 

lol

 

 

Maybe because Met fans have been watching their team the entire year and realize Pedro has not done a thing for them since May (even in May, he had 0, yeah, that is right, ZERO wins). Maybe because Met fans just watched three crappy Pedro starts back-to-back-to-back and realize there is no way he could possibly help the team in the postseason with the way he was pitching.

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs.

Only a Mets fan could turn something like a season ending injury for Pedro into a GOOD thing.

 

 

lol

 

 

Maybe because Met fans have been watching their team the entire year and realize Pedro has not done a thing for them since May (even in May, he had 0, yeah, that is right, ZERO wins). Maybe because Met fans just watched three crappy Pedro starts back-to-back-to-back and realize there is no way he could possibly help the team in the postseason with the way he was pitching.

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

And has that same Mets fan been watching the last ten days?

 

Or thought about how Philly could have closed the gap if Pedro's 9 wins were not there for that hot-start April...

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