July 23, 200818 yr This was started to get talked about in the Fuentes thread but I think it deserves it's own thread so... As stated before, one of the biggest problems with this current team is how many players are arbitration eligible next season (Atleast 19), which will greatly inflate our 21m payroll. Just doing rough estimations of what the players will make, when compared to what players in the past have made, it comes around to 50m. There's still a lot of baseball to be played, so a lot can happen between now and then. Loria took over our team prior to the 2002 season. Our payroll was just under 42m that season, and for the next 3 seasons it would hover in that range. In 2005, it beefed up all the way to 60m. However, that payroll was too much for our market share, and so then the firesale came. But basically, what I'm getting at, is that next season we could actually see a payroll in the mid 40 range, compared to the 15-30m we've been subjected to the past three seasons. If that's true, we can easily cut a few losses that we can easily replace (i.e. Mike Jacobs [Dallas, Gaby Sanchez], Josh Willingham [John Raynor, Cameron Maybin], Scott Olsen [Lots haha]), putting our payroll in that range. If we're subjected to another sub-30m season, this team is going to be blown up again, but based off the past, expecially if we manage to make teh playoffs (hello playoff revenue), it's very likely we could see a mid-40 payroll next season, allowing for only a few players needed to be traded, but the ability to keep the likes of Dan Uggla and such. (for reference, he's the list posted from the previous thread) ) Kevin Gregg (Estimation: A LOT, going to be 5th service year, and at which point he can be compared to FAs, if he keeps his ERA low could be as high as 5m+, but probably around 4m) 2) Sergio Mitre (Estimation: ~1.5m, 2nd arb year) 3) Alfredo Amezaga (Estimation: ~1.5-2m, 2nd arb year) 4) Justin Miller (Estimation: ~1-1.2m, 2nd arb year) 5) Matt Treanor (Estimation: ~1m, 2nd arb year) 6) Jorge Cantu (Estimation: 3-4m?, first time actually going to arbitration, although he'll have 4 years of service time after the year) 7) Dallas McPherson (Estmation: 700k-1m, first time going to arbitration although like Cantu, he would have been eligible last year but was non-tendered) 8) Dan Uggla (Estimation: at this pace, like 8m haha) 9) Doug waechter (Estimation: ~1m) 10) Scott Olsen (Estimation: ~2-3m) 11) Josh Willingham (Estiomation: 3-4m) 12) Jeremy Hermida (Estiomation: 2-3m) 13) Mike Jacobs (Estimation: 2-3m) 14) Josh Johnson (estimation: 2-3m) 15) Logan Kensing (estimation: 700k-1m) 16) Joe Nelson (estimation: 700k-1m) 17) Cody ROss (estimation: 2-3m) Possible Super 2's (Can't be positive on these) 18) Ricky Nolsaco (EXTREMELY likely, estimation: 3m) 19) Taylor Tankersley (Very very likely, estimation: 1m) forgot he's spending most of the years in the minors 20) Renyel Pinto (He's at 83 days, so I'm unsure, but if he is, probably 1.2-1.5m) 21) Lee Gardner (very Iffy, estimation: 700k, probably just non tender him if he is) Contracts: Andrew Miller (Unsure exact amount, but probably somewhere between 1.32-1.35m) Hanley Ramirez (5.5m) Plus Helms Buyout: 750k That's around 50m right there, then you have to add players making the minimum (A few more M)
July 23, 200818 yr This was started to get talked about in the Fuentes thread but I think it deserves it's own thread so... As stated before, one of the biggest problems with this current team is how many players are arbitration eligible next season (Atleast 19), which will greatly inflate our 21m payroll. Just doing rough estimations of what the players will make, when compared to what players in the past have made, it comes around to 50m. There's still a lot of baseball to be played, so a lot can happen between now and then. Loria took over our team prior to the 2002 season. Our payroll was just under 42m that season, and for the next 3 seasons it would hover in that range. In 2005, it beefed up all the way to 60m. However, that payroll was too much for our market share, and so then the firesale came. But basically, what I'm getting at, is that next season we could actually see a payroll in the mid 40 range, compared to the 15-30m we've been subjected to the past three seasons. If that's true, we can easily cut a few losses that we can easily replace (i.e. Mike Jacobs [Dallas, Gaby Sanchez], Josh Willingham [John Raynor, Cameron Maybin], Scott Olsen [Lots haha]), putting our payroll in that range. If we're subjected to another sub-30m season, this team is going to be blown up again, but based off the past, expecially if we manage to make teh playoffs (hello playoff revenue), it's very likely we could see a mid-40 payroll next season, allowing for only a few players needed to be traded, but the ability to keep the likes of Dan Uggla and such. (for reference, he's the list posted from the previous thread) ) Kevin Gregg (Estimation: A LOT, going to be 5th service year, and at which point he can be compared to FAs, if he keeps his ERA low could be as high as 5m+, but probably around 4m) 2) Sergio Mitre (Estimation: ~1.5m, 2nd arb year) 3) Alfredo Amezaga (Estimation: ~1.5-2m, 2nd arb year) 4) Justin Miller (Estimation: ~1-1.2m, 2nd arb year) 5) Matt Treanor (Estimation: ~1m, 2nd arb year) 6) Jorge Cantu (Estimation: 3-4m?, first time actually going to arbitration, although he'll have 4 years of service time after the year) 7) Dallas McPherson (Estmation: 700k-1m, first time going to arbitration although like Cantu, he would have been eligible last year but was non-tendered) 8) Dan Uggla (Estimation: at this pace, like 8m haha) 9) Doug waechter (Estimation: ~1m) 10) Scott Olsen (Estimation: ~2-3m) 11) Josh Willingham (Estiomation: 3-4m) 12) Jeremy Hermida (Estiomation: 2-3m) 13) Mike Jacobs (Estimation: 2-3m) 14) Josh Johnson (estimation: 2-3m) 15) Logan Kensing (estimation: 700k-1m) 16) Joe Nelson (estimation: 700k-1m) 17) Cody ROss (estimation: 2-3m) Possible Super 2's (Can't be positive on these) 18) Ricky Nolsaco (EXTREMELY likely, estimation: 3m) 19) Taylor Tankersley (Very very likely, estimation: 1m) 20) Renyel Pinto (He's at 83 days, so I'm unsure, but if he is, probably 1.2-1.5m) 21) Lee Gardner (very Iffy, estimation: 700k, probably just non tender him if he is) Contracts: Andrew Miller (Unsure exact amount, but probably somewhere between 1.32-1.35m) Hanley Ramirez (5.5m) Plus Helms Buyout: 750k That's around 50m right there, then you have to add players making the minimum (A few more M) that's not the marlin way, Uggla may and will most likely be traded because he will ask for too much money, Gregg and Hendy are gone, Helms is just a loan and will be gone next year, Jacobs I believe will be traded, there is no way to keep EVERYONE around, but there will be a solid core around some minor league call ups.
July 23, 200818 yr I'm 60% sure that Mitre is being non-tendered. I'm 100% sure that Mitre is being non-tendered.
July 23, 200818 yr I'm 60% sure that Mitre is being non-tendered. I'm 100% sure that Mitre is being non-tendered. I'm never 100% sure of a damned thing.
July 23, 200818 yr I think we can keep the core intact but don't think we can keep everybody nor do I want them to. Guys who can IMO: Williangham, Jacobs, J.Miller, Gardner, Olsen 2009 team C Baker/Treanor/ trade 1B Cantu/G. Sanchez 2B Uggla/Coughlan 3B McPherson/Uggla SS Ramirez LF Raynor/Ross CF Maybin/Ross RF Hermida Starters 5 (in no order) Johnson Noalsco Miller Sanchez Voldstad Bullpen (this is the most difficult to predict) Gregg Pinto Tucker ?? ?? ?? I think we can have a pretty sexy team for 33-40 mil or maybe even slightly less.
July 23, 200818 yr Author You're probably looking at $60 million. I really doubt it'll be that high, players don't normally make that muh in their first year of arbitration unless their Ryan Howard-like, and for us, that'd have only been Hanley (signed) and Uggla (can he keep up on this pace?)
July 23, 200818 yr I'm not sure *you* want to keep "the team" together. Plus payroll right now is slightly over $30 million when you count Delgado, etc. But just for conversation sake, absent Delgado's $$, trade Gregg in the off-season, say goodbye to Hendrickson and possibly Gonzo, get rid of one of the three - Willingham, Jacobs, Hermida - and you can pretty much bring a competitive roster for under $40 million and maybe $35-36 mil. The Kensings, Tankersleys, J. Millers, will weed themselves out as will others. Wholesale cuts really aren't needed for another year. The big question mark is what the Marlins will do in light of today's court ruling. Besides no heavy lifting on our part, Admin and Mike will take care of it all. We can just sit back and watch.
July 23, 200818 yr 2009 team C Baker/Treanor/ trade 1B Cantu/G. Sanchez 2B Uggla/Coughlan 3B McPherson/Uggla SS Ramirez LF Raynor/Ross CF Maybin/Ross I think we should have a RF, no?
July 23, 200818 yr Author I should have clarrified, I meant the core, not the entire team. I was originally thinking there was no way we could keep the likes of Uggla next season, but it seems very likely we will be able to pay his arbitration. and we won't be able to unless we have a mid-40m payroll, but loria might actually be willing to go that high haha
July 23, 200818 yr You're probably looking at $60 million. I really doubt it'll be that high, players don't normally make that muh in their first year of arbitration unless their Ryan Howard-like, and for us, that'd have only been Hanley (signed) and Uggla (can he keep up on this pace?) I've been saying it for awhile now. I think Uggla's value is at its highest, and I don't see him being here for long-term. Some more NOT long-term guys...Mike Jacobs and Kevin Gregg. Listen, this doesn't mean that they are all bad players...it's just we're a small market team, we have prospects in the minors; not everyone is Hanley Ramirez, and when you are a small market team, you have to watch out who you sign long-term.
July 23, 200818 yr 2009 team C Baker/Treanor/ trade 1B Cantu/G. Sanchez 2B Uggla/Coughlan 3B McPherson/Uggla SS Ramirez LF Raynor/Ross CF Maybin/Ross I think we should have a RF, no? Hermida
July 23, 200818 yr 2009 team C Baker/Treanor/ trade 1B Cantu/G. Sanchez 2B Uggla/Coughlan 3B McPherson/Uggla SS Ramirez LF Raynor/Ross CF Maybin/Ross I think we should have a RF, no? lol forgot Hermida
July 23, 200818 yr Besides no heavy lifting on our part, Admin and Mike will take care of it all. We can just sit back and watch. This is it, right here. Admin Beinfest and Michael Hill have proven they know what they are doing. We just have to trust them.
July 23, 200818 yr I'm 60% sure that Mitre is being non-tendered. I'm 100% sure that Mitre is being non-tendered. I'm never 100% sure of a damned thing. I'm 99% sure that Mitre is being non-tendered.
July 23, 200818 yr Author You're probably looking at $60 million. I really doubt it'll be that high, players don't normally make that muh in their first year of arbitration unless their Ryan Howard-like, and for us, that'd have only been Hanley (signed) and Uggla (can he keep up on this pace?) I've been saying it for awhile now. I think Uggla's value is at its highest, and I don't see him being here for long-term. Some more NOT long-term guys...Mike Jacobs and Kevin Gregg. Listen, this doesn't mean that they are all bad players...it's just we're a small market team, we have prospects in the minors; not everyone is Hanley Ramirez, and when you are a small market team, you have to watch out who you sign long-term. Just because Uggla likely won't be here long term doesn't mean he has to be traded right away. We'll very likely still be contending next season. Coghlan isn't going to put up the numbers Uggla currently is. Coghlan is a very nice prospect because it's extremely unlikely he doesn't pan out, but it's also unlikely he'll be a superstar. He's somebody that when Uggla is no longer here, he'll be very solid for us, but that doesn't mean to trade Uggla right away. Obviously things change if Uggla drops off, but if Uggla continues to put up a .950+ OPS, he should be staying. And also yeah, you're acting like I disagree with you in regards to players not being here with the bolded part, but yet I myself was naming people who likely won't be here that we can easily replace, two of which you named.
July 23, 200818 yr Author What's Anibal's status next year? No where close to being arbitration eligible, since he was called to AAA before being put on the DL and such. He won't even be arbitration eligible after next season. He got f***ed royally, regardless if it was his or the FOs fault.
July 23, 200818 yr You could do this for about $43 million: Treanor - 1.0 Cantu - 3.5 Uggla - 8.0 Hanley - 5.5 Dallas - 0.8 Hammer - 3.5 Cody - 2.5 Hermida - 2.5 Ricky - 3.0 Scott - 3.0 Josh - 2.5 Anibal - 0.4 Cheap veteran - 1.0 Cheap veteran - 1.0 Minimum wage (11 players) - 4.4
July 23, 200818 yr You could do this for about $43 million: Treanor - 1.0 Cantu - 3.5 Uggla - 8.0 Hanley - 5.5 Dallas - 0.8 Hammer - 3.5 Cody - 2.5 Hermida - 2.5 Ricky - 3.0 Scott - 3.0 Josh - 2.5 Anibal - 0.4 Cheap veteran - 1.0 Cheap veteran - 1.0 Minimum wage (11 players) - 4.4 Hanley is our franchise player, imo. Why should Uggla get more per year?
July 23, 200818 yr Is 8m a little much for Uggla? I mean, Miggie didn't make that the first time he hit Arbi.
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.