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Why are you assuming all we're getting back is a small gain? Its all about ifs. If Hermida is good his value rises and its a huge loss. However if he doesnt pan put, then we're risking passing up on being able to trade him for top prospects. For example, look what happened with Willingham. I'm not saying we should have, but had he been traded him earlier the rturn would have been better.

 

It's a gamble either way whether to keep him or not, but if we get a good offer, it would be foolish to not take it.

If we had traded Hammer earlier we would have had a giant hole in the outfield. And if we trade Hermida now, we will have one since Hammer is gone.

 

Depends how much earlier youre talking about. Because I'm tlaking about when people still thought Hammer would be a C.

And then who plays in the LF for us? Reggie Abercrombie? Joe Borchard? Chris Aguila? Bah, I would have killed myself.

 

Plus, everyone knew he wasn't going to last as a catcher due to his back.

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Not in defense of Choi but anyone who was there Opening Day 2004 and beyond saw the raw skill the guy had. I never, never saw a ball leave Dolphin Stadium faster than off Choi's bat. That he ultimately proved to not be the player a great number of people and pundits thought he would be was unfortunate for the Fish, and for him, but when the man hit a baseball, it was a thing of beauty.

 

I've always been curious as to where the belief that Choi was terrible for us came from.

 

.883 OPS while playing for us and an .865 OPS at Dolphins stadium as a lefty. He was pretty damn good.

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Not in defense of Choi but anyone who was there Opening Day 2004 and beyond saw the raw skill the guy had. I never, never saw a ball leave Dolphin Stadium faster than off Choi's bat. That he ultimately proved to not be the player a great number of people and pundits thought he would be was unfortunate for the Fish, and for him, but when the man hit a baseball, it was a thing of beauty.

 

I've always been curious as to where the belief that Choi was terrible for us came from.

 

.883 OPS while playing for us and an .865 OPS at Dolphins stadium as a lefty. He was pretty damn good.

 

You aren't getting an argument from me.

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Why are you assuming all we're getting back is a small gain? Its all about ifs. If Hermida is good his value rises and its a huge loss. However if he doesnt pan put, then we're risking passing up on being able to trade him for top prospects. For example, look what happened with Willingham. I'm not saying we should have, but had he been traded him earlier the rturn would have been better.

 

It's a gamble either way whether to keep him or not, but if we get a good offer, it would be foolish to not take it.

What's foolish is to give up on 24 year old players a year removed from an .870 OPS, when we have no internal options to replace him.

 

Trading him is a classic selling low, coming off a disappointing low 700 OPSing year. I'm sure many front offices still believe in him, but it's not like you are getting fantastic value coming off a down year. Compare that to what he can become, which is a monster JD Drew type hitter, that is just not worth it to our organization. If he is bad again, you've lost relatively nothing. If he is even marginally better, as in produces let's say a high 700 OPS score where it becomes apparent he may not be a longterm piece and is just an ordinary outfielder, you have inflated his value by getting even nominal improvement.

 

You people are insane with Hermida. Literally insane. I thought this was going to end when Hammer got traded, but apparently all logic is out the window when a player doesn't develop like Hanley or Cabrera. I fear for Maybin next year.

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Why is this irrelevant? He plays half of all his games at home and has never had a consistent season in the majors. We can argue back and forth about potential all day but it really doesn't matter. We've wasted these 3 years in which he should've been in the minors and now its time to make a decision: is he worth arbitration money and the team's confidence in a year in which we are supposed to contend? Yes, he could certainly turn into some great hitter, I odn't think teams generally call up talents they think are hopeless for long spans of time. But he could also just do what he did last year and OPS below 750. The real question is do you have confidence and faith in him, adn want him at the plate when the game is on the line? I don't. I would rather try someone untested than pay more for someone with a history of dissapointing who tops it off with lazy defense.

 

And I really could care less if he turns into Manny Ramirez while playing for someone else 3 years from now. We are trying to contend in 2009, and Hermida isn't ready for it.

Because players at this age struggle, and past bumps in the road don't completely negate future potential. We haven't wasted 3 years. He hasn't been hopeless. You are clueless to player development if you truly believe that. No one is making excuses for him, but at the same time he's shown plenty of potential to be a plus hitter in this league and it's foolish to cut these players loose. Especially when they are cheap, and a 1st year arbitration Hermida is very cheap in baseball terms. Any FA that could get close to his hitting potential for 2009 would cost just as much, or more. This isn't a near 30 year old like Willingham and Jacobs who "are who they are." Hermida can absolutely be a corner OF on a contending team and he's not making or breaking our contending situation regardless. Our SP will take us as far as they want too. Your last sentence is frightening.

I never said it negates future potential, but if you're simply gonna ignore his track record where it's bad and harp on and on about where it's great then you're just deceiving yourself. It has been a waste, especially if you believe that Hermida really is that good, because we've wasted his 3 years on a span of time where for 2? of those seasons he held an OPS below 750. That's not what I call productive, and it also leads us to this current dilemma. I would think it easy to say "hang onto him" if he were not up for arbitration, but that's not the situation, because the team thought he was ready these last 3 years, and with the exception of a very good second half in 2007, Hermida has proven them wrong. Now you've got 3 options obviously - one is to keep Hermida, and you can think what you like, but I think expecting an OPS of over 750 out of him given his track record isn't being realistic. I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying I don't expect it. Second option would be to replace him with a FA, and though that would probably cost us more, it would probably also bring us someone a bit more reliable IMO, who could probably also play better defense. Third is obviously to call someone up, and while that is cheaper but much less reliable, I still think the odds of someone else showing up are better than those of Hermida. You don't even need to look very far to find guys who weren't so highly regarded in the minors but have hit very well since coming up - look at Uggla or even Baker this year. Not to say that I'm banking on something like that to happen again, but I am saying that I feel no reason to commit to Hermida after 2? seasons of sub-750 OPS production and lazy defense.

 

And why is that so frightening? There are plenty of superstars and amazing hitters in Baseball, and there will always be the majority of them on other teams, even if they played here before. It's not the end of the world to lose a player and then see them become great. Hell, it has happened plenty with this organization. Last offseason we traded away Miguel Cabrera (who is 1000x the hitter Hermida is and not even a whole year older) and the team got better, so it would hardly be the end of the world if we traded away Hermida, even if he ever managed to live up to his hype.

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Why are you assuming all we're getting back is a small gain? Its all about ifs. If Hermida is good his value rises and its a huge loss. However if he doesnt pan put, then we're risking passing up on being able to trade him for top prospects. For example, look what happened with Willingham. I'm not saying we should have, but had he been traded him earlier the rturn would have been better.

 

It's a gamble either way whether to keep him or not, but if we get a good offer, it would be foolish to not take it.

What's foolish is to give up on 24 year old players a year removed from an .870 OPS, when we have no internal options to replace him.

 

Trading him is a classic selling low, coming off a disappointing low 700 OPSing year. I'm sure many front offices still believe in him, but it's not like you are getting fantastic value coming off a down year. Compare that to what he can become, which is a monster JD Drew type hitter, that is just not worth it to our organization. If he is bad again, you've lost relatively nothing. If he is even marginally better, as in produces let's say a high 700 OPS score where it becomes apparent he may not be a longterm piece and is just an ordinary outfielder, you have inflated his value by getting even nominal improvement.

 

You people are insane with Hermida. Literally insane. I thought this was going to end when Hammer got traded, but apparently all logic is out the window when a player doesn't develop like Hanley or Cabrera. I fear for Maybin next year.

 

We're a team that trades arbitration eligible players all the time if a good deal comes up. Maybin isn't arbitration eligible after this season, so that argument holds no water.

 

All the arguments here are based on ifs. As is mine. IF we get a good offer take it, if we don't then hold on to Hermida. That's basic Marlins front office strategy. I personally have no problem with him staying, hell it may be for the better, but I certainly have no problem if we trade him for something valuable.

 

If his OPS improves slightly his value does not improve, because his current value is based on potential, not anything he has done (2007 was a small sample size since he was hurt for a good chunk of the year), so unless his OPS is in the 800s this season, his value will drop, because with every year his potential decreases. Another year with a sub-800 OPS makes him a nice player but not close to what people expected of him. The value for a consistently mid 700 OPS rightfielder is lower than for a young guy with potential to be a star.

 

So let's clarify this argument--I don't want to trade Hermida and I hope he does welll, but if a good offer comes along, it would be foolish to not trade him.

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Why are you assuming all we're getting back is a small gain? Its all about ifs. If Hermida is good his value rises and its a huge loss. However if he doesnt pan put, then we're risking passing up on being able to trade him for top prospects. For example, look what happened with Willingham. I'm not saying we should have, but had he been traded him earlier the rturn would have been better.

 

It's a gamble either way whether to keep him or not, but if we get a good offer, it would be foolish to not take it.

What's foolish is to give up on 24 year old players a year removed from an .870 OPS, when we have no internal options to replace him.

 

Trading him is a classic selling low, coming off a disappointing low 700 OPSing year. I'm sure many front offices still believe in him, but it's not like you are getting fantastic value coming off a down year. Compare that to what he can become, which is a monster JD Drew type hitter, that is just not worth it to our organization. If he is bad again, you've lost relatively nothing. If he is even marginally better, as in produces let's say a high 700 OPS score where it becomes apparent he may not be a longterm piece and is just an ordinary outfielder, you have inflated his value by getting even nominal improvement.

 

You people are insane with Hermida. Literally insane. I thought this was going to end when Hammer got traded, but apparently all logic is out the window when a player doesn't develop like Hanley or Cabrera. I fear for Maybin next year.

 

I said this in another thread, but...

 

The FO seems to like Raynor and Carroll quite a bit, along with a couple other OFers in the system. I think they wanted to see how they could develope during the off season. Their injuries have put a kink in the plans. The FO was pretty well split on keeping Hermida or giving up on him. Now, with Raynor and Carroll both with broken bones, they have no real option... keep Jeremy until we can see what those two have to offer. And it gives Jeremy the opportunity to show he is living up to the expectations surrounding him. Toss in De Aza, who the powers that be also have an affection for. It will be an interesting ST and first couple months of the regular season. I've been saying all along I am on the fence concerning Jeremy, but those two injuries tell me the team won't be trading him this winter. IF they do, that should tell everyone they see something in at least one of the minor leaguers that not many around here see. Whether we see it as right or wrong is irrelevant, and possibly misinformed.

 

I know, I know... "Look at the numbers!" Bah. Look at the Jeremy benching. Look at Carroll getting the call up twice even tho he was supposedly in Fredi's doghouse. Look at the FO hype around Raynor. Look at the shots De Aza has gotten only to be foiled by unlucky type injuries. It's all just gut feelings and reading between the lines, but...

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There is a huge difference between a 24 year old Hermida, and nearly 30 year old Willingham and Jacobs, a RP scheduled to make around $5 million, and a SP who projects as a 4/5 now even if he is still young because his velocity has dipped, a plus third pitch has never developed, and he has serious makeup issues. Hermida is not in the same class of players, yet.

 

And I have no problem with your analysis of the farm system, but Carroll and De Aza should not be mentioned. Raynor, Cousins, and Petersen would all be likely replacements if Hermida is not hitting in July.

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