I'm just a little worried about the Marlins right now. The reason they were winning games last season was because of the offense and it won't be as good in 2009 as it was in 2008. I don't think the Marlins can afford to trade Uggla right now. I'm not a believer in AA stats and projecting that guys like Coghlan could step in and produce anywhere near the level of Uggla. AA pitchers are nowhere near the quality of major league pitchers and that is a fact. You can mark Uggla down for 100 runs scored, 30 homers and 90 RBIs for 2009 but what kind of numbers would Coghlan, Bonifacio or Andino put up? At some point the Marlins have to quit being cheap and Uggla is without a doubt the 2nd best position player on the Marlins right now and that's not debateable. I really just don't see the upside of trading him because I'm not so certain the Marlins would get quite the haul that a lot of you do.

 

And we'll win with pitching in 2009.

Well, Lou. The Marlins were fifth in runs scored in the National League and they hit the 2nd most homers in the league. The Marlins finished 11th in the National League in ERA which shows that they certainly didn't have a winning record because of their pitching staff.

Well, Lou. The Marlins were fifth in runs scored in the National League and they hit the 2nd most homers in the league. The Marlins finished 11th in the National League in ERA which shows that they certainly didn't have a winning record because of their pitching staff.

So, I'll reference you back to your own user name: back in 2008.

 

In 2009, however, we will win with pitching.

There is not a magic bullet defensive stat. Unlike offense which has VORP and OPS (or even OPS+), defense has to be puzzled out through the application of several metrics.

 

Errors do matter, but not in a vaccuum, and one must always remember that they are a result of a judgement call.

I think combining FP and RFg to figure out how well the guy gets to the ball then makes the play is pretty much the best way to go. It's how I rank 70% of a player's defensive ability.

RF is an absolute horrible way to judge a player's defensive abilities.

 

Look at how it's calculated.

 

Then you'll understand why it's so horrible.

Well, Lou. The Marlins were fifth in runs scored in the National League and they hit the 2nd most homers in the league. The Marlins finished 11th in the National League in ERA which shows that they certainly didn't have a winning record because of their pitching staff.

And what does this add to anything? I just showed how we're better offensively, defensively, and pitching? I don't know what you are even getting at because you refuse to respond to posts and you post BS all the time these days. The offense was league average and amazingly streaky with HR or nothing. And don't you see the problem when you hit the 3rd most HR in baseball, but score the 14th most runs? This is not a sustainable offense, and not the way to build a winner. Sure, the Marlins pounded out some wins the first half of the year on offense. No one is contesting that.

 

Pre-All Star. Marlins were 50-45, with a -28 run differential < - Not a winning recipe!

Marlins were 7th in baseball in runs (462), 27th in pitching (4.68 era)

 

This clearly shows the Marlins were extremely lucky the first half of the year of winning more games than they should have with offense. Great for them for hitting all the HR, but like I've said, this is not sustainable offensive production when it is all HR and not centered around players that can hit consistently and for OBP purposes. You can really see the negative impact of Hendrickson, Badenhop, and a struggling Miller here.

 

Post-All Star Break. Marlins were 34-32, with a +31 run differential < - Winning recipe!

Marlins were 20th in baseball in runs (308), 9th in pitching (4.08 era)

 

Where'd the offense go? Oh they are streak HR hitters, got it. The bolded shows, even with a below average offense you will create a winner with pitching. This is way to obvious. Why do I have to do this with you all of the time? With a balanced offense, and this means getting Jacobs empty OPS off the team, and bringing in G. Sanchez, a full year of Baker and Maybin, McDallas to mash righties, and see improvement with Hermida, the offense is going to catch up real fast and make a killer team. As shown in previous posts, the offensive contribution these players need to make isn't outrageous for this team to improve offensively.

 

What's the point? The Marlins got lucky in the first half and hit some HR in the first half last year to keep the team floating even with a negative run differential, then they stopped hitting and Ricky, Volstad, and Johnson pitched like banshees. If we had any offense in the second half, we would have won 90 games easily.

RF is an absolute horrible way to judge a player's defensive abilities.

 

Look at how it's calculated.

 

Then you'll understand why it's so horrible.

For a first baseman, I agree because they are so involved in putouts. But why is it so horrible for any other position?

The way range factor is calculated is

 

(Putouts + Assists) / Innings

 

What this means is that there are SO many other factors that go into play.

 

Have a GB heavy staff? The IFers will have a higher RF regardless of their real range

Have a FB heavy staff? Same thing for the OFers

Live in a division that's LH heavy? now the right side of the field will get more balls.

RH? left side

 

There are so many factors that go into it that doesn't actually have to deal with range.

 

RZR (more or less ability to field a ball) and OOZ (range) is probably the best free stat you'll find. Plus/Minus triumphs but it also costs money to view. I broke down the stats to explain them here:

http://www.marlinsbaseball.com/forums/inde...showtopic=85846

The way range factor is calculated is

 

(Putouts + Assists) / Innings

 

What this means is that there are SO many other factors that go into play.

 

Have a GB heavy staff? The IFers will have a higher RF regardless of their real range

Have a FB heavy staff? Same thing for the OFers

Live in a division that's LH heavy? now the right side of the field will get more balls.

RH? left side

 

There are so many factors that go into it that doesn't actually have to deal with range.

 

RZR (more or less ability to field a ball) and OOZ (range) is probably the best free stat you'll find. Plus/Minus triumphs but it also costs money to view. I broke down the stats to explain them here:

http://www.marlinsbaseball.com/forums/inde...showtopic=85846

While I appreciate your research and agree with some of it, don't rotations/bullpens and with them the type of staff a team has change from season to season?

Well, Lou. The Marlins were fifth in runs scored in the National League and they hit the 2nd most homers in the league. The Marlins finished 11th in the National League in ERA which shows that they certainly didn't have a winning record because of their pitching staff.

And what does this add to anything? I just showed how we're better offensively, defensively, and pitching? I don't know what you are even getting at because you refuse to respond to posts and you post BS all the time these days. The offense was league average and amazingly streaky with HR or nothing. And don't you see the problem when you hit the 3rd most HR in baseball, but score the 14th most runs? This is not a sustainable offense, and not the way to build a winner. Sure, the Marlins pounded out some wins the first half of the year on offense. No one is contesting that.

 

Pre-All Star. Marlins were 50-45, with a -28 run differential < - Not a winning recipe!

Marlins were 7th in baseball in runs (462), 27th in pitching (4.68 era)

 

This clearly shows the Marlins were extremely lucky the first half of the year of winning more games than they should have with offense. Great for them for hitting all the HR, but like I've said, this is not sustainable offensive production when it is all HR and not centered around players that can hit consistently and for OBP purposes. You can really see the negative impact of Hendrickson, Badenhop, and a struggling Miller here.

 

Post-All Star Break. Marlins were 34-32, with a +31 run differential < - Winning recipe!

Marlins were 20th in baseball in runs (308), 9th in pitching (4.08 era)

 

Where'd the offense go? Oh they are streak HR hitters, got it. The bolded shows, even with a below average offense you will create a winner with pitching. This is way to obvious. Why do I have to do this with you all of the time? With a balanced offense, and this means getting Jacobs empty OPS off the team, and bringing in G. Sanchez, a full year of Baker and Maybin, McDallas to mash righties, and see improvement with Hermida, the offense is going to catch up real fast and make a killer team. As shown in previous posts, the offensive contribution these players need to make isn't outrageous for this team to improve offensively.

 

What's the point? The Marlins got lucky in the first half and hit some HR in the first half last year to keep the team floating even with a negative run differential, then they stopped hitting and Ricky, Volstad, and Johnson pitched like banshees. If we had any offense in the second half, we would have won 90 games easily.

 

Looks to me like they had a same record in both halves. I have my doubts that G.Sanchez will produce anything near what Jacobs did last season. Sure, he's a better defender but he was 25 last season and the highest he ever played has been in AA. Sanchez could just as easily hit a empty .220 as he can a strong .280+. Maybin is a stellar prospect and he could be an outstanding player in the near future. He did rip the ball for the Marlins in September but he also whiffed 124 times in 390 at bats last season against AA pitching! He is another player who could go either way. Don't get me started on Dallas McPherson however. You tell me on one hand that Mike Jacobs (.816 career OPS) sucks while Dallas McPherson (.756 career OPS) with a whiff every 2.94 at bats in his major league career is the savior of the team. Jacobs also has a higher OPS than the great Jeremy Hermida (.778) who you keep projecting to be the next Albert Pujols.

Well, Lou. The Marlins were fifth in runs scored in the National League and they hit the 2nd most homers in the league. The Marlins finished 11th in the National League in ERA which shows that they certainly didn't have a winning record because of their pitching staff.

And what does this add to anything? I just showed how we're better offensively, defensively, and pitching? I don't know what you are even getting at because you refuse to respond to posts and you post BS all the time these days. The offense was league average and amazingly streaky with HR or nothing. And don't you see the problem when you hit the 3rd most HR in baseball, but score the 14th most runs? This is not a sustainable offense, and not the way to build a winner. Sure, the Marlins pounded out some wins the first half of the year on offense. No one is contesting that.

 

Pre-All Star. Marlins were 50-45, with a -28 run differential < - Not a winning recipe!

Marlins were 7th in baseball in runs (462), 27th in pitching (4.68 era)

 

This clearly shows the Marlins were extremely lucky the first half of the year of winning more games than they should have with offense. Great for them for hitting all the HR, but like I've said, this is not sustainable offensive production when it is all HR and not centered around players that can hit consistently and for OBP purposes. You can really see the negative impact of Hendrickson, Badenhop, and a struggling Miller here.

 

Post-All Star Break. Marlins were 34-32, with a +31 run differential < - Winning recipe!

Marlins were 20th in baseball in runs (308), 9th in pitching (4.08 era)

 

Where'd the offense go? Oh they are streak HR hitters, got it. The bolded shows, even with a below average offense you will create a winner with pitching. This is way to obvious. Why do I have to do this with you all of the time? With a balanced offense, and this means getting Jacobs empty OPS off the team, and bringing in G. Sanchez, a full year of Baker and Maybin, McDallas to mash righties, and see improvement with Hermida, the offense is going to catch up real fast and make a killer team. As shown in previous posts, the offensive contribution these players need to make isn't outrageous for this team to improve offensively.

 

What's the point? The Marlins got lucky in the first half and hit some HR in the first half last year to keep the team floating even with a negative run differential, then they stopped hitting and Ricky, Volstad, and Johnson pitched like banshees. If we had any offense in the second half, we would have won 90 games easily.

 

Looks to me like they had a same record in both halves. I have my doubts that G.Sanchez will produce anything near what Jacobs did last season. Sure, he's a better defender but he was 25 last season and the highest he ever played has been in AA. Sanchez could just as easily hit a empty .220 as he can a strong .280+. Maybin is a stellar prospect and he could be an outstanding player in the near future. He did rip the ball for the Marlins in September but he also whiffed 124 times in 390 at bats last season against AA pitching! He is another player who could go either way. Don't get me started on Dallas McPherson however. You tell me on one hand that Mike Jacobs (.816 career OPS) sucks while Dallas McPherson (.756 career OPS) with a whiff every 2.94 at bats in his major league career is the savior of the team. Jacobs also has a higher OPS than the great Jeremy Hermida (.778) who you keep projecting to be the next Albert Pujols.

 

 

We don't need Gaby Sanchez to hit 30 Homeruns, which is the only thing Jacobs did. We need him to get on base and play good defense. That is what Sanchez is known for.

 

As for Dallas Mcpherson, he is not going to be starting for us if he lasts on the team till April. He will be in a platoon against righties, which he destroys. This limits his at bats, and his strike outs. Also, his defense is so much better than Mike Jacobs defense. So that is an instant upgrade there to.

Well, Lou. The Marlins were fifth in runs scored in the National League and they hit the 2nd most homers in the league. The Marlins finished 11th in the National League in ERA which shows that they certainly didn't have a winning record because of their pitching staff.

And what does this add to anything? I just showed how we're better offensively, defensively, and pitching? I don't know what you are even getting at because you refuse to respond to posts and you post BS all the time these days. The offense was league average and amazingly streaky with HR or nothing. And don't you see the problem when you hit the 3rd most HR in baseball, but score the 14th most runs? This is not a sustainable offense, and not the way to build a winner. Sure, the Marlins pounded out some wins the first half of the year on offense. No one is contesting that.

 

Pre-All Star. Marlins were 50-45, with a -28 run differential < - Not a winning recipe!

Marlins were 7th in baseball in runs (462), 27th in pitching (4.68 era)

 

This clearly shows the Marlins were extremely lucky the first half of the year of winning more games than they should have with offense. Great for them for hitting all the HR, but like I've said, this is not sustainable offensive production when it is all HR and not centered around players that can hit consistently and for OBP purposes. You can really see the negative impact of Hendrickson, Badenhop, and a struggling Miller here.

 

Post-All Star Break. Marlins were 34-32, with a +31 run differential < - Winning recipe!

Marlins were 20th in baseball in runs (308), 9th in pitching (4.08 era)

 

Where'd the offense go? Oh they are streak HR hitters, got it. The bolded shows, even with a below average offense you will create a winner with pitching. This is way to obvious. Why do I have to do this with you all of the time? With a balanced offense, and this means getting Jacobs empty OPS off the team, and bringing in G. Sanchez, a full year of Baker and Maybin, McDallas to mash righties, and see improvement with Hermida, the offense is going to catch up real fast and make a killer team. As shown in previous posts, the offensive contribution these players need to make isn't outrageous for this team to improve offensively.

 

What's the point? The Marlins got lucky in the first half and hit some HR in the first half last year to keep the team floating even with a negative run differential, then they stopped hitting and Ricky, Volstad, and Johnson pitched like banshees. If we had any offense in the second half, we would have won 90 games easily.

 

Looks to me like they had a same record in both halves. I have my doubts that G.Sanchez will produce anything near what Jacobs did last season. Sure, he's a better defender but he was 25 last season and the highest he ever played has been in AA. Sanchez could just as easily hit a empty .220 as he can a strong .280+. Maybin is a stellar prospect and he could be an outstanding player in the near future. He did rip the ball for the Marlins in September but he also whiffed 124 times in 390 at bats last season against AA pitching! He is another player who could go either way. Don't get me started on Dallas McPherson however. You tell me on one hand that Mike Jacobs (.816 career OPS) sucks while Dallas McPherson (.756 career OPS) with a whiff every 2.94 at bats in his major league career is the savior of the team. Jacobs also has a higher OPS than the great Jeremy Hermida (.778) who you keep projecting to be the next Albert Pujols.

 

 

We don't need Gaby Sanchez to hit 30 Homeruns, which is the only thing Jacobs did. We need him to get on base and play good defense. That is what Sanchez is known for.

 

As for Dallas Mcpherson, he is not going to be starting for us if he lasts on the team till April. He will be in a platoon against righties, which he destroys. This limits his at bats, and his strike outs. Also, his defense is so much better than Mike Jacobs defense. So that is an instant upgrade there to.

 

 

Getting on base as a 25-year old in AA is completely different than getting on base against Brandon Webb and Carlos Zambrano. True, he's better than Jacobs on defense but almost every player that can play 1B is. I will believe that McPherson can mash in the majors when I see it.

As for Dallas Mcpherson, he is not going to be starting for us if he lasts on the team till April. He will be in a platoon against righties, which he destroys. This limits his at bats, and his strike outs. Also, his defense is so much better than Mike Jacobs defense. So that is an instant upgrade there to.

 

 

You mean that his defense at 3B is better than Cantu's at 3B, with Cantu playing primarily 1B, where HIS defense is better than Jake's

As for Dallas Mcpherson, he is not going to be starting for us if he lasts on the team till April. He will be in a platoon against righties, which he destroys. This limits his at bats, and his strike outs. Also, his defense is so much better than Mike Jacobs defense. So that is an instant upgrade there to.

 

 

You mean that his defense at 3B is better than Cantu's at 3B, with Cantu playing primarily 1B, where HIS defense is better than Jake's

 

Yea, lol

Well, Lou. The Marlins were fifth in runs scored in the National League and they hit the 2nd most homers in the league. The Marlins finished 11th in the National League in ERA which shows that they certainly didn't have a winning record because of their pitching staff.

And what does this add to anything? I just showed how we're better offensively, defensively, and pitching? I don't know what you are even getting at because you refuse to respond to posts and you post BS all the time these days. The offense was league average and amazingly streaky with HR or nothing. And don't you see the problem when you hit the 3rd most HR in baseball, but score the 14th most runs? This is not a sustainable offense, and not the way to build a winner. Sure, the Marlins pounded out some wins the first half of the year on offense. No one is contesting that.

 

Pre-All Star. Marlins were 50-45, with a -28 run differential < - Not a winning recipe!

Marlins were 7th in baseball in runs (462), 27th in pitching (4.68 era)

 

This clearly shows the Marlins were extremely lucky the first half of the year of winning more games than they should have with offense. Great for them for hitting all the HR, but like I've said, this is not sustainable offensive production when it is all HR and not centered around players that can hit consistently and for OBP purposes. You can really see the negative impact of Hendrickson, Badenhop, and a struggling Miller here.

 

Post-All Star Break. Marlins were 34-32, with a +31 run differential < - Winning recipe!

Marlins were 20th in baseball in runs (308), 9th in pitching (4.08 era)

 

Where'd the offense go? Oh they are streak HR hitters, got it. The bolded shows, even with a below average offense you will create a winner with pitching. This is way to obvious. Why do I have to do this with you all of the time? With a balanced offense, and this means getting Jacobs empty OPS off the team, and bringing in G. Sanchez, a full year of Baker and Maybin, McDallas to mash righties, and see improvement with Hermida, the offense is going to catch up real fast and make a killer team. As shown in previous posts, the offensive contribution these players need to make isn't outrageous for this team to improve offensively.

 

What's the point? The Marlins got lucky in the first half and hit some HR in the first half last year to keep the team floating even with a negative run differential, then they stopped hitting and Ricky, Volstad, and Johnson pitched like banshees. If we had any offense in the second half, we would have won 90 games easily.

 

Looks to me like they had a same record in both halves. I have my doubts that G.Sanchez will produce anything near what Jacobs did last season. Sure, he's a better defender but he was 25 last season and the highest he ever played has been in AA. Sanchez could just as easily hit a empty .220 as he can a strong .280+. Maybin is a stellar prospect and he could be an outstanding player in the near future. He did rip the ball for the Marlins in September but he also whiffed 124 times in 390 at bats last season against AA pitching! He is another player who could go either way. Don't get me started on Dallas McPherson however. You tell me on one hand that Mike Jacobs (.816 career OPS) sucks while Dallas McPherson (.756 career OPS) with a whiff every 2.94 at bats in his major league career is the savior of the team. Jacobs also has a higher OPS than the great Jeremy Hermida (.778) who you keep projecting to be the next Albert Pujols.

 

 

We don't need Gaby Sanchez to hit 30 Homeruns, which is the only thing Jacobs did. We need him to get on base and play good defense. That is what Sanchez is known for.

 

As for Dallas Mcpherson, he is not going to be starting for us if he lasts on the team till April. He will be in a platoon against righties, which he destroys. This limits his at bats, and his strike outs. Also, his defense is so much better than Mike Jacobs defense. So that is an instant upgrade there to.

 

 

Getting on base as a 25-year old in AA is completely different than getting on base against Brandon Webb and Carlos Zambrano. True, he's better than Jacobs on defense but almost every player that can play 1B is. I will believe that McPherson can mash in the majors when I see it.

 

Have you seen Mike Jacobs .OBP #'s? You don't even have to be "average" to produce a Mike Jacobs-type .OBP.

 

Also, take a look at minor league #'s. Gaby Sanchez had a career .397 .OBP in the minors, with a VERY GOOD BB:K ratio. Patience isn't easily taught, and while he might not post those type of .OBP #'s in the big leagues, there's no reason to think that he becomes an impatient hitter now, just b/c he's coming to the big leagues. He is what he is.

 

Just like Mike Jacobs minor league stats show him to be the type of hitter he is today in the bigs. An "all or nothing" hitter.

Let's see if Sanchez can slug better than Jacobs' .514 in 2009.

Let's see if Sanchez can slug better than Jacobs' .514 in 2009.

 

 

Who has said that he will, again?

He won't. What we're saying is that slugging isn't everything. For the decrease in slugging, we'll get an increase in on-base percentage (which IS important)...not to mention every fielder in the infielder will now look much better now that "Grandma Jake" is no longer playing 1B.

Let's see if Sanchez can slug better than Jacobs' .514 in 2009.

 

 

Who has said that he will, again?

He won't. What we're saying is that slugging isn't everything. For the decrease in slugging, we'll get an increase in on-base percentage (which IS important)...not to mention every fielder in the infielder will now look much better now that "Grandma Jake" is no longer playing 1B.

 

Jacobs will be a lot closer to .514 than any 1B the Marlins trot out in 2009.....guaranteed. Slugging is much more important than you give it credit for as it's easier to score when you hit a double or triple than walking or getting a single and that's a fact. Not to mention if you can jack one out of the park and score without any help.

Let's see if Sanchez can slug better than Jacobs' .514 in 2009.

 

 

Who has said that he will, again?

He won't. What we're saying is that slugging isn't everything. For the decrease in slugging, we'll get an increase in on-base percentage (which IS important)...not to mention every fielder in the infielder will now look much better now that "Grandma Jake" is no longer playing 1B.

 

Jacobs will be a lot closer to .514 than any 1B the Marlins trot out in 2009.....guaranteed. Slugging is much more important than you give it credit for as it's easier to score when you hit a double or triple than walking or getting a single and that's a fact. Not to mention if you can jack one out of the park and score without any help.

 

 

Slugging is important. It becomes less important, however, when that .514 slugging also = a .299 .OBP. An .812 .OPS from a 28 year old 1B (or shall I say DH!) is very replaceable.

 

Gaby Sanchez can put up an .812 .OPS. And he can definitely act like a 1B, once in awhile.

 

Both players are replaceable, when it's all said and done.

 

Stop pretending like a platoon DH (which is what Jacobs REALLY is) is so tough to replace. There's nothing special about Jake's game (aside from his inconsistent hot spurts of power).

Let's see if Sanchez can slug better than Jacobs' .514 in 2009.

 

 

Who has said that he will, again?

He won't. What we're saying is that slugging isn't everything. For the decrease in slugging, we'll get an increase in on-base percentage (which IS important)...not to mention every fielder in the infielder will now look much better now that "Grandma Jake" is no longer playing 1B.

 

Jacobs will be a lot closer to .514 than any 1B the Marlins trot out in 2009.....guaranteed. Slugging is much more important than you give it credit for as it's easier to score when you hit a double or triple than walking or getting a single and that's a fact. Not to mention if you can jack one out of the park and score without any help.

 

In regards to contributions to a lineup... OBP is 2x as important as SLG. Ok... so, take that into mind and let's say our 1B platoon does a .340/.420... that's equivalent to Jake's total contribution to the team.

 

You're acting as if Gaby will slug a la Jason Kendall... he won't... he and Cantu should provide a mid .400s SLG in addition to a MUCH better OBP...

Let's see if Sanchez can slug better than Jacobs' .514 in 2009.

 

 

Who has said that he will, again?

He won't. What we're saying is that slugging isn't everything. For the decrease in slugging, we'll get an increase in on-base percentage (which IS important)...not to mention every fielder in the infielder will now look much better now that "Grandma Jake" is no longer playing 1B.

 

Jacobs will be a lot closer to .514 than any 1B the Marlins trot out in 2009.....guaranteed. Slugging is much more important than you give it credit for as it's easier to score when you hit a double or triple than walking or getting a single and that's a fact. Not to mention if you can jack one out of the park and score without any help.

 

In regards to contributions to a lineup... OBP is 2x as important as SLG. Ok... so, take that into mind and let's say our 1B platoon does a .340/.420... that's equivalent to Jake's total contribution to the team.

 

You're acting as if Gaby will slug a la Jason Kendall... he won't... he and Cantu should provide a mid .400s SLG in addition to a MUCH better OBP...

 

In what world is OBP worth twice as much as slugging %? Not the real world.

In what world is OBP worth twice as much as slugging %? Not the real world.

 

Wanna bet?

 

 

 

When the weight of OBP is doubled - and used in OPS, it correlates to runs scored more than any stat

 

Thanks for playing though

Mumbo Jumbo. Slugging PCT is based on total bases my friend which is way more important than how many times you walk.

Mumbo Jumbo. Slugging PCT is based on total bases my friend which is way more important than how many times you walk.

 

Hahahahahaha... you've gotta be kidding me?

 

I just showed you that OBP = more runs scored via a study done using runs scored during the past decade or so... and you're saying it's less important... that it's "mumbo jumbo"

 

You sir... are truly special

You are doubling OBP which shows nothing. Double SLG % and see how that correlates to runs scored.