actually, they really are.

 

 

Ok... hypothetical situation... Player A has average range and makes only 10 errors in a season... but Player B has twice the range of Player A and has 16 errors... who's the better fielder?

 

Or... you can use a more appropriate analogy... Player A has been playing his position (more than) twice as long as Player B... Player A has fewer errors than Player B... Player B is still learning the position...

 

So... no, they aren't... there's WAY more to defense than errors... thanks for playing

 

Do you ever see that happen? The better defender usually makes less errors, period.

actually, they really are.

 

 

Ok... hypothetical situation... Player A has average range and makes only 10 errors in a season... but Player B has twice the range of Player A and has 16 errors... who's the better fielder?

 

Or... you can use a more appropriate analogy... Player A has been playing his position (more than) twice as long as Player B... Player A has fewer errors than Player B... Player B is still learning the position...

 

So... no, they aren't... there's WAY more to defense than errors... thanks for playing

 

Do you ever see that happen? The better defender usually makes less errors, period.

 

BAH... NO... WRONG...

 

Chase Utley makes as many errors as Uggla does... who's the better fielder?

 

Over 2 season spans...

 

Uggla 24 Errors

Utley 23 Errors

 

And just for comparison's sake... between 2001 and 2002 Luis Castillo netted a total of 26 Errors

 

Quite clearly, Uggla is no Utley or Castillo

 

Errors aren't a measure... PLEASE... PLEASE arm yourself with knowledge! http://www.fieldingbible.com/

actually, they really are.

 

 

Ok... hypothetical situation... Player A has average range and makes only 10 errors in a season... but Player B has twice the range of Player A and has 16 errors... who's the better fielder?

 

Or... you can use a more appropriate analogy... Player A has been playing his position (more than) twice as long as Player B... Player A has fewer errors than Player B... Player B is still learning the position...

 

So... no, they aren't... there's WAY more to defense than errors... thanks for playing

 

Do you ever see that happen? The better defender usually makes less errors, period.

 

BAH... NO... WRONG...

 

Chase Utley makes as many errors as Uggla does... who's the better fielder?

 

Over 2 season spans...

 

Uggla 24 Errors

Utley 23 Errors

 

And just for comparison's sake... between 2001 and 2002 Luis Castillo netted a total of 26 Errors

 

Quite clearly, Uggla is no Utley or Castillo

 

Errors aren't a measure... PLEASE... PLEASE arm yourself with knowledge! http://www.fieldingbible.com/

 

Thanks, i was looking for a website like that :thumbup

Thanks, i was looking for a website like that :thumbup

 

Yeah... it's a tease though, they offer just enough for free to make you want to pay for it :lol

Thanks, i was looking for a website like that :thumbup

 

Yeah... it's a tease though, they offer just enough for free to make you want to pay for it :lol

 

Yea, i Noticed that. Bastards :banghead

When Coghlan finally learns to field his position, if he ever does, he very well could push Uggla out his starting 2nd base role and maybe elsewhere in a trade. But as long as CC has no D and the Marlins are contending in 2009 I suspect there is little chance of it happening.

 

Just what is it about Coghlan that is so gosh darn special? The guy doesn't project to bring half the production that Uggla can. Just because we have him in our system doesn't mean we should trade one of our best players to make it happen.

 

Coghlan at the minor league level looks just as special, if not more special, as Uggla did at the minor league level.

 

Coghlan is not projectable. He is what he is. Every scouting report on him says that. His ceiling really isn't that of an all-star while Uggla's is. I've never said that Coghlan is gonna be a bad player, but Uggla is special and Coghlan isn't.

 

As an early Marlins fan, its kind of like comparing Gary Sheffield to Dave Magadan (yes I'm aware that they weren't both second basemen). ts completely obvious who was the more important player. Uggla has that kidn of impact bat while Coghlan has a competent bat. You just don't get rid of a star like Uggla for an average prospect like Coghlan.

This thread has turned into a headache.

Who would've ever thought that errors and VORP were the best defensive stats in baseball?

 

For those wondering, VORP has ZERO to do with defense.

 

The best defensive statistic is probably the +/- stat, which only Nny seems to have access to.

 

If we're going by errors, Emilio Bonifacio sucks defensively, as well.

When Coghlan finally learns to field his position, if he ever does, he very well could push Uggla out his starting 2nd base role and maybe elsewhere in a trade. But as long as CC has no D and the Marlins are contending in 2009 I suspect there is little chance of it happening.

 

Just what is it about Coghlan that is so gosh darn special? The guy doesn't project to bring half the production that Uggla can. Just because we have him in our system doesn't mean we should trade one of our best players to make it happen.

 

Coghlan at the minor league level looks just as special, if not more special, as Uggla did at the minor league level.

 

Coghlan is not projectable. He is what he is. Every scouting report on him says that. His ceiling really isn't that of an all-star while Uggla's is. I've never said that Coghlan is gonna be a bad player, but Uggla is special and Coghlan isn't.

 

As an early Marlins fan, its kind of like comparing Gary Sheffield to Dave Magadan (yes I'm aware that they weren't both second basemen). ts completely obvious who was the more important player. Uggla has that kidn of impact bat while Coghlan has a competent bat. You just don't get rid of a star like Uggla for an average prospect like Coghlan.

 

 

I understand what you're saying.

Just pointing out that Dan Uggla was NEVER supposed to be as good as he's become.

This thread has turned into a headache.

Who would've ever thought that errors and VORP were the best defensive stats in baseball?

 

For those wondering, VORP has ZERO to do with defense.

 

The best defensive statistic is probably the +/- stat, which only Nny seems to have access to.

 

If we're going by errors, Emilio Bonifacio sucks defensively, as well.

I have +/- also. You can get it at BillJamesOnline.com, but you have to pay for a subscription.

When Coghlan finally learns to field his position, if he ever does, he very well could push Uggla out his starting 2nd base role and maybe elsewhere in a trade. But as long as CC has no D and the Marlins are contending in 2009 I suspect there is little chance of it happening.

 

Just what is it about Coghlan that is so gosh darn special? The guy doesn't project to bring half the production that Uggla can. Just because we have him in our system doesn't mean we should trade one of our best players to make it happen.

 

Coghlan at the minor league level looks just as special, if not more special, as Uggla did at the minor league level.

 

Coghlan is not projectable. He is what he is. Every scouting report on him says that. His ceiling really isn't that of an all-star while Uggla's is. I've never said that Coghlan is gonna be a bad player, but Uggla is special and Coghlan isn't.

 

As an early Marlins fan, its kind of like comparing Gary Sheffield to Dave Magadan (yes I'm aware that they weren't both second basemen). ts completely obvious who was the more important player. Uggla has that kidn of impact bat while Coghlan has a competent bat. You just don't get rid of a star like Uggla for an average prospect like Coghlan.

 

 

I understand what you're saying.

Just pointing out that Dan Uggla was NEVER supposed to be as good as he's become.

 

Uggla was under the radar, but a look at his minor league numbers will tell you that he had terrific power potential. He had 21 homers and 33 doubles in his last year in double A, where he had about a .880 OPS. Combine that with his powerful frame and terrific bat speed, and its absolutely incredible that he wasn't talked about more. I'm inclined to think that scouts and baseball executives alike just screwed up royally on him. It just goes to show you the folly that surrounds prospects, where a few much-talked about guys demand terrific value while others who perform at the same levels, or in many cases even exceeding that of the top prospects, just don't get the respect they deserve.

 

I don't think Coghlan has been under the radar at all, in fact I think he has been talked about quite an awful lot for an average middle infield prospect. But there is absolutely no reason to think that Coghlan could drastically exceed his projection, so much so that we feel fine with sending Uggla off without even having anyone else in the lineup capable of matching his power production.

Coghlan is not projectable. He is what he is. Every scouting report on him says that. His ceiling really isn't that of an all-star while Uggla's is. I've never said that Coghlan is gonna be a bad player, but Uggla is special and Coghlan isn't.

 

As an early Marlins fan, its kind of like comparing Gary Sheffield to Dave Magadan (yes I'm aware that they weren't both second basemen). ts completely obvious who was the more important player. Uggla has that kidn of impact bat while Coghlan has a competent bat. You just don't get rid of a star like Uggla for an average prospect like Coghlan.

No one disputes this, besides Uggla is a star because he isn't. If Coghlan is going to hit .775-.800 and play neutral defense (which are both very likely because of his BB/K and pedigree), and Uggla is going to hit career .831 and play around neutral defense for $7-10 million dollars a year after 2009, the choice is easy. And I'm not talking about because we're the Marlins. I'm talking about, if we're the Yankees. Uggla is more than likely going to play himself off the team because we have comparable alternatives and he is going to be more valuable than in trade than in on the field production. We're set at 2B. Uggla, or no Uggla, is not a problem.

I don't think Coghlan has been under the radar at all, in fact I think he has been talked about quite an awful lot for an average middle infield prospect. But there is absolutely no reason to think that Coghlan could drastically exceed his projection, so much so that we feel fine with sending Uggla off without even having anyone else in the lineup capable of matching his power production.

 

I agree with your assessment of Coghlan; however, we can't lose sight of the fact that we wouldn't be trading Uggla just so Coghlan could start. Everyone realizes the folly in that. But in dealing Uggla, we would get a big chunk of salary relief and likely a hefty haul in return.

 

So the question becomes is the salary savings + trade return significant and important enough "that we feel fine with sending Uggla off without even having anyone else in the lineup capable of matching his power production"?

We're 99.99% to not find anyone to match his power potential while still being a [decent fielding] 2nd baseman. That might be okay though, depending on the factors mentioned above.

 

Also, if it's power you want, this team is far from sorely lacking, even without Uggla (These are potential numbers; I'm not claiming complete accuracy - obviously they could be somewhat higher or lower).

Figure this as far as home run production:

LF - Hermida - 15

RF - Ross - 20 (eventually Morrison/Stanton could project to 20-45)

CF Maybin - 20

1B - Gaby/Cantu - 20

2B - Coghlan - 5

SS - Hanley - 30

3B - Cantu/Dallas - 25

C - Baker/? - 10

 

That's 145 home runs just from the starting 8, and these seem to be to be a little conservative for some of these guys playing a full season. (If Hanley bats 3rd, he might go to town; Ross hit 22 in just 461 AB last year)

Sprinkle in about 25 homeruns off the bench, and 170 dingers would put them 16th in MLB, and 8th in the NL. Middle of the road, and better if any of these guys exceed these moderate estimates.

 

Or you could take the 208 HR from this year, -32 for Uggla, +5 for coghlan, -32 for jacobs, + 10 for gaby, and you get 169 HR, just about the same number.

 

I'm fine with that, especially if Coghlan/Gaby/Dallas/Maybin can greatly improve our OBP (there's a very good chance of this in the next 1-3 years) and the haul for Uggla is solid, which it figures to be. Not to mention that $5 million+ of salary relief (I'm not necessarily referring to right now, but possibly later this season or next offseason), could be enough to go after that FA or two who could really, in combination with our other [new] players, put us over the top.

Coghlan is not projectable. He is what he is. Every scouting report on him says that. His ceiling really isn't that of an all-star while Uggla's is. I've never said that Coghlan is gonna be a bad player, but Uggla is special and Coghlan isn't.

 

As an early Marlins fan, its kind of like comparing Gary Sheffield to Dave Magadan (yes I'm aware that they weren't both second basemen). ts completely obvious who was the more important player. Uggla has that kidn of impact bat while Coghlan has a competent bat. You just don't get rid of a star like Uggla for an average prospect like Coghlan.

No one disputes this, besides Uggla is a star because he isn't. If Coghlan is going to hit .775-.800 and play neutral defense (which are both very likely because of his BB/K and pedigree), and Uggla is going to hit career .831 and play around neutral defense for $7-10 million dollars a year after 2009, the choice is easy. And I'm not talking about because we're the Marlins. I'm talking about, if we're the Yankees. Uggla is more than likely going to play himself off the team because we have comparable alternatives and he is going to be more valuable than in trade than in on the field production. We're set at 2B. Uggla, or no Uggla, is not a problem.

 

I agree, but if we move Uggla and don't receive any 2B prospects in return, we'd be a bit thin organizationally I believe. After CC, Smolinski seems to be the next guy with any chance of being a legit starter at 2B. I just don't see it in Emilio or Andino, although the organization seems to believe in the former, at least. And with Smolinski such a wildcard (injury history + lack of a true position), I'd be a little nervous about that.

When Coghlan finally learns to field his position, if he ever does, he very well could push Uggla out his starting 2nd base role and maybe elsewhere in a trade. But as long as CC has no D and the Marlins are contending in 2009 I suspect there is little chance of it happening.

 

 

He's projected to be a solid defender.

How do you know he has "no D?" Have you ever watched him play?

 

did you know that Coughlen had more errors in the minors than Uggla had at the major league level?

 

Does it make any difference that it's in the minors? My gut says no, although maybe NNY or someone can inform me. I mean, maybe guys are better hitters in MLB, but MiLB pitchers don't throw the ball as well, and baseball fields are baseball fields, so the ball probably bounces just about the same ways and is hit just about as hard.

 

Also, you can't forget that 2008 was only Coghlan's 2nd year playing 2nd base.

And if you want to use errors and FP as a barometer:

 

As a 22-year-old, in his 1st season playing 2B, in A-ball and A+, CC's fielding % was .964 and .974, respectively.

As a 22-year-old in A-ball and A+ who was drafted to play 2B, Uggla's fielding % was .969 and .950, respectively. (And while neither was a large sample size, the .950 stint was the larger of the two)

 

As a 23-year-old, in his 2nd season playing 2B, in AA, CC's fielding % was .968

As a 23-year-old and beyond who was drafted to play 2B, Uggla's fielding % was as follows: A+ - .977, (24 yrs) A+ - .979, AA - .940, (25 yrs) AA - .959.

 

So, if that's the route you want to go, Coghlan has been putting up similar numbers at even younger ages, despite a recent switch to a position that Uggla was being groomed to play for some time.

I agree with your assessment of Coghlan; however, we can't lose sight of the fact that we wouldn't be trading Uggla just so Coghlan could start. Everyone realizes the folly in that. But in dealing Uggla, we would get a big chunk of salary relief and likely a hefty haul in return.

 

So the question becomes is the salary savings + trade return significant and important enough "that we feel fine with sending Uggla off without even having anyone else in the lineup capable of matching his power production"?

We're 99.99% to not find anyone to match his power potential while still being a [decent fielding] 2nd baseman. That might be okay though, depending on the factors mentioned above.

 

Also, if it's power you want, this team is far from sorely lacking, even without Uggla (These are potential numbers; I'm not claiming complete accuracy - obviously they could be somewhat higher or lower).

Figure this as far as home run production:

LF - Hermida - 15

RF - Ross - 20 (eventually Morrison/Stanton could project to 20-45)

CF Maybin - 20

1B - Gaby/Cantu - 20

2B - Coghlan - 5

SS - Hanley - 30

3B - Cantu/Dallas - 25

C - Baker/? - 10

 

That's 145 home runs just from the starting 8, and these seem to be to be a little conservative for some of these guys playing a full season. (If Hanley bats 3rd, he might go to town; Ross hit 22 in just 461 AB last year)

Sprinkle in about 25 homeruns off the bench, and 170 dingers would put them 16th in MLB, and 8th in the NL. Middle of the road, and better if any of these guys exceed these moderate estimates.

 

Or you could take the 208 HR from this year, -32 for Uggla, +5 for coghlan, -32 for jacobs, + 10 for gaby, and you get 169 HR, just about the same number.

 

I'm fine with that, especially if Coghlan/Gaby/Dallas/Maybin can greatly improve our OBP (there's a very good chance of this in the next 1-3 years) and the haul for Uggla is solid, which it figures to be. Not to mention that $5 million+ of salary relief (I'm not necessarily referring to right now, but possibly later this season or next offseason), could be enough to go after that FA or two who could really, in combination with our other [new] players, put us over the top.

 

We're not gonna get better value for the money that a player like Uggla. You just can't sign players of a high caliber in FA without breaking the bank, and there would be very few who are worth what Uggla is. If we could pick up a frontline starter for that money, I'd understand, but starters are gonna cost at least twice what Uggla will in arby.

It depends on how you define longterm. If they want to buy 2 years, which is what Texas did with Teixeira, no problem. Anything more is very bad payroll management because we would be paying a premium price for Uggla right now coming off his peak year, and it's doubtful he remains a high 800 OPS because of his contact issues. Dishing him a 5 year contract, which is what I think you mean, would be horrific. He is not a star like Hanley. And this is especially true with Coghlan and Bonifacio around. We have his rights for 3 years, not a big deal. He's not going anywhere if we want him.

 

The only players the Marlins should be thinking about buy outs are Maybin, and all 5 starting pitchers. Whoever shows up next year, should get 5+ year contracts from that group. Everyone else, including Hermida even if he OPS's .900 next year, should not be bought out at this time.

 

Maybin isn't even due arbitration for quite some time. I would rather wait until we see what he can do over an extended period. I'm not partial to that buy now and save $$$ down the line theory. It can work, but when it dosen't you are stuck. We can't afford to be stuck. And all 5 SPs? I'm not into signing any pitcher long term. Much less a bunch of kids that really haven't shown they can be huge innings eaters that can go injury free for the long haul. I would prefer to keep stocking the minors with studs and pay the SPs per year.

 

 

That's not what he's trying to say :banghead

 

He just means that everyone else on that roster is even a potential candidate for a buyout. He wouldn't even touch Uggla, Cody, Baker, etc.

 

The only guys who could even potentially be in that discussion at some point are Maybin and the pitching staff. Obviously we'd want to tread very carefully with buyouts/long(er)-term deals, but these are the only guys with whom he sees the possibility of talks opening up at some point for a potential buyout.

 

I can't really say it any other way without wasting effort that should be spent cramming for my econ final.

 

You can stop with the :banghead any time. I understood exactly what he was saying. The point is, at this time there really isn't anyone on the team that should be looked at long term. Senseless to start bringing up names at this point. And especially pitchers which the team never signs long term.

Coghlan is not projectable. He is what he is. Every scouting report on him says that. His ceiling really isn't that of an all-star while Uggla's is. I've never said that Coghlan is gonna be a bad player, but Uggla is special and Coghlan isn't.

 

As an early Marlins fan, its kind of like comparing Gary Sheffield to Dave Magadan (yes I'm aware that they weren't both second basemen). ts completely obvious who was the more important player. Uggla has that kidn of impact bat while Coghlan has a competent bat. You just don't get rid of a star like Uggla for an average prospect like Coghlan.

No one disputes this, besides Uggla is a star because he isn't. If Coghlan is going to hit .775-.800 and play neutral defense (which are both very likely because of his BB/K and pedigree), and Uggla is going to hit career .831 and play around neutral defense for $7-10 million dollars a year after 2009, the choice is easy. And I'm not talking about because we're the Marlins. I'm talking about, if we're the Yankees. Uggla is more than likely going to play himself off the team because we have comparable alternatives and he is going to be more valuable than in trade than in on the field production. We're set at 2B. Uggla, or no Uggla, is not a problem.

 

I would have to agree with almost all of this statement. And only disagree with the bolded part because I don't think you mentioned the 2B of the future. I'm not really sold on Coghlan, only because I haven't seen him play much and I'm not a stats type guy. You guys that like him so much could be right.

Uggla is a star because he isn't

 

Ain't that the truth.

 

Uggla is a pure blue-collar guy with a simple philosophy who makes no bones about it: See ball, hit ball.

 

As he's said many times, and no doubt said often 4 or 5 years ago to scouts and the like before we picked him off. Which is probably why he was under everyone else's radar.

 

This has been a sophisticated discussion (not including this post) involving esoterica and minutiae that Uggla probably couldn't follow and wouldn't want to if he could. Mashers tend not to care about such things.

 

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy reading it and I enjoy watching Dan Uggla. I hope he's around for a long time and stops making rookie mistakes at some point, but I ain't gonna bet on either. He is what he is. Hopefully that's good enough to keep him around.

 

On a side note, don't expect the Mutts to be making an offer for him or anyone. It seems that the Mutts owners may have lost as much as $300 million invested with Madoff. Loria could have made them a much better deal on a stadium.

 

Various reports say that Mutt's team money in the "tens of millions" was involved. Remains to be seen whether any team money is involved, but I wouldn't doubt it for a second considering that Wilpon had a ton of money with Madoff. What safer place to put team money than with one of your (crooked) buddies who provides nice, stable (faked) returns come hell or high water?

 

Guess what? High water is here, and it's gushing over the Mutt's gunwales, team money or no.

 

:lol :lol :lol

I'm just a little worried about the Marlins right now. The reason they were winning games last season was because of the offense and it won't be as good in 2009 as it was in 2008. I don't think the Marlins can afford to trade Uggla right now. I'm not a believer in AA stats and projecting that guys like Coghlan could step in and produce anywhere near the level of Uggla. AA pitchers are nowhere near the quality of major league pitchers and that is a fact. You can mark Uggla down for 100 runs scored, 30 homers and 90 RBIs for 2009 but what kind of numbers would Coghlan, Bonifacio or Andino put up? At some point the Marlins have to quit being cheap and Uggla is without a doubt the 2nd best position player on the Marlins right now and that's not debateable. I really just don't see the upside of trading him because I'm not so certain the Marlins would get quite the haul that a lot of you do.

I'm just a little worried about the Marlins right now. The reason they were winning games last season was because of the offense and it won't be as good in 2009 as it was in 2008. I don't think the Marlins can afford to trade Uggla right now. I'm not a believer in AA stats and projecting that guys like Coghlan could step in and produce anywhere near the level of Uggla. AA pitchers are nowhere near the quality of major league pitchers and that is a fact. You can mark Uggla down for 100 runs scored, 30 homers and 90 RBIs for 2009 but what kind of numbers would Coghlan, Bonifacio or Andino put up? At some point the Marlins have to quit being cheap and Uggla is without a doubt the 2nd best position player on the Marlins right now and that's not debateable. I really just don't see the upside of trading him because I'm not so certain the Marlins would get quite the haul that a lot of you do.

You sure about that? Because I disagree completely. Baseball is a team sport.

 

C - .251/.323/.340 (.664), and now we have a full year of Baker and whoever replacing Treanor/Rabelo. This could go up 100 OPS points easily. That is an enormous enormous improvement.

1B - .253/.304/.506 (.811). This is completely empty with that OBP, and when Gaby and friends make this a .280/.340/.450 line, the effects of Jacobs will be understood. Not losing anything here. This might be an upgrade even with a lower expected team OPS at the position because of the huge OBP upgrade.

2B - .259/.351/.497 (.848). This is probably going down a little but, not much but I'd say 20-30 OPS points. This is a relative wash with Uggla. Agree completely this is a likely 100 OPS drop without him which is why I want to keep him around for 2009, but this isn't a big deal.

SS - .303/.396/.530 (.926). He'll do it again.

3B - .270/.324/.438 (.761). Yea this is pretty low. You can thank Helm's 128 AB with a lower than .600 OPS here. This is easily going up as a combination of Cantu, McDallas mashing only righties, and Helms mashing only lefties which he can hit, is going to happen. I pray Bonifacio does not play much here, but I'm pretty confident he won't as we have 4 corner IF options.

LF - .270/.366/.467 (.833). Now we have a problem, and I'm going to do Ross here and not Hermida for simplicity. Willingham and Gonzalez had very solid years in LF for us, and it's going to be tough for Ross to replicate this by himself, especially with no 4th OF. This is probably going down 30-50 OPS points unless Ross keeps up the offense versus right handers. I really hope we bring in a left handed LF guy to help him out here.

CF - .262/.318/.432 (.750). I'm very confident, at a minimum, Maybin can hit this.

RF - .243/.311/.407 (.718). We don't need to get into the Hermida debate, but regardless of who plays here next year, this is going to go up. The team is not going to allow this to happen in right field again.

 

So basically, (the number that follows are realistic OPS bumps or decreases in production)

 

Increases - Catcher (75), Third Base (50), Right Field (50)

Wash - First Base, Shortstop, Center Field

Decreases - Second Base (30), Left Field (50)

 

This is pretty damn fair, and it is really undercutting the impact Baker, Hermida, and Ross can each make because Baker could easily hit more than a mid 700 OPS, and the corner outfielders could easily both be over an .800 OPS, and not in the .775 range which I'm presenting above just for arguments sake. The team is better offensively right now than the 2008 season simply because we're going to get a lot more out of those three positions. It's going to take a significant injury to Hanley, Uggla, or an outfielder to not improve here. Our kids can play. You shouldn't be worried about McPherson, Maybin, Sanchez, and Baker. They don't have to do much to equal or better last year's performance. The real key to the whole offense is Hermida. If he shows up like 2007, the offense is going to be phenomenal and we're going to score tons of more runs. If he is the next Teahen, we'll still be as good or better. That's a nice gamble to have. (And longterm, we could be developing four .850 OPS monster players with Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, and Skipworth, and other average MLB bats from Coghlan, Cousins, Raynor, Petersen, Smolinski, and Bonifacio. The offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon).

 

Also, let's hypothetically take Uggla out.

 

Way up - Catcher (75), Third Base (50), Right Field (50)

Wash - First Base, Shortstop, Center Field

Decreases - Second Base (100), Left Field (50)

 

See how the offense is still better than 2008 (granted this is a crude analysis, but you get the idea), and again, if Baker, Hermida, and Ross hit higher than the .750-.775, the team takes off. This isn't a big deal for the Marlins. We should keep Dan for 2009 to give Coghlan and Bonifacio another year to develop, but if Coghlan does it again in AAA, it's going to be time to move Dan for that A+ "Aldersen" style pitching prospect and go with the scrappy slap hitters. His gains in offense over the potential replacements is not going to be worth $7-10 million dollars. Right now at the $4.5-5 million range and Coghlan just out of AA, sure. Things probably change in 2010. Maybe even the deadline.

 

Let's take it further also about the Marlins, defensively, the corner IF slots are going up huge, and the new outfield arrangement is an even bigger upgrade as well. The team is going to win 3-5 more games simply on defense next year. And we have our 5 starting pitchers ready to go, where we won't be giving 38 starts to Hendrickson, Badenhop, Tucker, and Cruz next year. Huge upgrade. Even if Nolasco comes down, and Anibal/Miller throw high 4 eras, this is an upgrade. We could use a 6th SP though, but we'll keep an eye on that over the rest of the offseason just so we don't have to resort to Vanden Hurk or Badenhop again. As we've gone over in other threads, we have 20 bullpen arms all at AA or above. We don't have problems there. The only issue is going to be competition by attrition and figuring out which ones are going to make it. I'm very optimistic by the end of the year we have Lindstrom, Nunez, Tucker, Ceda, and Cruz throwing fireballs, and hopefully Pinto and Kroenke/Meyer/Tank producing a bit from the left. Really like the pen longterm.

 

Again, why are you worried about the Marlins? It's very legitimate to think this team is improved offensively, defensively, and pitching wise right now. And our farm is loaded. None of what I've typed is a stretch or could be considered overly homerish. This is pretty damn objective, and really not expecting much out Baker, Ross, Hermida, McPherson, Sanchez, Maybin, and the starters. Sure we should have done better with the Olsen trade, and we still need a veteran bullpen/6th starter and a left handed 4th outfielder, but those are very minor things when it comes down to it compared to where we are.

 

We're in great shape even if Beinfest still makes some bone-headed Nelson moves here and there.

Uggla was under the radar, but a look at his minor league numbers will tell you that he had terrific power potential. He had 21 homers and 33 doubles in his last year in double A, where he had about a .880 OPS. Combine that with his powerful frame and terrific bat speed, and its absolutely incredible that he wasn't talked about more. I'm inclined to think that scouts and baseball executives alike just screwed up royally on him. It just goes to show you the folly that surrounds prospects, where a few much-talked about guys demand terrific value while others who perform at the same levels, or in many cases even exceeding that of the top prospects, just don't get the respect they deserve.

 

An 880 OPS from a 25 year old in AA isn't really impressive. Especially when you consider that he had .656 OPS at the same level the previous year. The guy had a minor league OPS of .790 even though he was continually too old for his level.

 

It's awesome things worked out for Danny but you can't look at his minor league numbers and say "How did people overlook this guy"

As usual, completely agree with Lou here.

 

Now, at $5 Mill a yearand with CC just off a good double-A year, let it sit one more. Uggla will continue his normal All-Star numbers, and hopefully Coghlan continues success into triple-A. Next year, you deal Uggla ala Cabrera, at his max value as a three-time All-Star and two years of arb left.

There is not a magic bullet defensive stat. Unlike offense which has VORP and OPS (or even OPS+), defense has to be puzzled out through the application of several metrics.

 

Errors do matter, but not in a vaccuum, and one must always remember that they are a result of a judgement call.

There is not a magic bullet defensive stat. Unlike offense which has VORP and OPS (or even OPS+), defense has to be puzzled out through the application of several metrics.

 

I agree that defensive stats are still progressing and ergo are not perfect. However I disagree about the second part, that one has to look at several metrics.

 

I mean, if you understand how the stats work, at they get these numbers, you'll understand why +/- is an extremely good stat, why the old zone rating (and ergo the new UZR) has a lot of flaws, why Range Factor is just stupid.

 

This certainly isn't pointed at you but what I dislike about a lot of people that just throw aside defensive stats, a lot of which has to do with the inefficiency of the old ZR and RF, without actually looking at how the result is gotten. It's also why I hate VORP. BP doesn't release how to calculate VORP. So then, how do we know it's such a good stat? You should only use a calculation if you actually understand the calculation.

 

And then just then brings it back to errors.

 

The thing that a lot of people seem to forgo with the whole "look at errors" thing, is that +/-, RZR, so forth, they take those plays into content. It is not labeled, but why does it need labeling?

 

If a player makes an error on a ball hit that 99% of the time is turned into an out, how is that different from a player that is unable to get to a ball that is turned into an out 99% of the time due to his poor range and horrible jump?

 

There is no reason to make a distinction between the two.

 

Errors could be seen as "how good is a player at catching a ball," but that brings up the question "does that really even matter"? I mean, look at fielding percent. Really look at it. The highest SS was at .988. The lowest was at .967. That might look like a big difference, but that means that the highest caught balls at a 98.8% clip and the lowest caught them at a 96.7% clip. We're talking about a difference of two balls out of 100 chances. The difference between the top players ability to catch a ball and the lowest is so minimal. So what matters more, that minimal distinction, or range?

I'm just a little worried about the Marlins right now. The reason they were winning games last season was because of the offense and it won't be as good in 2009 as it was in 2008. I don't think the Marlins can afford to trade Uggla right now. I'm not a believer in AA stats and projecting that guys like Coghlan could step in and produce anywhere near the level of Uggla. AA pitchers are nowhere near the quality of major league pitchers and that is a fact. You can mark Uggla down for 100 runs scored, 30 homers and 90 RBIs for 2009 but what kind of numbers would Coghlan, Bonifacio or Andino put up? At some point the Marlins have to quit being cheap and Uggla is without a doubt the 2nd best position player on the Marlins right now and that's not debateable. I really just don't see the upside of trading him because I'm not so certain the Marlins would get quite the haul that a lot of you do.

You sure about that? Because I disagree completely. Baseball is a team sport.

 

C - .251/.323/.340 (.664), and now we have a full year of Baker and whoever replacing Treanor/Rabelo. This could go up 100 OPS points easily. That is an enormous enormous improvement.

1B - .253/.304/.506 (.811). This is completely empty with that OBP, and when Gaby and friends make this a .280/.340/.450 line, the effects of Jacobs will be understood. Not losing anything here. This might be an upgrade even with a lower expected team OPS at the position because of the huge OBP upgrade.

2B - .259/.351/.497 (.848). This is probably going down a little but, not much but I'd say 20-30 OPS points. This is a relative wash with Uggla. Agree completely this is a likely 100 OPS drop without him which is why I want to keep him around for 2009, but this isn't a big deal.

SS - .303/.396/.530 (.926). He'll do it again.

3B - .270/.324/.438 (.761). Yea this is pretty low. You can thank Helm's 128 AB with a lower than .600 OPS here. This is easily going up as a combination of Cantu, McDallas mashing only righties, and Helms mashing only lefties which he can hit, is going to happen. I pray Bonifacio does not play much here, but I'm pretty confident he won't as we have 4 corner IF options.

LF - .270/.366/.467 (.833). Now we have a problem, and I'm going to do Ross here and not Hermida for simplicity. Willingham and Gonzalez had very solid years in LF for us, and it's going to be tough for Ross to replicate this by himself, especially with no 4th OF. This is probably going down 30-50 OPS points unless Ross keeps up the offense versus right handers. I really hope we bring in a left handed LF guy to help him out here.

CF - .262/.318/.432 (.750). I'm very confident, at a minimum, Maybin can hit this.

RF - .243/.311/.407 (.718). We don't need to get into the Hermida debate, but regardless of who plays here next year, this is going to go up. The team is not going to allow this to happen in right field again.

 

So basically, (the number that follows are realistic OPS bumps or decreases in production)

 

Increases - Catcher (75), Third Base (50), Right Field (50)

Wash - First Base, Shortstop, Center Field

Decreases - Second Base (30), Left Field (50)

 

This is pretty damn fair, and it is really undercutting the impact Baker, Hermida, and Ross can each make because Baker could easily hit more than a mid 700 OPS, and the corner outfielders could easily both be over an .800 OPS, and not in the .775 range which I'm presenting above just for arguments sake. The team is better offensively right now than the 2008 season simply because we're going to get a lot more out of those three positions. It's going to take a significant injury to Hanley, Uggla, or an outfielder to not improve here. Our kids can play. You shouldn't be worried about McPherson, Maybin, Sanchez, and Baker. They don't have to do much to equal or better last year's performance. The real key to the whole offense is Hermida. If he shows up like 2007, the offense is going to be phenomenal and we're going to score tons of more runs. If he is the next Teahen, we'll still be as good or better. That's a nice gamble to have. (And longterm, we could be developing four .850 OPS monster players with Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, and Skipworth, and other average MLB bats from Coghlan, Cousins, Raynor, Petersen, Smolinski, and Bonifacio. The offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon).

 

Also, let's hypothetically take Uggla out.

 

Way up - Catcher (75), Third Base (50), Right Field (50)

Wash - First Base, Shortstop, Center Field

Decreases - Second Base (100), Left Field (50)

 

See how the offense is still better than 2008 (granted this is a crude analysis, but you get the idea), and again, if Baker, Hermida, and Ross hit higher than the .750-.775, the team takes off. This isn't a big deal for the Marlins. We should keep Dan for 2009 to give Coghlan and Bonifacio another year to develop, but if Coghlan does it again in AAA, it's going to be time to move Dan for that A+ "Aldersen" style pitching prospect and go with the scrappy slap hitters. His gains in offense over the potential replacements is not going to be worth $7-10 million dollars. Right now at the $4.5-5 million range and Coghlan just out of AA, sure. Things probably change in 2010. Maybe even the deadline.

 

Let's take it further also about the Marlins, defensively, the corner IF slots are going up huge, and the new outfield arrangement is an even bigger upgrade as well. The team is going to win 3-5 more games simply on defense next year. And we have our 5 starting pitchers ready to go, where we won't be giving 38 starts to Hendrickson, Badenhop, Tucker, and Cruz next year. Huge upgrade. Even if Nolasco comes down, and Anibal/Miller throw high 4 eras, this is an upgrade. We could use a 6th SP though, but we'll keep an eye on that over the rest of the offseason just so we don't have to resort to Vanden Hurk or Badenhop again. As we've gone over in other threads, we have 20 bullpen arms all at AA or above. We don't have problems there. The only issue is going to be competition by attrition and figuring out which ones are going to make it. I'm very optimistic by the end of the year we have Lindstrom, Nunez, Tucker, Ceda, and Cruz throwing fireballs, and hopefully Pinto and Kroenke/Meyer/Tank producing a bit from the left. Really like the pen longterm.

 

Again, why are you worried about the Marlins? It's very legitimate to think this team is improved offensively, defensively, and pitching wise right now. And our farm is loaded. None of what I've typed is a stretch or could be considered overly homerish. This is pretty damn objective, and really not expecting much out Baker, Ross, Hermida, McPherson, Sanchez, Maybin, and the starters. Sure we should have done better with the Olsen trade, and we still need a veteran bullpen/6th starter and a left handed 4th outfielder, but those are very minor things when it comes down to it compared to where we are.

 

We're in great shape even if Beinfest still makes some bone-headed Nelson moves here and there.

 

 

Jesus Christ that was thorough! Well done sir.