January 27, 200917 yr My opinion is that our offense is gonna hurt because we lost 2 guys that can bring in runs.... Cody Ross does not impress me and he's not gonna bring in many runs... J.Hermida is a big ?....will he finally be the player we all hope he will be,or will he continue to be a bust.IMO alot is running on how he hits this year.If he does our offense will be alot smoother,if he fails i see us hurting. C.Maybin better be the guy we saw,he is another big ?...alot of our offense is also running on whether this guy can consistenly get on and score runs.... Cantu-i think he will be around 25hr's and 90rbi's again which will help Ramirez-he should have a breakout season and have 30+hr's and 90+rbi's uggla-low avg. 25+hr's and 90+rbi's those 3 guys will be the rbi guys.... Sanchez and Baker wont help out much IMO.... So basically what i'm trying to say that our offense depends on what kinda year were gonna get from our OF's... If they can get on and drive in some runs we'll be alright.... If they fail,were gonna need alot of shutouts...
January 27, 200917 yr Author My opinion is that our offense is gonna hurt because we lost 2 guys that can bring in runs.... Cody Ross does not impress me and he's not gonna bring in many runs... J.Hermida is a big ?....will he finally be the player we all hope he will be,or will he continue to be a bust.IMO alot is running on how he hits this year.If he does our offense will be alot smoother,if he fails i see us hurting. C.Maybin better be the guy we saw,he is another big ?...alot of our offense is also running on whether this guy can consistenly get on and score runs.... Cantu-i think he will be around 25hr's and 90rbi's again which will help Ramirez-he should have a breakout season and have 30+hr's and 90+rbi's uggla-low avg. 25+hr's and 90+rbi's those 3 guys will be the rbi guys.... Sanchez and Baker wont help out much IMO.... So basically what i'm trying to say that our offense depends on what kinda year were gonna get from our OF's... If they can get on and drive in some runs we'll be alright.... If they fail,were gonna need alot of shutouts... That's what I was trying to address Hanley and Cantu are the only guys that will produce for sure. Everyone else is a question mark or a gamble. Hanley and Cantu producing doesn't mean anything if the rest of our lineup is going to struggle.
January 27, 200917 yr So basically what i'm trying to say that our offense depends on what kinda year were gonna get from our OF's... If they can get on and drive in some runs we'll be alright.... I agree that the OF is a substantial question mark in terms of offensive production this season. All 3 starters are crap shoots to a certain extent. For this reason I think we need a veteran OF, ideally someone with a well-established offensive track record. Not sure its gonna happen, though. There is plenty of reason to be optimistic going into the year, but a lot is up in the air, and (as is often the case with our club) a lot is riding on young players. It makes things exciting as a fan, though. Remember when Maybin was on fire last Sept? That was awesome.
January 27, 200917 yr My opinion is that our offense is gonna hurt because we lost 2 guys that can bring in runs.... Cody Ross does not impress me and he's not gonna bring in many runs... J.Hermida is a big ?....will he finally be the player we all hope he will be,or will he continue to be a bust.IMO alot is running on how he hits this year.If he does our offense will be alot smoother,if he fails i see us hurting. C.Maybin better be the guy we saw,he is another big ?...alot of our offense is also running on whether this guy can consistenly get on and score runs.... Cantu-i think he will be around 25hr's and 90rbi's again which will help Ramirez-he should have a breakout season and have 30+hr's and 90+rbi's uggla-low avg. 25+hr's and 90+rbi's those 3 guys will be the rbi guys.... Sanchez and Baker wont help out much IMO.... So basically what i'm trying to say that our offense depends on what kinda year were gonna get from our OF's... If they can get on and drive in some runs we'll be alright.... If they fail,were gonna need alot of shutouts... That's what I was trying to address Hanley and Cantu are the only guys that will produce for sure. Everyone else is a question mark or a gamble. Hanley and Cantu producing doesn't mean anything if the rest of our lineup is going to struggle. I don't know how a 2 time all-star is a question mark and Cantu isn't.
January 27, 200917 yr I don't know how a 2 time all-star is a question mark and Cantu isn't. Uggz is somewhat of a question mark because his form dropped off towards the end of last season. I think we are all aware of that fact. The criticism he is vulnerable to is not a question of whether or not he will produce next season but how much and at what level. Would you be very surprised if Uggla did not make the all-star team this season? I wouldn't be. I will be more interested in seeing his defensive development come spring. Look for another step in the right direction on that front. Here's hoping that the teams emphasis on D brings results. I dont think its crazy to say that Cantu is more of a known entity going forward. I expect Uggs to have a better season in terms of raw numbers though.
January 27, 200917 yr I don't know how a 2 time all-star is a question mark and Cantu isn't. Uggz is somewhat of a question mark because his form dropped off towards the end of last season. I think we are all aware of that fact. The criticism he is vulnerable to is not a question of whether or not he will produce next season but how much and at what level. Would you be very surprised if Uggla did not make the all-star team this season? I wouldn't be. I will be more interested in seeing his defensive development come spring. Look for another step in the right direction on that front. Here's hoping that the teams emphasis on D brings results. I dont think its crazy to say that Cantu is more of a known entity going forward. I expect Uggs to have a better season in terms of raw numbers though. I understand that Uggla has some doubts, but Cantu has been only OPSed 80 and 79 in the last two seasons. I don't feel that he is a known entity at all, much less more know than Danny. Edit: That's OPS+ by the way.
January 27, 200917 yr My opinion is that our offense is gonna hurt because we lost 2 guys that can bring in runs.... Cody Ross does not impress me and he's not gonna bring in many runs... J.Hermida is a big ?....will he finally be the player we all hope he will be,or will he continue to be a bust.IMO alot is running on how he hits this year.If he does our offense will be alot smoother,if he fails i see us hurting. C.Maybin better be the guy we saw,he is another big ?...alot of our offense is also running on whether this guy can consistenly get on and score runs.... Cantu-i think he will be around 25hr's and 90rbi's again which will help Ramirez-he should have a breakout season and have 30+hr's and 90+rbi's uggla-low avg. 25+hr's and 90+rbi's those 3 guys will be the rbi guys.... Sanchez and Baker wont help out much IMO.... So basically what i'm trying to say that our offense depends on what kinda year were gonna get from our OF's... If they can get on and drive in some runs we'll be alright.... If they fail,were gonna need alot of shutouts... How the hell does he not impress you? He had a very good 2008 season.
January 27, 200917 yr Author My opinion is that our offense is gonna hurt because we lost 2 guys that can bring in runs.... Cody Ross does not impress me and he's not gonna bring in many runs... J.Hermida is a big ?....will he finally be the player we all hope he will be,or will he continue to be a bust.IMO alot is running on how he hits this year.If he does our offense will be alot smoother,if he fails i see us hurting. C.Maybin better be the guy we saw,he is another big ?...alot of our offense is also running on whether this guy can consistenly get on and score runs.... Cantu-i think he will be around 25hr's and 90rbi's again which will help Ramirez-he should have a breakout season and have 30+hr's and 90+rbi's uggla-low avg. 25+hr's and 90+rbi's those 3 guys will be the rbi guys.... Sanchez and Baker wont help out much IMO.... So basically what i'm trying to say that our offense depends on what kinda year were gonna get from our OF's... If they can get on and drive in some runs we'll be alright.... If they fail,were gonna need alot of shutouts... That's what I was trying to address Hanley and Cantu are the only guys that will produce for sure. Everyone else is a question mark or a gamble. Hanley and Cantu producing doesn't mean anything if the rest of our lineup is going to struggle. I don't know how a 2 time all-star is a question mark and Cantu isn't. Uggla tends to be very streaky. He also ended the season on a decline. Cantu I believe has his act together. The point is we are leaving our offense to many guys who aren't proven yet. I do hope they prove themselves this year. It takes more than one season to prove yourself.
January 27, 200917 yr I don't know how a 2 time all-star is a question mark and Cantu isn't. Uggz is somewhat of a question mark because his form dropped off towards the end of last season. I think we are all aware of that fact. The criticism he is vulnerable to is not a question of whether or not he will produce next season but how much and at what level. Would you be very surprised if Uggla did not make the all-star team this season? I wouldn't be. I will be more interested in seeing his defensive development come spring. Look for another step in the right direction on that front. Here's hoping that the teams emphasis on D brings results. I dont think its crazy to say that Cantu is more of a known entity going forward. I expect Uggs to have a better season in terms of raw numbers though. I understand that Uggla has some doubts, but Cantu has been only OPSed 80 and 79 in the last two seasons. I don't feel that he is a known entity at all, much less more know than Danny. Edit: That's OPS+ by the way. Cantu's 79 and 80 are from 07 and 06, respectively Last year he posted an .808 OPS, which put him at 110 OPS+ Uggla had a .874 OPS = 128 OPS+ Neither player is a huge question mark, and they should easily slot in as our 2nd and 3rd best offensive producers next season. Last season IMO Cantu was more consistent. As far as stats to back it up, it might be reflected in his slightly higher BA, but mostly because he seemed to consistently got it done whereas Danny Boy seemed to struggle at times. I would be interested in seeing the discrepancy between Uggla's numbers before and after the all-star break but I dont know where to find those stats.
January 27, 200917 yr Our projected lineup is: C Baker 1B Cantu/Gaby 2B Uggla 3B Cantu/McPherson/Helms SS Hanley LF Hermida CF Maybin RF Cody By no means should we be worried about our offense. As has been said, we played predominantly without Hammer and Jacobs was actually pretty lame by most standards. Baker is almost a guaranteed lock to be WAY better than what we had at catcher last season, that more than makes up for any loss of Hammer in lieu of Cody. Uggla, Hanley should OPS in the .850 and .900+ ranges. Hermida shouldn't completely suck at home this year... (please don't forget he was good on the road). Cantu is by no means asserting himself as "definite producer" he hasn't shown the ability to do it back-to-back in his career yet, so he falls into the "should be good for us" category. And I know this thread is about offense, but also to be considered is the net gains in runs defensively that this gives us. Gaby/Cantu over Jacobs is huge, Ross in RF and Hermida in LF is huge. Shouldn't really be worried.
January 27, 200917 yr Uggla was .938 in the first half and .739 in the second half. By comparison Cantu was .819 and .792.
January 27, 200917 yr Shouldn't really be worried. Hell no, we're jacked up. I'm wearing my fish cap today. :cool
January 27, 200917 yr Uggla was .938 in the first half and .739 in the second half. By comparison Cantu was .819 and .792. thanks. these numbers do not surprise me. if both players can perform at the same level next season we are in fine shape. I would like to see more consistency out of Uggla, though.
January 27, 200917 yr Rabbathan, what do you mean Cantu has been only OPSed 80 and 79 in the last two seasons? I'm confused. Also, Ross is an amazing defensive outfielder. His bat isn't great, but his elite glove makes him significantly more valuable than just about anybody the team can afford to replace him with. Uggla's bat was worth 27 runs above average last season. CHONE projects Uggla to regress (as he's not likely to be one of the best hitters in the national league again), but he's still projected to produce 13 runs above average in '09. Uggla is the least of our offensive worries next season.
January 27, 200917 yr Rabbathan, what do you mean Cantu has been only OPSed 80 and 79 in the last two seasons? I'm confused. he was talking about the league-adjusted OPS+ metric but those were his 07 and 06 numbers. Cantu was over .800 OPS last season and over the league average in OPS+ (100).
January 27, 200917 yr Uggla was .938 in the first half and .739 in the second half. By comparison Cantu was .819 and .792. thanks. these numbers do not surprise me. if both players can perform at the same level next season we are in fine shape. I would like to see more consistency out of Uggla, though. Uggla got injured in the second half... now, that being said, I don't expect a .930 OPS the whole season, but like an .850-.880 would be outstanding.
January 27, 200917 yr Rabbathan, what do you mean Cantu has been only OPSed 80 and 79 in the last two seasons? I'm confused. Also, Ross is an amazing defensive outfielder. His bat isn't great, but his elite glove makes him significantly more valuable than just about anybody the team can afford to replace him with. Uggla's bat was worth 27 runs above average last season. CHONE projects Uggla to regress (as he's not likely to be one of the best hitters in the national league again), but he's still projected to produce 13 runs above average in '09. Uggla is the least of our offensive worries next season. Cody Ross vs LHP .966 OPS Cody Ross vs RHP .738 OPS More than fine, given his glove. If we had that LH Corner OFer though, it'd be that much better.
January 27, 200917 yr Hey PitchingWins, I wouldn't worry too much about those splits. Any player should be expected to hit 8% worse against the same-hand. And it's going to be hard to find a corner outfielder (even left handed who only bats exclusively vs RHP), that would make up for the likely defensive loss in platooning Ross. Ross is good enough defensively (+17.6 runs above average last season), where you live with his mediocre offense and try to keep him on the field as much as possible. It would be nice, though, to have a LHB, as you suggested, in late inning/high leverage situations, against tough RHP -- but it doesn't necessarily have to be a corner outfielder.
January 27, 200917 yr Rabbathan, what do you mean Cantu has been only OPSed 80 and 79 in the last two seasons? I'm confused. he was talking about the league-adjusted OPS+ metric but those were his 07 and 06 numbers. Cantu was over .800 OPS last season and over the league average in OPS+ (100). thanks for the clarification
January 27, 200917 yr Hey PitchingWins, I wouldn't worry too much about those splits. Any player should be expected to hit 8% worse against the same-hand. And it's going to be hard to find a corner outfielder (even left handed who only bats exclusively vs RHP), that would make up for the likely defensive loss in platooning Ross. Ross is good enough defensively (+17.6 runs above average last season), where you live with his mediocre offense and try to keep him on the field as much as possible. It would be nice, though, to have a LHB, as you suggested, in late inning/high leverage situations, against tough RHP -- but it doesn't necessarily have to be a corner outfielder. I was trying to say that Ross's bat is better than mediocre offensively. Jim Edmonds, who would benefit from moving to a corner outfield spot would be more than capable. You could move Hermida back to RF when Edmonds comes in to cover for Edmonds' lack of defensive prowess. Eric Hinske would be nice and can also play 1B/3B and corner outfield. Griffey JR is a pipe dream and if he thought we were enough of a contender, he'd take it... Daryle Ward could be a cheap choice. The options are out there and they're all capable of filling that role and providing average (or slightly above) defense in short stints and starters' off days.
January 28, 200917 yr No love for Cody, 1st of In 07 while being injury filled in 173 PA's he hit .335 with an OBP of .411 and OPS+ of 173 disregarding the sample size of only 173 AB's And in 08 .250/.316/.488 and OPS+ 109 He is pretty capable offesnivly and has amazing talent in the OF he's a prototype Corner OF IMO with a plus on defense Reallly he just needs to cut down on the SO and he'll be fine
January 28, 200917 yr I was trying to say that Ross's bat is better than mediocre offensively. Jim Edmonds, who would benefit from moving to a corner outfield spot would be more than capable. You could move Hermida back to RF when Edmonds comes in to cover for Edmonds' lack of defensive prowess. Eric Hinske would be nice and can also play 1B/3B and corner outfield. Griffey JR is a pipe dream and if he thought we were enough of a contender, he'd take it... Daryle Ward could be a cheap choice. The options are out there and they're all capable of filling that role and providing average (or slightly above) defense in short stints and starters' off days. I really like Hinske as a fit here, as well, but it looks like the Pirates are going to sign him. http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pb...ld-mix-too.aspx http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/...ing_hinske.html No love for Cody, 1st of In 07 while being injury filled in 173 PA's he hit .335 with an OBP of .411 and OPS+ of 173 disregarding the sample size of only 173 AB's And in 08 .250/.316/.488 and OPS+ 109 He is pretty capable offesnivly and has amazing talent in the OF he's a prototype Corner OF IMO with a plus on defense Reallly he just needs to cut down on the SO and he'll be fine I'm guessing you mean a 2007 OPS of 1.064? Also, I really don't expect him to cut down on the strikeouts, but he'll still be just fine offensively.
January 28, 200917 yr Can't really fault Hinske for going to Pitt... I'd love to try to convince him to stay in FLA this season though, he's a cool player.
January 28, 200917 yr I think people forget uggla's ankle injury right before the as break and I think that had somethingto do with his drop off. I'm not saying he would have kept up the pace he was at but I don't think he would have been as bad as he was.
January 28, 200917 yr I think people forget uggla's ankle injury right before the as break and I think that had somethingto do with his drop off. I'm not saying he would have kept up the pace he was at but I don't think he would have been as bad as he was. I don't know think it was the only reason he had that drop off in production, he is hasn't being the epitome of consistency in his career, but it must have factored in, the guy was in an absolute tear before that injury. Let's see what he does this season.
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