The season is only a few months away. We have traded away Hammer and Jacobs. Is it me or does anyone else a lil bit worried about our offense? We still have a lot of good players that will produce offensively but in my opinion we're one good bat away from being a good offensive team. Any thoughts?

Erick's future response:

 

"Emilio Bonifacio, of course. "

Manny Ramirez imo

 

 

inb4peopleyellatme

The season is only a few months away. We have traded away Hammer and Jacobs. Is it me or does anyone else a lil bit worried about our offense? We still have a lot of good players that will produce offensively but in my opinion we're one good bat away from being a good offensive team. Any thoughts?

Not worried at all. We're already a good offense.

 

The team is going to get over 100 OPS points out of the catcher slot than we did last year which alone is going to make up for most of the offense lost. 1B is not taking a hit as we'll just exchange OBP for slugging, 2B, SS, 3B, and RF (Ross) are constant, Hermida is going to be better (not interested in fighting about this), and Maybin can probably match the .750ish OPS out of center field. As for the bench, we still don't have a good second catcher, nothing new there. Amezaga is constant. McPherson is going to bash and will hold his own, Helms is constant, which leaves EB taking over for Andino and the other scrubs we had on the roster all year so that should be a nominal upgrade.

 

This is really not a problem, and we don't need another position player save for an upgraded backup catcher. The team will turn great if Hermida wants to hit .870 again, and someone from G. Sanchez/Baker/Maybin pushes above an .800 OPS. It's not going to happen in free agency. It's trusting our youth to hit to what the scouts and minor league stats think they are capable of.

Yeah, that bat we are missing is called Jeremy Hermida. If he rebounds from last year, this line up is set. Uggla, Hanley, Cantu, Ross will all mash away. Baker I believe will be solid, but not great. Interesting to watch - Maybin. First base is probably a platoon of whoever is the hotter hitter.

They had a strong offense last year. Hammer didn't play all that much and Jacobs was hit or miss. They needed defense. I just hope the defense can improve.

The team is going to get over 100 OPS points out of the catcher slot than we did last year which alone is going to make up for most of the offense lost.

 

How do you figure that?

The team is going to get over 100 OPS points out of the catcher slot than we did last year which alone is going to make up for most of the offense lost.

 

How do you figure that?

Marlins catchers hit .251/.323/.340 (664) last year. At worst, Baker should be hitting right handers at .750ish (this is 150 OPS points down from 2008, so we can see the enormous growth potential here), and I still find it likely the Marlins acquire another catcher to help with lefties which will bring that up as well. Pudge would be perfect here, he would hit left handers .725-.750 easily and drastically help Baker ease into a starting role. But that's another topic. The point is, this is going way way way up if Baker shows up at all. I'm optimistic.

 

This kind of offensive production over 600 PA adds to an absolutely enormous offensive boost. This is a huge huge upgrade. It is likely Uggla comes down a little bit, and we lose a little bit at 1B because even with at least 30-40 OBP going to be coming at 1B, we're still losing a lot of slugging. So let's say Uggla hits .830 and not .880 (I'm rounding these), and 1B goes down around "25" points offensively, from the Jacobs to Gaby/McDallas shift. Improvement at catcher is making up this offense alone. Further, Couple this with Hermida improving on a .725 OPS, and the rest of the team matching their relative production, it's very easy to argue the offense is going to be better, and be more consistent (not HR or nothing), in 2009 than it was in 2008.

The season is only a few months away. We have traded away Hammer and Jacobs. Is it me or does anyone else a lil bit worried about our offense? We still have a lot of good players that will produce offensively but in my opinion we're one good bat away from being a good offensive team. Any thoughts?

 

Considering that Hammer was MIA what are we missing there, and Jacobs' impact can be matched. So I am not terribly worried about the offense.

To further exponentiate on the OF situation

 

RF last year we got a .718 OPS

CF a .750 OPS

LF a .833 OPS.

 

I mean, chances are, we out-produce those numbers. Cody's good for another ~.800 OPS. Even if Hermida "only" does .800 aswell, tack on whatever the mid/high-mid .700 OPS our 4th OFer puts up, and we're matching the .791 production we got out of CF and LF combined. And the chances Maybin/Amezaga (Assuming he's out back up CF) out-producing a .718 OPS is severe.

 

We had the 4th best OPS+ in the NL last year, tied-6th in the majors. We're still easily a top-10 MLB offensive team. If Hermida shows up and Maybin/Baker/Gaby just do "OK" we easily improve off last year and could become a top-3 offensive team in the majors.

 

But unlike last year, our pitching could easily be top-5 (sadly, with injuries, it could also be bottom-5, but every team has injury risks). Not only are we improving out starting rotation, we're also improving our defense (By scrapping Jake and shifting the OF, we're improving our defense by atleast 10-20 runs next season), further improving our pitching.

 

Next year will be very, very exciting

The team is going to get over 100 OPS points out of the catcher slot than we did last year which alone is going to make up for most of the offense lost.

 

How do you figure that?

Marlins catchers hit .251/.323/.340 (664) last year. At worst, Baker should be hitting right handers at .750ish (this is 150 OPS points down from 2008, so we can see the enormous growth potential here), and I still find it likely the Marlins acquire another catcher to help with lefties which will bring that up as well. Pudge would be perfect here, he would hit left handers .725-.750 easily and drastically help Baker ease into a starting role. But that's another topic. The point is, this is going way way way up if Baker shows up at all. I'm optimistic.

 

This kind of offensive production over 600 PA adds to an absolutely enormous offensive boost. This is a huge huge upgrade. It is likely Uggla comes down a little bit, and we lose a little bit at 1B because even with at least 30-40 OBP going to be coming at 1B, we're still losing a lot of slugging. So let's say Uggla hits .830 and not .880 (I'm rounding these), and 1B goes down around "25" points offensively, from the Jacobs to Gaby/McDallas shift. Improvement at catcher is making up this offense alone. Further, Couple this with Hermida improving on a .725 OPS, and the rest of the team matching their relative production, it's very easy to argue the offense is going to be better, and be more consistent (not HR or nothing), in 2009 than it was in 2008.

 

Yeah, not necessarily disagreeing with you, but Baker is going to see a HUGE increase in playing time...you figure about double what he saw in 2008, so with that we will probably see a decrease in production, naturally. Plus, he BABIP'd over .380 against RHP in '08, which is more reason to think we might see decreased production. I'm expecting Baker to have a huge dropoff, probably somewhere around 700ish OPS. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think we've seen the best of him. I know you agree with me about seeing decreased production with Bake, but I just think it will be an even larger decrease than you do.

 

And even if we do bring Pudge in, which is doubtful at this point...I don't think we'll see a 100 OPS increase at C. I'm thinking more like 50. Either way, we're going to improve at catcher from last year (not hard to do, lol). I dunno if that is enough to cover lost production of Jake and Hammer. Most likely not. I don't think our offense is in trouble, I'm still pretty optimistic about it...I just don't think it will be as good as last year's, assuming we are done making moves this offseason

With a normalized BABIP, he's at a mid to high .700 OPS against RHP (too lazy to find/re-do the math again)

 

High chances stuff like his BB/K, LD%, ect drop down as well to his minor league numbers. But this just means he's not going to OPS in the .900's again. I mean, he's basically a sure-fire bet to put up at least a .720 OPS against RHP (aka the average OPS of a C this decade). It is far from being overly optimistic to expect a .750.

With a normalized BABIP, he's at a mid to high .700 OPS against RHP (too lazy to find/re-do the math again)

 

High chances stuff like his BB/K, LD%, ect drop down as well to his minor league numbers. But this just means he's not going to OPS in the .900's again. I mean, he's basically a sure-fire bet to put up at least a .720 OPS against RHP (aka the average OPS of a C this decade). It is far from being overly optimistic to expect a .750.

 

Even if Baker puts up a 720 vs. RHP , and you throw in Pudge who could put up say...725 vs. LHP is still only an increase of about 60 from last yea. Of course, they could both do better, or they could both do worse. We'll have to see. We still don't even know if we're getting Pudge

Theoretically speaking the offense should be better probably a few homers less but the OBP should increase and the K's should lessen, at least that is what this off season was about. Baseball is however a funny game. Maybin is better than anything we had out there for the last 2 years. His bat in the lineup for the whole season along with Baker's are enough of an upgrade by itself. Yes we are counting heavily on a the bat of Hermida, which should come back to life. However with Raynor, Morrison and Cousins there is enough insurance otherwise to take over Lf in the case Hermida is an absolute flop. My concern is putting Ross in RF everyday, I love Cody's fire and he is absolutely a solid hitter but I really believe Cody is better as a 4th outfielder. Gaby should prove to be a reliable hitter at 1st base. He may not hit the amount of homers that Jake gave us but he will lessen the K's and should be a better run producer. The 2009 Marlins will probably follow suit with Gabby Sanchez, less Homeruns more production.

Like everyone else, not worried at all. Hammer barely played and his/Gonzo's production should outdone by Maybin and Jake was a terrible hitter who hurt our offense more often than he helped it.

Maybin is better than anything we had out there for the last 2 years.

 

I don't think Maybin will even match Cody's production from last year. The only other CFer that has done better in a Marlin's jersey is Preston Wilson and possibly Devon White*. He was the 4th best defensive CFer in all of baseball and had the 9th best hitter. Certainly Maybin can field but I think we'll have to wait a couple of years before he surpasses what Cody was able to do last year.

 

*I got bored and decided to look it up. Didn't realize Preston was so bad defensively. He was at best average. I'd say

 

1 = Devon White's 1996 (Cody was slightly better offensively, Devon was better defensively by a wider margin, and he also stole 22 bags at a good rate)

2 = Cody Ross's 2008

3-5 = Wilson's 1999-2001

And then after this a big drop off to

6 = Juan Pierre's 2003

and then another big drop off to utter crap.

 

EDIT:

 

Actually, further looking at the numbers, Devon's defense had come down. Certainly in his prime he was greatly above Cody but by the time he came to FL, he was basically Cody's equal. At this point it comes down to bat v.s. SB, and I'd take Cody's bat.

Erick's future response:

 

"Emilio Bonifacio, of course. "

 

 

Not really. I like Bonifacio, as a bench player. As of right now, Bonifacio wouldn't be starting at any position on the field...thus, our offense is fine.

 

We won't have a Matt Treanor catching everyday anymore...while Jacobs slugged, he rarely got on base; Gaby's a patient hitter. Right now, as it stands, 2B, SS, and 3B are the same as last year, which leaves a full year of Maybin in CF...he's a rookie so that means he's unproven, but if healthy, it's nice to know we won't have to start Amezaga in CF anymore. That leaves the corner outfield spots, and I can tell you something...I don't know what Hermida is going to do, but there's no way in hell his splits look the same this upcoming year (almost unheard of his '08 splits). Just hope for the road version.

Not worried at all

 

Hanley will put up big numbers as usuall

Maybin should prduce at least a .270 AVG with plenty off steals and runs

Cantu hopefully repeast his breakout season

Hopefully we resign Uggla so he can bring the Power

and finally

Hermida should have a breakout season especially since this might be his last season with the team if he dosen't show his talent

 

Plus Cody Gaby and Baker will produce good offense numbers

I was initially worried about offense right after Jacobs and Hammer were traded, but in the past three months, I've become more comfortable with the new and (hopefully) improved defense. The Rays didn't need alot of offense to compete in the AL East last season, and while we may not be close to them in every defensive category yet, the fact that we're following their model of success (and the '03 Fish) is promising.

I'm not worried, however, I wouldn't be oppposed to one more big bat in the lineup. Who that will be considering our payroll and cheap FO I'm not sure? I'm just excited for everything to start rolling so we can stop speculating and see what's really up. Go Marlins!

Let's think about the offense of our opponents. It figures to be down impressively with a little better defense and much better pitching. I can't imagine why the Marlins wouldn't be favored to win the NL East ... at least by us.

The offense will take a slight hit compared to '08. Last year we were about 4th or 5th and this year we should be a couple of notches below that.

 

I think the aggregate of Cantu, Hanley, Uggla, Hermida and Ross will hit about the same as they did last year.

 

Baker is better than Treanor but wont hit as well as he did in '08 but there should be a net slight improvement.

 

Hammer and Jacobs had about 950 PAs at about .825 OPS. I think their replacements in the lineup will be in the mid 700s so there's a decrease there.

Like everyone else, not worried at all. Hammer barely played and his/Gonzo's production should outdone by Maybin and Jake was a terrible hitter who hurt our offense more often than he helped it.

 

This is really a key issue here, and I agree with this assessment. K machine, and they were always so predictable.

 

Another point was made about exchanging slugging for on-base. This was certainly part of this off-season strategy.

 

Cant wait for the season to start.

The offense will take a slight hit compared to '08. Last year we were about 4th or 5th and this year we should be a couple of notches below that.

 

I think the aggregate of Cantu, Hanley, Uggla, Hermida and Ross will hit about the same as they did last year.

 

Baker is better than Treanor but wont hit as well as he did in '08 but there should be a net slight improvement.

 

Hammer and Jacobs had about 950 PAs at about .825 OPS. I think their replacements in the lineup will be in the mid 700s so there's a decrease there.

I'm not sure we will see a decrease in production from the loss of Hammer, Jacobs and Gonzo. Gonzo only had 29 PA less than Hammer and basically shared LF with him, so I think he should be counted in this.

 

In 1322 PA, they combined for a .253/.330/.471. That doesn't look great when you put it next to the 1B+LF league average of .274/.355/.466, but that's not the point.

 

I think Maybin and Gaby/McDallas combined will be able to put up a BA and OBP closer if at the league average BA and OBP, which the old group was well short of. We'll lack in slugging in comparison, but SLG is nowhere near as important as OBP.

 

Now, I'm not saying we won't end up seeing a decrease from their loss but am saying that I'm not sure we will.

The offense will take a slight hit compared to '08. Last year we were about 4th or 5th and this year we should be a couple of notches below that.

 

I think the aggregate of Cantu, Hanley, Uggla, Hermida and Ross will hit about the same as they did last year.

 

Baker is better than Treanor but wont hit as well as he did in '08 but there should be a net slight improvement.

 

Hammer and Jacobs had about 950 PAs at about .825 OPS. I think their replacements in the lineup will be in the mid 700s so there's a decrease there.

I'm not sure we will see a decrease in production from the loss of Hammer, Jacobs and Gonzo. Gonzo only had 29 PA less than Hammer and basically shared LF with him, so I think he should be counted in this.

 

In 1322 PA, they combined for a .253/.330/.471. That doesn't look great when you put it next to the 1B+LF league average of .274/.355/.466, but that's not the point.

 

I think Maybin and Gaby/McDallas combined will be able to put up a BA and OBP closer if at the league average BA and OBP, which the old group was well short of. We'll lack in slugging in comparison, but SLG is nowhere near as important as OBP.

 

Now, I'm not saying we won't end up seeing a decrease from their loss but am saying that I'm not sure we will.

Those 1322 PAs with the .330 / .471 will be replaced by rookies and it's rare for rookies that put up those kind of numbers. For example the past 9 seasons only 15 rookies have done it (OPS of .801+ with a minimum of 400 PAs) so it's less than 2 per season.