May 4, 200917 yr And I think Jeremy is going to have to get that number close. The 180s may be acceptable. The 170s or 160s may not be enough to keep the job. I like the patience and that he is drawing walks, but I think the FO and coaches are going to be looking for production (runs) from him. Especially seeing Uggla may very well be gone next season. They are going to have to replace his production elsewhere. If one or more of the prospects develope enough, then Hermida is going to have to produce to save his job. He sure isn't going to keep it with his glove. Production = accounting for runs. All the other numbers are great to mull over for all the stats people, but runs wins games. BTW Do you think Pujols wins that MVP if he accounts for 189 runs? Or 192? He met and surpassed that unwritten goal. It's a large part of what made him the most valuable to his team's success. As much as the Marlins' FO tends to do some bonehead (no Bonifcio pun intended) moves sometimes, I would be quite surprised, and rage uncontrollably, if they actually made a decision to not keep Hermida based on Runs scored and RBI. If Hermida keeps up his walk-line up at this pace but has less than 160 or so R+RBI, and they base the decision on that, that would be absurd. And bobbob already completely shut down your argument about Pujols there.
May 4, 200917 yr But you're also kidding yourself if you think BABIP always matched what expected BABIP is. That is where "lucky" and "unlucky" comes in. It wont match but it should be looked at. The problem I have with the "luck" explanation is when someone automatically explains variances in babip or in other similar stats by saying it's "luck" related without looking at other relevant factors.
May 4, 200917 yr Joe Carter's career makes me angry... You should check out Terry Pendleton's career line. It's magical. His MVP is the worst over the last 80 years. Pedroia was probably even worse.
May 4, 200917 yr Joe Carter's career makes me angry... You should check out Terry Pendleton's career line. It's magical. His MVP is the worst over the last 80 years. Pedroia was probably even worse. Pedroia fell ass backwards into it because nobody stepped up around the league for a fullseason. Bonds was clearly a more valuable player the year pendleton won. Not even close.
May 4, 200917 yr Joe Carter's career makes me angry... You should check out Terry Pendleton's career line. It's magical. His MVP is the worst over the last 80 years. Pedroia was probably even worse. Pedroia fell ass backwards into it because nobody stepped up around the league for a fullseason. Bonds was clearly a more valuable player the year pendleton won. Not even close. Pedroia wasn't even the MVP of his own team last year.
May 4, 200917 yr Pedroia wasn't even the MVP of his own team last year. Pedroia plays an excellent 2b, and his performance at the keystone was more valuable than youk's. Mauer shouldve been the MVP, but pedroia was a top 3 guy, considering all of the injuries to the really valuable guys. I also forgot about eckersley's MVP, that was terrible...
May 4, 200917 yr Pedroia wasn't even the MVP of his own team last year. Pedroia plays an excellent 2b, and his performance at the keystone was more valuable than youk's. Mauer shouldve been the MVP, but pedroia was a top 3 guy, considering all of the injuries to the really valuable guys. I also forgot about eckersley's MVP, that was terrible... Pedroia: .326/.376/.493 Youkilis: .312/.390/.569 Youkilis was also the one who provided versatility when Mike Lowell went down, playing 36 games at 3B.
May 4, 200917 yr Pedroia wasn't even the MVP of his own team last year. Pedroia plays an excellent 2b, and his performance at the keystone was more valuable than youk's. Mauer shouldve been the MVP, but pedroia was a top 3 guy, considering all of the injuries to the really valuable guys. I also forgot about eckersley's MVP, that was terrible... Pedroia: .326/.376/.493 Youkilis: .312/.390/.569 Youkilis was also the one who provided versatility when Mike Lowell went down, playing 36 games at 3B. The counter to this argument, Erick, is positional scarcity... however, I still agree that Youk was more valuable than Pedroia... but that neither was more valuable than Mauer
May 4, 200917 yr Pedroia wasn't even the MVP of his own team last year. Pedroia plays an excellent 2b, and his performance at the keystone was more valuable than youk's. Mauer shouldve been the MVP, but pedroia was a top 3 guy, considering all of the injuries to the really valuable guys. I also forgot about eckersley's MVP, that was terrible... Pedroia: .326/.376/.493 Youkilis: .312/.390/.569 Youkilis was also the one who provided versatility when Mike Lowell went down, playing 36 games at 3B. The counter to this argument, Erick, is positional scarcity... however, I still agree that Youk was more valuable than Pedroia... but that neither was more valuable than Mauer I agree with that, as well.
May 4, 200917 yr I'd say replacing youk's performance wouldve been a heck of a lot easier than pedroia's all things considered. Really, pedroia and youk were about even, and Mauer was ahead of both. Had a-rod, kinsler, quentin or bradly had full seasons, they were all more valuable than any of them, probably.
May 4, 200917 yr I'd say replacing youk's performance wouldve been a heck of a lot easier than pedroia's all things considered. Really, pedroia and youk were about even, and Mauer was ahead of both. Had a-rod, kinsler, quentin or bradly had full seasons, they were all more valuable than any of them, probably. Yeah, Quentin was a real candidate up until his injury. He was getting mentioned plenty, as well. Just a shame he got injured.
May 4, 200917 yr Joe Carter's career makes me angry... You should check out Terry Pendleton's career line. It's magical. His MVP is the worst over the last 80 years. Pedroia was probably even worse. Pedroia fell ass backwards into it because nobody stepped up around the league for a fullseason. Bonds was clearly a more valuable player the year pendleton won. Not even close. You may be right and Pendleton was more undeserving than Pedroia but Pendeleton had a better year in '91 than Pedroia had in '08. For Pedroia to win the MVP with an OPS+ of 122 (23rd in the AL) is ridiculous.
May 4, 200917 yr He's a really good defensive 2b too. Not anywhere near as bad as pendleton's choice. There was just no one else in the al that clearly deserved it, so he backed into it.
May 5, 200917 yr Ok, I said I wasn't going to go on about how wrong that was, but sorry. Rating a player based only on situations that will always at some point be completely out of his control is ridiculous. You're taking it too literally. I'm not meaning to base him strictly on that stat. Far from it. Especially seeing the runs scored can be pretty much out of his hands. I'm just saying it's a bottom line stat and will be looked at. It is pretty well known Hermida's production is going to be scrutinized this season, and production is runs. As far as I'm concerned Hermida can walk every time he comes up. But if he isn't contributing to runs crossing the plate, he isn't producing. Or paraphrasing the words of the FO, he isn't "out playing his contract." I'm not a stats guy and am not going to get into a long discussion with you on it. You win, hands down, my friend. This is just one of those bottom line numbers that will be evaluated when the time comes. And that number isn't as far out of reach as you think either. Both Hanley and Uggla achieved it in '07.
May 5, 200917 yr 2 stats that should never be used to evaluate an individual player. I agree, but don't try to tell that to Uggla. When asked in early April (pre-game by Minervini or Forte, IIRC) what his goals were for this season, he said (and I paraphrase) "Score 100 runs and drive in 100 runs." See ball, hit ball. The thing with runs scored and RBIs is that they're not as important as the old timers think but they are far more important, particularly RBIs, than what the younger fans think. Going back to Uggla's goal, can you name players that had 100 RBIs and scored 100 runs in the same season (Uggla's goal) and had a bad season? For each guy you name I'll name 20 that did it and had good seasons. I think you and 2003 are seeing it more like I meant it to be seen. As the season wears on the other stats will, or should, coincide with this number. It's just a bottom line stat that can be looked at to get a good idea of how a player produced without having to go over a novel sized collection of all the stats. "But he's walking like crazy and his OBP/OPS is skyrocketing." (slight exagerration of the quotes on my part, but you get the idea) Big whoopsie. That tells me he isn't being aggressive enough. Granted, thin line there between being very patient at the plate, working the counts, and taking what the pitcher is giving; or being aggressive enough to swinging at some of those close pitches and making contact, hopefully to be contributing to the score. Those close pitches that are being called ball 4 right now are going to turn into called strike 3, my most hated out. I'm a total believer in protecting the plate, not hoping the ump sees it the same way I do. Jeremy has always seemed pretty lackadaisical in the field, and right now that trait is showing up at the plate.
May 5, 200917 yr 2 stats that should never be used to evaluate an individual player. I agree, but don't try to tell that to Uggla. When asked in early April (pre-game by Minervini or Forte, IIRC) what his goals were for this season, he said (and I paraphrase) "Score 100 runs and drive in 100 runs." See ball, hit ball. The thing with runs scored and RBIs is that they're not as important as the old timers think but they are far more important, particularly RBIs, than what the younger fans think. Going back to Uggla's goal, can you name players that had 100 RBIs and scored 100 runs in the same season (Uggla's goal) and had a bad season? For each guy you name I'll name 20 that did it and had good seasons. First off, I wasn't saying that having 100 RBI and 100 Runs is likely for a bad player. Last year, 13 hitters reached both 100 R and 100 RBI, all of them had a OPS+ of at least 120. More over, it's about how players who had better years than many of those guys didn't reach that goal. There were 55 players with an OPS+ of at least 120 who didn't reach that goal, most, if not all, better than Bobby Abreu, who did. And as far as Runs+RBI=200, would you say Chipper Jones, Milton Bradly, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Lee, Joe Mauer, Matt Holliday, J.D. Drew, Brian Giles, Brian McCann, Ian Kinsler, Nick Markekis, Jack Cust, Vlad Guerrero, Andre Ethier, Adam Dunn, Xavier Nady, Prince Fielder, Ryan Domit, Jason Giambi, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Magglio Ordonez, Evan Longoria, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Pena, Joey Votto, Raul Ibanez, Adam Laroche, Alfonso Soriano, and Jim Thome all didn't have good years or were worse than Bobby Abreu? There are a good number of All-Stars there. AL MVP Dustin Pedroia barely made it with 201. Again, you are reading too much into my statement. Think in broarder terms.
May 5, 200917 yr And I think Jeremy is going to have to get that number close. The 180s may be acceptable. The 170s or 160s may not be enough to keep the job. I like the patience and that he is drawing walks, but I think the FO and coaches are going to be looking for production (runs) from him. Especially seeing Uggla may very well be gone next season. They are going to have to replace his production elsewhere. If one or more of the prospects develope enough, then Hermida is going to have to produce to save his job. He sure isn't going to keep it with his glove. Production = accounting for runs. All the other numbers are great to mull over for all the stats people, but runs wins games. BTW Do you think Pujols wins that MVP if he accounts for 189 runs? Or 192? He met and surpassed that unwritten goal. It's a large part of what made him the most valuable to his team's success. As much as the Marlins' FO tends to do some bonehead (no Bonifcio pun intended) moves sometimes, I would be quite surprised, and rage uncontrollably, if they actually made a decision to not keep Hermida based on Runs scored and RBI. If Hermida keeps up his walk-line up at this pace but has less than 160 or so R+RBI, and they base the decision on that, that would be absurd. And bobbob already completely shut down your argument about Pujols there. I didn't say that, Only the ones that want to disect each and every little stat are saying that. I said it is a bottom line number. And it will be looked at. But as the season wears on and that number is 160 or 170, you can't think those other numbers that everyone else puts so much weight on are going to be good. A bottom line number, one that gives an overview of the season.
May 5, 200917 yr Pedroia wasn't even the MVP of his own team last year. And he can't hit the high fastball. Sorry. But I think that commercial is kinda cute.
May 5, 200917 yr I think you and 2003 are seeing it more like I meant it to be seen. As the season wears on the other stats will, or should, coincide with this number. It's just a bottom line stat that can be looked at to get a good idea of how a player produced without having to go over a novel sized collection of all the stats. "But he's walking like crazy and his OBP/OPS is skyrocketing." (slight exagerration of the quotes on my part, but you get the idea) Big whoopsie. That tells me he isn't being aggressive enough. Granted, thin line there between being very patient at the plate, working the counts, and taking what the pitcher is giving; or being aggressive enough to swinging at some of those close pitches and making contact, hopefully to be contributing to the score. Those close pitches that are being called ball 4 right now are going to turn into called strike 3, my most hated out. I'm a total believer in protecting the plate, not hoping the ump sees it the same way I do. Jeremy has always seemed pretty lackadaisical in the field, and right now that trait is showing up at the plate. Seriously? .... I mean... seriously, Bob? You're actually going to take away from the best thing a hitter can do in baseball... See, you're missing the fact that walks are the single most underrated result a batter can pull, and I can't even figure out why, to this day, it still is. Hermida is taking pitches he can't do much with, want proof? (these are still subject to small sample sizes, but illustrate the point) On the first pitch, Hermida is batting .429 1-1 count: .333 2-1 count: .600 and, he's drawn a walk 14(!!!) times in a full count thus far this season, that's working the count, that's stupid amounts of valuable. Just to put that number in perspective, he's had a full count 27 times this season, thus far, and has reached base more than half the time he's gotten there. The fact is, Hermida can hit the pitches he likes, and does so quite well. But see, the mistake you're making is by saying he needs to be aggressive... there are two reasons that's a HUGE mistake... a) He was "aggressive" last year... how'd that work out for him? (Not as bad as some would lead us to believe, but still not great) b) It's not his game... Why in God's name would you have Hermida get away from what's making him successful? Lou alluded to this earlier, but if he keeps walking at this rate, pitchers are going to start throwing more hittable pitches so they don't give in to walking him... as seen by the stats above, Hermida should thrive on that. I honestly don't have a clue as to why anybody would be critical of Hermida's performance thus far this year... And still, you can go back to that 200 runs recorded stat, and... it's still ultimately meaningless. If you're suggesting that if Hermida continues to get on base at a .350 or above clip, he should be punished/shouldn't be retained because the offensive "juggernauts" that are Amezaga/Gload/Maybin (to start the season, for the most part) and Bonifacio(ut) when he is eventually dropped in the 8 spot and the Pitchers spot don't drive him in, you're nuts. Because, if you want him to reach this magical/arbitrary level of production, it's going to require a LOT of help from his teammates. And, as for the RBIs, while Cantu and Uggla are both cool, they're both pretty much average/slightly below in the OBP category, which is likely to mean fewer RBI chances for him. That's not to say he shouldn't get around 70-80 but, again, to say that he should be held accountable for the guys behind him not driving him in 100+ times is asinine, sorry, but it is. I don't think you're really getting what you're saying versus what you're meaning to say. What you're actually saying: Jeremy Hermida needs guys to get on base in front of him a lot so that he can drive them in 80+ times and then Hermida needs to get on base a lot and have the guys behind him drive him in oodles(90+) of times. Moral: Jeremy Hermida is responsible for HALF of the outcomes in the above statement. He's responsible for hitting with RISP and getting on base. His teammates are responsible for actually getting on base and driving HIM in. What you're meaning to say: Jeremy Hermida should generally hit/slug well and get on base often enough to provide his team with the best chance of winning ballgames. His teammates are and will be inherently responsible for the at bats preceding and following his at bats though. Moral: Jeremy Hermida is only responsible for the production of Jeremy Hermida, he cannot be held accountable for what those behind him do or fail to do. He can only help the team in terms of preserving outs and prolonging innings, and reaching base to give his teammates RBI chances. Whether or not he scores when he reaches base is ultimately determined by the acts of the individuals following him in the batting order. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/battin...mp;endDate=null Look at that list and realize... Jermida never will be a Pujols, Hanley or the like. Instead, take a step back and look at guys like Brian Giles, Brad Hawpe, Conor Jackson, Shane Victorino. Those guys didn't put up huge power numbers, but they got on base a lot. Hermida should fall closer to the first two guys than the second, but look at their RBI/R totals. And to go REALLY old school, I'm sure you're familiar with a certain book by a Mr. Theodore Samuel Williams? One in which he imagines a grid of 77 baseballs and opined about what he could or couldn't do with each and every one of those. This is like that, on a much smaller scale. Hermida's patience isn't a sign of laziness, it's a sign of "If I swing at that pitch, I'm probably not going to be able to do much with it, so I'll take it and see if I can do something more with the next one" Look at the early/ahead in the count splits. When he can get something he likes, he's in business, otherwise, he fouls/takes until he either walks or gets something he DOES like. It's selective aggressiveness and it pays huge dividends.
May 5, 200917 yr PWG, this is I think perhaps your best post I've ever read. I can live without some of the tone and absolutism but nonetheless this is a great post. The only thing that I feel you might rethink is the line, "...And still, you can go back to that 200 runs recorded stat, and... it's still ultimately meaningless..." I would suggest that if ballplayers themselves and those in the game (GMs, scouts, managers and coaches etc.) have used this simple standard - actually it's 100/100 but that is irrelevant - (and I'm not applying it to Hermida or anyone else) for as long as I can remember, and probably before, regardless of what empirical evidence you can accumulate all of which is valid, can't there be room in how you view the game to accept that it is a standard within the game (among those in the game, Uggla as a case in point) and will be for years to come? Your well thought out points and this simple standard do not have to be mutually exclusive. Understand, like we all do, the game has its own shorthand and this is one of them. It isn't meant to invalidate anything else. These things can live in peaceful harmony. It's like the 200 hit threshold. It's meaningless too considering all the variables that can affect it, but it's used everyday... Great post though, nice job.
May 5, 200917 yr See, you're missing the fact that walks are the single most underrated result a batter can pull, and I can't even figure out why, to this day, it still is. Why are walks underrated? What makes you say this? If anything I think walks are overrated because in the OBP calculation walks are valued the same as singles, doubles, triples and home runs but in reality walks are not nearly as valuable as these other things. So in the OBP calcualtion walks are overvalued. Where are they undervalued? For the posters with reading comprehension issues, note that I did not walks are a bad thing. Walks are a good thing. I'm just saying they're overrated. There's a differerence.
May 5, 200917 yr PWG, this is I think perhaps your best post I've ever read. I can live without some of the tone and absolutism but nonetheless this is a great post. The only thing that I feel you might rethink is the line, "...And still, you can go back to that 200 runs recorded stat, and... it's still ultimately meaningless..." I would suggest that if ballplayers themselves and those in the game (GMs, scouts, managers and coaches etc.) have used this simple standard - actually it's 100/100 but that is irrelevant - (and I'm not applying it to Hermida or anyone else) for as long as I can remember, and probably before, regardless of what empirical evidence you can accumulate all of which is valid, can't there be room in how you view the game to accept that it is a standard within the game (among those in the game, Uggla as a case in point) and will be for years to come? Your well thought out points and this simple standard do not have to be mutually exclusive. Understand, like we all do, the game has its own shorthand and this is one of them. It isn't meant to invalidate anything else. These things can live in peaceful harmony. It's like the 200 hit threshold. It's meaningless too considering all the variables that can affect it, but it's used everyday... Great post though, nice job. I used the term "ultimately meaningless" in regards to Hermida's future. I thought the context was established, but I guess not... but my point is, in rewritten form, In regards to Jeremy's future with the club, that 200 R milemarker is meaningless, in and of itself, it's the peripherals that matter.
May 5, 200917 yr See, you're missing the fact that walks are the single most underrated result a batter can pull, and I can't even figure out why, to this day, it still is. Why are walks underrated? What makes you say this? If anything I think walks are overrated because in the OBP calculation walks are valued the same as singles, doubles, triples and home runs but in reality walks are not nearly as valuable as these other things. So in the OBP calcualtion walks are overvalued. Where are they undervalued? For the posters with reading comprehension issues, note that I did not walks are a bad thing. Walks are a good thing. I'm just saying they're overrated. There's a differerence. I'm not talking about in any statistical relevance that they're overvalued... BUT in the OBP calculation, you have to look in the context that OBP is nothing more than the amount of times someone reached base. So, a double IS the same as a single in that they are both non-outs. All OBP is is percentage of times the dood didn't make an out. Walks are undervalued when someone like Broncobob (and there are many like him) that turn around and say "Whoopsie Doo, his OPS shoots up" without realizing that OBP is a strong byproduct of pitch recognition and a certain thought process by the better where he realizes he can't do much with a pitch so he tries again. Yes, yes, contact is cool and EVERYONE would prefer he not strikes out 21 times, but when those 21 Ks are hand-in-hand with 21 BBs, and more than half those walks are in full counts (2 strikes being the important thing to take from that) you can see that Hermida's walk-taking ability is amazing... he's not walking because he's lazy, he's walking because he knows it's going to get him on base versus maybe swinging at an earlier pitch he didn't feel comfortable swinging at. That translates to having a selection of pitches he's locked in on, which in-turn will translate to higher SLG/BA ratings when pitchers get tired of wasting 10 pitches to MAYBE get him out.
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