1. Move Hanley to left field (Alfonso Soriano is one of the highest paid players in baseball & made the IF to OF move, so can Hanley)

 

2. Trade Hermida for bullpen help

 

Amezaga at short + Hanley in left = much improved defense (vs. Hermida in left and Hanley at short)

 

 

NO

 

 

That was an excellently constructed retort...

Is he supposed to chase bad pitches to try for a hit instead of taking the walk?

I don't think the reason he has so many walks (3rd in the NL) is because he's getting an inordinate number of bad pitches compared to other hitters. Walks are fine but I would gladly trade-off half his walks for a couple of homers, a single and a double even if his OBP goes down by a lot with trade-off.

.250/.400/.400 >>>>>>>>>> .280/.350/.450

 

Not debatable.

Run values:

=========

Walk = .30 run

Single = .46 run

Double = .75 run

Homer = 1.40 run

 

2 HRs + 1 Double + 1 Single = 4.0 runs

Half his walks (10.5) = 3.2 runs

 

We agree. This is not debatable.

 

The difference is, Lou's discussing the rate... the walk rate is reasonably sustained... your "exchange rate" is a lot more difficult to keep up over a whole season than not swinging at bad pitches.

Just a few clarifications. I was speaking of at least 2010, not 2009. I only mentioned Coghlan as an outfielder because at some point this off-season, I believe a Marlins executive (it's posted here somewhere) or a beat reporter who spoke with someone in the organization, or whatever it was, suggested it was a possibility because his bat speaks for him and his defense was considered somewhat problematic (and no that doesn't mean I'm calling him a crappy infielder or denigrating him, he's better with the bat than the glove).

 

And even opining if A happened than one of the consequences could be B. And if it happens in 2010 or 11 or 12 is for me irrelevant. As for walks vs hits it really is a matter of what the expectation is of the player determined by his place in the lineup. Perhaps an argument is being made Hermida should lead off or hit higher in order because he gets on base so frequently. It is a legitimate consideration. But if he's going to hit in a spot where players who are expected to drive in runs occupy, and he is merely getting on base with a walk, while that represents one more potential run to be scored by the next guy, it's not the same.

And even opining if A happened than one of the consequences could be B. And if it happens in 2010 or 11 or 12 is for me irrelevant. As for walks vs hits it really is a matter of what the expectation is of the player determined by his place in the lineup. Perhaps an argument is being made Hermida should lead off or hit higher in order because he gets on base so frequently. It is a legitimate consideration. But if he's going to hit in a spot where players who are expected to drive in runs occupy, and he is merely getting on base with a walk, while that represents one more potential run to be scored by the next guy, it's not the same.

 

It's not the same... but it's still very valuable because it's

 

a) not making an out and

 

b) adding to the pitch count in what's likely a stressful situation

 

additionally, if he keeps this up... and it becomes obvious it's his skill set, he'll play his way higher up the lineup anyways...

Is he supposed to chase bad pitches to try for a hit instead of taking the walk?

I don't think the reason he has so many walks (3rd in the NL) is because he's getting an inordinate number of bad pitches compared to other hitters. Walks are fine but I would gladly trade-off half his walks for a couple of homers, a single and a double even if his OBP goes down by a lot with trade-off.

.250/.400/.400 >>>>>>>>>> .280/.350/.450

 

Not debatable.

Run values:

=========

Walk = .30 run

Single = .46 run

Double = .75 run

Homer = 1.40 run

 

2 HRs + 1 Double + 1 Single = 4.0 runs

Half his walks (10.5) = 3.2 runs

 

We agree. This is not debatable.

So basically, in half of his walks (rounded to 11 AB) Hermida is going to hit .363/.363/1.000 for a 1.363 OPS. Sounds good to me! I will trade 10-11 walks for a 1.363 OPS in the other AB. That sounds great.

 

But back in reality, Hermida will not average that in the at bats he is not now walking in. Having him swing 'to drive in runs,' will do nothing more than drop his OBP, and increase his SLUG. OBP is worth about twice (it's slightly more, but twice is easy for math purposes) as much as SLUG in predicting runs scored, so a .400/.400 Hermida is basically worth a 1.200, and a .350/.450 Hermida is basically worth 1.150. You're going to need a .350/.500 Hermida to match his current .400/.400 line. That's a big slugging jump.

 

Hermida is producing more runs walking, than he is with swinging recklessly trying to drive in runs. It's that simple. You can't aimlessly predict/want him to have three extra base hits and a single in 11 AB. No one in baseball can expect to have that consistent level of performance.

 

What Hermida needs to do, is keep his walk rate, and get his average up to .270. He becomes outrageously above average. The walks aren't the negative here, it's what he's doing in the other AB that is frustrating. He has had 3-2 counts three times today, and has whiffed at all of them. One of those needs to be a hit. That's it.

And even opining if A happened than one of the consequences could be B. And if it happens in 2010 or 11 or 12 is for me irrelevant. As for walks vs hits it really is a matter of what the expectation is of the player determined by his place in the lineup. Perhaps an argument is being made Hermida should lead off or hit higher in order because he gets on base so frequently. It is a legitimate consideration. But if he's going to hit in a spot where players who are expected to drive in runs occupy, and he is merely getting on base with a walk, while that represents one more potential run to be scored by the next guy, it's not the same.

 

I agree that if you're hitting 5th or 6th it's a hell of a lot better to have a contact hitter there, given same production.

 

The issue is, if he forces things, he's going to be horrible like he was last year. Right now he's taking what is given to him. Given the choices between a .830 OPS powered by OBP or a .730 OPS powered by SLG, you have to take the OBP regardless of spot in the line up because that's so much more production.

 

If Hermida can have the same production (aka around the same OPS) while being aggressive, awesome. The problem is, can he do that while being aggressive. Plain and simple, he's not Vlad.

 

It's just unfortunate that we have 3 guys that probably will be putting up close to .400 OBPs. 2 of them will be hitting 2nd and 3rd. The other will be hitting 6th. That's not really the fault of the player.

And even opining if A happened than one of the consequences could be B. And if it happens in 2010 or 11 or 12 is for me irrelevant. As for walks vs hits it really is a matter of what the expectation is of the player determined by his place in the lineup. Perhaps an argument is being made Hermida should lead off or hit higher in order because he gets on base so frequently. It is a legitimate consideration. But if he's going to hit in a spot where players who are expected to drive in runs occupy, and he is merely getting on base with a walk, while that represents one more potential run to be scored by the next guy, it's not the same.

 

I agree that if you're hitting 5th or 6th it's a hell of a lot better to have a contact hitter there, given same production.

 

The issue is, if he forces things, he's going to be horrible like he was last year. Right now he's taking what is given to him. Given the choices between a .830 OPS powered by OBP or a .730 OPS powered by SLG, you have to take the OBP regardless of spot in the line up because that's so much more production.

 

If Hermida can have the same production (aka around the same OPS) while being aggressive, awesome. The problem is, can he do that while being aggressive. Plain and simple, he's not Vlad.

 

It's just unfortunate that we have 3 guys that probably will be putting up close to .400 OBPs. 2 of them will be hitting 2nd and 3rd. The other will be hitting 6th. That's not really the fault of the player.

 

I assume you're referring to Jeremy, Baker, and Hanley. Obviously Hanley stays in the middle of the line-up. I could see Hermida batting 3rd potentially because he has more SLG potential than Baker. If Jeremy can be that .280/.380/.470 guy, I think we could definitely put him 3rd and go EB/Baker/Hermida/Hanley/Cantu/Uggla. That's pretty darn solid, especially #2-6.

The problem is, Hanley isn't going to move from the 3 hole. Canut isn't (and probably shouldn't move from behind Hanley) going to move from the 4 spot. EB or Maybin is going to bat lead off. Our 1, 3, and 4 are basically set in stone if those players are all in the line up.

 

We can mash up all the lines up we want, but Fredi likely isn't going to change from that format.

If it gets to the point where Maybin needs to be sent down then I wouldn't mind Fredo at SS, Cody in CF and Hanley in either LF or RF with Hermida in the other.

If they are going to change Hanley to another position, that is an offseason issue.

A change in position is preferably an offseson issue but not necessarily as far as this FO is concerned. Think of Miguel in '03. And Hanley is a far better athlete than Miguel ever was.

 

Wasn't Miggy brought up because our 3B at the time (and then won the GG) was injured, then moved to the OF to keep his bat in the lineup after Mikey came back? Can't see how that is even remotely comparable.

 

But like I said before, I do agree with one point; if a move happens, it is an off season move.

He was brought up to play left field for Todd Hollandsworth in May, then when Lowell went down in Sept. he played third till lowell came back and then was put back in the outfield but in right.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...b&year=2003

 

This is Miguel's '03 game log so SHU is correct. He played LF from the get go. The position switch was done in the middle of the season.

 

Regarding OBP and SLG, the multiplier to use in ((OBP * x) + SLG) to get the best correlation with runs scored is 1.8 but this does not mean that OBP is 1.8 times more important than SLG.

SLG, the multiplier to use in ((OBP * x) + SLG) to get the best correlation with runs scored is 1.8 but this does not mean that OBP is 1.8 times more important than SLG.

2.094. So basically like I said, 2. And even using your 1.8 number, I'm still right.

 

Let Hermida be Hermida.

1. Move Hanley to left field (Alfonso Soriano is one of the highest paid players in baseball & made the IF to OF move, so can Hanley)

 

2. Trade Hermida for bullpen help

 

Amezaga at short + Hanley in left = much improved defense (vs. Hermida in left and Hanley at short)

 

 

NO

 

 

That was an excellently constructed retort...

 

 

Why would you take out a player who has OPS'd at an .870 clip before / provides average defense, as well out to insert Amezaga, who is not an everyday player?

 

If Hanley is switching positions (which, btw, wouldn't just happen during the middle of the season), he'd be moving to 3B...considering Bonifacio isn't an everyday player either. Not Hermida.

Teams make drastic changes to get better bats on the field.

Teams only move great bats when absolutely necessary.

Teams don't go changing franchise players to accommodate temporary current roster needs.

Teams make drastic changes to get better bats on the field.

Teams only move great bats when absolutely necessary.

Teams don't go changing franchise players to accommodate temporary current roster needs.

Unless that franchise player is Craig Biggio.

Teams make drastic changes to get better bats on the field.

Teams only move great bats when absolutely necessary.

Teams don't go changing franchise players to accommodate temporary current roster needs.

Unless that franchise player is Craig Biggio.

The 25-year old franchise player at catcher who they moved to second base to play 162 games a year injury-free or the 37-year old who they moved to accommodate a MVP candidate?

Teams make drastic changes to get better bats on the field.

Teams only move great bats when absolutely necessary.

Teams don't go changing franchise players to accommodate temporary current roster needs.

Unless that franchise player is Craig Biggio.

The 25-year old franchise player at catcher who they moved to second base to play 162 games a year injury-free or the 37-year old who they moved to accommodate a MVP candidate?

Yea, not the best example Rabb. I have to agree.

Teams make drastic changes to get better bats on the field.

Teams only move great bats when absolutely necessary.

Teams don't go changing franchise players to accommodate temporary current roster needs.

Unless that franchise player is Craig Biggio.

The 25-year old franchise player at catcher who they moved to second base to play 162 games a year injury-free or the 37-year old who they moved to accommodate a MVP candidate?

Heh. I was just giving an example, I meant the 37 year old they moved to accommodate a MVP candidate. Some franchise players are like Craig Biggio and move and some players are like Derek Jeter and don't.

 

I actually agree with you wholeheartedly on this point.

No, he was good for 1 week and has been okay for like another week, and he's suddenly good.

 

No, you're not seeing the total picture. He has shown improvement past the numbers. More patience at the plate, getting and looking more comfortable there, and showing he is starting to be able to adjust to the adjustments. Not to mention a strong desire to learn. Very important traits that don't show up on the stat sheets. But through hard work they become apparent.

 

You can't always look at the numbers for a rookie. And basically I consider this a guy a rookie. One that is willing to be molded. I realize the rookie label isn't an actual term to be used with him. But to think otherwise would be to say the Nats FO and coaching staff from last year is the equal of ours. I don't see that. Their GM from last year got fired. They have alot of talent on that team (last year and this year) that is and has been underperforming, which means their coaching staff isn't and hasn't been doing their job(s). I said after our first 6 games with them this season that they are a much better team than they were showing. I said it last year, too. I stick by that remark.

 

He's not suddenly good. He has the talent and the correct work ethic. He needs the coaching to become better at the plate. His glove is already surprising most fans. He'll get better. My guess is he's on the 25 man roster next season through dedication to the game and hard work, but maybe at a different position.

As Tommy pointed out yesterday the complaint regarding Hermida is not that he isn't getting on base, but really how he is and the lack of production he brings to the team. Walks are great but in his mind JH should be driving in more runs, that's what he's paid to do. I think to some extent it's a valid complaint and its impossible to ignore the batting slump he's going through, having gone hitless five of his last seven games, his average falling nearly 50 points in the interim. But everyone goes through dry spells so I guess all we can do is hope he starts showing some of that aggressiveness at the plate we saw earlier in the season.

 

Is it really a slump if you are walking like it's going out of style? Is he supposed to chase bad pitches to try for a hit instead of taking the walk? So what if his average sits around .250 if his OBP is .400. Gotta remember, maybe he's been hitless the past few games, but

 

It's been shown several times that OBP outweighs things like BA and SLG by a lot in terms of production, it's not about individual production, it's about team production, Hermida leading the league in walks is providing outstanding production for the team, which is ultimately more valuable than putting up a .270 BA. I'd be lying if I didn't say I wanted more players to slump like Hermida if that's the case.

 

So far this year he's put up a .240/.421/.425 line... even if he finishes with that, that's very much awesome... if he likely starts alternating the walks for hits and finishes closer to .270/.380/.460 or something like that, it's still awesome.

 

All this being said, he's still in the top 3 most productive hitters on the team in terms of conventionals (HR/RBI) and in the rates (OBP/OPS)... Hermida's been fine this season... And to Waxheaven there... NOBODY... ZERO PEOPLE expect Hermida to be a Manny Ramirez... even the most ardent of Hermida supporters expect Brian Giles-lite (Basically, Giles's 2004 in SD)... .270/.370/.450-ish lines

 

Although full of holes, not a bad post PWG. But let's just concentrate on the bolded part. Production means runs scored. I think if you were to ask anyone that is proud of their bat, they would say their goal is to account for 200 runs a season. Runs scored + RBIs. Jeremy is going to have to come very close to that number to be on this team next season. Saying he will do this or he should do that is irrelevant. The bottom line is going to be relevant.

 

And like I have said many times. I'm a fence sitter on Jeremy. Neither pro or con. Simply willing to wait and see what he accomplishes this season.

As Tommy pointed out yesterday the complaint regarding Hermida is not that he isn't getting on base, but really how he is and the lack of production he brings to the team. Walks are great but in his mind JH should be driving in more runs, that's what he's paid to do. I think to some extent it's a valid complaint and its impossible to ignore the batting slump he's going through, having gone hitless five of his last seven games, his average falling nearly 50 points in the interim. But everyone goes through dry spells so I guess all we can do is hope he starts showing some of that aggressiveness at the plate we saw earlier in the season.

 

Is it really a slump if you are walking like it's going out of style? Is he supposed to chase bad pitches to try for a hit instead of taking the walk? So what if his average sits around .250 if his OBP is .400. Gotta remember, maybe he's been hitless the past few games, but

 

It's been shown several times that OBP outweighs things like BA and SLG by a lot in terms of production, it's not about individual production, it's about team production, Hermida leading the league in walks is providing outstanding production for the team, which is ultimately more valuable than putting up a .270 BA. I'd be lying if I didn't say I wanted more players to slump like Hermida if that's the case.

 

So far this year he's put up a .240/.421/.425 line... even if he finishes with that, that's very much awesome... if he likely starts alternating the walks for hits and finishes closer to .270/.380/.460 or something like that, it's still awesome.

 

All this being said, he's still in the top 3 most productive hitters on the team in terms of conventionals (HR/RBI) and in the rates (OBP/OPS)... Hermida's been fine this season... And to Waxheaven there... NOBODY... ZERO PEOPLE expect Hermida to be a Manny Ramirez... even the most ardent of Hermida supporters expect Brian Giles-lite (Basically, Giles's 2004 in SD)... .270/.370/.450-ish lines

 

Although full of holes, not a bad post PWG. But let's just concentrate on the bolded part. Production means runs scored. I think if you were to ask anyone that is proud of their bat, they would say their goal is to account for 200 runs a season. Runs scored + RBIs. Jeremy is going to have to come very close to that number to be on this team next season. Saying he will do this or he should do that is irrelevant. The bottom line is going to be relevant.

 

And like I have said many times. I'm a fence sitter on Jeremy. Neither pro or con. Simply willing to wait and see what he accomplishes this season.

Not just going on whether or not this is right, that's a bit excessive sir. Not a single person on our 2008 squad, 3rd best record in team history, reached that number. Not either NL All-Stars Hanley Ramirez or Dan Uggla, not MB favorite Jorge Cantu, no one.

 

For you, he'd have to have a year up there with NL MVP Albert Pujols, who only had 216 Runs+RBI.

Ok, I said I wasn't going to go on about how wrong that was, but sorry.

 

Rating a player based only on situations that will always at some point be completely out of his control is ridiculous.

As Tommy pointed out yesterday the complaint regarding Hermida is not that he isn't getting on base, but really how he is and the lack of production he brings to the team. Walks are great but in his mind JH should be driving in more runs, that's what he's paid to do. I think to some extent it's a valid complaint and its impossible to ignore the batting slump he's going through, having gone hitless five of his last seven games, his average falling nearly 50 points in the interim. But everyone goes through dry spells so I guess all we can do is hope he starts showing some of that aggressiveness at the plate we saw earlier in the season.

 

Is it really a slump if you are walking like it's going out of style? Is he supposed to chase bad pitches to try for a hit instead of taking the walk? So what if his average sits around .250 if his OBP is .400. Gotta remember, maybe he's been hitless the past few games, but

 

It's been shown several times that OBP outweighs things like BA and SLG by a lot in terms of production, it's not about individual production, it's about team production, Hermida leading the league in walks is providing outstanding production for the team, which is ultimately more valuable than putting up a .270 BA. I'd be lying if I didn't say I wanted more players to slump like Hermida if that's the case.

 

So far this year he's put up a .240/.421/.425 line... even if he finishes with that, that's very much awesome... if he likely starts alternating the walks for hits and finishes closer to .270/.380/.460 or something like that, it's still awesome.

 

All this being said, he's still in the top 3 most productive hitters on the team in terms of conventionals (HR/RBI) and in the rates (OBP/OPS)... Hermida's been fine this season... And to Waxheaven there... NOBODY... ZERO PEOPLE expect Hermida to be a Manny Ramirez... even the most ardent of Hermida supporters expect Brian Giles-lite (Basically, Giles's 2004 in SD)... .270/.370/.450-ish lines

 

Although full of holes, not a bad post PWG. But let's just concentrate on the bolded part. Production means runs scored. I think if you were to ask anyone that is proud of their bat, they would say their goal is to account for 200 runs a season. Runs scored + RBIs. Jeremy is going to have to come very close to that number to be on this team next season. Saying he will do this or he should do that is irrelevant. The bottom line is going to be relevant.

 

And like I have said many times. I'm a fence sitter on Jeremy. Neither pro or con. Simply willing to wait and see what he accomplishes this season.

 

There are no "holes" in any of the above post... the only "hole" in the above quoted block of text is the absolutely unfair level of expectation you have for Hermida to remain on this team, as Rabb so kindly explained.

 

And... if production = runs scored (Im willing to concede that in this context) Hermida's near .400 OBP is very near the pennultimate of providing the absolute best chance for run production... not counting guys like Pujols who are just on another level.

 

And one last thing... I think if you ask ANY major league hitter what they would say their goal is... it would be to give their team the best chance at winning, not some arbitrary figure.

For you, he'd have to have a year up there with NL MVP Albert Pujols, who only had 216 Runs+RBI.

 

That makes it sound like a combined two hundred runs/RBIs is almost a mythical number which it isn't. I stopped counting in the high teens (phone call, lost count) the number of players. Some interesting names on the list.

 

Going through it the Mets (boo) have so many players on that list you almost can't imagine them not winning the division by twenty games...shows to go ya...but it is an interesting list nonetheless.

 

Here's the link, it's on RBI now, click on "runs" and you can see the guys who did from the other side, more runs than RBIs.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/player...;sortByStat=RBI

 

As for it being a necessary benchmark for Hermida to achieve, I think it's pretty lofty and if I say unattainable someone will take it as bashing him which isn't my intention.

 

I think Rabb is more right than Bob on this one, he doesn't need to get there (or "very close") to prove his worth to the club but if you take Bob's point more broadly Hermida this season is going to be valued (for 2010) by his bat with greater scrutiny than past years, if for no other reason than for arbitration decision-making purposes.

All Hermida has to do to stay on the team next year is out perform Ross. The Marlins are not going to give two outfield positions to Carroll, Raynor, Cousins, Petersen, and Jai (with Morrison an outside shot to make the team as a LF, but still doubtful as the injury will set back his timetable to June 2010 at the earliest). No one on the free agent list below makes sense for us on a 1 year deal, or would accept a 1 year deal, or is in our price range, compared to what Hermida or Ross will get in arbitration and what they can bring to the park. The Marlins aren't going to trade for a young OF/any OF with immense minor league depth of legitimate prospects - Stanton looming, and the aforementioned Cousins/Petersen/Raynor/maybe Morrison collection in AA/AAA. (And Coghlan is not an outfielder and does not count here).

 

Maybe Hermida does not play himself into a long term contract and become "Markakis" like we all hoped, but it's foolish to think he needs to score runs or get rbis to stay with the club. His current OPS is .807, which is well up from last years .729, and his OBP is .404. That is a solid ball player despite the obvious flaws. We could do a lot worse. We obviously have small sample sizes with Hermida and Ross so far, but let's see how they do this year. One of them is still going to be on the team, just as how one of Cantu and Uggla will still be on the team as the Marlins will not get rid of both of them and deploy Gaby, Coghlan, and Bonifacio as the infield starters. We have the money to keep one of the big ticket arbitration cases (Uggla in general, Cantu 6th year arbitration), and one of the moderate arbitration cases (5th year Hermida and Ross). We are going to preserve Hanley, Cantu/Uggla, Hermida/Ross, Baker, Maybin, and Bonifacio as starters, give one OF slot to rookie platoon, and give the other starting spot to Gaby/Coghlan playing at various positions. That's a good team, and it's a great team if Hermida and Maybin turn into the monsters all the scouts think they can be, and Gaby/Coghlan/rookie outfielders come up and hit a little bit.

 

2010 FA List

 

Bobby Abreu LAA

Garret Anderson ATL

Rick Ankiel STL

Rocco Baldelli BOS

Jason Bay BOS

Marlon Byrd TEX

Mike Cameron MIL

Frank Catalanotto TEX

Endy Chavez SEA

Coco Crisp * KC

Carl Crawford * TB

Johnny Damon NYY

David Dellucci CLE

Jermaine Dye * CWS

Darin Erstad HOU

Cliff Floyd SD

Ryan Freel BAL

Brian Giles SD

Ken Griffey Jr. SEA

Vladimir Guerrero LAA

Matt Holliday OAK

Geoff Jenkins * PHI

Reed Johnson CHC

Andruw Jones TEX

Austin Kearns * WAS

Hideki Matusi NYY

Jason Michaels CLE

Xavier Nady NYY

Magglio Ordonez * DET

Manny Ramirez * LAD

Dave Roberts SF

Gary Sheffield DET

Randy Winn SF

Runs scored & RBI's.

 

2 stats that should never be used to evaluate an individual player.

2 stats that should never be used to evaluate an individual player.

 

I agree, but don't try to tell that to Uggla. When asked in early April (pre-game by Minervini or Forte, IIRC) what his goals were for this season, he said (and I paraphrase) "Score 100 runs and drive in 100 runs."

 

See ball, hit ball.