As a relative newcomer to baseball (July '07) , the Marlins (Aug '07) and this forum (Apr '08) I'm just wondering if any other first-year player has come under such scrutiny and discussion as Emilio Bonifacio?

 

 

Hermida was pretty damn close

 

hopefully this doesn't last as long lol

Well, I'd argue that Hermida has been more, since he's been getting this treatment since 06 and Boni's only been getting it for a few months.

 

This.

 

The only praise I ever remember him getting after the stint in 05 was in the 2nd half of 07.

As a relative newcomer to baseball (July '07) , the Marlins (Aug '07) and this forum (Apr '08) I'm just wondering if any other first-year player has come under such scrutiny and discussion as Emilio Bonifacio?

 

 

Hermida was pretty damn close

 

hopefully this doesn't last as long lol

Well, I'd argue that Hermida has been more, since he's been getting this treatment since 06 and Boni's only been getting it for a few months.

 

This.

 

The only praise I ever remember him getting after the stint in 05 was in the 2nd half of 07.

Please, even after 07 he was still getting crap.

Please, even after 07 he was still getting crap.

 

 

Not after, during.

 

He's been getting sh*t for a while though, being called a "bust" when he was 22 years old. It's pretty annoying

Please, even after 07 he was still getting crap.

 

 

Not after, during.

 

He's been getting sh*t for a while though, being called a "bust" when he was 22 years old. It's pretty annoying

I mean in the off season. Plus, he was getting crap during too.

Please, even after 07 he was still getting crap.

 

 

Not after, during.

 

He's been getting sh*t for a while though, being called a "bust" when he was 22 years old. It's pretty annoying

I mean in the off season. Plus, he was getting crap during too.

 

Yeah well I really hope one season he becomes an All Star and all the haters will be saying how they always loved him and watch them make excuses. It'll be even better if we trade him and he becomes great and the guy we get in return is a Jorge Julio or Matt Herges.

If he stays consistent, he'll be OK. If he doesn't, he'll go back to sucking.

 

 

Joe Morgan quote of the day.

I have to think there is something fundamentally wrong with James' baserunning analysis if he comes out as above average on the bases. He has great speed, but his baserunning skills are below average as far as I'm concerned.

 

Does James' baserunning/stolen base measures take into account the number of times a player gets picked off?

 

 

Takes into account everything. I think you're underestimating his ability simply because of his (rather dumb) gaffes. I mean, just look at the original post of the thread. If he gets picked off, but also takes an extra 5 bases that a player doesn't normally take, that's +4 bases. But the pick off sticks out in your head because it's obvious.

 

Is the calculation just that simple? I mean, getting picked off (-1) is much worse than not taking an extra base. If a guy gets 4 singles, takes 2 extra bases (on a follow-up basde hit or something) and gets picked off twice, can that guy possibly be given as much "credit" as a guy who hits 4 singles and just hangs out at first, without any extra bases or pickoffs? It does seem as if it'd be better to just have a man on first 4x.

I have to think there is something fundamentally wrong with James' baserunning analysis if he comes out as above average on the bases. He has great speed, but his baserunning skills are below average as far as I'm concerned.

 

Does James' baserunning/stolen base measures take into account the number of times a player gets picked off?

 

 

Takes into account everything. I think you're underestimating his ability simply because of his (rather dumb) gaffes. I mean, just look at the original post of the thread. If he gets picked off, but also takes an extra 5 bases that a player doesn't normally take, that's +4 bases. But the pick off sticks out in your head because it's obvious.

 

Is the calculation just that simple? I mean, getting picked off (-1) is much worse than not taking an extra base. If a guy gets 4 singles, takes 2 extra bases (on a follow-up basde hit or something) and gets picked off twice, can that guy possibly be given as much "credit" as a guy who hits 4 singles and just hangs out at first, without any extra bases or pickoffs? It does seem as if it'd be better to just have a man on first 4x.

I guess "value" wise getting picked-off is like a CS and taking the extra base is like a SB. The value of CS is -0.32 and of a SB +0.18.

Emilio's been killing it recently. .814 OPS for July, .846 for the past week.

 

 

If he could only be consistent with that...I bet even Abercrombie goes on a hot streak every once in a while.

 

Problem with this post is that he has shown steady improvement. It's called a learning process.

He's also tied for most errors by NL thirdbaseman

 

 

 

this is the first time he's played 3rd. I'm sure it's a very hard position to learn on the fly. I agree with everyone that he is not our best option at 3rd base but I think with a little bit of tinkering mixed with some hard work and dedication on Boni's part he can be a great player. He doesn't even have a full season worth of work yet, it's not like he's been around since 2006 and still can't put it together.

 

 

And consistently ignored. The guys that are near him with errors? Why isn't that mentioned? Chipper, Wright, and Zimmerman just in our division. Guys that have far more than 73 games at that position in their careers.

 

I doubt Boni is at 3B next year. Most likely at 2B. He will continue to learn at the plate this year. His progress, although slow at times, has been steady. Lately even impressive. Maybe, just maybe, Gaby gets the call up in Sept to see if he can handle MLB pitching yet and the position. But anyone that wants him up here now is just begging for more errors and a huge learning curve at the plate for a second half push. Not the best of ideas.

Errors are not the best stat to judge a player and his defensive. It is +/-. Bonifacio is currently at -1, which is slightly below average. The players you compared to Bonifacio, especially Zimmerman, are far superior defensively.

And, barring any trade, Chris Coghlan should be our starting second baseman next year, not Bonifacio.

As a relative newcomer to baseball (July '07) , the Marlins (Aug '07) and this forum (Apr '08) I'm just wondering if any other first-year player has come under such scrutiny and discussion as Emilio Bonifacio?

 

 

Hermida was pretty damn close

 

hopefully this doesn't last as long lol

 

Go back further and probably more comparable type player. Castillo. A switch hitter without much power that had alot of speed. Some even wanted him to stop with the switch hitting. He did fine (not great, but showed promise) in '96, came out in '97 trying to add some power to his offense and ended up being sent down. Enter Counsell in a trade with the Rockies. Craig kept the job in '98 until injury (hit in the face with a pitch, broken jaw) brought Castillo back up. Castillo won the job back in ST of '99 and took off from there. But when he won that job away from Counsell he was despised by many.

Bonifacio really isnt comparable to Castillo at all.

I'm warming up to boner over the last few weeks, but not as a thirdbaseman. If he can give me a .730 ops, improve his base stealing and play great defense at 2nd, I'd be content, but he simply cannot be a long term answer at third.

 

If they are what I think they are with the glove at 2nd, boner and coghlan are probably about a wash overall. My problem with boner is that he's been forced into a role he's not suited for right now, an since the beginning of the season. He wasn't an everyday player up until about 3 weeks ago, but he was there playing everyday at the major league level and generally at the top of the order. If they had hit him 8 from game one, I never wouldve said as much as I did. He was a detrimentto this team in the leadoff spot and really in the lineup up until about 3 and a half weeks ago.

Bonifacio has a zero chance of becoming a .730 OPS type.

Bonifacio has a zero chance of becoming a .730 OPS type.

 

The fact that he's from .578 to .628 in less than a month disagrees.

Bonifacio has a zero chance of becoming a .730 OPS type.

 

The fact that he's from .578 to .628 in less than a month disagrees.

Just because a guy does something over a month doesn't mean he can do it over a full season or over his entire career.

Bonifacio has a zero chance of becoming a .730 OPS type.

 

The fact that he's from .578 to .628 in less than a month disagrees.

Just because a guy does something over a month doesn't mean he can do it over a full season or over his entire career.

Oh, I don't think he's a career .730 guy. But in a platoon situation with Coghlan as bobbob referred to, I believe he could easily do it hitting from his strong side.

 

Ironically, if you look at his OPS against lefties right now, it's exactly .730.

Bonifacio has a zero chance of becoming a .730 OPS type.

 

 

It seems that it would be quite difficult. I can't see him with an ISO of better than .085. So if we project .285/.340/.370, that's just a .710 OPS. I'm not sure his ceiling is much higher than that. With that said, that line with plus defense and a decent OBP, plus his speed (obviously) could make him into a useful starting 2B, somewhat moreso if he can become a skilled baserunner. But yeah, .730 would be tough. Unless he can go like .305/.340/.390, but I just feel like if his BA is that high, he's probably doing a ton of (albeit efficient) slapping, and not much gapping.

If he hits .295, he should walk around 5.5-6 percent of the time (major league 5.2, minor league 6.6), which puts him at a .345-.350 obp. His iso slugging right now is .066, which isn't very good but puts him at .295/.345/.370 ish line. So yeah, not .730, your right. And yeah, .295 might be high, so you're probably right. But a .690 ops is ok with very good defense, so my point still remains, kind of.

Bonifacio has a zero chance of becoming a .730 OPS type.

 

 

It seems that it would be quite difficult. I can't see him with an ISO of better than .085. So if we project .285/.340/.370, that's just a .710 OPS. I'm not sure his ceiling is much higher than that. With that said, that line with plus defense and a decent OBP, plus his speed (obviously) could make him into a useful starting 2B, somewhat moreso if he can become a skilled baserunner. But yeah, .730 would be tough. Unless he can go like .305/.340/.390, but I just feel like if his BA is that high, he's probably doing a ton of (albeit efficient) slapping, and not much gapping.

 

this.

 

His last mont would be a what I was referring to, albeit with about a 15 point swap between obp and slugging.

 

Not a great hitter, or even a very good one, but with all the other stuff he could potentially bring, that's a decent enough 2nd baseman, though I still think he'd be woefully unsuited to bat leadoff of coghlan or maybin is with us.

Bonifacio has a zero chance of becoming a .730 OPS type.

 

 

I think that can be his top end against RHP

 

everybody makes the castillo comparision but he's really Amezaga. The question is moreso can he get his K rate down to what Amezaga's is. But he has a lot more BABIP potential than Alfredo does because of his speed. Alfredo's career babip is under .300. Emilio should be atleast .330 and can probably top end at .350 but that's really optimsitic.

 

More likely he'll be around the .700 mark against RHP. than LHP would bring him down to the mid-to-mid upper 600s because you know he'll still play against them. But if he improves his BB/K, which isn't a huge stretch because improved BB/Ks happen all the time as players age, he could get up to .730

What's weird is I think people are getting a skewed image of his and coghlan's abilities.

 

Boner should be much, much better against rhp than lhp, that should even out thanks to the 135 point difference in babip. And coghlan should be much closer in both, as he hit them relatively the same in the minors, though he doesn't have the same babip issues. He's just struggling right now. He's a better bet to out ops boner, but with defense they could provide somewhat similar value.

I don't see him doing .730 because he Ks too much, doesn't walk enough and doesn't hit the ball hard enough when he hits it. JP never walks but he doesn't K and hits a lot of line drives so he has being a .730 type in his career. I see Boni in the mid to high .600s at best.

I don't see him doing .730 because he Ks too much, doesn't walk enough and doesn't hit the ball hard enough when he hits it. JP never walks but he doesn't K and hits a lot of line drives so he has being a .730 type in his career. I see Boni in the mid to high .600s at best.

 

 

I think it's possible he gets down to the 16% range against RHP.

 

He has a career MILB K% against RHP at 16%, LHP at 23%.

 

Since June 9th he's struck out 17.4%. I know what he does as a whole shows the better picture but for a guy starting in the league improvement is improvement.

 

I mean, 16% is still far from juan pierre level. But, I mean, you look at 600 ABs with a .330 BABIP. The difference between 20% and 16% is a .263 AVG and a .276 AVG.