November 17, 200322 yr Jeff has been in the AL for a few years now and as we all saw he slumped at first then heated up when it mattered most. looking at his career numbers i would like to get all of our resident "EXPERTS" predictions/opinions on how 9er's season will end up. SI.com has career stats looking at the #s it is very reasonable to expect .275-.290 15-25hr and RBI can range from 80-100 depending on where he hits in the order. the real question is whether those #s are worthy of being a 1b? :whistle
November 17, 200322 yr Until we have a better idea of the 2004 lineup it's a bit premature in my mind to be predicting an individual player's performance. Who know's where he'll be hitting, who's ahead and behind him, etc.
November 17, 200322 yr 1997 proved that Jeff Conine is an excellent 1B. If all talks about DLee being traded away are true, then Jeff will fill in nicely into the first base position.
November 17, 200322 yr If he bats 3rd: 290-.300, with 95-105 RBI and around 20 HR.---Why: He'll get better pitches to hit, raising the average near .300 in his favorite stadium, big gap PPS. His RBI totals will be around 100, hitting behind Pierre/Castillo (not to mention he has been known to be a clutch hitter at times :lol :thumbup ). If he bats 5/6: .285-.290, with 85-100 RBI and around 15-20 HR's--- Why: Won't see as many pitches to hit; average drops slightly. Not as many, but definately enough RBI oppritunities; won't drive in a ton, but more than enough. If he bats 7/8: .290-.300, with 75-90 RBI and around 20 HR's--- Why: Will see a lot of breaking balls near the bottom of the order; will knock a lot more base hits/doubles into RC/RF. Will not see as many runners on base, resulting in less RBI chances.
November 17, 200322 yr Jeff has been in the AL for a few years now and as we all saw he slumped at first then heated up when it mattered most. looking at his career numbers i would like to get all of our resident "EXPERTS" predictions/opinions on how 9er's season will end up. SI.com has career stats looking at the #s it is very reasonable to expect .275-.290 15-25hr and RBI can range from 80-100 depending on where he hits in the order. the real question is whether those #s are worthy of being a 1b? :whistle Well since you basically render RBI a useless stat when rating hitters (when you talk about where he hits in the order) because it is a team dependent statistic I will give projections for his other stats. Since he moved from the hitter friendly confines of Camden to the pitchers paradise of PPS his numbers can expect to take a slighht downturn coupled with him aging another year make that a more than slight downturn. I must admit he's aging admirably and a decline in performance hasn't really happened yet. If you average out all his stats he comes out to about middle of the pack among ML first basemen so I expect more of the same in 2004...so if you consider "solid" average then I'm in agreement. BA: .278 BB: 56 SO: 72 HR: 21 OPS: .780
November 17, 200322 yr His power numbers went up slightly eventhough his average suffered some. One thing is for sure, Conine is a grade A professional hitter - he wont put up the sexiest numbers, but he will get the job done. He doesnt strike out too much and puts the ball in play. His only seasons batting below .280 are 97, 98. His OPS, OBS and SLUG where relatively the same between Baltimore and Miami. I think he is good for .280, 20, 85RBI.
November 17, 200322 yr Conine > Lee at the plate but defensively Lee >>>>>> Conine.All sign point to Lee being traded and why not since his value has gone up.
November 17, 200322 yr looking at conine's stats, i anticipate about a .275 / 15 HR for next season. he plays at the pro now, so it should be a bit tougher. he's also getting very close to 40, so i'm holding my breath hoping that we don't see his dropoff for the remainder of this contract. also, it still might take him a few more weeks of playing time before he's totally up-to-speed with the national league, the strike zone, the umpires, etc. to his advantage, however, is the fact that most NL pitchers aren't familiar with him. overall, however, i think next season should be down from his career average. regarding the 1b situation, it looks like 9er is a very average fielder at 1b, which is neither bad nor good. unfortunately, he's not as athletic as other younger 1b's with the same fieldpct as him, so i don't have much faith in him being able to create a whole lot of plays. i'd be more comfortable with him in LF and us getting a younger 1B, but it doesn't matter much since he has proven that he is a solid 1st baseman. overall the biggest advantage of having conine is his versatility. because he's solid at two positions, Admin beinfest has so many more options with the offseason moves. essentially, it allows beinfest to make the best deal possible knowing that 9er can fill in at whichever position he chooses. realistically, i see them putting conine at 1B for next season. filling a hole at RF is a million times easier than filling a hole at 1B. Conine > Lee at the plate but defensively Lee >>>>>> Conine.All sign point to Lee being traded and why not since his value has gone up. personally, i think Lee > Conine at the plate
November 17, 200322 yr You have to look beyond those basic stats when comparing a player like Conine to one like Lee. The most important aspect of this situation to me, is that you're going to get consistent quality ABs from Conine, instead of the inconsistency of Lee. Conine does things like move up runners, and you can hit and run with him, etc. He has a better command of the strike zone. And he hits in the clutch. Something that was missing from Lee and was frustrating to watch. Many of his HRs were late in games that were already decided. Conine's stats will be steady and adequate, but he's bringing a lot more to the table.
November 17, 200322 yr You have to look beyond those basic stats when comparing a player like Conine to one like Lee. The most important aspect of this situation to me, is that you're going to get consistent quality ABs from Conine, instead of the inconsistency of Lee. we know which player will be crushing a pitch "right down broadway" and which one will just "foul it off"
November 17, 200322 yr You have to look beyond those basic stats when comparing a player like Conine to one like Lee. The most important aspect of this situation to me, is that you're going to get consistent quality ABs from Conine, instead of the inconsistency of Lee. we know which player will be fouling off a pitch "right down broadway" and which one will just "foul it off" Lee rarely misses amistake pitch. C'mon now.
November 17, 200322 yr im here in an unbiased land of the Midwest.... none of my friends up here like the Marlins, during the playoffs, all they could ask was.... "does this guy ever hit the ball in play?" that was regarding DLee the guy was fouling off so many good pitches it wasnt funny
November 17, 200322 yr the guy was fouling off so many good pitches it wasnt funny But he hit them when they really counted and that is all that matters.
November 17, 200322 yr he got 2 big hits in all of the playoffs.... sorry, yes it was good enough, but it still isnt "good"
November 17, 200322 yr he got 2 big hits in all of the playoffs.... sorry, yes it was good enough, but it still isnt "good" plus, for those 2 hits, on other situations he left like 100 men on base when the game was on the line :banghead . DLEE gets my vote for at the plate chokemaster in 2003 for the Florida Marlins. With AlexG being a close second. However, I would still love to see D LEE on a Marlin's uni during 2004.
November 17, 200322 yr It makes me sad to know how much some of you rely on your subjective observations rather than taking a look at the objective data when you make your conclusions. I don't believe in clutch hitting as a skill, but let's take a look at the numbers and see if Lee really is as bad as most of you think: Lee ranked 4th on our team in OPS (.900) with RISP behind (Pudge, Cabs, and Lowell in that order) while Conine in only 26 ABs had an OPS of .611 and in Baltimore he had 149ABs with RISP with a .789 OPS. But I'm sure most of you will brush this off and still go with Conine as the superior offensive player...whatever. The times you've seen Derrek fail with runners on supercedes the actual data which showed him to have a higher OPS with runners in scoring position than without. Ignorance is bliss.\ And for those who think OPS is taboo...again its the raw total measure of a players offensive output (walks, weighted hits) but doesn't include things like SB which Derrek obviously wins at.
November 17, 200322 yr Id rather have Conine batting with the game on the line and almost every other person would agree
November 17, 200322 yr Id rather have Conine batting with the game on the line and almost every other person would agree I'd rather have Lee because he has a higher chance overall (based on career averages) of getting either a hit with power or a walk.
November 17, 200322 yr Id rather have Conine batting with the game on the line and almost every other person would agree I agree.
November 17, 200322 yr Id rather have Conine batting with the game on the line and almost every other person would agree I agree. Add me to that list
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