June 25, 201115 yr I agree that the odds of Hanley being traded for awhile are low, just because of the stadium situation. If that wasn't an issue I'd certainly shop him, if we can get some decent offers. i don't agree with the stadium situation part of this comment. If you get away from what the media tells us what we think and actually talk to the fan base that attend the games you would see a different story. People are looking at his post contract numbers, his attitude, his "injuries", his attitude, his defensive prowess, his attitude, and have a totally different thinking of whether or not he should be traded. Get away from the online fan base and talk to the people that actually go to the games. They are the ones the FO eventually has to please. Not the ones that, for the past almost 2 decades, keep saying "I would go to the games, but (fill in the blank)...." (I live on the other side of the ocean)
June 25, 201115 yr I agree that the odds of Hanley being traded for awhile are low, just because of the stadium situation. If that wasn't an issue I'd certainly shop him, if we can get some decent offers. i don't agree with the stadium situation part of this comment. If you get away from what the media tells us what we think and actually talk to the fan base that attend the games you would see a different story. People are looking at his post contract numbers, his attitude, his "injuries", his attitude, his defensive prowess, his attitude, and have a totally different thinking of whether or not he should be traded. Get away from the online fan base and talk to the people that actually go to the games. They are the ones the FO eventually has to please. Not the ones that, for the past almost 2 decades, keep saying "I would go to the games, but (fill in the blank)...." The online fanbase is bigger than the attend the stadium fanbase. Plus, everybody knows that you're probably only talking to yourself at the stadium and pretending you're other people.
June 25, 201115 yr That's not really what I meant. I meant that it's easier for an organization to find a 4 WAR 1B/corner outfielder than to magically find a ~4 WAR SS. Hanley would be really difficult to replace (assuming he goes back to being Hanley). Look at SS's last year; there are only about a handful of consistently productive SS's in the big leagues. And Hanley has, arguably, been the best one in the big leagues, aside from a couple of months this year. Also, Hanley's defensive #'s would probably look a lot better if he were playing LF (making his WAR look better), instead of SS; SS is a more demanding position. There are more 1B than SS with very high WARs but that doesn't mean they're easier to get. Using your example, if in 2010 Hanley had played LF and played it at a defensive +/- of 0 his WAR would have being 3.3. +3.7 WAR at SS -0.7 Bonus in the 3.7 for playing SS +0.8 Penalty in the 3.7 for playing poor SS -0.5 Penalty for playing LF ==== +3.3 Hanley in LF playing at a +/- of 0 Except you're assuming his +/- would be 0. I think it could potentially be a very nice +. LF seems like a difficult position to play at first, but after awhile just about anyone can play it. Considering Hanley's athleticism, I think he'd be well above average at the position if they just so happened to move him there.
June 25, 201115 yr People are looking at his post contract numbers You mean like when he hit 24 home runs and hit .296 in the 110 games following the extension in 08? Or when he won the batting title and drove in 100 runs in 2009? By "his post contract numbers" you mean "this year and only this year," right?
June 25, 201115 yr I agree that the odds of Hanley being traded for awhile are low, just because of the stadium situation. If that wasn't an issue I'd certainly shop him, if we can get some decent offers. i don't agree with the stadium situation part of this comment. If you get away from what the media tells us what we think and actually talk to the fan base that attend the games you would see a different story. People are looking at his post contract numbers, his attitude, his "injuries", his attitude, his defensive prowess, his attitude, and have a totally different thinking of whether or not he should be traded. Get away from the online fan base and talk to the people that actually go to the games. They are the ones the FO eventually has to please. Not the ones that, for the past almost 2 decades, keep saying "I would go to the games, but (fill in the blank)...." Lolwat? The fans on here are the most devoted to this team. And, um, having no money in your bank account (see: students, college or high school) is a damn good excuse. And many of us live in Orlando, Tampa, Gainesville, Tallahassee or elsewhere.
June 25, 201115 yr I agree that the odds of Hanley being traded for awhile are low, just because of the stadium situation. If that wasn't an issue I'd certainly shop him, if we can get some decent offers. i don't agree with the stadium situation part of this comment. If you get away from what the media tells us what we think and actually talk to the fan base that attend the games you would see a different story. People are looking at his post contract numbers, his attitude, his "injuries", his attitude, his defensive prowess, his attitude, and have a totally different thinking of whether or not he should be traded. Get away from the online fan base and talk to the people that actually go to the games. They are the ones the FO eventually has to please. Not the ones that, for the past almost 2 decades, keep saying "I would go to the games, but (fill in the blank)...." Lolwat? The fans on here are the most devoted to this team. And, um, having no money in your bank account (see: students, college or high school) is a damn good excuse. And many of us live in Orlando, Tampa, Gainesville, Tallahassee or elsewhere. No excuses, lawyer boy.
June 26, 201115 yr So, just a question, slightly off-topic. How does one calculate WAR? Unfortunately there's not one set formula but basically it attempts to measure by how much a player is better than a replacement level player. A replacement level player is a AAA / AAAA player. It takes into account hitting, baserunning and defense. It also includes a positional adjustment factor in which positions that are tough to play such as C, SS and CF get bonuses and positions that are easy to play like LF, RF and 1B get penalties. The positional adjustment is needed because if for example two players are exactly alike in hitting, defense and baserunning but one is a 1B and the other a Catcher obviously the Catcher is more valuable.
June 26, 201115 yr So, just a question, slightly off-topic. How does one calculate WAR? Take the square root of the surface area of your cornea, multiply that by the number of games in your season ticket package, and subtract the number of times the player has given you the cold shoulder at Fanfest. Then divide all of that by 7.
June 26, 201115 yr So, just a question, slightly off-topic. How does one calculate WAR? Take the square root of the surface area of your cornea, multiply that by the number of games in your season ticket package, and subtract the number of times the player has given you the cold shoulder at Fanfest. Then divide all of that by 7. So is this why Wes Helms has negative WAR? Professionally?
June 26, 201115 yr So, just a question, slightly off-topic. How does one calculate WAR? Unfortunately there's not one set formula but basically it attempts to measure by how much a player is better than a replacement level player. A replacement level player is a AAA / AAAA player. It takes into account hitting, baserunning and defense. It also includes a positional adjustment factor in which positions that are tough to play such as C, SS and CF get bonuses and positions that are easy to play like LF, RF and 1B get penalties. The positional adjustment is needed because if for example two players are exactly alike in hitting, defense and baserunning but one is a 1B and the other a Catcher obviously the Catcher is more valuable. Makes sense. Alright then. Thank you sir.
June 26, 201115 yr Hanley trade article. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trading-hanley-ramirez/ Trading Hanley Ramirez by Joe Pawlikowski - June 22, 2011 We all knew this day was coming. There was a notion that maybe this time it would be different; maybe with the new stadium in place the Marlins could afford to keep Hanley Ramirez and his rising salary. But even with that in mind his eventual trade seemed inevitable. It would be a tough sell, of course, as it is any time a team trades its franchise player. The current circumstances might make it a bit easier. The Marlins struggles lately are well documented. After a hot start that had them 10 games over .500 in late May, they’ve dropped 22 of their last 26 and currently sit in the NL East cellar. Things can only get better, but so much has gone wrong this season that it’s unreasonable to expect a full return to their early season performance. The team’s failures, combined with Ramirez’s own struggles, could make it easier for the Marlins to part ways with him and the remainder of his contract. It might not happen at the deadline, but it certainly could happen following this season. Buster Olney got the conversation started this morning with this tweet. Jeffrey Loria might love Ramirez, but he also loves not paying players a lot of money. Never in his tenure as Marlins owner has he paid a player $15 million, which is what Ramirez will earn next year. (He had signed Carlos Delgado to a contract that would exceed that milestone in its final year, but then traded him after the first year.) With $45.75 million already committed to five players in 2012, and with a number of players in arbitration, the Marlins very well could trade one of their higher priced players. As the highest priced one coming off what will almost certainly end with numbers below his established norms, Ramirez stands the best chance of having a new home in April, 2012. Let’s ignore for a second the question of whether the Marlins should trade Hanley. Given ownership’s track record, the question is largely moot. They have their own manner of operating, and unless the new stadium drastically alters it, signs point to them at least considering a Ramirez trade. If they were to put him on the market, they would certainly attract suitors. But what could they get in return? The first issue affecting a trade is Ramirez’s position. He has a career -9.1 UZR/150 at shortstop, and other defensive metrics rate him around the same level of futility. As Olney later tweeted, other teams believe that “Hanley is too big now to be [an] effective shortstop.� Of course, they could be saying that with the intent of driving down his price, but given his poor defensive marks the sentiment does make sense. Unless he can handle center field, that might be another reason for the Marlins to explore a trade. They have an up and comer in Matt Dominguez slated for third base, and then have young budding stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton in the corner outfield positions. Ramirez’s bat, at least at its peak, will play anywhere, so finding a team with a need at either third base or left field shouldn’t be much of an issue. The second issue is his performance relative to his contract. From 2012 through 2014 the Marlins owe Ramirez $46.5 million. That wouldn’t be a problem under normal circumstances, even if he moved off shortstop. Under the current circumstances, though, he’s not quite as valuable as when the Marlins signed him to an extension. After establishing himself as a .400+ wOBA player from 2007 through 2009, he dropped to .373 last year before completely falling off the cliff this year. There is time to recover, but even if he does his overall numbers will look poor in comparison to the standard he set. A trade, then, would amount to a bet by the acquiring team that Ramirez will return to form and provide elite numbers in the middle of the order. What would they be willing to surrender for that? Chances are it will be something less than what the Tigers trade for Miguel Cabrera, which amounted to their two top prospects. Two top-ten prospects would surely be included, and there could be a third. Even while teams are coveting their prospects more than in the past, it’s hard to see any team holding back on a trade that could net them a player such as Ramirez. The entire idea of trading Ramirez is premised on his return to form this season. If he goes on to produce a .400 wOBA from now through September, chances are he’ll have suitors lining up. If he doesn’t, the Marlins are in a tough position. Would they accept a smaller package of players in order to dump Ramirez’s salary? That’s not an easy question to answer in any case, but the alternative is to continue paying him $15 million per season for production that might not reach that level. At this point we can still expect a return to form by Hanley. Unfortunately, those expectations are lowered if he continues producing at a level below the baseline he set. This is a question we likely won’t have to revisit until the off-season. Given Ramirez’s performance so far this year, combined with with his relatively poor 2010, plus his positional challenges, chances are teams won’t be knocking on the Marlins door in July. After the season, though, there is a good chance that the Marlins listen to offers, even if Ramirez doesn’t return to form. Given the way the Marlins operate, and given the list of teams that would like to add Hanley, even at a left fielder, it could make for one of the better off-season story lines. So we just signed him to his contract with the plan of trading him next year no matter what. And given the fact that we're actually going to be bringing in money off of stadium sales next year as opposed to bringing in the zero we are right now has no bearing on payroll (which has been steadily increasing regardless since '06), right? Come on.
June 26, 201115 yr So, just a question, slightly off-topic. How does one calculate WAR? Take the square root of the surface area of your cornea, multiply that by the number of games in your season ticket package, and subtract the number of times the player has given you the cold shoulder at Fanfest. Then divide all of that by 7. So is this why Wes Helms has negative WAR? Professionally? All I know is that it explains why Gaby's WAR is negative 162.
June 26, 201115 yr I agree that the odds of Hanley being traded for awhile are low, just because of the stadium situation. If that wasn't an issue I'd certainly shop him, if we can get some decent offers. i don't agree with the stadium situation part of this comment. If you get away from what the media tells us what we think and actually talk to the fan base that attend the games you would see a different story. People are looking at his post contract numbers, his attitude, his "injuries", his attitude, his defensive prowess, his attitude, and have a totally different thinking of whether or not he should be traded. Get away from the online fan base and talk to the people that actually go to the games. They are the ones the FO eventually has to please. Not the ones that, for the past almost 2 decades, keep saying "I would go to the games, but (fill in the blank)...." Lolwat? The fans on here are the most devoted to this team. And, um, having no money in your bank account (see: students, college or high school) is a damn good excuse. And many of us live in Orlando, Tampa, Gainesville, Tallahassee or elsewhere. No excuses, lawyer boy. That's "law student man" to you, sir.
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