June 22, 201115 yr You never take anything off the table. But you've got to set an awfully high asking price for Hanley. We're talking Mike Stanton type of prospects. And considering that those barely exist, you hold on to him.
June 22, 201115 yr I think the Reds and Giants would be the most interested in Ramirez. I could see each of them making the Marlins a solid offer for him. The Reds could offer catcher Devin Mesoraco,SS Zack Cozart, 3B/OF Juan Francisco, OF Chris Heisey and lefty starter/reliever Matt Maloney. The Giants could offer up 1B/OF Brandon Belt, SS Brandon Crawford, 3B Conor Gillaspie, LHR Dan Runzler, OF Darren Ford and 2B/SS Emmanuel Burriss. I think either of those packages would get the job done for Ramirez and a reliever. Ramirez has been a bad clubhouse guy since the day he got to Miami but the Marlins put up with it because of the numbers he put up. This year though, it looks like Ramirez doesn't care. He has been lazy and it seems like he's staying up really late at night either counting all of his money or spending it.
June 22, 201115 yr If Ramirez produces like he did last season, he's still worth his contract. However, the problem is that is defense is poor enough that he needs to really stay in the mid .800 OPS range to be worth the money he is to be paid out for the rest of his contract.
June 22, 201115 yr I think that's poor usage of the WAR statistic. Why? Is there an issue with comparing the WAR of players of different positions? People do it all the time. I can see a problem of comparing pitchers with positions players. In that case, Hanley's 3.7 was tied for 48th among all positions players. According to baseball-reference, a 5.0 WAR player is an all-star and a 2.0 WAR player is a starter quality player. So I guess a 3.7 WAR player is between an all-star and a common starter... so a 3.7 WAR is good but not very good... and not worth $15 million a year.
June 22, 201115 yr i have faith the guy is gunna produce Same. The talent is still there. He's been plagued by a horrible BABIP rate, similar to Uggs in the first part of last year. Part of that may be the fact that he's not squaring the ball up as he used to, but still I believe Hanley can have a summer to remember. Hell, he's already hitting .500.
June 22, 201115 yr I think that's poor usage of the WAR statistic. Why? Is there an issue with comparing the WAR of players of different positions? People do it all the time. I can see a problem of comparing pitchers with positions players. In that case, Hanley's 3.7 was tied for 48th among all positions players. According to baseball-reference, a 5.0 WAR player is an all-star and a 2.0 WAR player is a starter quality player. So I guess a 3.7 WAR player is between an all-star and a common starter... so a 3.7 WAR is good but not very good... and not worth $15 million a year. Because if Hanley was playing a different position, you could easily assume that his WAR would look better. Also, a 3.7 WAR SS is a lot more valuable than, say, a 4 WAR 1B/corner outfielder.
June 23, 201115 yr I think that's poor usage of the WAR statistic. Why? Is there an issue with comparing the WAR of players of different positions? People do it all the time. I can see a problem of comparing pitchers with positions players. In that case, Hanley's 3.7 was tied for 48th among all positions players. According to baseball-reference, a 5.0 WAR player is an all-star and a 2.0 WAR player is a starter quality player. So I guess a 3.7 WAR player is between an all-star and a common starter... so a 3.7 WAR is good but not very good... and not worth $15 million a year. Because if Hanley was playing a different position, you could easily assume that his WAR would look better. Also, a 3.7 WAR SS is a lot more valuable than, say, a 4 WAR 1B/corner outfielder. I'm pretty sure this is wrong, because the "replacement" part of WAR compensates for the position played (higher/more runs (added for the replacement value of an) for SS than 1B, for example).
June 23, 201115 yr I think that's poor usage of the WAR statistic. Why? Is there an issue with comparing the WAR of players of different positions? People do it all the time. I can see a problem of comparing pitchers with positions players. In that case, Hanley's 3.7 was tied for 48th among all positions players. According to baseball-reference, a 5.0 WAR player is an all-star and a 2.0 WAR player is a starter quality player. So I guess a 3.7 WAR player is between an all-star and a common starter... so a 3.7 WAR is good but not very good... and not worth $15 million a year. Because if Hanley was playing a different position, you could easily assume that his WAR would look better. Also, a 3.7 WAR SS is a lot more valuable than, say, a 4 WAR 1B/corner outfielder. The positional adjustment component in the WAR calculation adjusts players' WAR for the value of playing different positions thus allowing you to compare players who play different positions. The positional adjustment for a SS and a 1B are +0.5 and -1.0, respectively, and Hanley's 3.7 WAR and the 1B's 4.0 WAR, in your example, already include the +0.5 positional adjustment for Hanley and the -1.0 adjustment for the 1B. I may be wrong but I don'think so.
June 23, 201115 yr That's not really what I meant. I meant that it's easier for an organization to find a 4 WAR 1B/corner outfielder than to magically find a ~4 WAR SS. Hanley would be really difficult to replace (assuming he goes back to being Hanley). Look at SS's last year; there are only about a handful of consistently productive SS's in the big leagues. And Hanley has, arguably, been the best one in the big leagues, aside from a couple of months this year. Also, Hanley's defensive #'s would probably look a lot better if he were playing LF (making his WAR look better), instead of SS; SS is a more demanding position.
June 23, 201115 yr Is it just me or is this article absurd? http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/30198613
June 23, 201115 yr Author Is it just me or is this article absurd? http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/30198613 Whats so absurd about it? Do you not like my day job?
June 23, 201115 yr Is it just me or is this article absurd? http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/30198613 Whats so absurd about it? Do you not like my day job? You really wrote that? Geez, what are the chances of that. Well if you did, all due respect, I just don't agree with the opinion your stating. Its like the Marlins are just waiting to get rid of Hanley like they did with Cabrera and I don't see that happening. Hanley is the everyday face of this franchise and despite the Fish's past history with getting rid of star players, the stadium is supposed to turn that around. I feel like the Marlins will hold their ground with Ramirez until the last minute of his contract because they're supposed to be establishing a fan base and maintaining those star players like Hanley and JJ. Bottom line, to trade Hanley will fuel those casual fans who say "The Marlins always trade away their good players." And I just don't see the FO doing that, especially with Hanley who can be as good as anyone in baseball despite his 2011 struggles.
June 23, 201115 yr Is it just me or is this article absurd? http://www.cbssports...297882/30198613 Whats so absurd about it? Do you not like my day job? It is a good topic for discussion. So do you know who writes for Marlinsdiehards? Is that person on this forum as well?
June 23, 201115 yr Author Is it just me or is this article absurd? http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/30198613 Whats so absurd about it? Do you not like my day job? You really wrote that? Geez, what are the chances of that. Well if you did, all due respect, I just don't agree with the opinion your stating. Its like the Marlins are just waiting to get rid of Hanley like they did with Cabrera and I don't see that happening. Hanley is the everyday face of this franchise and despite the Fish's past history with getting rid of star players, the stadium is supposed to turn that around. I feel like the Marlins will hold their ground with Ramirez until the last minute of his contract because they're supposed to be establishing a fan base and maintaining those star players like Hanley and JJ. Bottom line, to trade Hanley will fuel those casual fans who say "The Marlins always trade away their good players." And I just don't see the FO doing that, especially with Hanley who can be as good as anyone in baseball despite his 2011 struggles. Nah, didn't write it, but what WERE the chances of it popping up. I wish he would have flat out said Wright/Reyes for HanRam, although today he's showing some fire and heart, I dig it. More of that, and I'll definately turn around root for him more. One of the reasons I don't so much other then being a Marlins fan is he doesn't lead the league in "fire in his eyes". and now he throws out wells from his knees, one more week and I'll but a authentic HanRam jersey. Hopefully the fans there are letting him know his hustle is going noticed and is appreciated.
June 23, 201115 yr Trade Hanley Ramirez? ARE YOU INSANE! Hanley is growing from this, through adversity greatness overcomes
June 23, 201115 yr It's nice to see Hanley slowly coming out of his funk. Seems Trader Jack is having a positive influence on him.
June 23, 201115 yr That's not really what I meant. I meant that it's easier for an organization to find a 4 WAR 1B/corner outfielder than to magically find a ~4 WAR SS. Hanley would be really difficult to replace (assuming he goes back to being Hanley). Look at SS's last year; there are only about a handful of consistently productive SS's in the big leagues. And Hanley has, arguably, been the best one in the big leagues, aside from a couple of months this year. Also, Hanley's defensive #'s would probably look a lot better if he were playing LF (making his WAR look better), instead of SS; SS is a more demanding position. There are more 1B than SS with very high WARs but that doesn't mean they're easier to get. Using your example, if in 2010 Hanley had played LF and played it at a defensive +/- of 0 his WAR would have being 3.3. +3.7 WAR at SS -0.7 Bonus in the 3.7 for playing SS +0.8 Penalty in the 3.7 for playing poor SS -0.5 Penalty for playing LF ==== +3.3 Hanley in LF playing at a +/- of 0
June 23, 201115 yr Hanley trade article. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trading-hanley-ramirez/ Trading Hanley Ramirez by Joe Pawlikowski - June 22, 2011 We all knew this day was coming. There was a notion that maybe this time it would be different; maybe with the new stadium in place the Marlins could afford to keep Hanley Ramirez and his rising salary. But even with that in mind his eventual trade seemed inevitable. It would be a tough sell, of course, as it is any time a team trades its franchise player. The current circumstances might make it a bit easier. The Marlins struggles lately are well documented. After a hot start that had them 10 games over .500 in late May, they’ve dropped 22 of their last 26 and currently sit in the NL East cellar. Things can only get better, but so much has gone wrong this season that it’s unreasonable to expect a full return to their early season performance. The team’s failures, combined with Ramirez’s own struggles, could make it easier for the Marlins to part ways with him and the remainder of his contract. It might not happen at the deadline, but it certainly could happen following this season. Buster Olney got the conversation started this morning with this tweet. Jeffrey Loria might love Ramirez, but he also loves not paying players a lot of money. Never in his tenure as Marlins owner has he paid a player $15 million, which is what Ramirez will earn next year. (He had signed Carlos Delgado to a contract that would exceed that milestone in its final year, but then traded him after the first year.) With $45.75 million already committed to five players in 2012, and with a number of players in arbitration, the Marlins very well could trade one of their higher priced players. As the highest priced one coming off what will almost certainly end with numbers below his established norms, Ramirez stands the best chance of having a new home in April, 2012. Let’s ignore for a second the question of whether the Marlins should trade Hanley. Given ownership’s track record, the question is largely moot. They have their own manner of operating, and unless the new stadium drastically alters it, signs point to them at least considering a Ramirez trade. If they were to put him on the market, they would certainly attract suitors. But what could they get in return? The first issue affecting a trade is Ramirez’s position. He has a career -9.1 UZR/150 at shortstop, and other defensive metrics rate him around the same level of futility. As Olney later tweeted, other teams believe that “Hanley is too big now to be [an] effective shortstop.� Of course, they could be saying that with the intent of driving down his price, but given his poor defensive marks the sentiment does make sense. Unless he can handle center field, that might be another reason for the Marlins to explore a trade. They have an up and comer in Matt Dominguez slated for third base, and then have young budding stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton in the corner outfield positions. Ramirez’s bat, at least at its peak, will play anywhere, so finding a team with a need at either third base or left field shouldn’t be much of an issue. The second issue is his performance relative to his contract. From 2012 through 2014 the Marlins owe Ramirez $46.5 million. That wouldn’t be a problem under normal circumstances, even if he moved off shortstop. Under the current circumstances, though, he’s not quite as valuable as when the Marlins signed him to an extension. After establishing himself as a .400+ wOBA player from 2007 through 2009, he dropped to .373 last year before completely falling off the cliff this year. There is time to recover, but even if he does his overall numbers will look poor in comparison to the standard he set. A trade, then, would amount to a bet by the acquiring team that Ramirez will return to form and provide elite numbers in the middle of the order. What would they be willing to surrender for that? Chances are it will be something less than what the Tigers trade for Miguel Cabrera, which amounted to their two top prospects. Two top-ten prospects would surely be included, and there could be a third. Even while teams are coveting their prospects more than in the past, it’s hard to see any team holding back on a trade that could net them a player such as Ramirez. The entire idea of trading Ramirez is premised on his return to form this season. If he goes on to produce a .400 wOBA from now through September, chances are he’ll have suitors lining up. If he doesn’t, the Marlins are in a tough position. Would they accept a smaller package of players in order to dump Ramirez’s salary? That’s not an easy question to answer in any case, but the alternative is to continue paying him $15 million per season for production that might not reach that level. At this point we can still expect a return to form by Hanley. Unfortunately, those expectations are lowered if he continues producing at a level below the baseline he set. This is a question we likely won’t have to revisit until the off-season. Given Ramirez’s performance so far this year, combined with with his relatively poor 2010, plus his positional challenges, chances are teams won’t be knocking on the Marlins door in July. After the season, though, there is a good chance that the Marlins listen to offers, even if Ramirez doesn’t return to form. Given the way the Marlins operate, and given the list of teams that would like to add Hanley, even at a left fielder, it could make for one of the better off-season story lines.
June 23, 201115 yr Hanley trade article. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trading-hanley-ramirez/ Trading Hanley Ramirez by Joe Pawlikowski - June 22, 2011 We all knew this day was coming. There was a notion that maybe this time it would be different; maybe with the new stadium in place the Marlins could afford to keep Hanley Ramirez and his rising salary. But even with that in mind his eventual trade seemed inevitable. It would be a tough sell, of course, as it is any time a team trades its franchise player. The current circumstances might make it a bit easier. The Marlins struggles lately are well documented. After a hot start that had them 10 games over .500 in late May, they’ve dropped 22 of their last 26 and currently sit in the NL East cellar. Things can only get better, but so much has gone wrong this season that it’s unreasonable to expect a full return to their early season performance. The team’s failures, combined with Ramirez’s own struggles, could make it easier for the Marlins to part ways with him and the remainder of his contract. It might not happen at the deadline, but it certainly could happen following this season. Buster Olney got the conversation started this morning with this tweet. Jeffrey Loria might love Ramirez, but he also loves not paying players a lot of money. Never in his tenure as Marlins owner has he paid a player $15 million, which is what Ramirez will earn next year. (He had signed Carlos Delgado to a contract that would exceed that milestone in its final year, but then traded him after the first year.) With $45.75 million already committed to five players in 2012, and with a number of players in arbitration, the Marlins very well could trade one of their higher priced players. As the highest priced one coming off what will almost certainly end with numbers below his established norms, Ramirez stands the best chance of having a new home in April, 2012. Let’s ignore for a second the question of whether the Marlins should trade Hanley. Given ownership’s track record, the question is largely moot. They have their own manner of operating, and unless the new stadium drastically alters it, signs point to them at least considering a Ramirez trade. If they were to put him on the market, they would certainly attract suitors. But what could they get in return? The first issue affecting a trade is Ramirez’s position. He has a career -9.1 UZR/150 at shortstop, and other defensive metrics rate him around the same level of futility. As Olney later tweeted, other teams believe that “Hanley is too big now to be [an] effective shortstop.� Of course, they could be saying that with the intent of driving down his price, but given his poor defensive marks the sentiment does make sense. Unless he can handle center field, that might be another reason for the Marlins to explore a trade. They have an up and comer in Matt Dominguez slated for third base, and then have young budding stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton in the corner outfield positions. Ramirez’s bat, at least at its peak, will play anywhere, so finding a team with a need at either third base or left field shouldn’t be much of an issue. The second issue is his performance relative to his contract. From 2012 through 2014 the Marlins owe Ramirez $46.5 million. That wouldn’t be a problem under normal circumstances, even if he moved off shortstop. Under the current circumstances, though, he’s not quite as valuable as when the Marlins signed him to an extension. After establishing himself as a .400+ wOBA player from 2007 through 2009, he dropped to .373 last year before completely falling off the cliff this year. There is time to recover, but even if he does his overall numbers will look poor in comparison to the standard he set. A trade, then, would amount to a bet by the acquiring team that Ramirez will return to form and provide elite numbers in the middle of the order. What would they be willing to surrender for that? Chances are it will be something less than what the Tigers trade for Miguel Cabrera, which amounted to their two top prospects. Two top-ten prospects would surely be included, and there could be a third. Even while teams are coveting their prospects more than in the past, it’s hard to see any team holding back on a trade that could net them a player such as Ramirez. The entire idea of trading Ramirez is premised on his return to form this season. If he goes on to produce a .400 wOBA from now through September, chances are he’ll have suitors lining up. If he doesn’t, the Marlins are in a tough position. Would they accept a smaller package of players in order to dump Ramirez’s salary? That’s not an easy question to answer in any case, but the alternative is to continue paying him $15 million per season for production that might not reach that level. At this point we can still expect a return to form by Hanley. Unfortunately, those expectations are lowered if he continues producing at a level below the baseline he set. This is a question we likely won’t have to revisit until the off-season. Given Ramirez’s performance so far this year, combined with with his relatively poor 2010, plus his positional challenges, chances are teams won’t be knocking on the Marlins door in July. After the season, though, there is a good chance that the Marlins listen to offers, even if Ramirez doesn’t return to form. Given the way the Marlins operate, and given the list of teams that would like to add Hanley, even at a left fielder, it could make for one of the better off-season story lines. This is stupid... I dont care about Loria's track record, the opening of the ballpark in 2012 means Hanley is almost guaranteed to not be traded. The Marlins need Hanley to maintain the fanbase, to be the face of this team, to establish stability heading into the new park, and to be the catalyst on the field. If Hanley was going to be sent away before the new stadium opens, it would have already been done as it was done with guys like Uggla and Ross.
June 25, 201115 yr Yep, their star 3B and SS for a struggling SS. Opens up a glaring hole for them at 3B and right now, another one at SS all while they're still realistically in the playoff race. I'm sure they'd be interested.
June 25, 201115 yr Hanley trade article. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trading-hanley-ramirez/ Trading Hanley Ramirez by Joe Pawlikowski - June 22, 2011 We all knew this day was coming. There was a notion that maybe this time it would be different; maybe with the new stadium in place the Marlins could afford to keep Hanley Ramirez and his rising salary. But even with that in mind his eventual trade seemed inevitable. It would be a tough sell, of course, as it is any time a team trades its franchise player. The current circumstances might make it a bit easier. The Marlins struggles lately are well documented. After a hot start that had them 10 games over .500 in late May, they’ve dropped 22 of their last 26 and currently sit in the NL East cellar. Things can only get better, but so much has gone wrong this season that it’s unreasonable to expect a full return to their early season performance. The team’s failures, combined with Ramirez’s own struggles, could make it easier for the Marlins to part ways with him and the remainder of his contract. It might not happen at the deadline, but it certainly could happen following this season. Buster Olney got the conversation started this morning with this tweet. Jeffrey Loria might love Ramirez, but he also loves not paying players a lot of money. Never in his tenure as Marlins owner has he paid a player $15 million, which is what Ramirez will earn next year. (He had signed Carlos Delgado to a contract that would exceed that milestone in its final year, but then traded him after the first year.) With $45.75 million already committed to five players in 2012, and with a number of players in arbitration, the Marlins very well could trade one of their higher priced players. As the highest priced one coming off what will almost certainly end with numbers below his established norms, Ramirez stands the best chance of having a new home in April, 2012. Let’s ignore for a second the question of whether the Marlins should trade Hanley. Given ownership’s track record, the question is largely moot. They have their own manner of operating, and unless the new stadium drastically alters it, signs point to them at least considering a Ramirez trade. If they were to put him on the market, they would certainly attract suitors. But what could they get in return? The first issue affecting a trade is Ramirez’s position. He has a career -9.1 UZR/150 at shortstop, and other defensive metrics rate him around the same level of futility. As Olney later tweeted, other teams believe that “Hanley is too big now to be [an] effective shortstop.� Of course, they could be saying that with the intent of driving down his price, but given his poor defensive marks the sentiment does make sense. Unless he can handle center field, that might be another reason for the Marlins to explore a trade. They have an up and comer in Matt Dominguez slated for third base, and then have young budding stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton in the corner outfield positions. Ramirez’s bat, at least at its peak, will play anywhere, so finding a team with a need at either third base or left field shouldn’t be much of an issue. The second issue is his performance relative to his contract. From 2012 through 2014 the Marlins owe Ramirez $46.5 million. That wouldn’t be a problem under normal circumstances, even if he moved off shortstop. Under the current circumstances, though, he’s not quite as valuable as when the Marlins signed him to an extension. After establishing himself as a .400+ wOBA player from 2007 through 2009, he dropped to .373 last year before completely falling off the cliff this year. There is time to recover, but even if he does his overall numbers will look poor in comparison to the standard he set. A trade, then, would amount to a bet by the acquiring team that Ramirez will return to form and provide elite numbers in the middle of the order. What would they be willing to surrender for that? Chances are it will be something less than what the Tigers trade for Miguel Cabrera, which amounted to their two top prospects. Two top-ten prospects would surely be included, and there could be a third. Even while teams are coveting their prospects more than in the past, it’s hard to see any team holding back on a trade that could net them a player such as Ramirez. The entire idea of trading Ramirez is premised on his return to form this season. If he goes on to produce a .400 wOBA from now through September, chances are he’ll have suitors lining up. If he doesn’t, the Marlins are in a tough position. Would they accept a smaller package of players in order to dump Ramirez’s salary? That’s not an easy question to answer in any case, but the alternative is to continue paying him $15 million per season for production that might not reach that level. At this point we can still expect a return to form by Hanley. Unfortunately, those expectations are lowered if he continues producing at a level below the baseline he set. This is a question we likely won’t have to revisit until the off-season. Given Ramirez’s performance so far this year, combined with with his relatively poor 2010, plus his positional challenges, chances are teams won’t be knocking on the Marlins door in July. After the season, though, there is a good chance that the Marlins listen to offers, even if Ramirez doesn’t return to form. Given the way the Marlins operate, and given the list of teams that would like to add Hanley, even at a left fielder, it could make for one of the better off-season story lines. This is stupid... I dont care about Loria's track record, the opening of the ballpark in 2012 means Hanley is almost guaranteed to not be traded. The Marlins need Hanley to maintain the fanbase, to be the face of this team, to establish stability heading into the new park, and to be the catalyst on the field. If Hanley was going to be sent away before the new stadium opens, it would have already been done as it was done with guys like Uggla and Ross. Yeah, right, because they have such a great fan base right now. Why would they want to mess up something so great? Let's be honest here - Hanley is the only guy this team can trade right now and get someone or someones in return who are worth a damn. Bringing back this same team next year is, in my opinion, insanity. They don't have the pitching depth to compete, regardless. The Marlins have NO top tier pitching prospects in the minors...and none who appear ready (massive disappointments in guys like Sean West). I wouldn't be opposed to trading Hanley if they bring back pitching to help this ball club. We have Josh Johnson, an Anibal Sanchez who is having a good year and hopefully stays good, an inconstently but mostly bad Ricky Nolasco, the terrible Volstad, and the one year disaster Vazquez. So yes, bring Hanley back. Bring everyone back. Waste of another season, but hey, getting rid of players looks bad.
June 25, 201115 yr I agree that the odds of Hanley being traded for awhile are low, just because of the stadium situation. If that wasn't an issue I'd certainly shop him, if we can get some decent offers.
June 25, 201115 yr I agree that the odds of Hanley being traded for awhile are low, just because of the stadium situation. If that wasn't an issue I'd certainly shop him, if we can get some decent offers. i don't agree with the stadium situation part of this comment. If you get away from what the media tells us what we think and actually talk to the fan base that attend the games you would see a different story. People are looking at his post contract numbers, his attitude, his "injuries", his attitude, his defensive prowess, his attitude, and have a totally different thinking of whether or not he should be traded. Get away from the online fan base and talk to the people that actually go to the games. They are the ones the FO eventually has to please. Not the ones that, for the past almost 2 decades, keep saying "I would go to the games, but (fill in the blank)...."
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