He could simply just be making better contact. Even if his plate discipline isn't that much improved.

He could simply just be making better contact. Even if his plate discipline isn't that much improved.

 

 

.370 BABIP better?

So we're using Emilio Bonifacio as a way to make fun of Chris Coghlan? Really?

 

 

Beats using Jesus, amirite?

 

No, but seriously. We've got Coghlan as a back up if Bonifacio starts to stink up. I'm hoping at least one of them can put up decent production at CF.

I don't know. I'm not willing to pass a full judgement either way. Of course there are the statistics of the game, which I like. But there's also the observation.

 

Personally what I oberserved with Bonifacio was that when he was putting the ball in play, he wasn't swinging too hard or too soft or making weak contact. He had a lot more control over the ball past contact.

You can look up all of this stuff on Fangraphs.

 

I do think it's a bit more telling to look at 2009 (rather than 2010) vs. 2011. 2010 was weird because Bonifacio started off terribly (as if he didn't miss a beat from 2009), but then started to improve after being recalled from the minors.

 

Anyway, his contact numbers have been pretty much the same since 2009, but he is taking more pitches. 47.4% swing rate down to 40.8%. So he is utilizing better plate discipline.

I don't know. I'm not willing to pass a full judgement either way. Of course there are the statistics of the game, which I like. But there's also the observation.

 

Personally what I oberserved with Bonifacio was that when he was putting the ball in play, he wasn't swinging too hard or too soft or making weak contact. He had a lot more control over the ball past contact.

 

 

 

 

You know who is really good at that whole making good contract and having bat control thing, and is arguably just as fast as Bonifacio?

 

Ichiro.

 

His career BABIP is .351. He also consistently put up ISOs around .100, with multiple years above it. Whereas Bonifacio has one season near it, was between .050 and .060 before in the majors, and was below .080 in the minors. And a career .339 BABIP, which is obviously inflated by last year. It was around .330 prior.

 

So yeah, maybe Bonifacio can sustain a .370 BABIP. All it would require is for him to have better bat control and hit the ball harder than Ichiro.

 

Like I said, I'm not betting on him. It's not impossible that he can maintain all of this and avoid falling off the cliff again, I guess. But it's highly unlikely. But if you don't hit for power, and you strike out a lot, I'm not betting on you maintaining a .300 BA.

Well yes, but is there data like a spray chart for where he is hitting the ball I mean? I'd bet that if that info is out there you'd see the ball tending a little bit further out of the infield and a bit more towards the shallow outfield. And he was doing an excellent job of hitting the ball between the infielders, as well.

 

I don't think that much was a coincidence, although it could have been. Who knows. I enjoy statistics, but I don't know much about advanced baseball statistics so I try to stay away from stuff like that. So... take it easy on me with this :lol

For the most part, batters do not show a controllable ability to affect where the ball is hit. That's why BABIP is so prone to fluctuation.

 

Well, let me rephrase that. They control whether they hit GBs, FBs, LDs, etc. But whether it's hit between fielders or not is largely not something they are considered to have control of.

Well yes, but is there data like a spray chart for where he is hitting the ball I mean? I'd bet that if that info is out there you'd see the ball tending a little bit further out of the infield and a bit more towards the shallow outfield. And he was doing an excellent job of hitting the ball between the infielders, as well.

 

I don't think that much was a coincidence, although it could have been. Who knows. I enjoy statistics, but I don't know much about advanced baseball statistics so I try to stay away from stuff like that. So... take it easy on me with this :lol

 

I'm with you man..

 

He just looked different at the plate. He looked a lot more in control and smarter. He would fight off pitches and even lay off pitches that I never would have imagined him doing. I never wanted to see him at the plate in previous years but his change in approach made me much more confident in him. Obviously this observation isn't able to be backed by statistical help but I just thought he looked so much more like a batter than a swinger.

 

I think him going in to ST knowing he's the lead off hitter and knowing Ozzie is going to let him do his thing on the bases, and coming off such a strong year, his confidence will be sky high.

 

As far as the utility position.. don't kid yourself. Just because he may be the starting 3B or CF doesn't mean he won't play every where. He'll move to where the team needs him if injuries occur.

I feel very confident in saying that he looked different because balls were falling in.

He was also forcing pitchers to throw him more strikes to hit with his improved eye. I really do not believe it was a fluke year.

He was also forcing pitchers to throw him more strikes to hit with his improved eye. I really do not believe it was a fluke year.

 

 

He saw fewer pitches in the zone.

I never said he had more pitches in the zone, I'm saying he was forcing them to throw more strikes. Doesn't mean they did. Before, you didn't have to throw one within 2 feet of the plate and he'd be swinging.

And yet they threw more strikes to him before. Last year, he saw the lowest percentage of strikes in his career.

Are you saying strikes that would have been called or all strikes? Cause if it's the latter, then that's easily explainable with his improved eye.

It's pitches that were in the strike zone.

The thing worth considering with Bonifacio is that he is a very big + on the bases, statistically.

 

I also believe he'd develop into a + defensively over time if they just put him in CF.

 

Regarding his improvements as a hitter, I saw an article the other day that rated him as the best bunter (or one of the best bunters) in the game last year. Improving as a bunter is obviously big for him, considering his speed.

He was no better a bunter this year than '09.

He was no better a bunter this year than '09.

 

(Iowa, I'll respond to your post when I get a little more time.)

 

 

Where did you go to get that information about bunting? Just asking.

 

In comparison to '09, he obviously just hit the ball harder last year. (LD%)

He was no better a bunter this year than '09.

 

(Iowa, I'll respond to your post when I get a little more time.)

 

 

Where did you go to get that information about bunting? Just asking.

 

In comparison to '09, he obviously just hit the ball harder last year. (LD%)

 

It's all on fangraphs.

From what I saw, he became a lot better in sacrifice situations for bunting, as well as bunting for a hit. Not only that, he started slapping bunts over some third baseman. That's definitely something.

 

However, Bob deuce, if you have an exact link proving your points, would you be so kind as to link them? I'd politely shut up if they prove you right.

As far as the utility position.. don't kid yourself. Just because he may be the starting 3B or CF doesn't mean he won't play every where. He'll move to where the team needs him if injuries occur.

 

 

Right but the point is that... who is playing 3B and CF when he's not? sh*t, that's who. That's why you want him to be playing a million positions while you already have good players playing the positions he's not playing. It's not a matter of him fitting there or not. It's a matter of having 9 talented players down the lineup who can fill in 8 roles.

From what I saw, he became a lot better in sacrifice situations for bunting, as well as bunting for a hit. Not only that, he started slapping bunts over some third baseman. That's definitely something.

 

However, Bob deuce, if you have an exact link proving your points, would you be so kind as to link them? I'd politely shut up if they prove you right.

 

 

Most of the stuff I'm citing comes from Fangraphs.com.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4054&position=3B/OF#battedball

 

In 2009, his Bunt Hit Percentage (expressed as BUH%) was 42.5%. In 2010 it was 14.3%, however it was with only 14 attempts, so I'll chalk it up as an aberration. In 2011, it was 41.9%. Whether he was doing the things you say or not, the end result was an almost identical conversion rate on bunt attempts in an almost identical number of attempts. Yes, it was a very good rate. Of all major leaguers with at least 10 bunt hits, he was 4th, behind Michael Bourn, Peter Bourjos, and Danny Espinosa.

 

But it wasn't any better than in '09, when he was terrible as an overall hitter. So, clearly, bunting doesn't have anything to do with his success last year.

Alright, you got the bunting part. Still, though, you're shrugging off the observational aspect of things where we saw him look completely different at the plate. That's nothing you can put a stat on. Not to mention his base stealing ability improved a lot. More-so attributed to, as Rich and Tommy mentioned many times, the fear of being thrown out was gone, but he did go on better counts, that I saw.

Alright, you got the bunting part. Still, though, you're shrugging off the observational aspect of things where we saw him look completely different at the plate. That's nothing you can put a stat on.

 

 

But my argument is that his improvements, which do exist and are statistically significant, nonetheless are not representative of the jump he made. And that our collective perceptions of those improvements are colored by the fact that he had an extra hit or two drop in every week at an unsustainable rate.

 

I'm not arguing he didn't improve. I'm arguing that we're blowing those individual improvements out of proportion because it seemed like the total package improved so much. But the total package only seemed to improve so much because of unsustainable conversion rate on balls in play. Simply put, nobody sustains a .372 batting average on balls in play. It's just not a skill that you see carry from one season to the next in almost all players. Maybe he is an anomaly and can keep it going. But you never bet on an anomaly.

 

This is confirmation bias. We saw him play better, so we are coloring in everything else as a way to explain it. He made small but significant improvements across the board, and almost as importantly, did not seem to lose any skills while doing so. He didn't sacrifice for those small improvements. And those small improvements are why he has gone from not deserving of a major league roster spot to being a pretty valuable utility/sub player.

 

But the .372 mark on balls in play is causing people to overstate those small improvements to try to justify the large jump he made, when the fact of the matter is the large jump is, more likely than not, a mirage. When you focus on the actual repeatable skills he showed last year, you get an image of a really nice utility player, but a guy who is stretched thin as an everyday hitter.