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Emilio Bonifacio - Worth Trading?


mystikol87
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So, earlier today some posters on MLBTR on a Jose Reyes post said something like "if the Marlins would make Bonifacio available that would solve that problem!" I think they were referring to the SF Giants or something. One guy thought it would take Brandon Belt to kept Bonifacio, so I thought he was being sarcastic. Apparently he wasn't.

 

Anyway, while I simply can't see Bonifacio's value being that high - Belt is a power-hitting OF/1B who was BA's #23 prospect pre-2011, and he subsequently tore up AAA before his promotion - EB is coming off a season that is probably at or close to his offensive ceiling. His trade value is unlikely to ever be any higher than it is right now.

 

I have no idea what his trade value might be. He is, though, coming off of a season where he batted nearly .300, stole 40 bases, and put up over a 3 WAR. Maybe some FOs see him as a valuable leadoff hitter, especially the teams who need an SS/2B and can't afford a guy like Reyes.

 

Of course, the Marlins FO might think the same. But given the holes we have and that he doesn't fit seamlessly into any 1 of them - he's probably best at SS or 2B, and of course those spots are filled with Hanley and Infante - might we be able to spin him into a piece that actually fits the 2011 team better?

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I don't think so. (really, I can't believe I'm saying this considering what he did at the beginning)

 

Either way, we have holes at 3B/CF. He fills into any one of those. Hanley is probably not going healthy all year, either. He can play SS.

 

He's just convenient because he can play everywhere, and can be productive.

 

I don't think he'll repeat exactly what he did last year, but I don't think there's any reason to believe he won't be close to that again.

 

I think he's a keeper at the moment. (again, never thought I'd ever say that about him)

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He has more value to the Marlins right now than any other team at the moment (because of cost and positional need). That means that the return probably won't warrant trading him.

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but I don't think there's any reason to believe he won't be close to that again.

 

 

You don't think there's any reason?

 

I can think of at least two off the top of my head:

 

.372 BABIP

More home runs than he's hit in a season since 2006 (despite lowering his FB%)

 

Yeah, he's always going to have a higher BABIP than most players because of his speed, and yeah, he hits a lot of line drives. The same can be said of Michael Bourn and Juan Pierre, and neither of them can sustain BABIPs that high.

 

From 2000-2011 (the sample I chose because anything more would be impossible to sort through) the highest BABIP over 1,500+ PAs (Boni's at 1564, so that seems fair) are guys like Shin-Soo Choo, Derek Jeter, Joey Votto, Ichiro, and Matt Kemp. Those guys either hit the ball really hard, have great speed, or have great bat control, and in Ichiro's case and Jeter for a decent part of the decade, all three.

 

The point is, sustaining a high batting average as a slap hitter with poor bat control is really tough. More likely than not, we're looking at something closer to his career rate as his "true" skill, which is .339.

 

If he had had a .339 BABIP last year, we're looking at a .270/.334/.367. Certainly a useful player, with his speed and positional versatility, but probably stretched pretty thin as an every day player, and not really "close" to what he did last year. And he can't really go lower than that and still give us much value.

 

Especially if we work under the assumption that he's not hitting 5 home runs again. I'm not 100% sure how I feel about this one, because he did up his XBH% besides HRs pretty significantly. However, I'd personally take the under on 5 HRs for next year, considering he had hit 0 on 149 flyballs in the majors prior to this season.

 

If he does anything better than .270./.330/.350 next year, I'd probably be surprised.

 

And I don't disagree with your larger point that he has value to us for a number of reasons. I just think there's a pretty big reason think what he did last year was unsustainable.

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I'm not in any way, shape, or form for trading him now - he definitely made a believer out of me. However, as StantonisKing said, if someone is willing to overpay or give us more prospects [or even better, proven talent] than necessary, then sure, go for it.

 

I'm with Erick's thought, though, that he can plug a hole we have at least. I'd love him in center field, or shoot, maybe even right and move Big Mike to center. Just a thought. If we can get Aramis for third, or Reyes for short and move Hanley to third, then great, we'd have everything filled up. *shrug* Just some thoughts.

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He's better when he does play every day right now. Dosen't seem to bother him if he is moving around or playing at one specific position. Needs to be watched in ST and the start of the season to see if last year was his career year, or if it really has clicked for him. I'm really hoping it's the latter. I could care in the least how many dingers he hits. That's not his job. His is to get on base and make things happen. Pitchers and defenses are concentrating more on him than the player at the plate. He just has to stay away from those deep fly balls. Keep it on the ground and/or those short line drives. Picking his spots to hit those longer balls for the gaps is pretty much the key. Vs teams with "slower" OFers. I think if he plays smart and is coached smart he will put up at least as good of numbers as last year.

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I don't think so. (really, I can't believe I'm saying this considering what he did at the beginning)

 

Either way, we have holes at 3B/CF. He fills into any one of those. Hanley is probably not going healthy all year, either. He can play SS.

 

He's just convenient because he can play everywhere, and can be productive.

 

I don't think he'll repeat exactly what he did last year, but I don't think there's any reason to believe he won't be close to that again.

 

I think he's a keeper at the moment. (again, never thought I'd ever say that about him)

 

I mean, I would only consider trading him if somehow we had also filled (or were about to fill) either the hole at 3B or CF. But, the fact that he can do a decent job either filling in a hole or backing up a spot prone to injury (SS) does hold a lot of value.

 

I'd still trade him for Brandon Belt in a heartbeat haha

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No way I wouldn't trade Boni. He's super useful because he can play anywhere, every team needs a guy like that. And he's fast, speed has always been one of the trademarks of our championship runs. I like the idea of Boni at SS and moving Hanley to 3rd. I'd give Peterson a shot at winning the CF job, I really liked his arm out there.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again. I like having Bonifacio as a utility player. They're not that easy to come by, and sometimes arguably more valuable than an actual defined position starter.

 

 

If we had 8 real every day players, Bonifacio would be amazing.

 

I don't like him starting everyday though.

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I really hope Cogs can come back and have a good year. I don't think he deserves the grief he gets. If he was healthy the past two years I would not be giving him a pass. Let's not forget either that for the past two years before the 2011 season we were wishing Boni would pound sand and get lost.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again. I like having Bonifacio as a utility player. They're not that easy to come by, and sometimes arguably more valuable than an actual defined position starter.

 

 

If we had 8 real every day players, Bonifacio would be amazing.

 

I don't like him starting everyday though.

Why not? He proved this season he could do it.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again. I like having Bonifacio as a utility player. They're not that easy to come by, and sometimes arguably more valuable than an actual defined position starter.

 

 

If we had 8 real every day players, Bonifacio would be amazing.

 

I don't like him starting everyday though.

 

Well that's the true value of a great utility player. Except he's not a real utility player if you don't actually have every position covered.

 

What's ideal with Bonifacio is having somebody in front of him, but Bonfiacio still plays almost every day filling in for rest and injury at various different positions.

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He was arguably our team MVP last year. He batted .310 with a .376 OBP in the leadoff spot! How can anyone not wanting him starting every day?

 

His plate discipline improved greatly last year.. I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve on it even more and decrease his strikeout numbers. Combined with Ozzie being aggressive on the paths, I wouldn't be surprised to see him steal 70 bags and score 100 runs.

 

He's a big part of our team.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again. I like having Bonifacio as a utility player. They're not that easy to come by, and sometimes arguably more valuable than an actual defined position starter.

 

 

If we had 8 real every day players, Bonifacio would be amazing.

 

I don't like him starting everyday though.

Why not? He proved this season he could do it.

 

I'm not buying it.

 

Coghlan proved he could do it in 2009, right?

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Okay.. but from what i saw, he was a completely different player at the plate than any of the previous two years. I'd love to know if there was a stat for working the count because I was very impressed with his improvement there. A year ago I never thought that would have been possible for him.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again. I like having Bonifacio as a utility player. They're not that easy to come by, and sometimes arguably more valuable than an actual defined position starter.

 

 

If we had 8 real every day players, Bonifacio would be amazing.

 

I don't like him starting everyday though.

Why not? He proved this season he could do it.

 

I'm not buying it.

 

Coghlan proved he could do it in 2009, right?

Bonifacio proved he couldn't do it in 2009, right?

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He was arguably our team MVP last year. He batted .310 with a .376 OBP in the leadoff spot! How can anyone not wanting him starting every day?

 

His plate discipline improved greatly last year.. I wouldn't be surprised to see him improve on it even more and decrease his strikeout numbers. Combined with Ozzie being aggressive on the paths, I wouldn't be surprised to see him steal 70 bags and score 100 runs.

 

He's a big part of our team.

 

 

Well I think you're just not understanding the [or at least my] concept of a utility player.

 

He still should play every day. Ideally there are 6 positions Bonifacio can play. Assuming the full week is indeed 7 games on a 100% healthy team, you'd have all starters playing 6 of the 7 games and Bonifacio filling in for 6 of 7 games. Of course that's just theoretical and it wouldn't play out exactly like that because some players end up being able to play just about every game in the season... but injuries also happen.

 

Basically my little conclusion to the matter is that a utility player should be treated equally to a position starter. In which Bonifacio is an excellent utility player, but having him starting pretty much means we're at a lack of a utility player. So if all positions are treated equally inclusive of the utility player, Bonifacio fits best as the utility player. Find someone else to cover 3B and CF.

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Okay.. but from what i saw, he was a completely different player at the plate than any of the previous two years. I'd love to know if there was a stat for working the count because I was very impressed with his improvement there. A year ago I never thought that would have been possible for him.

 

 

In 2011, he averaged 4.03 pitches per plate appearance. In 2010, he averaged 4.08.

 

He swung at 3% fewer pitches outside of the zone, and swung at 3% of pitches overall.

 

So there was a slight improvement. But I don't think it was enough to say that's why he all of a sudden had a 100 point OPS jump.

 

Bonifacio proved he couldn't do it in 2009, right?

 

 

I'm not sure what your argument is.

 

The majority of his career, including the minors, has shown that Emilio Bonifacio is not an every day player. And last year, there was a lot flukey about what he did.

 

I'm betting 2011 was the anomaly for Boni's career, just like '09 has looked like the anomaly for Coghlan's.

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