38 minutes ago, FishFan95 said:

To put things into perspective, here is the win difference comparing Pythagorean win-loss and real wins since the new ownership took over.

2018: +5
2019: -4
2020: +5 (not even adjusting for the shorter schedule)
2021: -5

If the pattern continues, they will be about 4 or 5 wins better than expected. Which the projections say is 80 wins. But you play the games on the field rather than on paper.

So in 2021, does "-5" mean they had 5 FEWER wins than their Pythagorean win-loss, or the opposite?  Your last sentence threw me off - were you trying to say because of the yo-yo trend, in 2022, that's why they'll be better (i.e. +5)?

5 hours ago, rmc523 said:

So in 2021, does "-5" mean they had 5 FEWER wins than their Pythagorean win-loss, or the opposite?  Your last sentence threw me off - were you trying to say because of the yo-yo trend, in 2022, that's why they'll be better (i.e. +5)?

Basing everything off 2020's figure alone, -5 would mean fewer than Pyth, yeah. Our 2020 run differential was terribad, so the +5 would have to be wins 27-31 from that year.

6 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

To put things into perspective, here is the win difference comparing Pythagorean win-loss and real wins since the new ownership took over.

2018: +5
2019: -4
2020: +5 (not even adjusting for the shorter schedule)
2021: -5

If the pattern continues, they will be about 4 or 5 wins better than expected. Which the projections say is 80 wins. But you play the games on the field rather than on paper.

It's hard to count on that as a pattern (I know you know this), because it's dumb luck and pretty much a random bullpen loss as late inning appearances can skew the totals over a season. But, they should be better. 79.5 is probably a fair over/under right now, and a CF gets them 3+ wins easy.

They need a big time CF if they want to be a serious contender, OR, we all have egg on our face and Sanchez/Garcia are good enough defensively and everyone rakes and they get the last laugh. Given the clear indication they want Reynolds, Laureano, tried trading for Marsh last year, etc., I think we know where this is going but maybe they get lucky.

Or they just finally trade for someone. Which is likely more important with Floro and Sixto down as they can't be in the bullpen, so another notable arm would be really really helpful and Pitt, Balt, and Oak have a perfect reliever to trade.

You know, the minor league pitching isn't exactly hurting their stock this spring completely decimating everyone in their brief appearances. Maybe that gets some of these teams to back off Watson and/or multiple of Meyer/Cabrera/Eury. There is certainly a trade for one of those 3 SP, Bleday/Burdick, a juicy third piece like Sixto/Eder/Salas, and a juicy 4th piece like Salas/Fulton/Cappe/Morisette/McCambley. It's time to use the goods Marlins. The juice is worth the squeeze.

 

9 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

It's hard to count on that as a pattern (I know you know this), because it's dumb luck and pretty much a random bullpen loss as late inning appearances can skew the totals over a season. But, they should be better. 79.5 is probably a fair over/under right now, and a CF gets them 3+ wins easy.

They need a big time CF if they want to be a serious contender, OR, we all have egg on our face and Sanchez/Garcia are good enough defensively and everyone rakes and they get the last laugh. Given the clear indication they want Reynolds, Laureano, tried trading for Marsh last year, etc., I think we know where this is going but maybe they get lucky.

Or they just finally trade for someone. Which is likely more important with Floro and Sixto down as they can't be in the bullpen, so another notable arm would be really really helpful and Pitt, Balt, and Oak have a perfect reliever to trade.

You know, the minor league pitching isn't exactly hurting their stock this spring completely decimating everyone in their brief appearances. Maybe that gets some of these teams to back off Watson and/or multiple of Meyer/Cabrera/Eury. There is certainly a trade for one of those 3 SP, Bleday/Burdick, a juicy third piece like Sixto/Eder/Salas, and a juicy 4th piece like Salas/Fulton/Cappe/Morisette/McCambley. It's time to use the goods Marlins. The juice is worth the squeeze.

 

I honestly think their plan is to give Sanchez the first month of the season to see if he can play CF adequately.  If not, they make a move for Laureano.  Laureano can't play the first month anyway and he'll cost much less prospect wise. 

It will also gives some of our prospects that aren't in the top 100  time to burst out of the gates, and raise their trade value a little bit. I honestly prefer this than to trade away half the farm.  

If they are going to stick to their plan of making us a sustainable winner, that prospect pipeline is going to always have to be full.  

11 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

I honestly think their plan is to give Sanchez the first month of the season to see if he can play CF adequately.  If not, they make a move for Laureano.  Laureano can't play the first month anyway and he'll cost much less prospect wise. 

It will also gives some of our prospects that aren't in the top 100  time to burst out of the gates, and raise their trade value a little bit. I honestly prefer this than to trade away half the farm.  

If they are going to stick to their plan of making us a sustainable winner, that prospect pipeline is going to always have to be full.  

It works both ways, value can also fall. Or get hurt And that's my overall point - they are so loaded with years of control they can afford 3+ guys now, they can replenish the farm 22/23 as hardly anyone will need to come up. I can buy waiting 1+ month to make the move, but one needs to come.

I'm still at "get the pitchforks" level of scrutiny with Sanchez CF, not bolstering pen with at least 1 guy (especially if Cabrera is not in it), all prospects, and bottom 7 payroll. They can fix it though. Thankfully for them I haven't hit "fuck off forever" yet because Soler/other ones show some intent at least. Even if this process is slow for unknown reasons.

On 3/29/2022 at 9:12 AM, MarlinsLou said:

It's hard to count on that as a pattern (I know you know this), because it's dumb luck and pretty much a random bullpen loss as late inning appearances can skew the totals over a season. But, they should be better. 79.5 is probably a fair over/under right now, and a CF gets them 3+ wins easy.

Yeah. I think my main point was that being 5 wins over the run differential projection is just as likely as 5 loses over it so with the roster in place, I can definitely see 85 wins. Maybe a couple more thanks to the new RP additions. Not predicting that many. Fangraphs now has us at 83 wins. Not sure if they have factored in Scott and Sulser yet. I'd say 82 plus or minus 5 wins. 87 should be enough for a Wild Card I would think.

8 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

Yeah. I think my main point was that being 5 wins over the run differential projection is just as likely as 5 loses over it so with the roster in place, I can definitely see 85 wins. Maybe a couple more thanks to the new RP additions. Not predicting that many. Fangraphs now has us at 83 wins. Not sure if they have factored in Scott and Sulser yet. I'd say 82 plus or minus 5 wins. 87 should be enough for a Wild Card I would think.

They need a lot to go right to get to 87. (1) Jazz and (2) Sanchez 2.5+ WAR breakouts, (3) Soler 2019/post-2021 happens, (4) Garcia statcast breakout to 3.5+ WAR land, (5) Luzardo 3+ WAR breakout, (6) bullpen to get 5+ WAR again, (7) Anderson/Wendle stay healthy and get 4+ WAR between them, (8) Sandy/Rogers/Stallings can't miss significant time, (9) Pablo gets to 150+ IP, (10) Meyer/Cabrera come up and throw 100+ awesome innings.....

It's a big ask across the board to hit on nearly all of that, they'd need 8-9 of them to happen. But the upside is certainly there if lightning strikes.

Or - and hear me out on this - trade for a 4+ WAR CF, which is what Reynolds and Laureano are over 600/PA for their career, and your margin of error in needing those occurrences lowers dramatically.

Personally, I think 1 or 2, 5 (I like Luzardo a lot), and 6 or 10 likely happen above.... and then we're banking on health or Soler/Garcia having their career year. That's a reasonable ask for me and absent a $120m payroll and signing Correa, we can't ask for much more.