January 13, 200422 yr BTW, your replacement analysis is wholly inaccurate. see below pierre pierre same castillo castillo same fudge cabrera 2003 cabrera lowell 2004 lowell choi 2003 lee conine 2003 conine agone 2003 agone castro 2003 If you look at the batting order this way you see why it is lacking. One player has hit 30+ Hr's in a season and it was lowell. Conine' career best is 26 and the next best is agone at 18 hr's. Hey anything is possible, but if this team, as is, wins it all it will be a bigger underdog then last year.
January 13, 200422 yr "taken seriously" Please! It is not like we are replacing these guys with texeria and blalock. These guys are minor legue prospects that going into this year some consider to be AAAA players. I do think they will be better than that but to assume that choi and castro are anything close to lee and fudge is just ridiculous. I do not have a problem with our pitching but we will have serious trouble scoring runs this season.
January 13, 200422 yr Let's look at your comparison of the Angels 2003 and your prognosis of their problems: Start with #2. Did 'K-Rod' (stupid nickname) have a sophmore slump? His stats in 2002 5.2IP 13K/2BB 0.00ERA. 2003 86IP 95K/35BB 3.03ERA. Hardly. #3. Lets follow Ramon Ortiz here: 2002 217IP 162K/68BB 15-9 3.77ERA. 2003 180IP 94/63 16-13 5.20. Now, his ERA went up, but in 2002 he gave up 91ER but in 2003 104ER. Not that much of a difference. And he won 1 more game and lost 4 more. But he still improved over his win total from the previous year. He gave his team a chance to win, no matter what the final stats say. And #1. I really hope you werent talking about Eckstein - because he hardly had a banner year in the large scope of things. And without doing a thorough analysis of their roster (because I have other things to do), I will assume you are talking about other hitters, like Erstad. But what really hurt Anaheim, I think, was that they stood pat on personel. They didnt lose anyone, but didnt try to acquire anyone. They had a miracle year in 2002 and were expecting the same results with same personnel. Expecting another miracle. I dont think we are expecting any miracles here. Remember, this was a team LAST YEAR that was supposed to win 90+ games. And I am not talking about Samson's predictions, but based on the personnel we had last year. We got that done - albeit in dramatic fashion. And if you compare last year's roster with this year's, it looks remarkably different. I think this change and mix will only benefit the Marlins - as they can expect some different results from same players, but different elements are also in the equation - like Benitez, Neu, Choi, Castro, Conine to name a few. Geez, you guys are either to high on this team or too low. Chill... i don't want to get hung up on stats here, since that wasn't the heart of my argument, but just to defend my stance a little: re: K-Rod (agreed, stupid nickname) - he barely pitched in the 2002 regular season, so it's unfair to compare those stats to his 2003 regular season stats. his postseason stats in 2002, however, were: 1.93 ERA, 5-1 record, 28 K's in 18.7 innings. That's what i was referring to - that was what carried them to the 2002 WS, and that's what i'm saying he did not reproduce in 2003. re: Ramon Ortiz - in 2002 he had 162 Ks, a BAA of .230, and a WHIP of 1.18. In 2003 he had 94 Ks, a BAA of .287, and a WHIP of 1.57. And both seasons, he started the same amount of games. That's a pretty serious dropoff. re: Eck - perhaps not the best example of what happened to the Angels, but he hit .293 with 60+ RBI and 100+ runs in 2002, and hit .250 with 30 RBI and 59 runs scored in 2003. however, all of this aside, you've captured my point in it's essense with your final comment. the Angels faltered not because their players weren't good enough in 2003, but b/c they assumed that every player on their team could do in 2003 as good or better than they did in 2002. My concern is that we're taking the same tactic. I know Vlad was a pipe dream, and Pudge is gone for good, and i'm not even sure which FA i'd like to see us get....i guess i just wanted to point out to the people who seem so cocky about our roster right now and scoff at the notion of Mondesi or Payton that maybe we need them more than you think.
January 13, 200422 yr not a fan of the 2003 World Series champions who last year no one (except Ramp) said it was possible for the Fish to make it to the post season, let alone win it all. :mellow: *cough* (read quote below)
January 13, 200422 yr Tswift, i think your prognstication is a little more positive than mine. We lost a ton of talent and did not replace that talent. Let's look at that "ton of talent" lost & whether it's been replaced or not. 1. Pudge. They did everything possible to retain Pudge, you can hardly fault them there. Castro has been pursued by several teams over the past year or two, and it's time to see what he can do. Remember we were all prepared to start 2003 with him as the starting catcher. Why is it different now? Result: While they won't hit .300 (or bat 3rd obviously), Castro + Redmond will approach Pudge's RBI numbers and production. 2. Juan Encarnacion. He was on the bench at the end of the season if I remember correctly. Conine takes his spot & while he won't steal 25 bases & probably will hit fewer homers, he can still produce RBIs in the middle of the order. Plus he's got better plate discipline, if you buy that stuff. Enc's .313 OBP is below average. We certainly weren't going to be paying 3-4 million to a guy to be a 4th outfielder. Result: Replaced. 3. Urbina & Looper. Armando Benitez is an acceptable replacement for either one of these. I agree that we still need another arm for middle/late inning relief, and I expect we'll see someone signed eventually. For what it's worth, Boog Sciambi was on the radio the other day & stated flat out that Benitez will put up better numbers next year than the Urbina/Looper combo. We'll see if that's true, but that's a pretty good endorsement IMO. Keep in mind that it was just Looper for the first half of the season. Result: Incomplete. Benitez is a good start, I doubt they're finished. 4. The scraps. Todd Hollandsworth, Vladimir Nunez, Armando Almanza, Andy Fox, Rick Helling. I'm sure no one's mourning the loss of these guys. Banks, Neu, Chad Fox, these guys are all capable replacements. Result: Replaced. 5. Derek Lee. Okay, I'll give you this one. They've replaced him with an unproven guy that had high hopes as a minor leaguer with the Cubs. He hasn't had enough time in the bigs yet to judge whether he can do the job or not, but there's certainly no reason to give up on him before he's even gotten a real shot. Result: Likely a sizeable drop in production here. 6. Mark Redman. I liked Big Red a lot & was totally in favor of keeping him. That being said, 15 wins is probably a reach to expect from him most years. Plus if/when AJ comes back in the rotation, suddenly you're paying 3 or 4 million for someone to get sent to the bullpen. (Hopefully by that point the bullpen will be set anyway.) Result: Replaced eventually. This hinges all on when & how AJ's return works out. Once he's back pitching well in the rotation, Redman's loss is covered. So for all of that talent they lost, when you consider their replacements (Conine, AJ, Castro, Benitez, Fox) the situation isn't as bad as it looks, and IMO there's no reason to panic.
January 13, 200422 yr We will compete this year trust me. TSwift, you forgot the Mets. They defiently improved by getting Cameron and Matsui. They have a good lineup just not enough pitching.
January 13, 200422 yr Tswift, i think your prognstication is a little more positive than mine. We lost a ton of talent and did not replace that talent. What are you talking about? Fudge replaced with Castro Lee replaced with Choi Encarnacion replaced with Cabrera Hollandsworth replaced with Conine Redman replaced with Burnett(?) Urbina replaced with Benitez Looper replaced with Fox Castro will replace Fudge offensively for the most part and be very solid defensively. Of course, he is not necessarily a future HOF like Fudge, but hardly a weak link. Choi will not replace Lee right away, at least not this year I think it is safe to say. But this is baseball, and who really knows? We dont need Choi to be great to win, in fact, we didnt need Lee to be great to win last year either. In fact, we dont need anyone to be great to win ball games. We just need to be consistent on each day. And sure, we probably are not as special as last year's team, but this is still a damn good team. And each replacement is either very close to who left or an improvement. I think Encarnacion down that list (above) is a huge improvement at each position. So, where is this 'ton of talent' we lost? You forgot: Andy Fox replaced with Damion Easily
January 13, 200422 yr The offseason is not over yet, and I really wish the Marlins make a key move or two. I'm really hoping for a Maddux and/or a solid 4th OF that can contribute. In addition, additional pen help is a must so that's not on the hoping category. Now, with all the good value out there on Free Agency (some at basement prices) why not make some moves now? rather than giving up a lot of our FARM talent to get veterans like Uggie and Conine at the middle of the year. if we aren't in contention by July then we can move some of those veterans and get talent in return.
January 13, 200422 yr A big result of our success last year was starting pitching. For the frist time in a long time, pitchers got injured but the production didn't drop off. This was primarily due to an incredible stretch of pitching from Willis that absolutley nobody could have predicted and ace like preformance from Redman which dropped off the second half of the season. Everything you guys are doing is assuming health all around. Thats a tough assumption to make. Last year the bad health got compensated by a little luck in the form of Willis and Cabrera. You can't expect that sort of thing to happen every year. The problem is injuries will happen but once again we consider going into the season without depth based on the luck we had. That is why I feel a couple of signings would be great. Depth. Whats the harm in adding more depth? Plus Im also in agreement with those who say the team we have right now, even assuming healthy, is not as comepitive as it needs to be. Its a stretch to replace two proven veterans with two inexperienced players who havent shown anything yet. Adding another hitter could only help.
January 13, 200422 yr Look everybody has a right to their opinion but to say that there is a minimal drop off from fudge to castro is ignorant. Did you guys watch the playoffs. Just because castro is supposed to be good doesn't make him the clutch hitting and outstanding defensive player that fudge was.
January 13, 200422 yr not a fan of the 2003 World Series champions who last year no one (except Ramp) said it was possible for the Fish to make it to the post season, let alone win it all. Wow bandwagons coming out of nowhere to talk s***..
January 13, 200422 yr not a fan of the 2003 World Series champions who last year no one (except Ramp) said it was possible for the Fish to make it to the post season, let alone win it all. Wow bandwagons coming out of nowhere to talk s***.. he's not a bandwagoner, he is a Reds Fan
January 13, 200422 yr Look everybody has a right to their opinion but to say that there is a minimal drop off from fudge to castro is ignorant. Did you guys watch the playoffs. Just because castro is supposed to be good doesn't make him the clutch hitting and outstanding defensive player that fudge was. It's also wasy to miss the fact that numbers-wise Pudge had by most accounts his worst season in about 10 years in most categories during the regular season. Is throwing out base stealers still considered part of a catcher's defense? Because I think he had his worst % of runners thrown out in his entire career. No one can deny what Pudge did in the postseason. It was inhuman. He totally delivered when it counted in those playoff games. And no one expects Castro to be able to deliver clutch hits like Pudge did late in the season. If you're talking about intangibles, then sure we have no idea whether Castro can be that kind of player. But based on stats alone, batting near the bottom of the order, I think he can deliver RBIs. And what else can you ask from your catcher? There aren't very many Pudge-Piazza types in the game. Besides, unless you're paying someone 7 or 8 million, how do you expect to replace that type of player anyway? --- Flying Mollusk, I will agree with that. I'm making my predictions based on people being healthy, & that's just impossible to forsee. If someone vital goes down with a big injury, I'd hope the front office has the means to go out & acquire a player but I have my doubts. Unfortunately, depth is one of the risks small-budget teams are saddled with. If we can't even pay Redman 3 million then I have my doubts whether they're planning on getting extra arms & bats...
January 13, 200422 yr During the regular sesaon fudge hit .340 with runners on and .375 with runners in scoring position. To compare lowell, who i think is pretty clutch, hit .289 with runners on and .302 with runners in scoring position. Conine was .260 and .251 respectively. On a promising note Cabrera was .329 and .375 in his limited regular season at bats. The point is you can not get rid of your #3 hitter (most clutch) and replace him with castro as your #8 hitter and continue the run from last year. This is why we were al drooling over Vlad.
January 13, 200422 yr I still dont think that choi is ready but maybe I am wrong. I just don't like him but maybe he will change my mind as the season goes along. Anyway the marlins should make atleast two more signings. saurbeck for the bullpen and then a first basemen or if none available get a outfielder and put conine at first. We must make moves. We can be champs again. I know it. Just have to be smart and we have to be on the ball. Also can I get a list of available first basemen please?
January 13, 200422 yr Author I still dont think that choi is ready but maybe I am wrong. I just don't like him but maybe he will change my mind as the season goes along. Anyway the marlins should make atleast two more signings. saurbeck for the bullpen and then a first basemen or if none available get a outfielder and put conine at first. We must make moves. We can be champs again. I know it. Just have to be smart and we have to be on the ball. Also can I get a list of available first basemen please? i agree with your post,trust there are alot that wont but once the season gets going and we have the same team that we have right now people will start to see that damn we should have got this guy and damn we should have got that guy,but by then it will be to late to sign anyone worth getting and will have to again trade talent for one year guys...i still think we should get at least 1 more guy in the pen to work the seventh inning or a lefty specialist...1 more thing the marlins have to get someone that can play first or OF because Choi is a good player but not ready to play everyday and i know someone will write how can u say when he hasnt been given a chance yet,hey i hope the man does hit 320. and hit 20HR's and 80+ rbi's but its not going to happen...and last MR.Abe Nunez ...the man cannot hit major league pitching...i saw he tore up the winter league but hey who cant hit pepe hernandez and luis felipe hernandez gonzales perez...trust me Mr.beinfest sign a bench player and a pitcher you wont be sorry...
January 13, 200422 yr The point is you can not get rid of your #3 hitter (most clutch) and replace him with castro as your #8 hitter and continue the run from last year. Says who?
January 13, 200422 yr pepe hernandez.......pretty funny. also let me get a list of FA that are 1st basemen.
January 13, 200422 yr During the regular sesaon fudge hit .340 with runners on and .375 with runners in scoring position. To compare lowell, who i think is pretty clutch, hit .289 with runners on and .302 with runners in scoring position. Conine was .260 and .251 respectively. On a promising note Cabrera was .329 and .375 in his limited regular season at bats. The point is you can not get rid of your #3 hitter (most clutch) and replace him with castro as your #8 hitter and continue the run from last year. This is why we were al drooling over Vlad. We certainly will try. Like you pointed out, Cabs has very favorable numbers in 'clutch' situations, which makes him a great fit for #3 hitter. Then you slide Castro in there at #7/#8 and you have a solid offense that is comparable to last year.
January 13, 200422 yr We certainly will try. Like you pointed out, Cabs has very favorable numbers in 'clutch' situations, which makes him a great fit for #3 hitter. Then you slide Castro in there at #7/#8 and you have a solid offense that is comparable to last year. That's what I was thinking. He kind of proved his own point.
January 13, 200422 yr Let's look at your comparison of the Angels 2003 and your prognosis of their problems: Start with #2. Did 'K-Rod' (stupid nickname) have a sophmore slump? His stats in 2002 5.2IP 13K/2BB 0.00ERA. 2003 86IP 95K/35BB 3.03ERA. Hardly. #3. Lets follow Ramon Ortiz here: 2002 217IP 162K/68BB 15-9 3.77ERA. 2003 180IP 94/63 16-13 5.20. Now, his ERA went up, but in 2002 he gave up 91ER but in 2003 104ER. Not that much of a difference. And he won 1 more game and lost 4 more. But he still improved over his win total from the previous year. He gave his team a chance to win, no matter what the final stats say. And #1. I really hope you werent talking about Eckstein - because he hardly had a banner year in the large scope of things. And without doing a thorough analysis of their roster (because I have other things to do), I will assume you are talking about other hitters, like Erstad. But what really hurt Anaheim, I think, was that they stood pat on personel. They didnt lose anyone, but didnt try to acquire anyone. They had a miracle year in 2002 and were expecting the same results with same personnel. Expecting another miracle. I dont think we are expecting any miracles here. Remember, this was a team LAST YEAR that was supposed to win 90+ games. And I am not talking about Samson's predictions, but based on the personnel we had last year. We got that done - albeit in dramatic fashion. And if you compare last year's roster with this year's, it looks remarkably different. I think this change and mix will only benefit the Marlins - as they can expect some different results from same players, but different elements are also in the equation - like Benitez, Neu, Choi, Castro, Conine to name a few. Geez, you guys are either to high on this team or too low. Chill... i don't want to get hung up on stats here, since that wasn't the heart of my argument, but just to defend my stance a little: re: K-Rod (agreed, stupid nickname) - he barely pitched in the 2002 regular season, so it's unfair to compare those stats to his 2003 regular season stats. his postseason stats in 2002, however, were: 1.93 ERA, 5-1 record, 28 K's in 18.7 innings. That's what i was referring to - that was what carried them to the 2002 WS, and that's what i'm saying he did not reproduce in 2003. re: Ramon Ortiz - in 2002 he had 162 Ks, a BAA of .230, and a WHIP of 1.18. In 2003 he had 94 Ks, a BAA of .287, and a WHIP of 1.57. And both seasons, he started the same amount of games. That's a pretty serious dropoff. re: Eck - perhaps not the best example of what happened to the Angels, but he hit .293 with 60+ RBI and 100+ runs in 2002, and hit .250 with 30 RBI and 59 runs scored in 2003. however, all of this aside, you've captured my point in it's essense with your final comment. the Angels faltered not because their players weren't good enough in 2003, but b/c they assumed that every player on their team could do in 2003 as good or better than they did in 2002. My concern is that we're taking the same tactic. I know Vlad was a pipe dream, and Pudge is gone for good, and i'm not even sure which FA i'd like to see us get....i guess i just wanted to point out to the people who seem so cocky about our roster right now and scoff at the notion of Mondesi or Payton that maybe we need them more than you think. But like I pointed out - the difference between the 2002/2003 Angels and the 2003/2004 Marlins is that the Marlins are a very different looking team in a lot of respects. And if you actually looked at the rosters objectively, you will find we replaced those players we lost. HotCorner did an excellent job of examining this point, although I think we replaced Encarnacion with Cabrera and H-Worth/LF platoon with Conine. This team is solid on offense. The only weakness I see is Lee > Choi, right now. But that could just as easily be offset by Castro for Fudge. In the regular season, Fudge had a great average .297, but had only 16 HRs. The end difference in hits wont be that much and Castro has shown an ability to hit with guys on base. But right now, there isnt the sample size to demonstrate this. You will just have to wait. I really think Castro will replace Fudge - slip in AVG but improve in power. Castro plays good D too, just wait, you'll see. He has a very strong arm to throw out runners too, although not as gutsy as Fudge. But who is?
January 13, 200422 yr A big result of our success last year was starting pitching. For the frist time in a long time, pitchers got injured but the production didn't drop off. This was primarily due to an incredible stretch of pitching from Willis that absolutley nobody could have predicted and ace like preformance from Redman which dropped off the second half of the season. Everything you guys are doing is assuming health all around. Thats a tough assumption to make. Last year the bad health got compensated by a little luck in the form of Willis and Cabrera. You can't expect that sort of thing to happen every year. The problem is injuries will happen but once again we consider going into the season without depth based on the luck we had. That is why I feel a couple of signings would be great. Depth. Whats the harm in adding more depth? Plus Im also in agreement with those who say the team we have right now, even assuming healthy, is not as comepitive as it needs to be. Its a stretch to replace two proven veterans with two inexperienced players who havent shown anything yet. Adding another hitter could only help. Sure, we are assuming that we will be healthy this season. And why shouldnt we? You would be hard-pressed to find a team that suffered as much injury to their starting staff as we did last season. We lost our #1 starter for the season, lost our #2 for part, our #3 was off and on, our ace at the time (Redman) had to miss time - the only guys not to get injured were Pavano (who I thought WAS going to get injured) and Willis. Depth IS nice, but a luxury. That is why we have a farm system and a player development program in the first place. We may have to dig into the farm to fill the gap for a time. We got lucky last year, but Cabs and Willis have proven they are star material. They have been tempered by a playoff run. You cant help but see good things down the road for these guys. We should expect this team to be healthy this year. This team couldnt suffer anymore than it did last year, and we still won 91 games. Imagine if this team was healthy and together ALL season long...oh wait, they will be - this year. That goes for the offense too. Face it, this team is good enough to contend.
January 13, 200422 yr The only weakness I see is Lee > Choi, right now. But that could just as easily be offset by Castro for Fudge. Damn Skippy. *Points to avatar* *Applauds Jonnylons for two great posts*
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