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aww what are they waiting for


El Guapo

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what are the marlins waiting for...all the good FA are getting signed and we still need another bat and at least 1 more proven releiver....i mean people keep saying dont worry they know what there doing but as they keep knowing what there doing there isnt going to be anybody decent to sign....do u guys agree with me or should i just relax and trust that the guys up stairs are going to take care of buisness...

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we have a solid team as it is right now

 

another starting pitcher (maddux) or position player (kendall) or bullpen help would put this team at the top of the nl east but it isn't totally necessary

 

expect the starting pitchers to have great years and look for something special to happen with the new talent that has been brought in (choi, neu, BENITEZ)

 

and expect a great year from cabrera..which is something we didnt have all of last year

 

what will be the most interesting to see is how well Castro can do

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Here's my thought on the matter:

 

I'd expect the team as it is right now to win about 85 games, that doesn't include intangibles like what Willis did when he was called up, Conine vs. the Phils etc.

 

I think we should make a signing to address our bullpen because there are still some guys out there who can help us significantly (Sauerbeck, Burkett, even Mike Williams and Jose Mesa as 7th inning guys for $500k). The reason I think we should sign a guy now is that players added during the season like we did with Urbina and Conine are costly (we gave up essentially all of our farm system trade bait, and even one "untouchable," Batista, to get those two). If we can get someone for just money at this point, it's better than getting someone for money AND prospects during the season.

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I'm with jrgti33. Payroll is now at 51-52 mill. But 15 mill of that is for players not on the roster (Pudge = 7 mill; Hampton = 8 mill), isn't that right? That puts active roster payroll at 36 mill?!?! Pretty stingy for world champs.

yawn i think we need to get over ourselves a little bit here. yes, we are World Champs, and yes, we have a lot of AWESOME players on our team this year, many of whom stand to be even better next year than they were last year. but i point you to the 2003 Anaheim Angels. they put the same exact team on the field in 2003 as they put in 2002, and in 2002 they won the WS, and in 2003 they ended up 14 games out. Why?

 

1) batters who in 2002 had career years came down to Earth

2) rookies who had carried them through the postseason had sophmore slumps

3) starting pitchers who were reliable in 2002 suddenly looked very average

 

sound familiar to anyone? Pavano, Sea Bass, Cabrera....these guys were amazing for us last year, but no more amazing than Ramon Ortiz, David Eckstein, and K-Rod were for the Angels in 2002. but since baseball is baseball, these guys had off years in 2003, and because the Angels had not made any contingency plans for what to do if these guys faltered, the team was never even in the race.

 

now obviously, i'm not looking to pee on the parade here - i love the Marlins, and i think we've got a good of a shot as anyone to win the NL East this year, and after that, who knows. but my point is this - the Angels figured out last year that if you're not going forward, you're going backwards. Obviously, we have studs that are not going to falter, but I'm scared that we are relying very heavily on a lot of players either repeating their best career years (Pavano, Penny, Sea Bass) or on players who need to have their best year ever in order to help us (Choi, Castro). Don't you think that we should get someone in here like a Modesi or a Maddux jor even a Mondesi ust in case one of those guys falters?

 

ps - go Fish. :D

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If I were in charge, the three guys I'd look at long and hard for the pen are Scott Sauerbeck, Mike Williams, and Jose Mesa. I know we witnessed Williams and Mesa choke first hand, but if you make them 7th inning guys, the pressure is off them. Benitez and Fox are there for the late innings.

 

Also, what about Graeme Lloyd? He'd be a decent lefty for the pen.

 

And is Jose Lima still a FA? ESPN.com has him listed as one, but they also have Jeff Nelson and Clemens listed as well. He'd be a nice guy for this team; the Pro is perfect for him, and he brings A TON of energy. He'd be a fan fav for sure...

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I'm with jrgti33. Payroll is now at 51-52 mill. But 15 mill of that is for players not on the roster (Pudge = 7 mill; Hampton = 8 mill), isn't that right? That puts active roster payroll at 36 mill?!?! Pretty stingy for world champs.

"active player roster at 36 mill" ... Stated that way, the figure is appalling.

There are certain realities about fielding a serious contender. I don't think we're there yet.

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Clearly this team is not nearly as good as last year. I think the point above about prospects and money vs. just money is a good one. There is a chance that in the next couple of weeks some intersting players could become available via trade (for good value). At this point the free agent market is very limited.

 

It is becoming clear that the marlins are not going nuts to put a team on the field that can repeat. They may be looking at having beckett and burnett (100%) at the top of the rotation with a stadium in the bag in 2005.

 

Just my opnion.....

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Clearly this team is not nearly as good as last year. I think the point above about prospects and money vs. just money is a good one. There is a chance that in the next couple of weeks some intersting players could become available via trade (for good value). At this point the free agent market is very limited.

 

It is becoming clear that the marlins are not going nuts to put a team on the field that can repeat. They may be looking at having beckett and burnett (100%) at the top of the rotation with a stadium in the bag in 2005.

 

Just my opnion.....

This team will be competitive in the NL East. Lowell, Cabrera, Conine and Gonzalez should post similar numbers to last year (or improved numbers). Choi and Castro are big question marks, but if Nunez shows up and is able to play, he may be insurance if Choi struggles (Conine moves to first).

 

As far as pitching goes, Beckett's new found dominance will more than make up for any dropoff in production from Willis/Pavano, but Penny'll be just as effective, and the jury's still out on who our fifth starter'll be.

 

I'm not saying we're the favorites to win it all again, but I feel confident in this team, and while everyone in the NL East except Philly didn't really improve, and Montreal and Atlanta got markedly worse, I like our chances of being in it come September, and that's all we can really ask for...

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"what are they waiting for?" by that i thought you were a disgruntled Reds fan posting on the wrong part of the forums...not a fan of the 2003 World Series champions who last year no one (except Ramp) said it was possible for the Fish to make it to the post season, let alone win it all.

The only major weakening is at Catcher as First Base remains to be judged.

 

Benitez is not a "game blower", New Yorkers expect everyone to close like Rivera, and since Trevor Hoffman got hurt Rivera is the only guy that perfect.

 

What I would like to see the Marlins do would be to sign a reliable workhorse starting pitcher as insurance. By default that will improve the bullpen when AJ returns.

 

Also, a trade for a sound OF bat would be nice as it would remove any questions regarding Choi. One of the last contract year type guys would rock.

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Tswift, i think your prognstication is a little more positive than mine. We lost a ton of talent and did not replace that talent.

What are you talking about?

 

Fudge replaced with Castro

Lee replaced with Choi

Encarnacion replaced with Cabrera

Hollandsworth replaced with Conine

Redman replaced with Burnett(?)

Urbina replaced with Benitez

Looper replaced with Fox

 

Castro will replace Fudge offensively for the most part and be very solid defensively. Of course, he is not necessarily a future HOF like Fudge, but hardly a weak link. Choi will not replace Lee right away, at least not this year I think it is safe to say. But this is baseball, and who really knows? We dont need Choi to be great to win, in fact, we didnt need Lee to be great to win last year either.

 

In fact, we dont need anyone to be great to win ball games. We just need to be consistent on each day. And sure, we probably are not as special as last year's team, but this is still a damn good team. And each replacement is either very close to who left or an improvement. I think Encarnacion down that list (above) is a huge improvement at each position. So, where is this 'ton of talent' we lost?

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I'm with jrgti33.? Payroll is now at 51-52 mill.? But 15 mill of that is for players not on the roster (Pudge = 7 mill; Hampton = 8 mill), isn't that right?? That puts active roster payroll at 36 mill?!?!? Pretty stingy for world champs.

yawn i think we need to get over ourselves a little bit here. yes, we are World Champs, and yes, we have a lot of AWESOME players on our team this year, many of whom stand to be even better next year than they were last year. but i point you to the 2003 Anaheim Angels. they put the same exact team on the field in 2003 as they put in 2002, and in 2002 they won the WS, and in 2003 they ended up 14 games out. Why?

 

1) batters who in 2002 had career years came down to Earth

2) rookies who had carried them through the postseason had sophmore slumps

3) starting pitchers who were reliable in 2002 suddenly looked very average

 

sound familiar to anyone? Pavano, Sea Bass, Cabrera....these guys were amazing for us last year, but no more amazing than Ramon Ortiz, David Eckstein, and K-Rod were for the Angels in 2002. but since baseball is baseball, these guys had off years in 2003, and because the Angels had not made any contingency plans for what to do if these guys faltered, the team was never even in the race.

 

now obviously, i'm not looking to pee on the parade here - i love the Marlins, and i think we've got a good of a shot as anyone to win the NL East this year, and after that, who knows. but my point is this - the Angels figured out last year that if you're not going forward, you're going backwards. Obviously, we have studs that are not going to falter, but I'm scared that we are relying very heavily on a lot of players either repeating their best career years (Pavano, Penny, Sea Bass) or on players who need to have their best year ever in order to help us (Choi, Castro). Don't you think that we should get someone in here like a Modesi or a Maddux jor even a Mondesi ust in case one of those guys falters?

 

ps - go Fish. :D Let's look at your comparison of the Angels 2003 and your prognosis of their problems:

 

Start with #2. Did 'K-Rod' (stupid nickname) have a sophmore slump? His stats in 2002 5.2IP 13K/2BB 0.00ERA. 2003 86IP 95K/35BB 3.03ERA. Hardly.

 

#3. Lets follow Ramon Ortiz here: 2002 217IP 162K/68BB 15-9 3.77ERA.

2003 180IP 94/63 16-13 5.20. Now, his ERA went up, but in 2002 he gave up 91ER but in 2003 104ER. Not that much of a difference. And he won 1 more game and lost 4 more. But he still improved over his win total from the previous year. He gave his team a chance to win, no matter what the final stats say.

 

And #1. I really hope you werent talking about Eckstein - because he hardly had a banner year in the large scope of things. And without doing a thorough analysis of their roster (because I have other things to do), I will assume you are talking about other hitters, like Erstad.

 

But what really hurt Anaheim, I think, was that they stood pat on personel. They didnt lose anyone, but didnt try to acquire anyone. They had a miracle year in 2002 and were expecting the same results with same personnel. Expecting another miracle.

 

I dont think we are expecting any miracles here. Remember, this was a team LAST YEAR that was supposed to win 90+ games. And I am not talking about Samson's predictions, but based on the personnel we had last year. We got that done - albeit in dramatic fashion. And if you compare last year's roster with this year's, it looks remarkably different. I think this change and mix will only benefit the Marlins - as they can expect some different results from same players, but different elements are also in the equation - like Benitez, Neu, Choi, Castro, Conine to name a few.

 

Geez, you guys are either to high on this team or too low. Chill...

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Johny lyons,

 

I have no problem with fans that want to be positive but I think you are not looking at things objectively. First of all, you can not assume every young player is going to break out like Cabrera. (Choi and Castro) In addition, the rule of thumb for Thommy John surgery is one year til you are throwing again and two years til you are 100% of what you were.

 

As far as my reference to losing a ton of talent, see the list below:

 

Fudge (first ballot hall of famer)

Lee (Gold Glove, 30 HR's, not so clutch)

encarnacion (0 errors 20+ Hr's)

uuu (solid closer with nasty stuff and demeanor)

bloop (solid setup guy that throws 95+)

Redman (statistically possibly the marlins best starter last year)

o guillen (young energetic coach that got threw to agone)

 

All this talent was replaced with:

Castro (may be in jail, could put up decent numbers but wont touch fudges defense- not even close)

Choi (Good talent but alot of scouts have soured on him)

Benitez (throws hard but has been considered a nut on three different teams - O's, Mets and Yanks)

 

I am a huge marlin fan but lets be realistic here. Our pitching if healthy can keep us close during the first half but our offense is probably bottom five in the NL.

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Johny lyons,

 

I have no problem with fans that want to be positive but I think you are not looking at things objectively. First of all, you can not assume every young player is going to break out like Cabrera. (Choi and Castro) In addition, the rule of thumb for Thommy John surgery is one year til you are throwing again and two years til you are 100% of what you were.

 

As far as my reference to losing a ton of talent, see the list below:

 

Fudge (first ballot hall of famer)

Lee (Gold Glove, 30 HR's, not so clutch)

encarnacion (0 errors 20+ Hr's)

uuu (solid closer with nasty stuff and demeanor)

bloop (solid setup guy that throws 95+)

Redman (statistically possibly the marlins best starter last year)

o guillen (young energetic coach that got threw to agone)

 

All this talent was replaced with:

Castro (may be in jail, could put up decent numbers but wont touch fudges defense- not even close)

Choi (Good talent but alot of scouts have soured on him)

Benitez (throws hard but has been considered a nut on three different teams - O's, Mets and Yanks)

 

I am a huge marlin fan but lets be realistic here. Our pitching if healthy can keep us close during the first half but our offense is probably bottom five in the NL.

I for one have felt that Burnett shouldnt be back this year. I dont want to rush him back, and at best put him in the pen. But that screws with his pitching approach and I dont want that.

 

I dont expect Willis to have the same success as last year, but this guy is not a slouch either. He has dominating stuff, and if he can be consistent, he can build on last year's success - likely not with the same numbers.

 

And Cabrera HARDLY had a banner year last year. He batted, what, .267 with 12HRs and had a lot of K's. But if you project that over a season...

 

Castro has got immense power. He could hit Fudge's 16 HRs BEFORE the all star break. And he is solid on D, and yes, not Fudge.

 

But to overlook the actual replacements that have been made is why you are being overly negative here. Yes, we lost some very good talent, but it was REPLACED is my point. You have to at least address that in any post if you are going to be taken seriously. You have yet to do that...and I dont see any reason why we cant expect to win 85-90 games right now.

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